The short-term impact is negative, but a start has to be made towards making money more expensive
IT’S strange how markets react sometimes. The short-term, knee-jerk, downward reaction is often difficult to understand even when the long-term benefits are obvious, and events signal the start of normalisation of very unusual and adverse circumstances.
But it is likely that the stock market’s adverse reaction to the increase by the US Federal Reserve of its key discount rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75% will be short-lived.
At the same time, it is also clear that stock markets may not see the kind of gains seen in 2009 when prices went up by about a half after the collapse of share prices in late 2008 following the world’s most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Two things happened to the markets – stock prices headed south while the US dollar headed north. That is the right way to go purely from a short-term point of view and it likely reflects that although the Fed’s move was expected, it came a bit sooner than the market expected.
Higher interest rates – and this move by the Fed without a doubt presages that – mean that investors will demand a higher rate of return from their holdings. That implies that stocks and bonds will have to fall accordingly.
On the currency side, it implies that holdings of US dollar assets will soon enough get higher interest rates. Accordingly, the US dollar rose to a nine-month high against the euro.
But these are short-term effects. The trillions of US dollars that have been injected into the US and other economies and the loose monetary policies followed all imply that at some time, inflation will become a serious concern.
Easy, cheap money helps to turn an ailing economy around and boosts confidence but prolonging it can be dangerous. That the Fed sees it fit to change its stance now is positive because it must feel that the threats to the system have been largely diffused.
Even so, it is too early to pop the champagne and bring out the glasses. It’s a long walk out of the woods and the way is fraught with unseen hurdles and obstacles. The weather can change in a thrice and the path can get slippery. It calls for a lot of good, careful footwork.
For us in Malaysia, one must reasonably expect that interest rates will begin a slow climb upwards as well. The economy is recovering, the fiscal stimulus measures have bitten and growth is on the cards again.
Our economic problems were not anywhere near as serious as those in developed countries affected by the world financial crisis but we have our own set of problems and we need to work our own solutions to these – and fast.
The world does not stand still and once it sorts out its problems – and it is well on the way to doing it – it will continue its inexorable march onwards. We simply cannot afford to be left behind.
Eyes are focused on what new trick we can conjure up to bring forth a flourish of growth and opportunities to push incomes up for all of us. It will be interesting to see how much structural change will be made to the broad economy.
The march towards normalisation of the world economy, which has started, puts more pressure on us to put our house in order. Nothing less than radical change is required to make the necessary impact.
● Managing editor P. Gunasegaram believes in the old, paradoxical saying that change is the only constant or is it the only constant is change? Never mind, they mean the same.
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