Batang Kali British Massacre Victims have a legal respite

Families of Batang Kali massacre victims finally have legal respite

KUALA LUMPUR: Descendants and families of the 24 civilians who died in the “Batang Kali massacre” of 1948 during British rule finally have a legal respite.

In an unprecedented breakthrough, the families, through their lawyers, will get a chance to argue their case in the British High Court next week.

We want the British government to clear the names of the families. -Tan Hai Kee

 

The judicial review test case on the alleged brutal killings of the unarmed rubber tappers by British soldiers has been fixed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Action Committee Condemning the Batang Kali Massacre adviser and founder Tan Hai Kee said the hearing would be fully funded by British taxpayers.

“It will be a significant breakthrough for Malaysian civilians and NGOs in challenging the British Government's decision.

“We want the British government to clear the names of the families, as the tappers were branded as bandits and communist insurgents,” he said after a briefing and prayer ceremony at the Kuala Lumpur and Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall yesterday.

On Dec 12, 1948, about a dozen elite Scots Guards went into a village in Batang Kali and separated women and children from the men. They then allegedly executed all but one of the men who pretended to be dead.

Some of the bodies were later decapitated and their genitals smashed. The Guardsmen claimed the victims were armed and tried to escape but the committee countered that this was a cover-up.

The committee submitted a petition to the British government twice, first in March 2008 via the High Commission and another in November 2010 addressed to Queen Elizabeth II.

The first petition sought an apology and compensation of £80mil (RM393mil) but Tan said monetary gain was not the main issue.

By REGINA LEE
regina@thestar.com.my

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The euro crisis just got a whole lot worse

With Europe plunging back into recession and unemployment soaring, Francois Hollande, the French president elect, is calling for growth objectives to be reprioritised over the chemotherapy of austerity. 

Riot policemen lead away a protester holding a placard reading 'Let's get out of the Euro' during May Day demonstrations in Neumuenster, Germany Photo: Reuters

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has meanwhile continued to insist that on the contrary, Europe must persist with the hairshirt. What's needed is political courage and creativity, not more billions thrown away in fiscal stimulus. Stick with the programme, she urges, as the anti-austerity backlash reaches the point of outright political insurrection.

Hollande and Merkel are, of course, both wrong. What Europe really needs is a return to free-floating sovereign currencies. Only then will Europe's seemingly interminable debt crisis be lastingly resolved. All the rest is just so much prancing around the goalposts, or an attempt to make the fundamentally unworkable somehow work.

The latest eurozone data are truly shocking, much worse in its implications both for us and them than news last week of a double-dip recession in the UK.

Even in Germany, unemployment is now rising, with a lot more to come judging by the sharp deterioration in manufacturing confidence. For Spanish youth, unemployment has become a way of life, with more young people now out of a job (51.1pc) than in one. In contrast to the US, where the unemployment rate is falling, joblessness in the eurozone as a whole has now reached nearly 11pc. Against these eye-popping numbers, Britain might almost reasonably take pride in its still intolerable 8.3pc unemployment rate.

There is only one boom business in Spain these days – teaching English and German. No prizes for guessing where these students are heading.

Hollande's opportunism in calling for a growth strategy he must know cannot be delivered looks like being answered only by intensifying recession. Maybe Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, will surprise us after Thursday's meeting with a rate cut and a eurozone-wide programme of quantitative easing. But even if he did, it wouldn't fix the underlying problem, which is one of lost competitiveness manifested in ever more intractable levels of external indebtedness.

To think these problems can be solved either by fiscal austerity or, as advocated by Hollande and others, by its polar opposite of fiscal expansionism is to descend into fantasy.

By reinforcing the cycle, and thereby exacerbating the slump, fiscal austerity is proving self-defeating. Far from easing the problem of excessive indebtedness, it is only making it worse.

But it is equally absurd to believe that countries in the midst of a fiscal crisis can borrow their way back to growth. Who is going to lend with the certainty of a haircut or eurozone break-up to come?

I've been looking at the comparative numbers on fiscal consolidation, and they reveal some striking differences. The hairshirt prescribed for others is most assuredly not being donned by austerity's cheerleader in chief, Germany.

In fact, German government consumption is continuing to rise quite strongly, even in real terms, and the fiscal squeeze pencilled in by Berlin for itself for the next three years is marginal compared with virtually everyone else. Germany is requiring others to adopt policies it has no intention of following itself. What's so odd about that, you might ask?

Right to spend

Germany has earned the right to spend through years of prior restraint. It's got no structural deficit to speak of and, in any case, isn't that the way things are meant to work, with those capable of some fiscal expansionism compensating for the squeeze imposed by others?

All these things are true, but there is something faintly hypocritical about a country prescribing policy for others that it wouldn't dream of imposing on itself. Germany's supposed love of self-flagellation is actually something of a myth.

By the way, despite the rhetoric, Britain is hardly an outrider on austerity either. Now admittedly, the Coalition's plans for fiscal consolidation have been somewhat derailed by economic stagnation. We were meant to be further along than we are. But in terms of what's left to do, the UK is no more than middle of the pack.

On current plans, by contrast, the fiscal squeeze in the US, land of supposed fiscal expansionism, ratchets up substantially to something quite a bit bigger than what the UK has pencilled in for the next two years. It remains to be seen what effect that's going to have on the American recovery. Will renewed growth melt away as surely as it did in early 2011, or is it self-sustaining this time?

Back in the eurozone, the stand-off between creditor and debtor nations shows few, if any, signs of meaningful resolution. During the recession of the early 1990s, there was a famous British Property Federation dinner at which the chairman introduced the then chief executive of Barclays Bank, Andrew Buxton, as "a man to whom we owe, er, more than we can ever repay". It was a good joke, but it also neatly encapsulated what happens in all debt crises.

When the debtor borrows more than he can afford, the creditor will in the end always take a hit. The only thing left to talk about is how the burden is to be shared. The idea that you can force the debtor to repay by depriving him of his means of income is a logical absurdity, yet this is effectively what's going on in the eurozone.

When such imbalances develop between countries, they are normally settled by devaluation, which provides a natural market mechanism both for restoring competitiveness in the debtor nation and establishing the correct level of burden sharing.

Least tortuous form of default

It's default in all but name, but it is the least tortuous form of it. Free-floating sovereign exchange rates also provide a natural check on the build-up of such imbalances in the first place.

The reason things got so out of hand in the eurozone is that investors assumed in lending to the periphery that they were effectively underwritten by the core, mistakenly as it turned out. Interest rates therefore converged on those of the most creditworthy, Germany, allowing an unrestrained credit boom to develop in the deficit nations.

None of this is going to be solved by austerity. For now, there is no majority in any eurozone country for leaving the single currency, but one thing is certain: nation states won't allow themselves to be locked into permanent recession. Eventually, national solutions will be sought.

The whole thing is held together only by the fear that leaving will induce something even worse than the current austerity. This is not a formula for lasting monetary union.

By Jeremy Warner - Telegraph  

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Demise of US dollar as world currency

Experts see demise of dollar as world currency

 By DORIS C DUMLAO and MICHELLE V. REMO

IT may only be a matter of time before the US dollar gets replaced as the main currency in international trade, according to economists attending the meeting of the board of governors of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila.

Asian Development Bank, ADB

For many years, the dollar “has been almost the sole ‘reserve’ currency,” banked on by the world economy, American economist Jeffrey Sachs said on Thursday in one of the forums held during the ADB annual event. “Going forward, (the dollar) can’t play that role anymore.”

Sachs added that he could not see how the US dollar could remain as the world’s reserve currency when “the role of the United States in the global economy is diminishing.”

Several finance experts echoed Sachs’ sentiment, explaining that, with the greenback expected to weaken further, the world should turn to another currency to facilitate international trade and other commercial transactions.

“Having another reserve currency other than the US dollar is only a matter of time. We don’t know exactly when it will happen, but it will,” Neeraj Swaroop of Standard Chartered Bank said in an interview at the sidelines of the ADB meeting.

In the area of merchandise trading, Swaroop said, countries have actually started to use currencies other than the US dollar.

Sachs also said that some countries could turn to more than one currency in maintaining their foreign exchange reserves.

One currency being considered is the Chinese renminbi (RMB) which, according to HSBC, will inevitably become an international reserve currency.

The renminbi, or yuan, has the potential to become an international reserve currency because China is continuing to post strong growth, becoming an important player in the global economy, Iwan Azis, ADB head for regional integration, said in the same forum.

Also, China is pushing to make the yuan the world’s reserve currency – a move that is seen to hasten the replacement of the US dollar, Azis added.

Already, British banking giant HSBC has mapped out a strategy to be a leading global player in the “renminbi banking” space.

This global strategy has filtered into the Philippine market with the bank’s introduction of RMB-denominated deposit and trade financing facilities, top HSBC officials said in a press briefing on Thursday.

Spencer Lake of HSBC said the renminbi was increasingly becoming an important currency from a trade perspective.

Lake was in Manila as head of the HSBC delegation to the ADB event.

“If it were freely convertible today, it will be the second-largest currency in the world,” Lake said, noting that China has started to liberalise currency systems.

“It’s part of our core strategy to adopt and put in place all of the infrastructure and products to embrace (the renminbi) as a future reserve currency,” Lake said.

Lake said the bank’s strategy appeared to be gaining ground as indicated by a “significant” buildup of the RMB business in Hong Kong, Singapore and other South-East Asian countries.

“The world is getting ready to adopt it as a world currency,” he said. “You’ll see it as a more common language.”

“Reserve” currency, which is currently used to describe the US dollar, is the denomination that accounts for bulk of the foreign exchange reserves of most countries.

A country taps its foreign exchange reserves whenever it needs to pay off the costs of imported products and debts to foreign creditors.

After the United States fell into a recession in 2009, the US dollar began to weaken against emerging market currencies.

The trouble with hanging on to the dollar as the main reserve currency is that it is prone to depreciation given the prevailing economic troubles of the United States.

Depreciation of the US dollar, in turn, may lead to a reduction in the value of a country’s foreign reserves, experts said.

Apart from the yuan, Sachs said other viable currencies that could replace the US dollar were the euro and the Japanese yen. — Philippine Daily Inquirer / Asia News Network   

Trust deficits - US-China Relations

 

The conductor: At the opening ceremony for the U.S.-China Strategic

and Economic Dialogue, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton introduces

an unnamed U.S. official to China's State Councilor Dai Bingguo. Tense

circumstances due to the case of Chen Guangcheng have put all her

diplomatic skills to the test.

Lack of Mutual Sino-U.S. Military Trust a Major Threat

Is Washington encouraging the Philippines and Vietnam to challenge China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea? In this editorial from the Global Times, which reads like a summary of what the U.S. and China have been discussing since Friday, Beijing warns the U.S. not to try to make up for its economic weakness with what it regards as foolish military adventurism.

The China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue pertaining to military cooperation and the visit by China Defense Minister Liang Guanglie to America are important events for military exchanges between the countries. These will create a certain degree of relaxation and ease their long-running military confrontation. Such an atmosphere is essential to improving ties, as it reduces the damage and the significance of the friction over specific matters. [reference to controversy over Chen Guangcheng].

Military trust should be amassed by resolving disputes over China's sea territory [reference to the South China Sea], and through a process of boosting mutual understanding and adapting to circumstances as they arise. This will help build a foundation for the two nations to avoid misinterpreting military maneuvers by the other.

Thus, both nations must have a clear and accurate understanding of one another. It is unwise for the United States to look down on China as a mere land force that can only play a limited regional role. Because China has interests around the world, it is essential for its military to extend its reach further. Neither should China view the presence of the U.S. military in Asia as illegal or ignore America’s special influence over global security. China must accept the truth that the U.S. is an essential power in the region.

The objective of achieving mutual military trust will never be reached if China seeks to squeeze the United States out to lead Asia on its own, nor if the U.S. seeks to constrain the rise in China's military strength. Luckily, neither Beijing nor Washington has such aims.

Now, as their interests and objectives overlap, each country is in a defensive crouch in relation to the other, giving an opening to brief confrontations. Since the United States has announced its return to Asia, the respective bottom lines of both nations concerning the South China Sea have come close to clashing.

Although analysts still see the possibility of a military conflict in the South China Sea as slim, once the two sides enter into an arms race and making displays of military strength, all efforts to build mutual trust will be ruined.

Competing territorial claims in the South China Sea: China sees

the United States meddling, whereas other nations in the region

regard the U.S. as playing a balancing role. 

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Philippines slammed for hiding poor & slums during ADB event!

 Gov't hit for 'hiding' poor at ADB meet

MANILA, Philippines - Rights groups and unions slammed the Philippines Friday, May 4, after it erected advertising hoardings that hid slum housing from delegates attending a conference on solving poverty in Asia.

A Philippine policeman (R) argues with foreign delegates to the Asian Development Bank board of governors annual meeting (AFP, Ted Aljibe)

The giant boards were put up beside a road taking 4,300 delegates from Manila airport to the Asian Development Bank meeting that began on Wednesday, May 2, blocking the view of an open sewer and shanties.

The boards advertised Philippine tourist attractions as well as the high-level meeting, which proclaimed as its theme "inclusive" growth for Asia, home to some 902 million of the world's poor according to the bank.

The government said it was merely trying to put its "best foot forward" but New York-based Human Rights Watch criticized the boards, saying it sent the message that dire poverty can just be ignored.

"Instead of trying to hide the poor, the Philippine government should be pressing the bank to tackle poverty head on," said Jessica Evans, the group's senior international financial institution advocate.

Union leader Josua Mata, of the Alliance of Progressive Labour-Centro, told AFP the attempt to wall off the poverty was "embarrassing" and the government should turn its focus to creating jobs and building resettlement sites.

President Benigno Aquino's office insisted the effort was not an attempt to hide poverty, which the government says affects a fourth of the population of 95 million.

"It's but natural to fix it (the city) up a bit and I don't think we're violating any human right by trying to put our best foot forward," presidential spokesman Ricky Carandang told reporters.

"We're not trying to whitewash poverty, it's very real," another spokesman, Abigail Valte, said.

Carandang said the government was spending 39 billion pesos ($907 million) this year in cash handouts to help three million poor families to escape poverty. The ADB lent the government $400 million in 2010 for the program.

ADB external relations director Ann Quon defended the hosts.

"We do not think it is the host country's intention to paper over poverty in the Philippines," Quon said.

"In fact, the government has placed poverty reduction at the center of its development agenda." - Agence France-Presse

Philippines erects wall to obscure view of slums

MANILA, Philippines

‘FENCING POVERTY’. A resident pedals his tricycle, locally known as "pedicab", past a wall covered with a tarpaulin poster of the ongoing 45th Annual Board of Governors meeting of the Asian Development Bank at suburban Pasay city south of Manila, Philippines, Thursday May 3, 2012. Behind the wall is the slum along a garbage-strewn creek. (AP and RUEL PEREZ/Radyo Inquirer 990AM)

Delegates attending an international conference in the Philippines capital may not see what they came to discuss: abject poverty.

A makeshift, temporary wall has been erected across a bridge on a road from the airport to downtown Manila that hides a sprawling slum along a garbage-strewn creek.

Presidential spokesman Ricky Carandang defended the wall's installation, saying Thursday "any country will do a little fixing up before a guest comes."

He expressed hope that this week's annual meeting of Asian Development Bank Board of Governors, which includes finance ministers and senior officials from 67 member states, will show the Philippines is open for business.

The lending institition, which is headquartered in its own walled compound in Manila, aims to cut poverty in the Asia-Pacific region.

"We need to show our visitors that Metro Manila is orderly. We owe it to ourselves," said metropolital Manila chief Francis Tolentino.

"I see nothing wrong with beautifying our surroundings. We are not trying to keep the poor out of the picture," he said.

There was no immediate comment from ADB.

The Philippine Communist Party recalled that former first lady Imelda Marcos -- notorious for her ostentatious lifestyle -- was ridiculed for trying to hide squatter colonies. She erected similar whitewashed walls along the route of foreign visitors to the Miss Universe pageant held in Manila in 1974, and other international events.

"The government should face reality. If they don't, how will they know the problem, how will they solve the problem," said Renato Reyes, secretary general of the largest left-wing group Bayan. "By covering the truth, they lose the energy or intention to resolve the problem."

About a third of Manila's 12 million residents live in slums, and a third of 94 million Filipinos live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day. Overall, more than half the population in Asia remains poor.

- The Associated Press 

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Bersih 3: 'Hand Gesture Politics' to 'Occupy Dataran' ?

Anwar has some explaining to do, says The Economist

KUALA LUMPUR: Video footage of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim during Bersih 3.0 posted on YouTube shows him making a curious rolling gesture with his hands to PKR deputy president Azmin Ali.

Within seconds, PKR supporters breached the police barricades and charged into Dataran Merdeka, prompting the police to respond with tear gas and water cannons to prevent a stampede.

In an interview with Radio Australia on Tuesday, Anwar denied that his hand gesture was a signal to protestors to breach the barricades, instead claiming that it meant “negotiate with the police”.

While the hand gesture is open to interpretation, a few outside observers had their own take on it.

“Mr Anwar has some explaining to do”, was The Economist's verdict and, here in Malaysia, Anwar's role in Bersih 3.0 has been criticised by people from both ends of the political spectrum.

At a PKR press conference on Monday, independent filmmaker Benji Lim accused Anwar of endangering the lives of protesters, as well as jeopardising Bersih's cause.

“The protest was completely hijacked by the opposition,” he claimed, before being bundled unceremoniously out of the room.

Even Bersih 3.0 chief organiser Datuk S. Ambiga noted Bersih's politicisation by opposition leaders, telling journalists that she “cannot control what they say”.

Anwar has dismissed any criticism of his conduct. Instead, at the press conference, he launched an attack on the government, accusing the Barisan Nasional leadership of behaving like Stalin and Hitler.

He went on to suggest his fate was comparable to a Nazi concentration camp victim a claim made on the exact anniversary of Hitler's death.

Political observers say that Anwar has often been seen indulging in “hand gesture politics”, revelling in grand spectacles but offering voters little in terms of a detailed blueprint for transformation.

Some say Anwar's “hand gesture politics” appears to have backfired.

Don't be surprised to see him spend much of the coming weeks and months explaining what his Bersih hand gesture really meant. -Bernama

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Bersih 3.0: More tests for Malaysian democracy

Bersih 3.0 and its aftermath show deep divisions in our society but many participants deemed it a good day for Malaysian democracy, despite the ugly end.

FEW events have generated so much commentary in so short a time as Bersih 3.0. By now gigabytes of photographs and video material must have been uploaded and shared, despite the recorded cases of seizure and smashing of equipment that occurred on the day.

One might have thought that this sheer amount of data might be able to provide a comprehensive picture of what really happened.

On the contrary, amid accusations of photo manipulation and devious cut-and-paste there seems to be enough material for those who have already taken sides to harden their stances, with no quantity of counter-evidence being sufficient to sway their positions.

As Deputy Higher Education Minister Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah — possibly the most erudite member of the Government — has said, Bersih 3.0 (and its aftermath) show deep divisions in our society.

Big turnout: Thousands of protesters outside Dataran Merdeka last Saturday.

I was not a frontline witness on Saturday. In the morning I attended the Global Donors Forum organised by the World Congress of Muslim Philanthropists outside the Middle East for the first time.

The event brought together civil society organisations from across the Muslim world to discuss how to improve and target charitable giving to strengthen the ummah.

I argued that philanthropy thrives when wealth thrives, and that Muslim societies should pursue open economies and democratic government so that they can compete intellectually, culturally and economically.

En route to the event, I had to negotiate through a police roadblock at Jalan Parlimen, and immediately saw columns of people percolating through the Bank Negara roundabout towards Dataran Merdeka.

Later in the afternoon, I was on Jalan Ampang and witnessed an orderly line of policemen guiding a horde of protesters outside KLCC in a scene reminiscent of the many marches I saw in London.

I was very impressed and excited by this, and thought of having a closer look after my previously set appointments at the former Istana Negara and lunch in town, as I was due at the nearby Royal Lake Club at 3.30pm (which had earlier been a starting point for many marchers).

Alas, it was around that time that chemical compounds were fired and sprayed into the crowd at Dataran Merdeka — whether due to a breach by agent provocateurs or genuine protesters who were goaded, encouraged or given false pretences — and the whole thing deteriorated.

This is where accounts diverge. It’s worth pointing out, however, that across the country and globe where simultaneous protests were held in dozens of cities (easily the biggest international Malaysian rally in history), there were no reports of violence at all.

As I have written before, I agree with many of Bersih’s demands. But I fully support the right of peaceful protest and have the utmost respect for my relatives, friends and colleagues (and many of their elderly parents) who took part that day, fully in the knowledge that they might be confronted.

They included people who might have little in common with each other, but were generally united in pursuing cleaner elections in our country.

Some friends did complain that the politicians took too visible a role, and it should have been more solidly a civil society effort, but this seems to be true peculiarly at Dataran Merdeka itself.

Certainly, many participants deemed it a good day for Malaysian democracy, despite the ugly end.

Most ugly of all — and indeed, heartbreaking — were the instances of alleged police aggression that day.

Though the aggression was later attributed to rumours of a policeman being killed by protesters, that these violent instances occurred have now been recognised either tacitly (by way of apology to victims) or explicitly by the Prime Minister, Home Minister and Inspector-General of Police.

Now that they have been admitted, every Malaysian should hope that investigations are conducted properly.

If, as some photographs suggest, some of these thugs are not policemen at all, they and whoever issued them with uniforms must be punished. Of course, any thugs among the protesters should also face justice.

> Tunku ’Abidin Muhriz is the president of IDEAS.

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Malaysia's Minimum wage’s benefits and effects

Minimum wage’s benefits are plenty

I HAVE been waiting for a reason to talk about a pizza delivery man I met in a lobby of an condominium while waiting for a lift to arrive. It was in the evening and he was delivering pizza to one of the residents. I struck a conversation about his job, his salary and his aspirations, and got enough from the chat to get his views that the decent salary he was making was insufficient.

The young man claimed he was making RM2,200 a month whizzing through traffic, despite the weather, to send piping-hot pizzas to customers from between 10am and midnight.

He said that after sending back money to his parents in Pahang and paying for his lodging and expenses to live in Kuala Lumpur, the salary was just not enough. Furthermore, the job was wearing him down and he wants to do something else, but is finding it hard to get a new skill with the demands of his current job and the obligations he has.

His story will resonate with many others who are struggling to make ends meet, and whatever little assistance they get will surely be welcome. That small bit of help though came for millions of Malaysians by way of a new minimum wage the Government announced on April 30.

Workers in Peninsular Malaysia were promised a floor wage of RM900 a month and those in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan RM800 a month. The minimum wage will take effect six months from the time the law is gazetted to allow industries to make adjustments to comply with the new law. Non-professional services companies with fewer than five employees will be given a further six months to make their adjustments.

The higher minimum wage will benefit a reported over three million private-sector employees and the net effect economists have calculated is a negligible increase in unemployment and a small drop in investments.

Economic growth and the investments that will take place and the promise of new jobs will be more than enough to offset those small impediments.

One drawback many can expect is higher prices. You can bet employers will pass on the higher staff costs to customers, but the quantum should be kept in check given the competition that exists in business.

The benefits, though are plenty.

The higher wage that almost a third of the workforce will benefit from will be a boost to the economy, which in recent years has been driven by consumption.

The higher wages will also manifest in other benefits for workers. A higher base salary will mean higher contributions to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and the extra will go some way to shore up the retirement savings of many Malaysians.

Companies will see an increase in their payments to the EPF, but with productivity having risen 6.7% per year over the past 10 years and companies making a lot more money than before judging by profits announced by listed companies and tax collection by the Government, they can afford to pay a little more for their workers without diving into bankruptcy.

With a third of the workforce soon enjoying a higher base salary, the increased income will go some way to satisfy the requirement of banks under the new responsible lending guidelines.

Under the new loan criteria, banks will look at the basic salary and decide whether a person can afford a loan. With higher salaries, maybe that will be enough for low salaried people to qualify for a loan to get the small car or home they need.

The minimum wage will help those in need. It might help those like the pizza delivery man if the minimum salary together with allowances are fixed. It is a start that many Malaysians will be thankful.

● Deputy news editor Jagdev Singh Sidhu needs to get a lucky charm ahead of this weekend's FA Cup final.

Minimum wage effects manageable

Effects of the minimum wage policy are expected to be manageable and unlikely to have a significant impact on companies, with rubber glove manufacturers seen to be the hardest hit, analysts said.

UOB KayHian Research head Vincent Khoo said there will be no significant wage rise for most listed companies, especially given the flexibility for the floor wage to include allowances and benefits, hence no wage restructuring is required.

"However, small and medium enterprises in particular, may still be impacted by higher overtime and there may be an upward cascade effect for some listed companies."

In terms of sector, he said glove manufacturing remains the most impacted but the effect should be significantly softened with the incorporation of some allowances into wage calculations.

"Minimum wages would lower industry profits by as much as over 10% as a significant portion of the industry's staff force earn only RM600 to RM700 a month before allowances and benefits."

Consumer companies emerge as the winner as overall demand for fast-moving consumer goods should improve with higher disposable income among low-wage earners.

"We expect manufacturers to raise product prices during the implementation grace period to maintain profitability," Khoo said.

Affin Investment Bank economist Alan Tan said: "The direct effect of a minimum wage increase will result in increases in the relative prices of goods produced. However, even if minimum wages were to lift prices (especially in low-wage industries), we expect the inflationary impact to be manageable, as the minimum wage is set at a relatively low level, which will not raise production costs and overall price level significantly.

"Overall, we expect the broader economic effects of minimum wage in the country on company profits, prices, and inflation, to be manageable and unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy."

However, CIMB Research said higher wages will release pent-up consumption, albeit with some inflationary impact.

"Our view is that an appropriate minimum wage could over time achieve a big push, which is moving the low-wage, low-consumption and informal labour market to a high-wage, high-consumption and formal labour market."

For rubber glove makers, HwangDBS Vickers Research said staff costs would increase by 17-22% while earnings could fall by 5-19% .

"We expect the additional staff costs to be passed to customers over time, but in the immediate term, we expect earnings and margins to be dampened."

It said Hartalega Holdings Bhd is the least affected while Top Glove Corp Bhd would be most affected.

"Based on our estimates, Hartalega's salary costs could rise by RM10 million a year, an increase of 17% and this would lower the 2013 estimated net profit by 5%. For Top Glove, staff costs could rise as much as RM39 million (an increase of 22%), denting 2013 earnings by 19%. Meanwhile, we estimate Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd's annual salary costs to increase by RM18 million (a rise of 17%) and net profit to fall by 13%."

However, it said that if fixed allowances or cash payments are allowed in the calculation for minimum wages, the impact will be softened.

It maintained a hold on Top Glove at a target price of RM4.80 and Hartalega (RM7.70) and Kossan (RM3.30).

Affin Investment Bank said rubber glove makers have indicated that they will most likely reduce or re-categorise certain allowances to help offset the increase in their workers' basic salary.

Ee Ann Nee
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

Glove makers to gain from wage rule in long run

PETALING JAYA: While the new minimum wage will dent glove makers’ earnings in the near term, it is expected to be beneficial for the industry in the long run, CIMB Research said.

“It will encourage glove makers to reduce their use of low-skilled labour and improve their manufacturing processes by using more advanced technology and methods.

“Also, we believe that wage inflation will make the smaller glovemakers less competitive and catalyse consolidation in the sector. This will strengthen the positions of the large glove makers, favouring those with more efficient processes such as Hartalega (Holdings Bhd),” the brokerage said in a note to clients.

On Monday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced the details of the country’s wage floor for the private sector, with the monthly benchmark set at RM900 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 for Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan.

This translates to an hourly rate of RM4.33 and RM3.85 respectively.

Some analysts say the new minimum wage rule may encourage glove makers to reduce their use of low-skilled labour and improve their manufacturing processes by using more advanced technology and methods.

The policy applies to all workers in the private sector, save for those in domestic services, but it will only take effect six months after the Minimum Wages Order is gazetted.

The law, which will be reviewed every two years, affords some flexibility to employers as they can absorb a certain amount of allowances and fixed cash payments in calculating the new wages.

According to CIMB Research’s forecasts, the minimum wage could shave some 1% to 7% off glove makers’ financial year 2013 core net profit, but the brokerage has kept its “neutral” rating for the sector and estimates for the companies under its coverage as they may yet find ways to mitigate the impact of higher staff costs.

Other research houses have also maintained their ratings pending further clarification from the companies and the actual gazetting of the law.

Among the glove makers, Hartalega is the least affected by the setting of a wage floor due to its highly automated production facilities and high margins relative to its peers.

“We believe Hartalega will emerge the strongest from the higher wages as its operations are already lean and management is working hard to further automate its manufacturing process.

“With the highest margins (lowest post-tax cost base), technologically advanced manufacturing process and an aggressive eight-year expansion plan, Hartalega has the most wiggle room in the sector to price gloves competitively and gain market share,” CIMB Research said.

Management was aggressively working on further automating the stripping and packaging portions of its manufacturing process to reduce the use of low-skilled labour and optimise operating expenditure, it added.

CIMB Research said Top Glove Corp Bhd would be the hardest hit as a result of low margins and an oversupply for its gloves that could take two to three years to work off.

“We believe it would be challenging for management to pass on the cost of the minimum wage to customers. This would put further pressure on margins and Top Glove’s high-volume low-price model.”

Top Glove shares have reflected this, with the counter losing 13 sen, or 2.72%, to RM4.65, making it one of the day’s top losers.

In contrast, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and Supermax Corp Bhd dipped one and two sen respectively to RM3.24 and RM1.87 yesterday, while Hartalega was unchanged at RM7.80.

For Supermax, CIMB Research said the manufacturer was ramping up nitrile production to 53% of capacity by financial year 2013. This could help curb rising staff costs, the brokerage added, as the cash cost of producing nitrile gloves was 20% lower than natural rubber.

Kossan, meanwhile, is poised to tap on the growth in China, where glove usage is a mere two gloves per person per annum versus 50 in Europe and 96 in the United States. Kossan entered the market in financial year 2012 via its 53%-owned Cleanera HK Ltd.

Moving forward, HwangDBS Vickers Research expects the additional staff costs to be passed on to customers over time.

Affin Investment Bank, in a report, also noted that Top Glove had previously said it would likely pass on 80% to 90% of the higher costs by increasing prices, which could prompt other glove makers to do the same. - The Star Business

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