Housing affordability is an income issue, what's with the fuss?

Success story: The Pinnacle@Duxton, a HDB public housing estate, in the Tanjong Pagar district of Singapore. The HDB programme provides the government with an effective means to ensure targeted housing supply meant for community dwelling. – Bloomberg

Best practices from from HDB should be carefully studied

IT is increasingly a cause for concern to see the rising cost of living leading to a significant erosion of income. This results in more youths and job entrants unable to afford decent dwelling, be it in urban or sub-urban areas.

Therefore, it has become a pressing policy matter to find an effective solution to keep real estate prices in check. Many governmental agencies have been set up, but affordability remains a problem.

> Current state of health

From property developers to banks offering mortgages, the real estate sector supply chain has a high correlation with domestic economic performance.

According to the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), the Malaysian House Price Index growth has been moderating since 2014.

The index had eased to 7.2% in the fourth quarter last year, down from a 7.4% expansion in the previous quarter. It is the fifth consecutive quarter of slower pace of growth.

Similarly, Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth had tapered to 4.0% in the second quarter this year, down from 4.2% in the previous quarter.

Notwithstanding the current sluggish economic conditions, the pertinent issue surrounding the real estate segment is affordable housing.

>Severely unaffordable

Even though broad property prices growth have plateaued, the high absolute price to own a house continues to be out of reach for the common Malaysian.

According to the report “Making Housing Affordable” by Khazanah Research Institute, the overall Malaysian housing market is ‘seriously unaffordable’.

Using the “median-multiple ratio” standard by the United Nations Centre for Human Settlement at the World Bank, a housing market is considered “affordable” if the house price to household income ratio is below 3.0 times.

The study conducted by Khazanah Research Institute, following the latest available data by the Department of Statistics, indicated that the overall Malaysian median-multiple in 2014 was 4.4 times.

More worryingly, the median multiple ratio for Kuala Lumpur (5.4 times), Penang (5.2 times), Terengganu (5.5 times) and Sabah (5.1 times) are considered to be ‘severely unaffordable’.

According to NAPIC data in the first quarter of the year, the median residential property sale transaction price in Kuala Lumpur was within the range of RM400,000 to RM500,000.

Assuming that the property price is RM450,000, after paying the 10% down payment deposit and taking a 35- year tenure housing loan at 4.5% interest per annum, the monthly mortgage repayment comes up to slightly over RM1,900.

Meanwhile, the surveyed salary of a four-to-five-year experienced sales manager with a university degree was reportedly at between RM5,000 and RM8,000 per month, according to a local recruitment specialist report.

Effectively, this means that the manager is looking at a house-to-individual income ratio of 4.7 to 7.5 times if he or she were to purchase the Kuala Lumpur property on his or her own capacity.

Property price and value to Income per country in SEA 20014

Moreover, given Department of Statistics’ expectation of 1.2% annual population growth rate between 2016 and 2020, Malaysia’s demography will have to accommodate a projected 1.6 million more people by the end of the decade.

Housing is a pressing socioeconomic issue for the long term not only in Malaysia but also worldwide. It has to be sustainable and affordable.

 >Focus on sustainable supply side dynamics

Fundamentally, housing affordability is an income issue.

Given the high absolute value of real estates, household income – at a much lower base – would have to multiply much higher to catch up to the affordability threshold.

To extrapolate it further, even with higher income growth, would real estate ever be considered ‘affordable’?

A conventional profit maximisation motive could mean that property developers would eventually price their units in tandem with income growth rates, therefore creating the ever elusive ‘affordability’.

Keep in mind that there is no lack of demand for housing in Malaysia in light of the relatively young demographic.

In 2016, the estimated age group younger than 24 years old of around 13.4 million people makes up 43% of total population.

Besides, the average household size is expected to shrink from 4.6 people in 2000 to an estimated 4.0 people by the end of the decade, according to Khazanah Research Institute.

>More residential units would be required for dwelling.

Essentially, policy makers should focus more on the supply side dynamics to tackle the issue of home ownership and also on sustainable policies to ease the cost of ownership – especially for first- time home buyers.

Under the 11th Malaysia Plan, the government has already outlined the need for affordable housing – especially for the bottom 40% of households – to alleviate the increasing cost of living.

The government targets to provide 606,000 new affordable houses during course of the 11th Malaysia Plan spanning from 2016 to 2020, introduce an integrated database to match supply and demand dynamics and also establish a land bank for future affordable housing projects.

This would be a continuation of the Program Perumahan Rakyat 1Malaysia (PR1MA), Ruman Idaman Rakyat and Rumah Mesra Rakyat initiatives.

The government looks set to establish a land bank for houses and an integrated database for all relevant stakeholders to match demand and supply dynamics.

Across the straits, the Singapore Housing and Development Board (HDB) is often cited as a success story in providing affordable and quality homes.

The HDB programme is a comprehensive nationwide strategy that aligns the government’s legal powers to acquire land for public housing purposes, act as a central authority on township development, while leveraging on the Central Provident Fund as a financing means to ensure affordability.

Moreover, there is a holistic township planning whereby the development of physical HDB flat infrastructure is complemented by socioeconomic integration that promotes a cohesive society.

No doubt there are studies that indicate Singapore’s median multiple ratio is around 5.0 times in 2015, thereby classified as ‘severely unaffordable’.

The scarcity of land in the island state limits the potential for competitive supply of land.

Nevertheless, the comprehensive central planning that the Singapore government employs allows it to have a firm grip on keeping property prices in check.

In short, the HDB programme provides the government with an effective means to ensure targeted housing supply meant for community dwelling.

Given that Singapore’s home ownership rate has increased from 29% in the 1970s to close to 90% in 1990 and a vibrant resale market for the private sector, it is a considerable success story for providing quality living standards for the nation.

While it would likely be a gigantic task for other countries to emulate Singapore’s public housing policy from scratch in light of the legal matters of land and elements of socioeconomic welfare distribution, the best practices from HDB should be carefully studied.

>Housing matter should be top on policy priority

In Malaysia, land matter is a state matter. For a comprehensive public housing plan to take off, the government would have to put up an economically viable proposal to develop new townships across the nation with a cost effective structure.

The Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Ministry is mulling over the idea of developing a ‘Youth City’ township to cater to the young population.

Perhaps that could be a platform for the government to walk the talk and deliver value-added townships for affordable housing.

On the other end of the equation, besides providing dwelling space, real estate is also an asset class that yields cash flow from rental and also capital appreciation through time.

Therefore, it is imperative that the housing market price should never be trapped in an asset class bubble.

The 2008 United States’ sub-prime mortgage crisis serves as a grave reminder of the dire consequences and the impact on the real economy.

Fortunately, Bank Negara has already in place various macro-prudential policies since 2010 such as limiting loan-to-value ratio to 70% for home financing, and increase in real property gain tax to 10% for sales of real estate within two years to stem real estate market speculation activities.

In light of these, the recent consideration to allow property developers to offer home buyers financing at a much steeper financing cost of 12% interest rate per annum should be deliberated properly.

It is one matter to provide easier credit facility to own a property but it is an entirely different matter to compromise on the people’s capabilities to service the loan in the longer run and the spillover impact on real estate prices.

In short, housing is a necessity and it is imperative for authorities to have a policy interest in the issue.

The policy challenges going forward would only be more challenging as demand for housing continues to surge. It would be interesting to take stock of the plan that government has in mind come Budget 2017 on 21 October.

By Manokaran Mottain

Manokaran Mottain is the Chief Economist at Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd

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Malaysia no longer stuck in middle-income trap?

Stuck in the middle-income trap 

Attributing the positive development to the various reforms undertaken via the multi-year economic transformation programme (ETP), the Datuk Seri Idris Jala,(pic) CEO of Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu) points out that Malaysia’s GNI at US$10,570 (RM42,340) per capita last year is now only 15% away from the high-income-economy benchmark of US$12,475 per capita.

https://youtu.be/VrvY5QJVLlQ

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is no longer stuck in the middle-income trap, as its gross national income (GNI) is now progressively growing towards the high-income benchmark as defined by the World Bank, says Datuk Seri Idris Jala.

Attributing the positive development to the various reforms undertaken via the multi-year economic transformation programme (ETP), the CEO of Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu) points out that Malaysia’s GNI at US$10,570 (RM42,340) per capita last year is now only 15% away from the high-income-economy benchmark of US$12,475 per capita.

This compared with a gap of 33% between Malaysia’s GNI of US$8,280 per capita in 2010 and the then high-income economy threshold of US$12,276 per capita.

“As a result of the things we have been doing since 2010 and up to now, we have become completely unstuck (from the middle-income trap), with the gap (in Malaysia’s per capita GNI against the high-income threshold) now narrowed down to just 15%, compared with 33% in 2010,” Idris, who has been leading Pemandu, which is an agency under the Prime Minister’s Department, since 2010, said.

“The gap was even wider before 2010, and we could never close the gap for many years, resulting in many economists and financial experts proclaiming that Malaysia is stuck in the middle-income trap, and would not be able to become a high-income nation by 2020 unless we become unstuck,” he said in his keynote address on the Public Private Partnerships panel discussion here yesterday.

The panel discussion, jointly organised by research and publishing company The Business Year and education services provider Brickfields Asia College, was themed “Innovation as Driver for Local Economic Empowerment”.

According to Idris, Malaysia had managed to transform its economy, as a result of implementing innovative strategies. He said the Government remained confident of closing the GNI per capita gap and achieving the high-income target by 2020.

Under the ETP, the target was to achieve a GNI per capita of US$15,000 by 2020.

Meanwhile, in addition to GNI growth, Idris said Malaysia was also making good progress in the fiscal-sustainability space, as evident in the narrowing of the Government’s budget deficit and the continued manageability of its debt level.

The reduction of Malaysia’s fiscal deficit to 3.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) last year from 6.6% of GDP in 2009, for instance, was an indication of a stronger and more sustainable financial position. The country’s fiscal-deficit-to-GDP ratio was expected to reduce further to 3.1% by the end of 2016.

The Government debt-to-GDP level, on the other hand, would remain below the self-imposed limit of 55%. It stood at 53% last year.

“We have reduced subsides and implemented the goods and services tax (among the various economic reforms) to achieve fiscal sustainability,” Idris said.

“We have also put in a lot of effort to stimulate private investment growth” he added, noting that private investment growth had outpaced public investment since the launch of the ETP.

Idris said while there were still challenges in implementing economic reforms, Pemandu would continue to monitor closely the progress made by various government ministries.

“We are tracking all the investment projects one by one ... we want to make sure that all these projects are being implemented just as we said they would,” Idris said.

On the moderate growth of the country’s economy and gradual pace of fiscal-deficit reduction, Idris said these were a result of deliberate policy to ensure that Malaysia did not grow at the expense of accumulating more debts, or had its budget deficit cut drastically at the expense of the country’s economic growth.

Through this balancing act, Idris said, Malaysia had managed to stay in the “safe zone” in terms of debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit levels while maintaining a steady growth path. - Cecila Kok The Star

But in the same article, Danny Quah, professor of economics and international development at the London School of Economics, disagreed that Malaysia had moved past the middle-income trap.

Quah maintained his position on Saturday, at a panel discussion organised by Sunway University in Petaling Jaya.

He told the university’s students that Malaysia had been going after “low-hanging fruits” in policymaking, resulting in it being trapped in the middle-income status.

“We are now in a situation where we are in a good place, but we’ll not get past it to gain fully developed country status in Malaysia’s own mould,” he said.

Quah is of the view that Malaysia has become complacent about its achievements, and that the nation suffers from what economists call the “natural resource curse”.

The economist pointed out that only about one million out of the 30 million people in the country are paying income tax, noting that this small fiscal base would be unsustainable moving forward.

The problems are an unclear direction, lack of leadership commitment, high-level plans that are not practical, rigid implementation, a silo mentality and work approach, public demands and inputs not adequately obtained, poor accountability, and a lack of transparency and trust deficit.

Lifting Malaysia out of the middle income trap

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8 million more houses needed in Malaysia

MY attention was captured by a news entitled “The only place where housing is easily affordable” when reading The Times, a UK paper recently.

While I had expected some light on affordable housing solutions, I was surprised to find out that Copeland is the only area in England where house prices are less than three times the average annual salary of its residents.

According to the same article that quoted a research by UK Trade Union Congress (TUC), the number of “easily affordable” local authority areas across England has fallen from 72 to just one over the last 16 years. In prime areas, house prices reach as high as 32 times the average earnings of their residents.

Frances O’ Grady, the General Secretary of TUC which represents 6.2 million working people in the UK, called for an “ambitious programme” to bring the prices of homebuilding under control.

This resonates with the earlier comments made by the governor of the Bank of England (BoE) Mark Carney who said in May that the only long-term way to effectively bring down home prices is to build more homes.

In the UK, 63.8 million people lived in 26.4 million homes in 2012. This works out to about 2.4 persons per house.

There were calls for more homes even with such healthy ratio. Australia, which has a population of 21.5 million in 2013, has 9.1 million occupied houses or 2.4 persons per house.

At the recent World Class Sustainable Cities 2014 Conference, Kerry Doss from Brisbane City Council showed a slide presentation of persons per household over the past century.

As far back as 1927, Australia was already four persons per household. These made me reflect on the situation of our home country, especially since we too aspire to be a developed nation.

According to National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), we have a total of 4.7 million homes in the fourth quarter of 2013. As NAPIC does not track rural homes, we assume that only urbanites were taken into account in the survey.

This accounts for 70% of our 30 million population or 21 million people. Therefore, on average, there are 4.4 to 6.4 persons per household in our country.

This is a poorer ratio compared with Australia in 1927. This means we need to build four million to 7.8 million more houses to match the same ratio as the UK or Australia.

While we are aware that the Government aims to build one million affordable homes over a five-year timeline since last year, we still have quite a fair bit to catch up.

This is because we have only managed to build about 73,000 residential units per year for the last three years.

Under Budget 2015, it is encouraging to note that the Government plans to build 80,000 units under PR1MA and 63,000 units under another housing programme. This will bring the total planned units to 143,000. This figure is still way too low and the Government should consider building at least 200,000 units a year to meet the vision of one million affordable homes.

There should be a constant effort to track the progress of home-building. It is important to realise the goal of housing the nation by ensuring yearly targets are met.

Some of the measures that the Government can consider were recommended in my earlier articles.

They included freeing up state land for housing, purchasing agriculture land for development, building houses in rural areas and connecting them to the cities via public transports, as well as expediting the approval process to supply more houses to the market.

In addition to supplying more affordable homes to bring down prices of homes, there are also other factors to ensure that the rakyat have a roof over their heads.

In the same-mentioned article in The Times, Frances O’ Grady commented that, “Housing affordability isn’t just about house prices; decent wages are just as important.” I think it makes good sense and generates more food for thought for our nation.

By DATUK ALAN TONG

FIABCI Asia-Pacific regional secretariat chairman Datuk Alan Tong has over 50 years of experience in property development. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email feedback@fiabci-asiapacific.com

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Malaysia’s residential housing market ‘severely unaffordable’, said Demographia

Chang: 'For the past few years, HBA has sounded the alarm on the risk of a homeless generation.'

WHEN middle income professionals are unable to afford their own home based on a single income and have to team up with either a spouse or another person to qualify for a mortgage loan, then it is a sign that the unaffordability of our housing market has become critical.

A finding by US-based urban development researcher Demographia reveals Malaysia’s residential housing market is “severely unaffordable”, even more out of reach than residents in Singapore, Japan and the United States.

Demographia’s finding, cited by Singapore’s Straits Times in a report on Oct 14, rates housing as severely unffordable if the median of house price to annual income is 5.1 times.

Malaysia clocked in at 5.5 times, showing many Malaysians continue to be locked out of the housing market, compared with Singapore’s 5.1 times, while the United States’ and Japan’s housing markets were found to be “moderately unaffordable”.

Public interest group, National House Buyers Association (HBA) honorary secretary-general Chang Kim Loong says Demographia’s report supports HBA’s own finding that house prices, especially in the urban and sub-urban areas, have risen beyond the reach of many average Malaysians.

“For the past few years, HBA has sounded the alarm on the risk of a “homeless generation” made up of a growing number of young Malaysians especially the lower and middle income groups who are unable to afford their own home. When this homeless group grows in number, it can give rise to many other social problems,” he warns.

Siva: 'The fact that salaries have not kept up with the upswing in property prices have further worsened ... the situation.'

Chang says when even middle income professionals are unable to afford their own home based on a single income, the situation has become critical.

He says unless one is willing to be tied down by a long-term or back-breaking mortgage or mortgages, the high residential prices have rendered buying a house an increasingly uphill task, if not an impossible feat for the many lower income and average Malaysians.

“The skyrocketed prices have driven house buyers to take back breaking mortgages and many needed to combine their income in order to qualify for a mortgage, thus leaving them with very little or no savings after paying the monthly instalments and other basic necessities.

“This will place families at risk as they could fall into a deficit situation if any sudden emergencies happen to either of the borrowers,” Chang says.

He points out the possibility that in the event these borrowers cannot afford to pay their instalments and the banks are forced to auction off their properties, “there is a risk of a property bubble bursting, just like what happened during the sub-prime financial crisis in the US.”

“The borrowers and their dependents will also be faced with financial and emotional crisis that befalls their foreclosed property. Foreclosures can devastate a family’s economic and social standing, leaving them poorer instead,” Chang laments.

Chang says just six years ago it was still possible for a single middle level manager earning RM5,000 a month to buy a new double-storey link house in Kajang for less than RM250,000, and for a single executive earning RM3,000 a month to buy a new condominium in the Old Klang Road area for about RM200,000.

“Today, a new house in Kajang are in excess of RM700,000 but a middle level manager is just earning RM6,000 or thereabout a month. Recent launches of condominiums around Old Klang Road area are in excess of RM600,000, while the average salaries of executives are still around RM3,500 a month,” he laments.

He believes the maximum price that households with an monthly income of RM10,000 should purchase is only RM360,000 (RM120,000 x 3x).

“HBA has always stressed that affordable housing should be priced around RM150,000 to RM300,000, and not more then RM400,000 even for prime locations. Given that annual household income uses the assumption of two working spouses, there is a critical need for properties priced at RM150,000 to cater to single families and adults.

“We urge the government to further lower the threshold of affordable house price to between RM150,000 and RM300,000, and not more than RM400,00 even for prime locations,” Chang adds.

Chang says these houses, with minimum built-up of 800 sq ft and three bedrooms, need not come with fanciful finishing, but have just the bare necessities for a family’s comfort.

Stemming the greed

Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents (MIEA) president Siva Shanker concurs that the unaffordability housing issue has become critical over the past three to four years due to the sharp upswing in house prices.

“It was driven by the low entry costs with schemes such as no need for downpayment, developer interest bearing schemes and free stamp duty and legal fees, Although the Government has introduced various cooling measures and more responsible bank lending guidelines which has brought down the number of housing transactions, prices or value of houses still remain high.

“The fact that salaries have not kept up with the upswing in property prices have further worsened the unaffordability situation,” Siva explains.

HBA’s Chang points out the risks posed by “Investors’ Clubs” or “Millionaires Clubs” which are basically syndicated speculators incorporated by some ingenious individuals.

“They work in cahoot with developers, valuers and banks. Speculative buyers may be caught by the latest round of cooling measures. How the situation will pan out will depend on the holding capability of these speculators of which most of them may not have. Come hand-over time when it is time for these “investors” to flip their purchases, there may be a shortage of buyers for these properties, most of which were transacted at inflated and not real market value prices,” he warns.

Siva opines that the imposition of real property gains tax (RPGT) to tax gains from property transactions should be counted from the date of completion of the property and not from the signing of the sale and purchase agreement as what is being practised now.

This is given that it takes three years for high-rise residences to be delivered to buyers upon the signing of the sale and purchase agreement, and two years for landed property. Chang says the severity of the housing crisis for many Malaysians today calls for a workable housing delivery model to be put into action urgently before the problem spills over and cause more social problems in the country.

Housing the people has to be made the top thrust of the government and all possible measures need to be put to work fast and bottlenecks must be promptly addressed.

He says much more can be done to ensure a sustainable and orderly housing market for the people, stressing that holistic and concerted efforts need to be adopted.

“However, very often policies adopted are more for political expediency rather than for the betterment of the people.

“We need a single umbrella to monitor, regulate and police the performance of the various agencies that are entrusted with the role to ensure affordable housing index are met and properly distributed to the deserving ones. They must build the right quantity of the right property, at the right location, for the right populace, and at the right price.

“There must be full transparency on the location, number of units, registration and balloting process to ensure fairness to all eligible buyers,” Chang stresses.

A single database will enable individuals to learn about the availability of the affordable housing in their communities or in the communities they planned to move to, and understand financing options avail to them.

Siva also calls for a central planning and delivery agency to plan and coordinate all the affordable housing needs of the people. “The whole process should be totally transparent with a master registry to record all the database of applicants and successful candidates. There should also be a moratorium period of up to 10 years to ensure that the successful candidates offered these affordable housing will not be able to dispose these homes for quick profit.

“The federal and state governments should provide the land and other forms of incentives to encourage private developers to lend their support for these affordable housing schemes,” Siva says.

Chang agrees that giving incentives to developers that build affordable housing will motivate them to throw in their support to build more of such housing units, adding that building up the infrastructure connectivity to the still relatively undeveloped areas will make these places more accessible and improve demand for property in those places.

“HBA has proposed to the government to take the lead by unlocking more of its vast land banks to build affordable housing for the people.

“The reason why developers are not chipping in to build more affordable housing units is because of the so-called profit maximisation by industry players. It is either high-rise multiple hundred units or high-end luxury units. Very often it is a combination of both - luxurious high-end units.I have not heard of developers building single-storey terrace houses that were so prevalent in the past. Developers are refusing to build such price and low margin items and will rather focus on higher margin items. With land being a scarce resource, developers will maximise the value of their land banks.

“If the land comes from the federal and state governments, private developers will be more willing to throw in their support to develop affordable housing for those in need,” Chang concludes.

Source: ANGIE NG The Star/Asia News Network


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 Malaysian homes more unaffordable than Singapore, Japan and US; Budget 2015 brings little joy

Malaysian homes more unaffordable than Singapore, Japan and the US; Budget 2015 brings little joy

File picture shows houses under construction in Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia has a ‘severely unaffordable’ residential homes market, according to researcher Demographia.— AFP

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 13 — Malaysia has a “severely unaffordable” residential homes market, with housing even more out of reach for its residents than in Singapore, Japan and the United States, according to US-based urban development researcher Demographia.

Demographia’s report was cited today in a report in Singapore’s Straits Times newspaper to highlight how many Malaysians continue to be locked out of the residential housing market despite the federal government’s attempt at helping first-time house buyers.

According to the ST report, Demographia rates housing as severely unaffordable if it is 5.1 times median annual income. Malaysia clocks in at 5.5x, higher than Singapore’s 5.1x, while housing in the United States and Japan is “moderately unaffordable”.

Government data cited by the ST report shows that since 2012 median monthly household income has risen eight per cent annually to RM4,258, slower than the average housing price increase of 10 per cent to RM280,886.

The country’s consumer price index has risen by an average of 3.3 per cent this year and Putrajaya had warned it may spike by 5 per cent next year, tripling the 2013 average.

In presenting Budget 2015 last Friday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak introduced a Youth Housing Scheme that will waive down-payments and subsidise ownership by up to RM10,000 for 20,000 married couples under 40.

Najib also said the government would provide another 80,000 new homes priced at RM100,000 to RM400,000 under the 1Malaysia People’s Housing Programme (PR1MA).

Both schemes, including the existing My First Home (MFH) scheme are only for households with a combined monthly income of less than RM10,000.

According to Bank Negara only a third of My First Home applicants received loans in the first year, as banks refused to take risks.

And PR1MA has seen just 761 buyers for the 160,000 units launched since 2013.

“We earn just over that but it’s not enough for savings. We can convert rent into loan repayments but we can’t pay the 10 per cent deposit,” lawyer Puteri Mohamad told the Straits Times in commenting on the Budget proposal to help households earning less than RM10,000 monthly to buy homes.

Office administrator Mimie Azriene Mohd Zin, 32, has no children but she and her technician husband have applied for a PR1MA home.

But she told the Straits Times they have not figured out how to afford the down payment on their combined income of under RM4,000 a month that leaves them with little savings living in expensive Kuala Lumpur.

“We might not even be able to afford the repayment but we have to try before prices go up further,” she told the daily.

Source:  http://www.themalaymailonline.com/

Malaysia's budget aid brings little joy to house hunters

Despite being a partner in a law firm just outside Kuala Lumpur, Ms. Puteri Mohamad, and her fiance, can only watch as apartments in the area where she lives spiral above 500,000 ringgit (US$153,334).

When the government proposed measures in its 2015 Budget — released on Friday — to help households earning less than 10,000 ringgit (US$3,067) monthly to buy homes, she was not at all elated.

“We earn just over that but it's not enough for savings. We can convert rent into loan repayments but we can't pay the 10 percent deposit,” said Puteri, 33, who lives in a rented flat in Petaling Jaya.

Many Malaysians like her find themselves locked out by a combination of what U.S.-based urban development researcher Demographia rates as a “severely unaffordable” residential market and accelerating inflation.

Malaysia's consumer price index — which includes many subsidized goods — has risen by an average of 3.3 percent so far this year and the government warns it may spike by 5 percent next year, nearly triple the 2013 average.

Government data shows that since 2012 median monthly household income has risen 8 percent annually to 4,258 ringgit, slower than the average housing price increase of 10 percent to 280,886 ringgit.

Demographia rates housing as severely unaffordable if it is 5.1 times median annual income.

Malaysia clocks in at 5.5x, higher than Singapore's 5.1x, while housing in the United States and Japan is “moderately unaffordable.”

Prime minister Najib Razak said in his budget speech the government would provide another 80,000 affordable homes (priced at 100,000 ringgit to 400,000 ringgit) under the 1Malaysia People's Housing Programme (PR1MA) and introduce the Youth Housing Scheme that will waive downpayments and subsidize ownership by up to 10,000 ringgit for 20,000 married couples under the age of 40.

Both schemes, as well as the existing downpayment waiver under the My First Home scheme, are only for households with a combined monthly income of less than 10,000 ringgit.

The National Housebuyers Association lauded the moves to help aspiring homeowners in financing but criticized the lack of new measures to cool rising prices that are the root of the problem.

Its secretary-general, Chang Kim Loong, said speculators have taken advantage of the low entry cost of buying a property at the expense of genuine buyers.

Office administrator Mimie Azriene Mohd Zin, 32, has no children but she and her technician husband have been unable to even think of home ownership until these schemes came along.

They applied for a PR1MA home, which the government says is priced 20 percent lower than comparable units, worth about 200,000 ringgit three months ago.

But they have not figured out how to afford the downpayment on their combined income of under 4,000 ringgit a month that leaves them with little savings living in expensive Kuala Lumpur.

“We might not even be able to afford the repayment but we have to try before prices go up further,” she said.

That is, if she can get a loan in the first place. The central bank reported that only a third of My First Home applicants in the first year received loans as banks refused to take the risk.

Tellingly, even PR1MA saw just 761 buyers for the 160,000 units launched since 2013.

BY By Shannon Teoh, The Straits Times/Asia News Network

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Rejuvenating George Town, Penang

Three sound recommendations for Penang to break out of the middle income trap

 THINK ASIAN By ANDREW SHENG

EVERY time I open my window, I see paradise – not heaven, but a neon sign for Paradise hotel in Penang island or more precisely, George Town, Pulau Pinang.

Situated at the entrance to the Malacca Straits, directly opposite Kedah Peak, the city was founded by Sir Francis Light in 1786 as the first English bridgehead to East Asia.

Since then, George Town has been a melting pot for Armenians, Arabs, Malays, Indians, Chinese and European travellers passing through the Far East.

At its height at the end of the 19th century, the city boasted the earliest bank branches in the country with key trading ties to Sumatra, Burma, Southern Thailand and Northern Malaya.

Like people and countries, cities have their ups and downs. When I first set eyes on Penang, my first impression was green rice-fields from the airport to a tree-lined city with a lovely, relaxed colonial feel.

George Town boasted the oldest and arguably best schools in the Far East. After duty-free status was removed and Sumatra and Southern Thailand went through a period of relative decline, the Penang economy had to reinvent itself, initially with the electronics industry.

But by the turn of the 21st century, even the electronics industry felt under threat as Penang talent left for richer shores.

What should Penang do?

A recent joint study by the World Bank and Khazanah Nasional Bhd brings forth a timely and well-researched book, “Cities, People and the Economy – a study on Positioning Penang” to discuss how Penang can escape the middle income trap.

Drawing on empirical studies by a team of internationally-renowned researchers, the book examines how the State of Penang needs to re-invent itself.

Having been successful in becoming industrialised through cheap labour, subsidised infrastructure and available land for low-tech manufacturing, Penang must now focus on developing industries which bring new competitiveness against the growing giants of India and China and other middle-income countries that are eating into Penang’s traditional strengths.

The editors of the book comprise three eminent economists who are clearly concerned about the need for Penang to reinvent itself.

Homi Kharas was formerly the chief economist for East Asia for the World Bank and currently at the Brookings Institution and a member of the National Economic Advisory Council.

Dr Albert Zeufack is a Cameroon national, formerly with the World Bank and currently working for Khazanah. Hamdan Majeed is the energetic head of the Penang office of Khazanah and deeply committed to Penang’s revival.

The central thesis of the book is that the three elements of Penang’s growth – its cities, people and economy – are not developing in tandem and that their cycles of development must be synchronised to turn Penang around.

Fortunately, following George Town’s world heritage designation, the urban cycle is starting to enter a recovery phase. But the challenge is that the people cycle is still in a deficit phase, with new graduates choosing to leave the area, while the economy is caught in a slump.

The authors carefully argue that a new development strategy must be articulated that can guide Penang to better wages, jobs and prospects for the next generation.

Penang must move from the old “sweatshop” assembly model to become a “smartshop” for sustainable products. Restoring lustre to the “Pearl of the Orient” does not have a simple engineering fix.

Instead, Penang must do different things and do them differently. Given its strong track record of economic success, Penang must set a new multidimensional agenda to become the most vibrant economic hub for its economic geographic advantages – the northern Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, Southern Thailand and through good air and telecommunications, South, North and Southeast Asia.

Given its strong base of human talent, with affinity for community harmony and creativity, particularly in the culinary and service area, Penang offers the best opportunity to break out through innovation and change.

The book offers three sound recommendations to break out of the middle income trap. The first is to exploit economies of scale through specialisation, focusing on a few products where it is possible to achieve global excellence.

The six focus areas identified are technology-based manufacturing, biotechnology/life sciences, business process outsourcing (BPO), logistics, tourism and agribusiness.

Secondly, Penang must build density on the basis of an integrated land use plan while also ensuring efficient connectivity with the capital city.

Thirdly, Penang needs to increase its “liveability” factor, which is the key factor determining competition for top global talent.

Underlying the strategic concept is the premise on what the Government can do to facilitate sustained development in a middle income region.

Penang’s experience will provide valuable lessons for other states in Malaysia. What makes this book valuable is that it offers a development strategy that can be applied not just for Penang but also Malaysia as a whole.

It recognises that a city (and a nation) has to understand its place in the global economy and in regional supply chains.

Penang, and by extension Malaysia, can become an advanced economy by 2020 if it becomes globally connected, regionally oriented and locally centred.

But it can only do so if all parts of the nation, city and rural areas work together through efficient connectivity. What comes through the book is that Penang’s development is not a stand-alone objective.

Put simply, Malaysia’s targets of the New Economic Model cannot be achieved without successful development in Penang. Greater density of economic activity in the Northern Corridor will benefit all states and accelerate the reduction of poverty in Malaysia.

Thus, if the Northern Corridor can escape the middle income trap, then, so can Malaysia. This is a timely and relevant book as it comes out at the same time as the 10th Malaysia Plan.

The book will be useful for policy makers and those interested in the rejuvenation of cities as engines of economic development. It will also help interested citizens to understand how cities can change. George Town has always been a jewel in the Orient, which is why I live here.

■ Tan Sri Andrew Sheng is adjunct professor at Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, and Tsinghua University, Beijing. He has served in key positions at Bank Negara, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently a member of Malaysia’s National Economic Advisory Council. He is the author of the book “From Asian to Global Financial Crisis”.