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Sunday, June 5, 2011

Supremacist thinking, race, religion conspiracy theories of threat: same actors, same old script!




Sharing The Nation By Zainah Anwar

There should be zero tolerance against those who abuse race and religion to promote supremacist thinking and incite hatred.

WHOSE voice should prevail? Those who perpetually see race and religion as being under threat and demand that every person who believes, thinks, behaves, dresses, acts and opines differently should be “fixed” through state-sanctioned operations (such as boot camps or rehabilitation camps), punished under the Internal Security Act, the Sedition Act, the Official Secrets Act, the Printing Presses and Publications Act, the Syariah Criminal Offences Act, or just denounced and demonised as enemies and traitors of race, religion and country?

Or those who envision a democratic and just future, where rights are recognised on the basis of citizenship rather than just race, religion, or sex?

The choice is obvious to most of us, the good citizens of Malaysia who love this country and are determined to be resilient, resourceful, and open-minded to face the challenges and realities of the 21st century.
Healthy beat: Even the innocuous fun of poco-poco is considered a threat. — Filepic
 
But there are demagogues in our midst who are relentless in their abuse of race and religion to stir up fear and conflict.

For what purpose? To remain in power so that their privileges and entitlements are entombed forever?

Could this escalating rhetoric of racial and religious-based recriminations be a last ditch do-or-die effort to maintain business as usual, never mind the consequences to the nation or even their own party?

Is it because the elections are coming and they remain myopic in their belief that race and religion will win them the battle?

So they endlessly manufacture many more new threats – from the innocuous fun of poco-poco to the relativism of post-modernism, from calling Muslims opposed to Umno and PAS unification as “pengkhianat Islam” (traitors of Islam) to accusing Christians of plotting to turn Malaysia into a Christian state!

Even the outdated “communists under every bed” threat is now being thrown into the cauldron of dangers besieging the Malay community. All this, of course, to add to the existing long list of threats that include pluralism, liberalism, feminism, secularism, kongsi raya, open house, tomboys and yoga.



If this is merely tiresome, one can just laugh it off. Alas, it is not. It is corrosive to the body politic and well-being of the nation. It foreshadows a downhill slide into ethnic and religious conflict. It contributes to the record outflow of capital and talent that the country is suffering now.

It has got to stop!

And yet, for years, a mainstream daily newspaper continues to be the conduit for such inflammatory, unverified, provocative stories with front page banner headlines, giving it authority and legitimacy with seeming support from the powers that be.

The Government cannot talk about 1Malaysia, economic transformation, government transformation, talent recruitment or high income country on the one hand, and on the other legitimises, whether directly or indirectly, the use of race and religion to incite fear for short-term political gain.

It is hard to understand why these same actors are trotting out the same old script that cost the Barisan Nasional government so dearly in 2008. It’s as if nobody has learnt any lessons from that political tsunami.

Since attacking liberal Muslims and ungrateful Chinese did not work in 2008, they have amended the script to add Christians and the so passé communists. Aren’t they creating more enemies instead of making friends?

Ashutosh Varshney, the Indian political scientist based in the United States, spent 10 years examining three pairs of Indian cities, one riot prone and the other peaceful, in confronting the same contentious ethnic issue.

In his seminal work Ethnic Conflict and Civil Life: Hindus and Muslims in India, he establishes three findings significant to Malaysia.

First, the role of the press. In violent cities, instead of investigating rumours, often strategically planted and spread, the press simply printed them with abandon. In studying peaceful Calicut and violent Aligarh over the Babari mosque agitation, he finds Aligarh’s local newspapers printing inflammatory falsehoods, while Calicut’s newspapers neutralised rumours after investigating and finding them unfounded.

When I was a journalist 20 years ago, my editors would not print any news – and certainly not on the front page – with alarming headlines without authoritative verification. Now some mainstream newspapers act just like irresponsible bloggers who turn rumours into instant fact, intentionally to damage reputations and serve partisan interests.

Second, Varshney finds that whether violence or peace prevails depends on the role politicians play in polarising citizens along ethnic lines. Politicians who seek to polarise Hindus and Muslims for the sake of electoral advantage can tear at the fabric of everyday engagement among citizens.

He finds that conflict erupts into violence when organised gangs are not just involved, but are also protected by politicians, thus escaping prosecution under the law for their criminal actions.

Third, and most importantly, he finds that trust built on inter-ethnic social and civic ties is critical for peace. Inter-ethnic associations in cities, such as trade unions, business associations, teachers, lawyers, doctors, non-governmental organisations and some cadre-based political parties, are decisive in preventing violence because they build bridges and manage tensions in times of ethnic conflict.

Varshney finds that a synergy emerges between communally integrated civic organisations and local arms of government. This leads to better monitoring and preventive action as these relationships nip rumours, small clashes and tensions in the bud. In the end, polarising politicians either do not succeed or eventually give up trying to provoke and engineer communal violence.

The lessons for us are clear. The sources of threat to our society and the sources of strength for bridge-building in our multi-ethnic society are clear for all to see. Thank God, again and again, many fair-minded Malaysian citizens have not risen up to bite the bait thrown out by the demagogues.

The point is our diversity, our pluralism, had always been our strength. We have a proud and long history of the races and religions living and working together. Malaysia was truly Asia. Now this rings hollow, meant only to trot out in tourism campaigns. Why is our pluralism now a threat? On what basis? Where’s the evidence? Who benefits from such a projection of threat?

What makes it mind-boggling is why these supremacist groups are given so much face and space? Think of the number of meetings held by those searching for solutions to ethnic, religious and regional conflicts that have been stormed by these “thugs”? Those of us meeting peacefully indoors, sharing our concerns and exploring possible solutions were the ones forced to abandon our meetings because they posed “a threat to public order”!

It is high time the Government unequivocally adopt a zero-tolerance policy against such agent provocateurs who abuse race and religion to promote supremacist thinking and incite hatred.

Our leaders must seriously come to grips with our new political realities and work harder to bring the message of change to its grassroots leaders. Some others do not even feel they need to be protected – by anyone. They feel 40 years of affirmative action are enough for them to stand on their own two feet and compete on their own strength and merit. What they want now is just simple good governance to enable them to thrive and for everyone to be given a fair chance to reach their full potential.

I wish these demagogues would spend their time and energy finding real solutions to real threats. For a start, how about chewing on the fact that a Merdeka Center survey found that 70% of Malays feel that the main threat to the Malay political position in the country is corruption among Malay leaders. Not the Chinese, Christians, communists, liberalism, pluralism, feminism, post-modernism, poco-poco, or yoga.

Can we please not waste any more time and emotion on imagined enemies and threats before we reach a point of no return? I know problems exist. But can we please search for solutions through rational dialogue and mutual respect, using verifiable facts, data and analysis instead of inflammatory pronouncements and conspiracy theories?

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Embrace China, says Najib; US not restricting China & to keep military prence in Asia: Gates




Embrace China, says Najib

By NELSON BENJAMIN nelson@thestar.com.my

SINGAPORE: China should be engaged in a positive and constructive manner and not seen as an adversary, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said.

He said Malaysia was fully convinced that the rise of China would be a benign influence in the region. “We do not feel threatened by China.

Guiding hand: US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates gesturing as he meets Najib on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue yesterday. — Reuters
 
 
“It will be a mistake to see China as an adversary and if we treat China in a positive and constructive manner, they will also respond to us positively.

“I can tell you that the Chinese have a good memory and if you do them a good deed, they will remember for a long time,” he said at the 10th International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue here yesterday.

Citing an example, Najib said Malaysia was the first South-East Asian country to establish diplomatic ties with China during his late father Tun Abdul Razak Hussein’s tenure and until today, it was still being talked about in the country.

“I am optimistic that besides China, we can also develop a meaningful and constructive relationship with India,” he said, adding that trade with these two countries had been on the rise.

“In Asean we do not have to make a choice.

“We do not want to go back to a Cold War mentality and we look forward to engagements and relationships not just with India and China but others, including the United States,” he added.

On the build-up of conventional arms in the region especially involving navies, Najib downplayed it as a modernisation effort saying that this was part of efforts by countries as their economies got stronger and wealthier.

He said there would be more to lose if countries were engaged in conflicts while there was more to gain if everyone continued to engage constructively.

Earlier in his speech, Najib reiterated Malaysia’s role as a responsible global citizen with actions to help ensure global peace and stability.

“We will continue to play our part and show that our commitment is not merely rhetorical but is backed up by action,” he said, touching on the peacekeeping efforts by Malaysian soldiers, the deployment of female doctors to Afghanistan, Malaysia’s fight against terrorism and the intermediary role it played in southern Philippines.

He also touched on Malaysia’s readiness to be deployed to Bahrain to play a role if invited by the people there.

He also added that there was a new set of asymmetric and non-traditional security challenges involving human trafficking, drug smuggling and nuclear proliferation.
Najib also called for border disputes among regional countries to be resolved in the spirit of mutual respect and cooperation.

Also at the event, Najib outlined six strategies to maintain peace and stability in the region and called for the setting up of a new Rapid Response Team with the ability to respond to disasters.
“The way forward is through dialogue, engagement and consensus,” he added.



Gates: US not restricting China 

By Li Xiaokun (China Daily)

SINGAPORE / BEIJING - Outgoing US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Thursday that the United States was not trying to "hold China down" and doubts that Beijing aims to match Washington's military power. 

"We are not trying to hold China down. China has been a great power for thousands of years. It is a global power and will be a global power," he said. 

Gates was speaking en route to the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's most prominent security conference, scheduled for June 3 to 5 in Singapore, where he is scheduled to meet his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie on the sidelines of the meeting. 

Liang is the most senior Chinese official to attend the security conference. 

Gates added: "The Chinese have learned a powerful lesson from the Soviet experience, and they do not intend to try and compete with us across the full range of military capabilities." 

He was alluding to the ultimately fatal economic burden that the Soviets assumed in trying to keep up with Washington in the Cold War arms race. 

Gates said he is very satisfied with the progress of Washington's relationship with Beijing, but sees room for improvement between the two militaries. 

"Under those circumstances, there is value in a continuing dialogue by the two sides of just exactly what our concerns are, what our issues are and how we might alleviate the concerns on both sides," he said. 

Gates added that Washington will continue to build relationships with its allies in Asia despite potential budget restrictions and that Washington plans to remain a reliable partner in the region. 

"I would say, if anything, these pressures put a premium on multilateral responses to problems," he said. "Whether it's humanitarian assistance or disaster relief, we see opportunities with a number of countries out here, including China." 

It is Gates' seventh trip to Asia in the past 18 months and his final overseas trip before he retires on June 30. US President Barack Obama has named CIA Director Leon Panetta to replace him. 

Gates also said the reshaping of much of Obama's national security team - including the selection of Gates' own successor and the controversial search for a new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - was at least a year in the making. 

In his first extended comments on the process, Gates said the key consideration was preserving what he called a sense of teamwork among the top national security aides as the administration winds down the US military role in Iraq and fashions a plan for turning over security responsibilities in Afghanistan by 2014. 

Obama announced on Monday that he would nominate General Martin Dempsey, who had just taken over on April 11 as army chief of staff. Gates said he would not discuss publicly his own recommendation to Obama for the joint chiefs selection. 

Li Qinggong, deputy secretary-general of the China Council for National Security Policy Studies, said Gates is likely to make full use of his last overseas visit as defense secretary to meet Chinese military leaders and give another push to military ties between Washington and Beijing. 

"Gates, unlike his predecessor, has always been positive on improving military ties with China," Li said.
Although he might talk about a Chinese military "buildup" and "threats", the underlying theme of his speech and his meeting with Liang will be positive, Li added.
As for the change of US defense leaders, Li said it is unlikely to impact the improving ties between the two militaries. 

"US leaders, including Obama, Hillary Clinton and the new military leaders all know that military ties with Beijing have become more and more important for overall ties," he said. 

However, potential disputes still linger on regional hotspots, such as Taiwan, the South China Sea and US exercises in Northeast Asia, said Li. 

AP, AFP contributed to this story. 
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US to keep military presence in Asia: Gates 

By Ma Liyao and Zhou Wa (China Daily)
Neighbors appreciate China's efforts in maintaining regional security
US to keep military presence in Asia: Gates
Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (right) shakes hands with former US defense secretary William Cohen at the Asia-Pacific security forum in Singapore on Saturday. [Photo/Agencies]

Singapore / Beijing - Despite its fiscal troubles, the US will maintain a "robust" military presence across Asia, backed up by new high-tech weaponry, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said.

Gates made the remark during a speech on the second day of the Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. 

The US military will expand its presence by sharing facilities with Australia in the Indian Ocean and deploying new littoral combat ships in Singapore, where it has regular access to naval facilities, he said.

"Gates' comments were made as assurance to the allies of the US in the region that its policies will continue after his impending retirement," said Major General Luo Yuan, a senior researcher with the Academy of Military Sciences.

Gates will step down by the end of June, and the current director of the CIA, Leon Panetta, has been nominated to replace him.

Worries about the ability of the US to maintain its military presence have been raised as President Barack Obama faces mounting political pressure to deal with Washington's $1.4 trillion budget deficit and more than $14 trillion in debt. 

Gates said that he would take a $100 bet that "in five years, the US influence in this region will be as strong, if not stronger than now". 

The US remains as the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region, and its influence over the region will continue in the next five years, said Yuan Peng, director of the American Studies Center at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing.

In his speech, Gates also said the key to solving the maritime issues in the Southeast Asia is to provide a "peaceful mechanism" that will not intensify tensions. 

"We should not lose any time before strengthening these mechanisms of dealing with the claims. Clashes serve nobody's interests," he said in answer to questions about the South China Sea issues.

China's stance on these issues remains that they should be solved bilaterally, between China and other coastal countries. 

Confidence is needed that the parties concerned can solve the problems themselves through a peaceful bilateral mechanism.

The regional disputes should be solved by countries in this region, Luo said, adding that a third party, who is not familiar with the history and culture in the region and has a different mode of thinking, can make things more complicated .

During meetings with Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, China's neighbors voiced appreciation on Saturday for Beijing's efforts toward regional security and international assistance.

Kim Kwan-jin, defense minister of the Republic of Korea, appreciated China's work at maintaining stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula and thanked China for its help in protecting South Korean merchant ships in waters off Somalia from pirate attacks in February.

Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and Wayne Mapp, defense minister of New Zealand, thanked China for its rapid aid to their countries when they were struck by major earthquakes this year.

Liang also met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, who is in charge of the country's national defense affairs and military industries. 

Gates called for all countries to recognize the potential problems caused by cyber attacks, saying that the US defense system is under attack "all the time".

The Pentagon is working to identify hackers, who will be responded to in kind or with traditional offensive action, Gates said. "We take the cyber threat very seriously and we see it from a variety of sources, not just one or another country," he said. 

"China is one of the biggest targets of cyber attacks," said Luo, adding that China always tries to work with other countries to fight against such attacks. 

AFP contributed to this story.

US dollar cracking at the seams




WHAT ARE WE TO DO By TAN SRI LIN SEE-YAN

MY last columns dealt with the international monetary system (IMS), specifically why the world monetary order is in disorder, and why free movement of capital underpinning the IMS is increasingly being challenged.

Today's column concerns the basic anchor of the IMS the reserve currency role of the US dollar and why it will give way to rapidly rising pressures towards multipolarity, that is, the concurrent pulling of forces emanating from more than two growth centres.

In 20 years, the World Bank expects the newly emerging BRIIKs (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and Korea) to join China as new drivers of growth towards a multipolar world. Today, none of their currencies is used for reserve accumulation, invoicing or exchange rate anchor. The status quo remains centred on the US dollar. But change is in the air.

In 1991, the G3 (US, euro-zone and Japan) accounted for 49% of world trade, and the BRIICKs (BRIIKs plus China) only 9%. By 2010, the G3's share had fallen to 29%, while the BRIICKs' share rose beyond 30%. Without doubt, the post-war structure dominated by advanced nations is in the midst of fundamental change. Globalisation and the rapid growth of the emerging market economies (EMEs) are bound to translate into greater global economic power. It's just a matter of time.

Multipolarity

We are witnessing the cracking of the global institutions created in 1945. They are still unadjusted to the growing weight of the EMEs, reflecting reluctance by the United States and euro-zone to come to terms with a world they no longer dominate. It is also a manifestation of uneasiness in China, India and Brazil that the management of their domestic economy, long the jurisdiction of internal prerogative, now matters to the rest of the world.

This is understandable. The founding of the Bretton Woods institutions (IMF and World Bank) after the devastation of the Great Depression and WWII set in motion an era of stability at a time when the US was unchallenged in the global economy. In international finance, this post-war order began to fall apart in the 1970s as the US economy floundered, the dollar tanked, Europe was rebuilt and Japan asserted itself.

The move towards multipolarism was, however, interrupted in the 1980s and 1990s by the Soviet Union's collapse, the euro-zone's indigestion after swallowing a re-united Germany, and the Asian currency crisis. The US was thrust into the forefront to lead. But, the home-made US financial crisis in the 2000s in the face of rapidly rising EMEs, brought the era of US dominance to an end.

Yet, neither the US, euro-zone nor China has the capacity and clout to manage global problems. Happily, the G-20 came along to replace the G7, stumbling on to a mutually beneficial co-operation. Prof Barry Eichengreen's reference in history of another scenario is scary: “The decades following WWI were marked by the inability of rising or declining powers to stabilise the world economy or create functioning global institutions; the result was the Great Depression & WWII.”

A definite shift is taking place, driven by the rising power of the emerging BRIICKs, together representing more than one-half of global growth in 14 years. According to the World Bank report, Multipolarity: The New Global Economy, the EMEs will grow at 4.7% per annum up until 2025, which is double the rate of the advanced nations (2.3%). The implications are far-reaching:
  • the balance of global growth and investment will shift to the EMEs;
  • this shift will lead to boosts in investment flows to nations driving global growth, with a significant rise in cross-border M&As, and a changing corporate landscape where established multinationals will largely be absent;
  •  a new IMS will gradually evolve, displacing the US$ as the world's main reserve currency by 2025;
  •  the euro and the RMB (renmimbi, China's currency) will establish themselves on an equal footing in a new “multi-currency” monetary system;
  • the euro is the most credible rival to the US$; “its status is poised to expand provided the euro can successfully overcome sovereign debt crisis currently faced by some member countries and can avoid moral hazard problems associated with bailouts within the European Union;”
  •  the rising role (and internationalising) of the RMB should “resolve the disparity between China's growing economic strength on the global stage and its heavy reliance on foreign currencies;” and
  • the transition will happen gradually.
At no time in modern history have so many EMEs been at the forefront of an evolving multipolar economic system.



A strong US dollar a delusion

The US dollar is the reserve currency. This refers to its use by foreign central banks and governments as part of their international reserves. This role, combined with its widespread use as a medium of exchange (transactions and settlement vehicle), a standard of measurement (unit of account) and a store of value (method of holding wealth), has given rise to the key currency status of the US dollar. For these reasons, the US serves as world banker.

This was not planned. It just evolved since it met various needs of foreign official institutions and foreign private parties more effectively than any alternative could. Many of the reasons for the use of US dollar by official and private parties are the same. However, the aims of the two users need not always coincide. If the US dollar's role as reserve currency was terminated, its use by private traders and institutions would most likely remain, perhaps even stronger. The wheels of commerce keep turning. The role of the US dollar as world banker remains relevant.

It is a long-standing tradition for the US Treasury to favour a strong US dollar. The US Fed has no say since it is outside its purview of fighting inflation and unemployment.

The exchange rate is just another price. The price of the US dollar relative to other currencies is determined in the market, and not under the control of anyone. An increase in demand for US dollar or a reduction in its supply strengthens the US dollar. Lower demand and increased supply will weaken the US dollar.

A strong US dollar is not always good. It depends on what causes it to strengthen; if the cause is rising productivity or innovation, that's good. But in an economy struggling to grow and to create more jobs, a strong US dollar is not so desirable. A weak dollar means goods are cheaper relative to foreign goods; it stimulates exports and reduces imports. Foreign goods get more expansive but more US jobs are created.

At this time, US is better off with a weak dollar. Strangely, most politicians thinks it's desirable for the US dollar to weaken only against one currency, the renminbi. The US Congress routinely bashes China for not weakening the US dollar enough. Indeed, a fall in the value of the US dollar against all currencies would help the US even more. Yet, in the next breath, the same Congress wants the US dollar to be strong. This delusion just won't go away. They are like failed dieters who talk earnestly about healthy living while eating a chocolate doughnut.

The US dollar isn't going anywhere. It is not about to be replaced anytime soon. The only dangers are (i) reckless US mismanagement giving rise to chronic inflation (or deflation if the exit of QE2, the second round of quantitative easing, is not well handled), which is implausible; and (ii) US budget deficits run out of control; outright debt default is far-fetched. Mark Twain once responded to accounts of his ill health by saying “reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”. He might well have referred to the US dollar. For the moment, the patient is stable, external symptoms notwithstanding. But there will be grounds for worry if he doesn't commit to a healthier lifestyle.

The euro and renminbi

Today, the US dollar faces growing competition in the global currency space. The serious contender is the euro, which has gained ground as a currency goods are invoiced and as official reserves held. Nevertheless, share of reserves held in US dollar remains well over double the share held in euros; US$ share did fall from 71% in 2000 to 67% in 2005 and 62% in 2009, while euro's share rose from 24% in 2005 to more than 27% in 2009. In terms of global forex, the US$ market turns over US$3.5 trillion daily, more than double that in euros. But the US dollar share of the market fell from 45% in 2001 to 42% in 2010. Euro capital markets are of comparable depth and liquidity as the US dollar's, and the euro-zone and US economies are roughly the same size.

Events since 2008 have shaken faith in the US financial markets. But the banking crisis and its economic fallout are a trans-Atlantic affair. Continuing euro bailouts is a sign the old continent is not much safer than the US. Worried savers may still sleep better with US$ under their pillow. So for the euro, it's going to be a long haul.

The sheer dynamism of China and the globalisation of its corporations and banks will propel the renminbi to a greater international role. It can become a global settlement currency this year. China has made good progress, signing currency swaps with more central banks. The issuance of renminbi-denominated bonds is actively promoted. Renminbi offshore deposits in Hong Kong (to top 1 trillion renminbi by year-end) are rising rapidly, and offshore renminbi trading will expand beyond Hong Kong.

But with the undervalued exchange rate, an asymmetry in settlement has arisen. Foreign importers are reluctant to settle in renminbi, while foreign exporters are glad to do so. In the end, success at internationalising the renminbi depends on the pace China liberalises the capital account.

The problem lies in speculative capital flows aimed at profiting from arbitrage. Capital controls remain as China's last line of defence against hot' money inflows. Its policy continues to encourage non-residents to hold more renminbi and renminbi-denominated assets. The sequencing of policy adjustments remains critical as China moves forward. The road ahead is going to be bumpy.

Policies co-ordination

By 2025, the World Bank's best bet is the emergence of a multipolar world centered around the US dollar, euro and renminbi. A world supported by the likelihood US, euro-zone & China will constitute the three major “growth poles” by then. They would provide stimulus to other nations through expanding trade, finance and technology transfers, which in turn creates international demand for their currencies. Already, private investment inflows into EMEs are expected at US$1.04 trillion this year (mainly to China) against US$990bil in 2010 and US$640bil in 2009.

Inherent in this shift is rising competition among them, which is real. This is bound to create situations of potential conflict, which can exact a heavy toll on global financial markets and growth. This calls for workable mechanisms to strengthen policy co-ordination across the major growth poles in particular. This is critical in reducing risks of political and economic instability.

In the recent crisis, the G-20 was able to pick low-hanging fruits by managing the re-alignment of macro-economic policies aimed at generally common objectives to get out of recession and to rebuild financial systems. In today's world, shifts in policy co-ordination will be increasingly towards more politically sensitive domestic fiscal and monetary and exchange rate policies. Also, the interests of the least developed countries (LDCs) have to be safeguarded against pressures accompanying the transition to a multipolar order.

Against the backdrop of the tragic earthquakes and tsunami that hit Japan, the political turmoil of the Arab spring' gripping much of Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and growing uncertainties emanating from euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, global growth remains at sub-par this year with high unemployment, and rising inflation in the EMEs and LDCs. This calls for building confidence and promoting investments to boost productivity and create jobs to absorb the large pool of youth in MENA in particular. The LDCs and MENA nations are heavily dependent on external demand for growth. Aid and technical assistance have the ability to cushion adjustments as they adapt in the transition process.

According to the World Bank: “It is also critical that major developed economies and EMEs simultaneously craft policies that are mindful of the growing interdependency associated with the increasing presence of developing economies on the global stage and leverage such interdependency to derive closer international cooperation and prosperity worldwide.”

A former banker, Dr Lin is a Harvard-educated economist and a British Chartered Scientist who now spends time writing, teaching and promoting the public interest. Feedback is most welcome at starbiz@thestar.com.my

Friday, June 3, 2011

The untold story of Malaysia foreign exchange controls





Book reveals how Malaysia beat currency speculators in 1997/98 crisis
By Thean Lee Cheng, Starbiz

 The untold story of foreign exchange controls
Nor Mohamed (left) and Wong at the book launch

KUALA LUMPUR: Former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad toyed with the idea of exchange controls as early as May 1998 but was met with resistance from within the National Economic Advisory Council, the Cabinet and the central bank.

This was revealed in Notes to the Prime Minister, a new book that chronicles one of the biggest challenges and triumphs in Dr Mahathir's 22 years as Malaysia's Prime Minister.

Notes to the Prime Minister: The Untold Story of How Malaysia Beat the Currency Speculators was launched yesterday in Kuala Lumpur by Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop. Tun Dr Mahathir was not present as he was advised by doctors to rest at home.

The book, published by MPH Publishing, is based on 45 sets of notes written between Oct 3, 1997 and Aug 21, 1998 by Nor Mohamed when he became Dr Mahathir's unofficial and unpaid economic adviser.

The Asian financial crisis, which first engulfed Thailand in the middle of 1997, hit Malaysia soon after. Selective capital controls were imposed on Sept 1.

The book is written by veteran journalist Datuk Wong Sulong, the former business editor and group chief editor of The Star.

In an excerpt from the book, Dr Mahathir told Wong that he decided on foreign exchange controls “after Nor Mohamed explained to me how currency trading works ... millions and millions of ringgit can be transferred from a domestic account to a foreign account by a stroke of a pen ... I realised that foreign currency trading can be stopped by stopping this balance transfer.



“But I must say it was not as easy as that. We needed to do a lot of background work and monitoring and Bank Negara (needed to) set up many committees to do that to ensure that the controls were effectively implemented. (Tan Sri) Dr Zeti (Akhtar Aziz, then deputy governor of Bank Negara) did a lot in that respect and also in the economic recovery.”

Notes to the Prime Minister is not only a valuable lesson on how Malaysia took unorthodox steps to solve the Asian financial crisis but it is also a story of how two Malaysians met halfway around the world and came up with the Malaysian solution to the Asian financial crisis.

It is an intriguing story of how Nor Mohamed, then chief executive officer of Mun Loong Bhd, was summoned by Dr Mahathir to meet him in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct 2, 1997. The first set of those notes was written a day later, on Oct 3.

Prior to this unique flow of notes, Nor Mohamed was a Bank Negara adviser.

His expertise in foreign exchange landed him and then Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Jaafar Hussein in trouble. Both of them resigned to take responsibility for Bank Negara's speculation on foreign exchange losses that went into billions of ringgit in the early 1990s. Nor Mohamed joined the private sector after that.

Said Nor Mohamed at the launch: “We learn in history that sometimes the lives of individuals and the fate of nations hinge on a millimetre's difference in the trajectory of a bullet, a road not taken on a whim, or the random stray of a shrapnel.

“In my case, my fate was sealed ... by the turn of a head Tun Dr Mahathir's ... It was a sunny afternoon in September 1997, when the PM's motorcade was speeding along the streets of Kuala Lumpur.

“At one junction, as the motorcade slowed, Tun Dr Mahathir turned his head to look out. And he saw a forlorn-looking man walking towards a row of shops for lunch. That forlorn-looking man was me!”

Nor Mohamed was summoned a few days later to go to Argentina. In April 1998, Nor Mohamed resigned from Mun Loong to concentrate on being Dr Mahathir's unofficial adviser.

During that period of assessement, Nor Mohamed went to Singapore to observe the operations of Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), a board on the Singapore Stock Exchange which dealt with a great number of Malaysian shares. Dr Mahathir felt that Malaysia's currency crisis could not be solved as long as CLOB exists.

Dr Mahathir, aware that his adviser was unemployed, asked: “Do you have money to go down to Singapore?” Nor Mohamed laughed and assured him that the trip would not cost a lot of money. The rest, as they say, is history.

As for Wong, who shares a deep liking for Nor Mohamed, he was asked by his friend to write the book.

“I felt a sense of excitement and a heavy responsibility. These notes had never seen daylight and it shed a new light (on more than just the economic and political aspects of this country). You have to tell a story as honestly as possibile, but not technically, because it has to appeal to the average reader. So that was my dual challenge.”

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Capital controls: From heresy to orthodoxy  

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Malaysians first, Time to stop thinking along racial lines, says Soi Lek!




Time to stop thinking along racial lines, says Soi Lek

KUALA LUMPUR: The people must start thinking of themselves as Malaysians first rather than the racial group they belong to, said MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek.

He said Malaysians had to accept the political reality that the country was a multiracial one and everyone must work together to make it a peaceful and developed place.

“At MCA, we have always asked for the column stating race to be removed from application forms,” he told reporters after the ground-breaking ceremony of the Selangor and Kuala Lumpur Chin Woo Association multi-purpose activity centre here yesterday.



However, Dr Chua acknowledged that it would not be easy to achieve the 1Malaysia objective right now as the people still had very strong racial identity and feelings.

He said Malaysians, from government servants to businessmen, were still thinking along racial lines.

On whether Barisan Nasional component parties that represent the major races in the country are hindrances to achieving the 1Malaysia concept, Dr Chua said they should not be.

“We have been in existence for so long. When we solve problems, we do not talk about race,” he said.

He said even Pakatan Rakyat was a coalition of parties that represented the major races in the country.

“PAS is basically (made up) of Malays and Parti Keadilan Rakyat is (made up of) people (who were previously) from Umno while DAP comprises mostly Chinese,” he said.



On another matter, Dr Chua said more young faces with high chances of winning will be chosen to be MCA candidates in the next general election.

He said young candidates who were media-savvy and had passion and good organisational and language skills would form a good combination with their older counterparts.

“The best combination will be to have the old, middle-aged and the young ones as our candidates,” he said.

He said MCA had always tried to infuse new blood into the party, so those who had been holding party positions should not assume that they would automatically be selected to be election candidates.

“We will also not pick candidates based on their gender or the faction they belong to,” he said.

Recently, Dr Chua hinted that leaders, especially division chairmen who had lost in the previous general election, would not be chosen as candidates in the next general election.

On whether this would backfire and cause acts of sabotage among party members, Dr Chua said: “If a candidate has a high chance of winning, he or she should not be worried.”

He said when MCA made the decision to not take up any government posts should it perform poorly in the next general election, it was a warning to incumbent leaders not to be complacent but to work hard to get the support of voters.

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Errant lawyers ticked off





By M. MAGESWARI mages@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Seven lawyers were reprimanded by the Advocates and Solicitors Disciplinary Board in the first five months of this year following six complaints against them for unbefitting conduct, breach of Legal Profession Act Rules and negligence in handling their cases.

Board chairman Tan Sri Khalid Ahmad Sulaiman told The Star that the disciplinary board only reprimanded the lawyers after finding that they had no intention of cheating their clients or misleading the courts.

“We have even reprimanded senior lawyers for overlooking certain things. “Lawyers must be professional and their client’s interest is paramount to them,” he said.

Khalid said one of the reasons lawyers were reprimanded was failing to respond to the Bar Council and their client’s letters.

“They were reprimanded for unbecoming conduct as advocates and solicitors. “Lawyers who do not attend court proceedings will also be reprimanded,” he added.



Khalid said the board had ticked off senior lawyers for leaving their legal advisers or clerks to deal with certain matters.

“I have told them to keep an eye on their legal advisers and clerks. We told them to be careful next time and not let this happen again.”

He said the board warned the lawyers that they would face severe punishment, including suspension.
Khalid hoped the lawyers, mostly first-time offenders, would not repeat their mistakes.

He said those reprimanded were among the more than 500 lawyers who were investigated by the board after complaints were lodged against them between January and May.

The Star had published an exclusive report yesterday stating that the board had received 538 complaints against lawyers, mostly in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Johor Baru, in the first five months of the year.

Five were barred from practising, 28 including four Datuks were fined between RM1,000 and RM30,000, while investigations into the other cases are ongoing.

The board receives an average of 900 complaints a year, including criminal breach of trust and breach of solicitor’s ethics.

Former Malaysian Bar president Ragunath Kesavan said complaints against lawyers, mostly for dishonesty involving client’s money, had been forwarded to the board.

“Any (wrongful) transaction involving the client’s accounts is a serious offence. We have lodged complaints against lawyers for dishonesty involving amounts ranging between RM20,000 and RM2mil,” he said.

He added that the board had found the lawyers guilty after investigating the complaints.

Ragunath said the Bar had confidence in the disciplinary proceedings by the board as it was independent.
“It is very important to have public confidence in the legal profession.”

He said the Bar forwarded complaints of dishonesty without any hesitation, although only a small percentage of lawyers were involved in such cases.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Racial divide a myth as racialism is not the cause




Racial divide a myth

by Ajit Singh Jessy 

SCANNING the various websites and the comments from readers, one would think that racialism pervades our society and daily life. It is also made out to appear that we are about to have racial riots and that there is an insurmountable racial divide.

In my view, this is far from the truth and largely exists in the minds of the writers and may, in fact, be reflective of their own racist views and upbringing.

The issue of scholarships and comments by Datuk Seri Mohammed Nazri Abdul Aziz that Ibrahim Ali is a clown and so forth, are twisted to imply that racialism is the cause.

Scholarships, of course, must be offered to those with good academic results, as well as deserving cases, who may not have the best results but need assistance.

I am not aware of any time in our history where scholarships were given automatically to those with the best results only.

Other factors have always been weighed in and it is not possible for scholarships to be given to all.

In the United States, too, at one time, African-Americans were given special consideration in education and jobs. In India, this is widespread, with some so-called backward classes committing suicide to ensure that they are given special privileges in education and that places are reserved for them in institutions of higher learning.

When Nazri said Ibrahim was a clown, he probably meant that Ibrahim should not be taken seriously.

We still go to Malay weddings, kenduri and lunch with our Malay colleagues and they attend the functions of others. We should not make accusations of double standards at the drop of a hat.

Such accusations imply that others should be allowed to make similar sensitive statements. What would be the end result?



Tension and fear. How does this help the cause of nation- building? These racial critics talk about fairness but are blind to the fact that continuous tit for tat does not serve any purpose.

The views of people like Ibrahim should be ignored.

This talk of a threatening racial divide does not exist in our daily life. You can go to any government department, where the Malays form the majority, and yet, they will not attend to a Malay first but to everyone by turn.

I go to a Malay stall for lunch and there is always a long line of customers from all races and yet, the woman will serve you by your turn. She does not ask the Malays to jump queue just because they are of the same race or religion.

So, what are these critics complaining about discrimination being institutionalised?

You can walk down any street and no one will call out by your race but address you politely according to your age or gender, such as adik, kak, pakcik or makcik. You will not find this if there is a racial divide.

My legal firm has Chinese, Malay and Indian staff. I see them going out for lunch together, celebrating birthdays and visiting one another's homes during festivals.

In fact, we feel most at home when we go to some homes for Hari Raya because the family will attend to the non-Malay visitors first and even remove the beef dishes from the table.

This is the reality of multiracial and multireligious Malaysia and the said behaviour reflects how we live together and not accommodate or tolerate one another, as these misinformed racialists will have us believe.

I think it is time for these mischievous and self-appointed experts on racial issues to come down from their ivory towers and lead a normal life, by sincerely intermingling with one and all.

These writers are in fact creating problems by passing off their prejudiced views as those of the majority of Malaysians.

To compound matters, there are former Malaysians who give their opinion about how this country is headed for racial and financial disaster, and their views are given wide circulation through the Internet. While I welcome different views, it is not proper for these ex-citizens to behave as though only they know what is best for our country.

Leave that to us, and please, take care of your adopted country, where you probably cannot even stand for elections and do not have the numbers to make a difference to the election outcome.

AJIT SINGH JESSY
Penang

The Renminbi’s Journey to the World

As China's currency becomes more popular internationally, the country will have less need to hold US dollar assets.





BEIJING – Recently, HSBC bank released an upbeat survey predicting that China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become one of three global settlement currencies (alongside the dollar and euro) sometime this year. It seems that the RMB’s internationalization has been progressing without anyone really noticing. The key remaining questions concern whether or not the RMB will become an important international currency anytime soon, and whether it is poised to pose a serious challenge to the US dollar’s domination of the international monetary system.

 
China has made progress in the use of the renminbi (RMB) as a settlement currency [GALLO/GETTY]

An international currency is used and held beyond the issuing country’s borders, and plays the role of unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value for residents and non-residents alike. Certainly, there are many potential benefits for China to be gained from the RMB’s internationalization:

·        Elimination of exchange-rate risks to which Chinese firms are exposed;
·        Greater funding efficiency for Chinese financial institutions, thus strengthening their competitiveness in global financial markets;
·        A boost to China’s trade with its neighbors, owing to the reduction in transaction costs;
·        Less need for China to hold US dollar assets and risk capital losses on the country’s foreign-exchange reserves;
·        Eventual status as one of the world’s major reserve currencies, which would provide China more freedom to maneuver in domestic and international economic policy.

China’s enthusiasm for RMB internationalization since 2009 partly reflects its frustration with the lack of progress in reforming the international financial architecture, and with the state of regional financial cooperation. Chinese officials believe that RMB internationalization is a way for China to set its own agenda without being overly constrained by external conditions beyond its control.



Thus far, China has made significant progress in the use of the RMB as a settlement currency, in the issuance of RMB-denominated bonds, and in signing currency-swap agreements with foreign central banks. RMB deposits in Hong Kong are growing exponentially.

Despite these achievements, however, RMB internationalization could still easily go awry. For example, various incentives have been provided to encourage enterprises to use the RMB to settle transactions. But, with an undervalued exchange rate and strong expectations for the RMB to appreciate in the future, foreign importers of Chinese products refuse to use the RMB to settle transactions, while foreign exporters are happy to accept RMB. As a result, even with the same trade balance, China ends up with more foreign-exchange reserves, though using the RMB as a settlement currency is supposed to reduce their accumulation.

Indeed, so far, RMB internationalization has shown a clear pattern of asymmetry – and not only as a settlement currency for China’s imports, but not for exports. RMB-denominated bonds meet strong demand, yet non-residents have no great incentive to issue them. And, while foreign lenders are happy to extend RMB loans, they are not welcome by foreign borrowers. Given strong expectations of RMB appreciation, internationalization will inevitably lead to a serious currency mismatch, with possibly detrimental consequences for China’s welfare.

A more fundamental problem for RMB internationalization is what it implies for China’s capital controls. Although the internationalization of a currency is not tantamount to capital-account liberalization, the degree of internationalization is conditional on capital-account liberalization. In fact, internationalization of the RMB has opened a new hole in China’s wall of capital controls. The big increase in RMB deposits in Hong Kong is a case in point.

When a currency endures a prolonged process of one-way appreciation, speculative capital aimed at exchange-rate arbitrage is bound to seek all chances to flow in. Hot money will increase currency appreciation pressure and complicate macroeconomic management. The profit-taking by speculators at the end of the game will lead to huge welfare losses to the recipient country, in this case China.

Fear of hot money was the main reason why China refused to de-peg the RMB from the dollar until July 2005. While China did decide to allow the RMB to appreciate gradually after that, it has relied on capital controls to prevent hot money from flowing in. The controls are leaky, to be sure, but they have worked (so far), which is why China has effectively maintained macroeconomic stability over the years.

The key objective of China’s capital controls is to prevent non-residents from holding domestic RMB-denominated assets that are unrelated to trade and long-term capital flows. But RMB internationalization encourages non-residents to hold more RMBs and RMB-denominated assets. As a result of RMB internationalization, RMB deposits held by Hong Kong residents have reached RMB370 billion ($57 billion), and the amount may reach RMB1 trillion by the end of the year.

One might wonder what difference there is between hot money and RMB deposits held by non-residents. The answer depends on why non-residents hold these deposits. The attraction of the RMB should come from China’s strong economic fundamentals and faith in its economy. If it comes from expectations of RMB appreciation, the success of RMB internationalization can be easily reversed and will cause more problems for China’s monetary authority to solve in the future.

Fortunately, China’s monetary authority has already noticed the subtlety of the distinction between legitimate demand for RMB-denominated assets and hot money. This means that the pace of RMB internationalization could become more measured than international investors have expected.

While internationalization of the RMB is necessary (and inevitable), it should be guided by market principles and pursued in a cautious manner. To get the sequence of policy adjustments right is vital. In any case, the RMB’s path to becoming a truly international currency promises to be a bumpy one.

By Yu Yongding, currently President of the China Society of World Economics, is a former member of the monetary policy committee of the Peoples' Bank of China and former Director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics.