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Saturday, April 14, 2012

The state as market

THE more I study the Indian and Chinese growth models, the more I realise that the current debate over the state versus the market is a false dichotomy.

Both the state and the market are social institutions that are not independent of each other. Indeed, they are inseparable, interactive and interdependent.

Human development or evolution is a complex interaction or feedback between the two. In Small is beautiful author EF Schumacher's view, “Maybe what we really need is not either-or but the-one-and-the-other-at-the-same-time”.

India and China could not have become global powerhouses of growth, without the leading role of the state in planning for development. But those states that have worked with markets have succeeded better than those that worked against markets.

London Business School Prof John Kay defines the market as a relatively transparent, self-organised, incentive-matching mechanism for the exchange of goods and services, usually in monetary terms.

In plain language, the market helps to match willing buyer, willing seller under certain rules of the game to determine market price. The market clears when it functions properly, but market failure happens when the market is imbalanced.

Kay reminds us that capitalism is less about ownership than “its competitive advantages its systems of organisation, its reputation with suppliers and customers, its capacity for innovation”.

Because of globalisation and technological change, we are living in a situation of change within change, as if the national state is not in total control of our destinies. Because of the global economy, state policies such as monetary, exchange rate and trade, cannot be independent of what is happening globally.

No man, no company, no state is an island. Globalisation has changed the rules of the game irreversibly.
Why is the state so much bigger and more powerful than before?

In the 19th century, most governments were not larger than 15% of GDP. By 1960, the size of governments in OECD countries had doubled to 30% of GDP. Today, the average has increased further to 40% of GDP.

The state has grown because there has been demand for more and more state services, but there is also concern that bureaucracies tend to grow to perpetuate itself.

I find it useful to think about the state as a market-like institution for exchange of power (in non-monetary terms). Power comes from social delegation the people give the power to the state to protect them and to fairly enforce social rules and laws. Hence, the “state as market” has the same dilemmas as the market information asymmetry and the principal-agent problem.

In large countries like India and China, there are many levels of government central, provincial, city, town, village and rural governments, each with their own departments and even enterprises. Most citizens find it difficult and confusing to deal with complex bureaucratic power. The Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto was one of the first to point out that rural poverty exists, because the poor's property rights are not protected adequately and their transaction costs are extremely high because of complex government.

In other words, markets are efficient and stable when the state is efficient and stable. It is not surprising from recent experience that financial crises are results of governance failures. As the European debt crisis amply demonstrates, financial markets cannot clear when the fiscal condition of the state is on shaky grounds, and there is no mechanism to make fast, simple, clear decisions.

Finding the right balance between state and market is the real challenge in all economies today. As 20th century British philosopher Bertrand Russell reminded us, “people do not always remember that politics, economics and social organisation generally belong in the realm of means, not ends”.

Today's demands on the state to provide stability, growth and social equity are complex, because recent dominance of free market ideology has ended up with serious problems of wealth and income disparities and environmental degradation.

Realising that large states with geopolitically significant human and ecological footprints cannot consume like the United States or Europe on a per capita basis, China and India are embarking on ambitious 12th five-year plans to change their growth models to become more environmentally sustainable economies with greater social inclusiveness.

But large economies with many layers of government struggle between centralisation and decentralisation of people, resources and power.

For systems to be stable and sustainable, they have to be adaptable to complex forces of change from internal and external shocks.

To maintain integrity, there are complex trade-offs between winners and losers in each society. Such rules and bargains are difficult when the causes and effects of losses are unclear (such as crisis) and when vested interests resist change for fear of losing what they have. Vested interests are often unwilling to change because they value present gains far more than uncertain futures. Politics is the compromise of contending interests.

The belief that markets are always right assumes that markets always balance. The market cannot balance when the state cannot balance the contending interests. The main reason for the advanced country debt crisis is because their consumption has happened today by postponing the costs to future generations.

This raises a fundamental problem. Whichever way you term it, central bank quantitative easing is ultimately state intervention.

The rise in Spanish bond yields, despite ECB long-term refinancing operations, suggest that the markets are saying there are limits to the growing euro public debt.

At the same time, global financial markets are watching carefully whether inflation in China and India will rekindle global inflation.

In other words, the anchor of global financial stability rests on state debt stability. The state cannot escape being priced by the market.

  THINK ASIANBy ANDREW SHENG - Andrew Sheng is president of the Fung Global Institute.

Jimmy Choo honoured with Chinese award in arts and culture


BEIJING: Datuk Jimmy Choo has been honoured as one of the most influential Chinese personalities in the field of arts and culture.

The internationally-renowned Malaysian shoe designer had become the first Malaysian to receive the “You Bring Charm to the World World's Most Influential Chinese Award” from Phoenix Television in China under the arts and culture category at Peking University two weeks ago.

The award under the same category was also given to Hong Kong actress Deanie Ip, who won 15 best actress awards worldwide.

As a Chinese of Hakka descent, Datuk Jimmy Choo was very moved and honoured to be given the award.

“When I first started designing my own shoes, no one would buy them even though the price was only £50 (RM246),” said Choo.

“But today, Jimmy Choo has become a household name and I am proud that I am able to bring honour to the Chinese community because of my name.”

Last year, Choo had also won the prestigious “The World's Outstanding Chinese Designer 2011” Design for Asia award.

When asked whether his designs are influenced by Western or Eastern culture, Choo said he used a mix of both cultures and traditions in his shoe designs because he always remembered his Chinese roots.

He added that he was proud of his Chinese name Choo Yeang Keat (pronounced “Zhou Yang Jie” in Mandarin) and urged Chinese people to believe in themselves.

“Everything in the world is the same there is no East or West.

“The most important thing is that your design is elegant, beautiful and comfortable, and you will be successful,” said Choo.

Other notable ethnic Chinese personalities who had won the “You Bring Charm to the World Award” this year include New York Knicks rising basketball star Jeremy Lin and Chinese scientists Zhenyi and Chen Zhu for their research work in cancer treatment.

By LIM WEY WEN  wwen@thestar.com.my

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Living life by finding fulfilment without landing in debt

ARE you driven by a desire for instant gratification? Today, it has become a norm to splash the cash on ourselves, and it seems to be getting harder to keep in check the urge to spend and spend.

Unfortunately, current gain may mean future pain unless we are in control of our expenses. The good news is that it is possible to stay in charge if we know how to change our behaviour and what tools we need to do the job.



Falling prey

When the latest gadget or fad is in town, our lives seem to turn unbearably dull until we go out and get a piece of the action for ourselves.

We see others enjoying their iPads or Galaxy Note, and feel so left behind because we don't have one ourselves. A few months ago, we had barely spared a thought on it, but for some strange reason, it suddenly feels like we just cannot function without having one. So, before we can check ourselves, we've gone and bought one too, although we may not really know what we want to use it for, except endlessly checking our Facebook accounts.

That is just one among the many temptations around us that are competing for our hard-earned money. Media messages of dream getaways fuel our desire to go to enchanting overseas locations, and we can't wait to blow a small fortune on a holiday it has to be next month or we could almost burst.

Advertisements sell us the idea that we deserve to live a privileged existence, no matter what our station in life. We indulge in fine dining at the drop of a hat. When the stress of our jobs gets to us, shopping comes to the rescue in the name of retail therapy.

No wonder we find that there's a big hole in our pockets. For those of us who have become used to living life large, it may seem strange that not long ago, that was far from the norm. Just one generation earlier, it was quite usual for people to save patiently towards their financial goals, i.e. to delay gratification until they had the money to spend.

Before and now

If they wanted to buy a car, our folks would not simply look for the latest model, but consider what was on the second-hand market. They would save towards a bigger downpayment, to reduce the interest they have to pay on the hire-purchase loan.

The first step was to save, not seek enjoyment. They kept money aside for education and important financial goals. The habit of accumulating savings was strongly ingrained in them. Sadly, that is virtually non-existent now. If you found yourself in a deep level of debt, this is a habit you have to re-learn in order to regain control of your finances.

For sound money management, delayed gratification is a key behaviour to adopt, while instant gratification can set us on the road to serious financial problems. Worse yet is “advance gratification”, when we spend money before we have earned it. Seeking instant enjoyment is not as bad. It just means that we cannot keep cash and spend it as soon as we have it in our hands.

Today, with the massive use of credit cards to pay for high lifestyles, we are in danger of being buried under consumer debt. This is a growing problem which is being seen particularly among the young.

In the past, a person who had no savings was seen as someone with poor money management skills. Now, it is quite common for people in their 20s and 30s to already be in debt to the tune of RM30,000 to RM50,000. Addressing this problem requires a change in mindsets.

Not so long ago, a person entering the job market would use the bus or get a second-hand motorcycle for about RM2,000 to RM3,000. Purchasing a car would be delayed until after about five years of work. Even then, it would probably be a used car costing between RM10,000 and RM12,000.

Today, many young people expect to drive a car before they work, usually looking to their parents for financing. For better money management, this expectation should be replaced by the habit of delayed gratification. If the young learn to save towards the car they want to drive, they can avoid building up a heavy burden of debt. Taking the LRT or commuter train can be among the options.

Growing materialism

The easy availability of consumer credit can contribute to debt accumulation becoming a larger problem for the economy, as is seen in debt-driven societies like the United States and some European countries. The Malaysian authorities can avoid the mistakes of those countries by taking further action to tighten lending rules.

Personal debt management problems are closely related to another trend in society today growing materialism. The idea that happiness depends on the number of material possessions we have appears to be stronger as time goes by.

More than ever, we now need to rediscover the value of non-material interests such as watching the sunset, jungle trekking or volunteering our time in order to find happiness and fulfilment in our lives. We need to find a balance between material wealth and life-enriching experiences that are not measured in monetary terms but build our self-esteem.

For most of us, the amount of money available is limited. In fact, there is never enough for anyone. If we change the way we look at ourselves, many of the problems associated with excessive spending will be resolved.

Instead of dining out at a fancy restaurant, we can have a fulfilling meal at home with our families and enjoy the warmth of their happiness. Instead of spending on more clothes, we can save the money for a good end. Instead of splurging on an expensive holiday, we can find joy and accomplishment in playing a musical instrument.

These are values that adults can inculcate in the young that will pay dividends all their lives. Perhaps the current debt crisis is a reminder to pay attention to the lifestyle choices we unwittingly teach the young.

MONEY & YOU By YAP MING HUI -Yap Ming Hui (yapmh@whitman.com.my) is an independent financial advisor. He is the managing director of Whitman Independent Advisors




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Friday, April 13, 2012

PTPTN l student loans: stick to its guns, written off, learn to pay back ?

A promise that can be written off

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s latest plan – to abolish PTPTN study loans and provide free higher education – may seem attractive, but it just goes to show how desperate Pakatan Rakyat is politically.

BOTH Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat are announcing populist measures to influence voters and get their attention as the general election, that is expected to be keenly contested, draws near.

While Barisan has numerous popular projects from the 1Malaysia clinics to Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia, Pakatan leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, not to be outdone, has come up with his plan – to abolish PTPTN study loans and thereafter, provide free higher education.

He is proposing to use Petronas funds to write off the RM43bil in PTPTN loans taken since 1999 and provide free higher education for subsequent generations of students.

 Varsity cheer: Anwar’s proposal to write off outstanding PTPTN loans and provide free higher education is attractive but will he deliver on his promise should Pakatan Rakyat come to power?
 
At first hearing, his scheme is attractive, especially to the 1.9 million students who have received study loans under the PTPTN scheme up to 2011.

Who will not want their outstanding study loans written off and for future generations of students to study free using Petronas funds?

It’s simple - all the students and their parents need to do is vote and ensure that Pakatan captures Putrajaya in the general election and then wait for Anwar to deliver on his promise.

The vast majority of PTPTN loan takers have paid up or are paying their loans. About 144,000 borrowers have been blacklisted for not paying and they will have reason to rejoice with Anwar’s promise to write off the loans.

The cost of higher education has shot up since the mid-1990s and it now costs more to study and even more for the Government to subsidise higher education.

For instance, a year’s tuition for a medical course in a public university, before any subsidy, comes to RM166,000. But students only have to pay RM9,000, which means 94.6% of the fees are subsidised.

Higher Education Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin, in clarifying the cost structure to reporters last week, explained that a first-year engineering course costs RM61,000 but students only pay RM6,800. He said 90% of the cost is subsidised by the Government.

Students in public and private institutions of higher learning need only pay between 5% and 10% of the cost of degrees that they are pursuing and even then, they are already subsidised in the form of PTPTN loans.
Students who take PTPTN loans pay a minimum of the course fees and take care of their living costs in the cities and major towns where they are located.

When students have completed their studies and are gainfullly employed, they start repaying their loans and many have done so.

Abolishing PTPTN loans sounds good but it is impractical because higher education is heavily subsidised, up to 90% or more, by the Government with students paying only under 10% of the course fees.

And even for that amount, they take PTPTN loans.

But because elections are near and Anwar feels pressured, he has come up with a grand scheme to write off the entire RM43bil PTPTN loans given out since 1996 and use Petronas funds to finance future generations of students for free.

Petronas is the national oil corporation and it deals with our own oil, which is beginning to deplete, and oil in other countries, which it explores, refines and markets for a percentage of the profits that it brings home.

Nearly half of Petronas’ payments to the Government — and the percentage is rising — is from dealing in oil in other countries.

Anwar should not use Petronas as a Santa Claus to promise parents free higher education for their children.

The oil corporation is footing a huge part of the national budget and it can’t be milked anymore to write off PTPTN loans and underwrite higher education.

Taxpayers, who are also subsidising higher education, should not be burdened with more taxes by a Pakatan policy of offering free higher education for all if it captures Putra-jaya.

PTPTN loans are very low-cost loans for students to pursue their dreams of getting a diploma or a degree or to arm themselves with a skill to face a challenging future at local colleges and universities.

It is reckless for Pakatan to promise that it will write off the outstanding loans and offer free higher education if elected to Putrajaya.

It is a big promise from a man whose penchant is to make ever bigger promises as the general election nears.

And he will make them in a dramatic and striking manner, which just goes to show his desperation that the political momentum is slipping away. 

Analysis By BARADAN KUPPUSAMY

Learning to pay for a better future


Doing away with PTPTN loans will not only burden taxpayers but also deprive many of a higher education.

THERE was much joy at the latest family gathering as my brother’s eldest son joined the ranks of medical doctors in the family – he graduated a month ago and is the sixth in the extended family to put the MBBS to the back of his name.

In a few more months, two more of his cousins will also be graduating as doctors from the same private medical college.

The total cost of educating the three of them is more than RM1mil.

The elder one managed by taking loans from the National Higher Education Fund Corporation or better known as PTPTN. Without such a loan, I doubt whether my nephew could have pursued his ambition to be a doctor.

PTPTN has disbursed loans to 1.95 million students, totalling RM43.60bil, from 1997 to February this year.

Now it seems some people want to can this and want the Government to provide total free education from “cradle to grave” – as stated by Solidariti Mahasiswa Malaysia (SMM) chairman Muhammad Safwan Anang.

SMM is a pro-opposition student movement.

His call was supported by Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who again pointed to Petronas’ oil revenues as a means to pay for the higher education needs of all Malaysians.

This is obviously just a populist move meant to please a certain quarter – mostly the more than 100,000 defaulters of whom about 70,000 have not even paid up a single sen since completing their studies some 14 years ago.

Who would not like to have their loans cancelled? The almost two million borrowers are a very big electorate for any political party to woo.

For the record, PTPTN loans recovery has not been very good. Over the past 14 years, a total of RM5.6bil was to have been collected in loan repayments, but only RM2.7bil had been received.

The corporation has tried all means to get back its money including the rather unpopular blacklisting at all exit points that prevents defaulters from leaving the country.

This is what is unpopular with PTPTN.

Previously, the corporation was criticised for not making a serious attempt at ensuring loan repayments, but when it makes an effort to do so it is accused of being a bully.

Learning to pay for your own needs and wants, including debts, is as important as a formal education. This is called a lesson in responsibility. Cancelling the study loan is like an uncompleted course.

Despite the contentious blacklisting move, the PTPTN loan is the single largest enabler of education in this country. Without this loan scheme more than half of the some two million borrowers would not have been able to further their education.

I know of several students who only made it to a tertiary institution because they were able to get a loan.
An uncle of one of them said he was willing to provide support in terms of pocket money and even accommodation.

“Unless he makes it into a public university, tertiary education will be beyond us,” the uncle said. The nephew is already grateful because he knows his future is assured either way.

He is not alone.

A good friend, who lives and works in Hong Kong, is very proud of his daughter’s independence because of the PTPTN scheme.

“I do not have the money to send her overseas for a higher education and she couldn’t get into a public institution. But she managed to get a PTPTN loan, and with that she could study in a local private college.

“She did everything herself, and was even able to save some money to buy herself a car. She made sure she passed all her exams and is now working. She is also paying back the loan on her own,” this friend said, adding that he never expected her to be so independent.

When the Government first liberalised the education system in the early 1990s, the number of those aged below 24 who received tertiary education was less than 15% but this has risen to 45% currently and should reach 50% by 2020 – and all this is due directly to the PTPTN scheme.

PTPTN can also be credited with the growth of the number of higher education institutions in the country. As of October, there were 20 public universities, 26 private universities, 23 private university colleges, several branch campuses of foreign universities, 28 polytechnics, 74 community colleges and 434 private colleges.

Providing free higher education, ironically, will result in many of these institutions being beyond the reach of the middle class and the poor because they will have to go to Government funded colleges.

For a simple three-year business related degree from a local private university, the tuition fee will be between RM30,000 and RM40,000. A local medical degree will cost more than RM300,000.

Without a doubt many of these private colleges are decent institutions of higher education, and a viable alternative to the expensive foreign education that most Malaysians dream of.

Just like everyone cannot be a doctor or a prime minister, not everyone can afford a foreign education.
These almost-500 private institutions provide a channel for our young to pursue their education dreams.

PTPTN makes this possible.

Why Not? By WONG SAI WAN

> Executive editor Wong Sai Wan is glad he can afford to pay for his children’s education but realises many need financial help to educate theirs

PTPTN should stick to its guns


QUESTION TIME By P.GUNASEGARAM

The most efficient way to educate those who can’t afford it is through loans as it ensures that future generations will similarly benefit.

IT’S a bad part of human nature that the more you get the more you want, especially when you get something relatively easily.

And since according to common wisdom elections are supposedly around the corner, now’s the time to demand and hope that the Government will accede simply to please in the hope of getting more votes.

But there is a need to be more responsible than that. If goodies are handed out every time they are demanded, we are going to have problems, real problems.

We should not be going anywhere near forgiving other people’s debts as an election manoeuvre but that’s exactly what is being asked for.

There are many hundreds of thousands of people who have taken loans from the National Higher Education Fund (Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional or PTPTN) but now incredibly they want their loans to be waived – just like that. I wish my housing loan was waived too.

Not only should their requests be flatly turned down, the Government should review its entire system of scholarships on which it spends tens of billions of ringgit yearly in favour of a system of loans.

The PTPTN loans require repayment only after those who have taken them get jobs or six months after graduation whichever comes first and is to be paid through the Inland Revenue Department. They carry low rates.

We are talking about really big amounts – as at end of February, 1.9 million students had loans totalling RM43.6bil from the PTPTN. That’s a huge amount to be written off and the Government simply cannot afford to do so.

Based on the figures, the average loan per borrower works out to around RM22,000 and it should be possible for PTPTN to work out some arrangement with the borrower if it is not possible to repay the loan within the prescribed period due to unemployment or other reasons.

Eventually, most graduates do get employed and when they get jobs, they will stand to earn a lot more than non-graduates and they should be made to repay society for the help they received in getting a leg up.

Many others were unfortunate enough not to get a proper education because they could not afford to pay the fees or take time off from work to study. They often never earn graduate salaries in their entire lifetimes.

The attitude of borrowers who have taken money from PTPTN and now do not want to repay is selfish because they deprive other similarly disadvantaged students from financial assistance in the future.

The PTPTN was conceived as a fund that will be largely self-financing from repayments and that’s the way it should be operated so that the most number of people benefit from it.

Most of the loans are taken by borrowers in public universities to cover the cost of living as fees are already low in these universities. The timely repayment of such loans ensures that future students will continue to benefit from the programme.

The politicisation of this issue is terribly unfortunate not only because it puts pressure on a scheme, which if properly administered, will result in the emergence of a sustainable operation largely funded by repayments but because it inhibits consideration of loan schemes to replace scholarships.

The scheme can be made more attractive by making repayments completely interest-free and free of any maintenance fees as is the case in countries such as Australia for their own citizens.

The Government can then expand this scheme so that all qualified students are eligible for loans and even extend the scheme to those who want to study overseas.

Then it can reduce the amount of scholarships allocated and restrict these largely to a select list of merit scholarships and to fund those it wants to employ in future.

That way the Government will be able to help more people get access to higher studies without having to break its financial back by providing outright scholarships and grants.

However, that would require some courage because the rolling back of scholarships which were relatively freely made available earlier would meet with a considerable amount of opposition from all quarters.

You can sometimes give too much but try and take that away and you can get a lot of problems.

Governments all over the world are moving towards interest-free loans to help needy students. It’s the right way to go because only those serious about their education would take such loans and they will tend to limit their loans to what they need because it has to be repaid.

That’s a good way to allocate scarce resources by making people who can’t afford it take interest-free loans and defer payments until later. Instead, those who have taken loans are demanding they be turned into scholarships instead. That’s really too much.

Acceding to such demands would be populist, what move would not be when you give something valuable away for free, but it would be wrong simply because it is going to deprive future generations from access to education.

Resources are finite after all and we must find the best way to allocate them. Sometimes, you have to be cruel to be kind.

> Independent consultant and writer P. Gunasegaram believes that both lender and borrower have a joint responsibility to ensure that funds are properly used.

Google+ face-lift triggers jibes over extra white space

Yesterday's revamp of Google+ leaves a hefty amount of white space on certain pages, a design change that's brought out the comedian in many users.

 
(Credit: Screenshot by Lance Whitney/CNET)
 
What would you do with the extra white space now gracing the pages of Google+?

That's a question many users of the social network have been answering with the usual sarcastic spin we always love to see on the Internet.

Launching yesterday, the latest face-lift for Google+ added a slew of changes, including a new left-side navigation bar and new ways to interact with the people in your circles.

But the one change that's put people into full mocking mode is the new and extra-sized white space. Click on any virtually any Google+ page, and a good 40 percent is nothing but blank space.

The white-space flap has led to its own trending topic on Google+, where an array of users have chimed in with suggestions on how to use that space most effectively.

One user found the extra white space in front of his monitor a good spot to place his beer. Another put his cat in front of it. And a third angled his monitor into portrait mode to get rid of the white space entirely.
Personally, I'm a fan of white space. I think most Web pages are way too cluttered, so a little breathing room isn't so bad. But in this case, the search giant may have gone a bit overboard. The extra space kind of makes the pages seem off-balance, like they're going to tip over.

The obvious questions are why Google designed the pages this way and whether the company plans to use that extra real estate for other content down the road.

A Google rep told CNET that some of the changes were indeed created for future needs.

"So while it may look clutter-free now, the idea is to give us space that will allow us to quickly grow," the rep said. "With today's foundational changes we can move even faster--toward a simpler, more beautiful Google."

I have hunch, though, that the company may have planned the whole "extra white space" conspiracy as a savvy marketing strategy. It quickly turned into a trending topic and has generated lots of buzz. What better publicity could you ask for?


Lance Whitney wears a few different technology hats--journalist, Web developer, and software trainer. He's a contributing editor for Microsoft TechNet Magazine and writes for other computer publications and Web sites. Lance is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and he is not an employee of CNET.

North Korea Satellite & Rocket Launch Failed

DPRK confirms satellite failed to enter orbit




Pyongyang, April 13 (Xinhua) -- An earth observation satellite launched by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) earlier Friday morning has failed to enter orbit, and scientists and technicians are now looking into the cause of the failure, the official KCNA news agency reported.

The Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite was launched at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province at 07:38 a.m. on Friday (2238 GMT Thursday), said the report.

"The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit.Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure," it said.

The DPRK's failed launch has aroused international concerns, with the United States, Japan and South Korea all condemning the move, which they viewed had breached relevant UN resolutions.

The DPRK has said that its launch is for peaceful purposes and would not harm the region and neighboring countries.




This still from an Analytical Graphics, Inc., video animation depicts North Korea's Unha-3 rocket and Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite in the last leg of a potential orbital launch in April 2012.
CREDIT: Analytical Graphics, Inc.View full size image
North Korea Rocket Launch Envisioned in Video Animation via @SPACEdotcom

North Korea has launched its long-range rocket but the US, Japan and South Korea say it failed shortly after take-off and fell into the sea. There has been no word yet from Pyongyang on the launch. 

North Korea says the aim of the rocket is to launch a satellite but critics say the launch constituted a disguised test of long-range missile technology banned under UN resolutions.

As the world watches and waits to see if North Korea will continue in its bid to launch a long-range rocket despite international warnings, a new video animation reveals just how the space test could occur.

The new video, released late Wednesday (April 11) by the analytical firm Analytical Graphics Inc., covers North Korea's planned Unha-3 rocket launch, showing the flight trajectory from a point just after liftoff through the separation of its satellite payload.


"AGI has used its software to produce a video demonstrating the launch and its possible path, tracking assets and landing zones," AGI officials wrote in a media alert.

North Korean space officials have said the Unha-3 rocket will launch a new Earth-observing satellite sometime between April 12 and April 16 to honor the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea. Critics of the launch, which include the United States, Japan and South Korea, claim the launch is a cover for a missile test that violates United Nations Security Council resolutions. [Images: North Korea's Rocket and Missile Program]

According to AGI's video animation of the Unha-3 rocket launch, the three-stage booster will blast off from the new North Korean launch site near the northwest village of Tongchang-ri, which corresponds with official statements from North Korea and Western observers. The rocket will then head in a southerly direction and drop its first stage in the Yellow Sea well to the west of South Korea, where officials have said they would shoot down any parts of the Unha-3 territory that threatened to fall on South Korean territory.

The next stage of the Unha-3 rocket would likely fall just to the east of the Philippines after the booster's third stage and payload — the Earth-monitoring satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 — separates and heads towards orbit, the AGI animation shows.

If the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite reaches its intended polar orbit, its trajectory would carry it over a major stretch of Australia after the spacecraft separates from the Unha-3 rocket, according to the AGI depiction.

North Korea's Unha-3 rocket appears to be a liquid-fueled rocket that stands about 100 feet (30 meters) tall. The Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite, meanwhile, is a boxy, solar-powered spacecraft, according to videos and images in media reports, as well as the AGI video.

Exactly which day of the current window North Korea will launch the Unha-3 rocket is not yet certain, though the country's space organization did begin fueling the rocket for liftoff on Wednesday, suggesting a potential launch attempt in upcoming days, according to press reports.
Follow SPACE.com for the latest in space science and exploration news on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Rental Properties: Cash Cow Or Money Pit?


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Real estate investors must have basic valuation skills to make buy, sell, or hold decisions. Real estate investment companies have developed sophisticated valuation models to aid them in making investment decisions. However, by using spreadsheet tools an individual can produce an adequate valuation on most income-producing real estate. This would include residential real estate purchased as residential rental property.

SEE: 3 Ways To Value Real Estate Investments

Valuing real estate using discounted cash flow or capitalization methods is similar to valuing stocks or bonds. The only difference is that cash flows are derived from leasing space as opposed to selling products and services. Read on to find to out how any investor can create a valuation satisfactory enough to weed through prospective investment opportunities.

Individual Valuations

Some individuals feel that producing a valuation is unnecessary if a certified appraisal has been completed. However, an investor’s valuation may differ from an appraisal for several reasons. The investor may have different opinions about the property’s ability to attract tenants or the lease rates that tenants are willing to pay. As a prospective purchaser or seller, the investor may feel that the property has more or less risk than the appraiser. Appraisers are compelled to conduct separate assessments of value. They include the cost to replace the property, a comparison of recent and comparable transactions and an income approach. Some of these methods commonly lag the market, underestimating value during uptrends, and overvaluing assets in a downtrend.

Finding opportunities in the real estate market involves finding properties that have been incorrectly valued by the market. This often means managing a property to a level that surpasses market expectations. A valuation should provide one’s estimate of the true income-producing potential of a property.

Real Estate Valuation

The income approach to evaluating real estate is similar to the process for valuing stocks, bonds, or any other income-generating investment. Most analysts use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to determine an asset’s net present value (NPV). NPV is the property value in today’s dollars that will achieve the investor’s risk adjusted return.The NPV is determined by discounting the periodic cash flow available to owners by the investor’s required rate of return (RROR). Since the RROR is an investor’s required rate of return for the risks involved, the value derived is a risk-adjusted value for that individual investor. By comparing this value to market prices, an investor is able to make a buy, hold, or sell decision.

Stock values are derived by discounting dividends, bond values by discounting interest coupon payments. Properties are valued by discounting net cash flow or the cash available to owners after all expenses have been deducted from leasing income. Valuing a property involves estimating all the rental revenues and then deducting all expenses required to execute and maintain those leases. (For tips, check out Golden Opportunity For Real Estate Investors.)

All income estimates come directly from leases. Leases are contractual agreements between tenants and a landlord. All rent and contractual increases in rent (escalations) will be spelled out in the leases, as well as options for space and rent concessions. Owners also recoup part or all of the property expenses from tenants. The manner in which this income is collected is also stated in the lease contract. There are three main types of leases:
In full-service leases, tenants do not pay anything in addition to rent. In net leases, tenants usually pay their portion of the increase in expenses for the period after they move into the property. In triple-net leases, the tenant pays a pro-rata share of all property expenses.

The following are the types of expenses that have to be considered when preparing an income valuation:
Leasing costs refer to the expenses necessary to attract tenants and to execute leases. Management costs refer to property level expenses, such as utilities, cleaning, taxes, etc. as well as any costs to manage the property. Income less operating expenses equals net operating income (NOI). NOI is the cash flow derived from normal operations of the property. Cash flow is then derived by subtracting capital costs from NOI. Capital costs are any periodic capital outlays to maintain the property. These include any capital for leasing commissions, tenant improvements, or capital reserves for future property upgrades. (Check out Closing A Real Estate Deal In A Down Market.)

Valuation Example

Once periodic cash flows are determined, they can be discounted back to determine property value. Figure 1 shows a simple valuation design that can be adjusted to value most properties.

Assumption Value Assumption Value
Growth in Income Yr1-10 (g) 4% Growth in Income Yr11+ (g) 3%
RROR (K) 13% Expenses % of Income 40%
Capital Expenses $10,000 Reversion Cap Rate (K-g) 10%
Figure 1

The valuation assumes a property that creates annual rental income of $100,000 in year one, which grows by 4% annually and 3% after year 10. Expenses are estimated at 40% of income. Capital reserves are modeled at $10,000 per year. The discount rate, or RROR, is set at 13%. The capitalization rate for determining the reversion value of the property in year 10 is estimated at 10%. In financial terminology, this capitalization rate equals K-g, where K is the investor’s RROR (required rate of return) and g is the expected growth in income. K-g is also known as the investor’s required income return, or the amount of the total return that is provided by income.

The value of the property in year 10 is derived by taking the estimated NOI for year 11 and dividing it by the capitalization rate. Assuming the investor’s required rate of return stays at 13% then the capitalization would equal 10%, or K-g (13% -3%). In Figure 2, NOI in year 11 is $88,812. After periodic cash flows are calculated, they are then discounted back by the discount rate (13%) to derive the NPV of $58,333.

Item Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11
Income 100 104 108.16 112.49 116.99 121.67 126.54 131.60 136.86 142.33 148.02
Expenses -40 -41.60 -43.26 -45 -46.80 -48.67 -50.62 -52.64 -54.74 -56.93 -59.21
Net Operating Income (NOI) 60 62.40 64.896 67.494 70.194 73.002 75.924 78.96 82.116 85.398 88.812
Capital -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -
Cash Flow (CF) 50 52.40 54.90 57.49 60.19 63 65.92 68.96 72.12 75.40 -
Reversion - - - - - - - - - 888.12 -
Total Cash Flow 50 52.40 54.90 57.49 60.19 63 65.92 68.96 72.12 963.52 -
Dividend Yield 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% -
Figure 2 (in thousands of dollars)

Figure 2 provides a basic format that can be used to value any income-producing or rental property. Investors purchasing residential real estate as rental property should prepare valuations to determine whether rental rates being charged are adequate enough to support the purchase price being paid. Although appraisers will often use a 10-year cash flow by default, investors should produce cash flows that mirror the assumptions on which the property is assumed to be purchased. This format, although simplified, can be adjusted to value any property, regardless of complexity. Even hotels can be valued this way. Just think of nightly room rentals as one-day leases.

SEE: Real Estate Deal-Breakers That Shouldn’t Be

Buy, Sell or Hold

When purchasing a property, if an investor’s assessed value is greater than the seller’s offer or appraised value, then the property can be purchased with a high probability of receiving the RROR. Conversely, when selling a property, if the assessed value is less than a buyer’s offer, the property should be sold. In addition, if the assessed value is in line with the market and the RROR offers an adequate return for the risk involved, the owner may decide to hold the investment until there is a disequilibrium between the valuation and market value.

Value can be defined as the greatest amount that someone would be willing to pay for a property. When purchasing an asset, financing should not affect the ultimate value of the property because each buyer has different financing options available. However this is not the case for investors who already own properties that have been financed. Financing must be considered when deciding on an appropriate time to sell because financing structures, such as prepayment penalties, can rob the investor of his or her sale’s proceeds. This is important in cases where investors have received favorable financing terms that are no longer available in the market. The existing investment with debt may provide better risk-adjusted returns than can be achieved when reinvesting the prospective sales proceeds. Adjust risk RROR to include the additional financial risk of mortgage debt.

The Bottom Line

Whether buying or selling, it is possible to produce a valuation model accurate enough to assist in the decision-making process. The math involved in creating the model is relatively straightforward and within the grasp of most investors. After gaining some rudimentary knowledge about local market standards, lease structures and how income and expenses work in different property types, one should be able to forecast future cash flows.

READ MORE: Homeowners, Beware These Scams!
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Britain universities in crisis

Universities in crisis as student numbers fall

Colleges that have offered most to poorer students will be biggest losers as impact of fees bites

London: More than 30 universities are facing a 10 per cent fall in student numbers this autumn, according to figures released Wednesday.

A breakdown of next year's university budgets shows that middle-ranking universities and former polytechnics will suffer as a result of the new funding system, which will see tuition fees rise to up to £9,000 a year.

Worst hit, according to the Higher Education Funding Council for England, will be the University of East London and the University of Bedfordshire, which are likely to suffer falls of 12 per cent.

In all, 34 universities in England will have their student numbers cut by at least 10 per cent.

HEFCE estimates there will be 10,900 fewer student places across the country. Academics said it was universities who had done the most to open themselves up to disadvantaged groups that appeared to be suffering the worst cuts.

By contrast, most of the members of the Russell Group – which represents most of the country's leading research institutions – are set to expand student numbers.

Michael Driscoll, chairman of the million+ university think tank and vice-chancellor of Middlesex University, said the overwhelming majority of institutions were losing student places.

"These allocations show the true extent of the Coalition's reform of fees and funding and the cutback in the overall number of university places being funded," he said.

Sally Hunt, general secretary of the University and College Union, added: "At a time when record numbers of people are out of work, the Government should be making it easier for people to access education."

Although overall student numbers have been cut, under the new system universities can recruit beyond their fixed target so long as they take in students with at least two As and a B at A-level.

In addition, 20,000 places have been set aside for higher education providers charging less than £7,500 a year.

As a result, elite universities with a higher percentage of AAB students tend to benefit, as do further education colleges charging lower fees. An extra 65 such colleges are receiving funding for higher education degrees for the first time.

According to HEFCE, just over 10,000 of the 20,000 places for low charging universities have gone to further education colleges. The shake-up appears to have created a "squeezed middle" among universities, which are unlikely to recruit large numbers of AAB students but are still charging higher fees.

Sir Alan Langlands, chief executive of HEFCE, said he did not believe the changes would see universities "going into substantial financial problems". "All of these can cope with this level of reduction," he added. He said they were all "confident they can ride it out". The Independent

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