To channel 
Mark Twain, it appears that rumors of the death of  buy-and-hold investing have been greatly exaggerated. Had you simply  stayed put in a low-stress, completely pedestrian collection of equity  and bond funds, including 
index funds,  over the past few years and continued to contribute to them you would  have actually outperformed the market. In other words, a little inertia  can be a very good thing.
The obvious argument for buying and  holding is that if you try to time the markets it's well nigh impossible  that you will sell at the very top or buy back into the market at the  very bottom. Blowing this timing can deliver more than a small, smarting  tweak to your portfolio in our bubble-prone economy where highs can be  dizzying and the lows crushing. A good chunk of the recovery will happen  in its very first few days, and the crashes can be swift, too. Good  luck trying to call these moves perfectly. You’ll need it. 
Javier Estrada, professor at the IESE  Business School in Barcelona, has proved just how much damage can be  wrought by pulling out of the markets at the wrong time. Estrada 
analyzed the Dow Jones industrial average from 1900  through the end of 2007. He found that $100 invested in 1900 would  have returned $25,746 by the end of his study. Yet if you missed just  the 10 best days of that entire ride your total pot at the end would be  $9,008, almost two-thirds less than maintaining constant market  exposure. Had you missed the best 100 days you would have earned just  $87 in that century-plus stretch.
The flip side, of course, is  that if you avoid the worst days you also outperform. Had you missed the  worst 10 days of Dow losses you would have seen your total rise to  $78,781. The worst 100 would have earned you $11,198,734.
What this shows is that while timing the markets right can earn you a  lot of money, you can also lose a lot. If you are investing for your  retirement this is an awfully dangerous gamble. For many investors it  may be a better idea to invest in a range of index funds, set it up so  you dollar-cost average on a monthly basis, and basically forget about  trying to micro-manage it. 
Morningstar recently tabulated a  decade's worth of data and compared how the average investor did vs. the  average fund. The answer was that over the past 10 years investors did  considerably worse, seeing returns of 1.68%, against 3.2% for all funds,  meaning investors were generally off with how they timed their  purchases and sales.
In addition Vanguard recently documented the benefits of standing pat  in its study "Resilience in volatile markets: 401(k) participation  behavior September 2007-December 2009." What the study found was that  during a time of exceptional volatility the average defined contribution  investor at Vanguard barely altered their saving and investment  behavior. On the face of it this sounds like heresy: We are being told  more than ever to keep a close eye on our money, and to, in essence,  become our own investment managers. But this consistency yielded  surprisingly good returns for Vanguard's retirement-centered investors,  mitigating the downside of 2008 considerably.
In 2008 during the  height of the credit crisis and the stock market meltdown, Vanguard  found that traders shifted just 4% of their assets from equities to  fixed income. In 2009 that number was 1%. Between September 2007 and  December 2009 only 3% of participants abandoned equities.
This might sound like a recipe for  financial suicide, but it was the opposite. Since most 401(k) investors  at Vanguard kept up their contributions, the median participant account  balance actually grew by 10%, vs. a 25% decline for the markets during  the time above. The beauty of all this was during the worst financial  crisis in several decades those who stayed put, whether by design or  simple inertia, ended up buying a lot of securities at the bottom and  making money.
What this means is that despite a hyperventilating  financial media and daily reports of doom and gloom, most people who  stuck with a plan of investing in a balanced portfolio of diversified  equity, balanced and bond funds, including indexes, experienced far less  volatility. They were able to build on their portfolios during a crisis  and buy at the bottom. This paid off in 2009 when median account  balances grew by 33% at Vanguard against a 26.5% rise for the 
S&P 500.
Vanguard is the leading name in  indexing, a passive way of owning securities that mirror the investment  performance of the world's financial markets. Many, 
including  Vanguard founder John Bogle, argue that indexing remains the  easiest, most cost-efficient way for the average investor to invest.
Of  course there are arguments to be made against buying and holding  indexes. The leading argument is that there are skilled investors that  have consistently beaten the markets. This may well be true, but there  are caveats to putting your money with a great money manager. The  biggest caveat, again, is timing.
Fund managers Ken Heebner, manager of the CGM Fund; and 
Bill Miller, of 
Legg  Mason's 		 	(       
LM  - 	
        news      -     
        people     ) Value Trust both have earned well-deserved praise for their  abilities to beat the 
Standard & Poor's 500 during their respective  tenures as the heads of their respective funds. No one can, or would  try, to take this away from them. Yet both of these guys lagged the  markets for years, even decades. Rare is the investor with the fortitude  to stick through almost 20 years of losses, compared with the market,  to reap later gains.
Let's start with Heebner: He became manager  of his fund on the first day of 1981. From that day until March 22, 2010  he beat the S&P 500, but it was closer than you might think,  according to data supplied by Morningstar. In that time Heebner earned  annualized returns of 10.93% against the market's 10.67%. Again, all  credit to Heebner. It should also be noted that Heebner badly lagged the  markets through the end of 1999, returning 15% against the market's  17.2%.
This means that $10,000 invested with Heebner, if you  stayed for the whole ride, would now be worth $207,420, against $193,389  for the S&P 500. Yet what if you stuck with him through the end of  1999 and, entering a new decade, simply got fed up? You would have had  returns of $143,228 from Heebner against $202,586 for the S&P.
It's possible you would have bailed at that point. CGM couldn't  provide data as to how many, if any, investors fled the fund, but assets  certainly dwindled after 1999. By the end of the year Heebner's fund  had $909 million under management, which shrank to $654 million by the  end of 2000, and bottomed at $376 million by the end of 2002. For those  who hung tight, the story had a happy ending, though, as Heebner ended  up beating the markets over the past decade, by a nice margin. As of the  end of 2009 the fund had $549 million in assets under management. Yet  the ride was not smooth.
Bill Miller has managed the Value Trust  since April 17, 1982. If you had stayed with him for the whole ride you  would have, again, beaten the markets. The value of $10,000 invested at  the start of his tenure would be worth $245,579 as of March 22, against  $219,441 for the markets. Impressive. The actual annualized percentage  points were closer, with Miller's fund earning 12.1% against 11.7% for  the markets. Miller's fund has seen a reversal of fortune over the past  decade, though, earning annualized total returns of -2.7% against the  market's -0.7%.
(One irony: Despite making more money  during his time managing the Value Trust, Miller's fund currently has  one star from Morningstar against five for Heebner's.)
Miller saw  his assets shrivel during a tough period, in his case 2006 through 2008,  only to have the fund roar back to life in 2009. Once again nervous  investors missed the ride. As Miller himself noted in a 2008 letter to  shareholders, "We (and everyone else) get the most inflows and the most  interest AFTER we've done well, and the most redemptions and client  terminations AFTER we've done poorly. It will always be so, because that  is the way people behave."
Some people, that is. 
So while  it may be better to lucky than good, sometimes it's better to be lazy  than smart.
David  Serchuk, 
03.29.10, 06:00 AM EDT