Whenever people face a huge loss in life — like a sudden divorce or death of a family member — they go through five stages of grief. These stages are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance. The U.S. is about to lose its top spot as the biggest economy and is, in a textbook manner, going through the same stages.
Denial: Some people like Kishore Mahbubani predicted twenty years ago that China will eventually be the leading economic powerhouse. But Americans chose denial and laughed at the concept. The popular beliefs behind the denials were:
China’s economy will collapse any moment now!
China will eventually become just like the West and then we will have nothing to worry about.
China is a totalitarian, communist country. They don’t understand capitalism or free market, and thus will never be rich.
China can never innovate. The workers are just slaves and bots.
China makes only crappy products and thus can never compete with western brands.
As soon as Chinese people travel to the West and see how glorious the West is, they will go back to China and overthrow the tyrannical and corrupt communist government.
China’s GDP numbers and other stats are fake!
China’s patents and scientific publications are of low quality.
Chinese products will never succeed outside China.
We can always nuke China and maintain our hegemony.
COVID19 will surely bring China down. And all the countries will start decoupling from China.
Alas, none of those happened. China miraculously kept advancing. Without a single recession in forty years, the engine of China kept roaring. China’s communist party grew the GDP 50x in forty years, lifted 800 million people out of poverty, created the world’s largest middle class, fostered innovative companies, and built a vibrant and all-around successful society. (See my blog on China’s global leadership)..
Anger: After denying reality for a while, people become angry. They feel like victims and start blaming others. That’s exactly what’s been happening, especially since Trump came to office. The anger is reflected in following ways:
China stole America’s jobs.
China stole intellectual property from the U.S. (after all, Chinese can’t innovate, remember?)
Chinese are spies and hackers.
China doesn’t buy anything from us.
China doesn’t treat U.S. corporations fairly. China is too protectionist.
China subsidizes its corporations. Not fair!
China made the coronavirus in the Wuhan lab. China tricked us into a lock down.
China bad, China bad, China bad!
Bargaining: This is the hopeful phase. It’s like saying after the divorce, “Maybe I can get my wife back.” This phase is not always benign; it can involve a lot of ruthless scheming as seen in the last four years:
If we can just force China to buy more from us, we can eliminate trade deficit and make America great again.
Tariffs will cripple China and also force American companies to bring manufacturing jobs back.
If we just arrest Huawei’s CFO and kill the company with sanctions, China will bend its knee.
Let’s go on an all-out attack on every successful Chinese company. That should do the trick!
Let’s use Hong Kong and Uyghur separatists to disrupt China. How about using India and Taiwan to start a war?
None of these seem to be working, although military conflicts are possible (with devastating impact on global economy). America’s tech war will only spur more Chinese innovation and self-reliance.
Depression and Acceptance: We are not here yet. The U.S. is still trying hard to stop China, rather than planning for an inevitable post-American era, which will start within five years. The geopolitically smart strategy will be to skip the stage of depression and go to acceptance. That will translate to embracing multilateralism and partnering with China, EU and Russia to forge a multi-polar world order for the 21st century. However, with so much Sinophoba and hubris in the U.S., no politician or think tank will dare propose such a solution. So … get ready for American depression.
The most pressing challenge the world is facing now is to
prevent the numbers from further rising. What lessons have been learned
after we have paid such a high price? What kind of adjustments will the
world make? These are the key to avoiding the reemergence of a global
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Pingshuai Gong is entry level Qi-Gong that founded by Taiwan Meimen master Lee Feng-San Shifu.
Ping Shuai Gong is claimed to cure many ailments including cancer, with anecdotal cases reported in Taiwan.
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Strong words are being hurled at each other but there is calibration in the cursing.
THERE’S this memorable anecdote in Mario Puzo’s crime classic, The Godfather, where the mafia don from New York sends his henchman to reason with a Hollywood mogul who is standing in the way of his godson getting a film role perfect for him in every way, except that he has alienated the studio big shot who now hates his guts.
Where words fail, more potent nudges are sometimes needed – in this case, a horse’s head placed in the studio chief’s bedroom while he is asleep, blood and reedy tendons included, did the trick. It persuaded the man that the favour requested, and declined, is serious business. And thus he yields, shouting invectives and threats at the actor and his Italian origins, the consigliere who had reached out to him with the initial contact on behalf of his boss, and the mafia.
But not a word against the Godfather, himself. Genius, writes Puzo, has its rewards.
There’s no special genius, and even less reward, in the acrimonious exchanges that are causing a tailspin in ties between the world’s two biggest military powers and economies.
If anything, it bespeaks dangerous brinkmanship as a once-overwhelmingly dominant hegemon confronts a resolute challenger now picking a cue or two from its own playbook on how to throw weight around.
Nevertheless, the curses the movie mogul held back from uttering came to mind as I checked around the region about the goings-on at the Asean Ministerial Meeting and related meetings with dialogue partners hosted earlier this month by Vietnam.
Perhaps the two warring sides were mildly cramped by the fact that the conference did not take place in a single hall but over video link. Even so, while both the United States and China did robustly put forth their positions, each seemed to be taking care to keep the attacks from getting too immoderate.
Indeed, the rare frisson, according to Asian diplomats privy to the talks, came when China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Luo Zhaohui, standing in for Foreign Minister Wang Yi, dropped an acid comment about “drunken elephants in the room”.
Faint light at the end of the dark tunnel of US-China ties? Maybe not. But then again, maybe.
Some cultures, particularly in Asia, teach their young that even insults have to be measured; if you spit up at a person high above you, the mucus falls back on yourself. If you do that to someone far below you, it is a waste of time to descend so low. Insults have to be exchanged between equals. But most important of all, never insult so completely that the door to a reconciliation is closed forever. Perhaps that’s what we are witnessing.
A real estate and casino mogul before he ran for his first elected office, which happened to be the US presidency, the New York-born and raised Donald Trump, whose most trusted counsel is close family, has ordered his administration to pile on his strategic adversary the most intense pressure seen in a halfcentury. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has enthusiastically fallen in line, as have his key deputies, including Max Pottinger. Other arms of US government such as the Pentagon have fallen in line as well.
In July, two aircraft carrier groups led by the USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan conducted war games in the South China Sea, joined by subsurface vessels and nuclear-armed bombers. Technology links built up over decades are being torn apart like the wanton act of a child and within the US, the Federal Bureau of Investigation is putting Chinese nationals and Americans of Chinese ethnicity under unprecedented scrutiny.
Trump’s long arm has even snatched Meng Wanzhou, the powerful daughter of the Huawei founder, one of China’s most respected tech tycoons.
Chinese diplomats and media have pushed back, and unfeelingly for a nation where the virus was first identified, sometimes suggesting that the US could learn a lesson or two from Beijing on how to control a pandemic. Also mocked at have been the racial tensions and the rioting that have scarred the US in the wake of the pandemic and the resultant economic hardship.
Nevertheless, through it all, most of the US vitriol has targeted the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), not the Chinese nation.
In a landmark speech in July at the Nixon Presidential Library, Pompeo declared that the “free world must triumph over this new tyranny”. At the Asean forum earlier this month, he underlined US “commitment to speak out in the face of the Chinese Communist Party’s escalating aggression and threats to sovereign nations”.
This week, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs David Stilwell began his testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by saying he was there to “discuss the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party to the US and the global order” in three geographical regions, before going on to say that “it is now clear to us, and to more and more countries around the world, that the CCP under general secretary Xi Jinping... seeks to disrupt and reshape the international environment around the narrow self-centred interests and authoritarian values of a single beneficiary, the Chinese Communist Party”.
Just as the US has tried to separate the CCP from the Chinese people, Trump and Xi have been careful to not throw barbs directly at each other.
Indeed, Trump has claimed to have a “tremendous relationship” with Xi and he has described Xi as a “man who truly loves his country” and is “extremely capable”. He has also stressed that the two will be friends “no matter what happens with our dispute on trade”, and he also has spoken of his liking and “great respect” for China. On the other side, Chinese anger seems to be largely directed at Pompeo, rather than his boss.
At a recent panel discussion I moderated for the FutureChina Global Forum, I asked Professor Randall Kroszner, former member of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System and who currently serves on the advisory board of the Paulson Institute, which works to promote US-China ties, whether he saw wiggle room for a patch-up after the election.
“Ultimately, there’s an understanding that major economic and military powers need to have connections, need to be able to talk and work with each other,” Prof Kroszner responded.
“There is a lot of manoeuvring and posturing that’s going on right now, but I don’t think anyone wants to burn any bridges. They want to make sure the bridges are still there, even if there are some blockades now.
“(That said) I don’t see those obstacles being removed right now.”
For now, of course, it does look as though things will get worse before they get better.
In July, the US shifted position on the South China Sea, proclaiming that it held as illegal all of China’s claims outside its territorial waters. This has emboldened some, Vietnam and the Philippines particularly, to be more assertive with China over the South China Sea dispute.
Still, some in Asean suspect a certain fakery in all this, a sense that a lot of the noise coming from the US is mere posturing. There are few illusions about China either.
Indeed, the lull in assertive Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea witnessed in the lead-up to the Asean ministerial meet and forums is generally seen as nothing more than temporary easing of pressure to get a “good meeting”.
Malaysian Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein spoke for many when he said the South China Sea issue “must be managed and resolved in a rational manner” and Asean has to “look at all avenues, all approaches, to ensure our region is not complicated further by other powers”.
Indeed, some even think Trump is capable of doing a deal with Beijing the week after election day, should he win.
Already, the latest iteration of the TikTok deal is being called by some analysts as a watered-down version of what Trump originally sought to demand, something that had been on the table months ago, although it is not quite clear if China could live with it.
Likewise, it is not lost that China has held back on announcing its own blacklist of US firms – “unreliable entity list” as it is called, although its intentions were announced more than a year ago.
Beijing is said to be staying its hand to both not exacerbate tensions, as well as to wait for the US election results. While the document explaining the unreliable entity list is 1,500 characters long, the attached clarifications are double in length – suggesting much of this is shadow play.
If a deal needs to be made, the Pompeos and Pottingers can always be switched out and more moderate voices brought in; Trump does not shrink from letting people go. Indeed, given that he is said to harbour ambitions about a 2024 presidential run, it might even help Pompeo’s political career to be made a casualty of a rapprochement with China, so he can distance himself from the deal.
Still, it hardly needs to be said that Trump is capable of busting every code in the book, spoken or unspoken. With the election looming and his own standing in pre-election surveys not looking too promising, he let fly this week at the United Nations, returning to his “China virus” theme, boasting about three US-developed vaccines in Phase III trials, and the unprecedented rearmament of America under his watch. America’s weapons, he declared, “are at an advanced level, like we’ve never had before, like, frankly, we’ve never even thought of having before”.
Judging from Chinese media, Beijing read it for what it was; while made to a global audience, the speech was targeted at the domestic voting public. Nevertheless, it did not go without a response.
An editorial comment in the Global Times on Wednesday reminded Trump that the “hysterical attack on China violated the diplomatic etiquette a top leader is supposed to have”.
In short, never omit to leave that bit of margin for a future reconciliation.
by Ravi Velloor, is an associate editor at The Straits Times, a member of the Asia News Network (ANN) which is an alliance of 24 news media entities. The Asian Editors Circle is a series of commentaries by editors and contributors of ANN.
Trump's speech jeopardized the atmosphere of this UN
General Assembly, and threw the assembly's theme astray. His hysterical
attack on China violated the diplomatic etiquette a top leader is
supposed to have. This means Washington elites do not take the UN into
consideration and pay no heed to diplomacy.
Both Xi and Trump addressed the General Debate on Tuesday
with pre-recorded videos. Xi emphasized unity and cooperation, while
Trump mentioned China 12 times, making the country his most outstanding
stunt. Judging from such different performances, it is easy to tell
which side was more reliable. If the 21st century would finally become a
century of divisions, the US ruling elites shall be regarded as the
sinners of history.
As strong as the US is, it's not a country that serves
its people heart and soul. That's why the coronavirus is so ravaging in
the world's most developed country.
Foreign Minister Wang was furious and seriously warned the United States that 2 million troops are ready at any time?
1. At the press conference, a reporter asked Wang Yi, a spokesperson for the outreach ministry: US President Trump wanted to send his own investigator to China to investigate the epidemic-related situation. If China has deliberate responsibility for the spread of the virus, Need to bear the consequences, do you have any comments?
2. Wang Yi’s answer: The virus is the common enemy of all mankind and may appear at any time and anywhere. Like other countries, China has been attacked by the new coronavirus and is the victim, not the perpetrator, nor the virus. "accomplice".
At that time, H1N1 flu was first diagnosed in the United States and broke out in a large area, spreading to 214 countries and regions, resulting in the death of nearly 200,000 people. Has anyone asked the United States to compensate?
In the 1980s, AIDS was first discovered in the United States and quickly spread to the world, causing pain to many people and many families. Has anyone sought compensation from the United States?
The financial turmoil that occurred in the United States in 2008, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and eventually evolved into a global financial crisis. Does anyone demand compensation from the United States?
The United States must be clear that their enemy is a virus, not China.
3. Wang Yi went on to say: If Trump and Pompeo were not guilty of geriatric madness, then they should be clear that China is not the one that was allowed to be trampled on by the "eight-nation coalition", nor is China even Iraq. Venezuela, not Syria, is not where you want to come, what you want to check.
China is not guilty, but you are not qualified, nor are you qualified! In the early stage of the epidemic, we took the initiative to invite WHO and Chinese experts to conduct a joint inspection in the epidemic area, and put forward preliminary inspection results on the outbreak and spread of new coronavirus.
The investigation request made by Trump is purely unreasonable and is a manifestation of hegemony. They override the United States above international organizations and all humankind, and it seems that only they can be trusted. But is the United States really credible? Iraq and Venezuela are a lesson.
4. We have to warn Trump that if we want to calculate China's abacus, it is better to think about it. Because 1.4 billion people will not agree, China's 2 million army is not a decoration, but China's steel Great Wall. China's Dongfeng missiles are not used to rake, but to fight dog jackals.
China's nuclear submarines are not used to travel on the seabed, but to combat uninvited guests. Chinese nuclear weapons are not used to frighten anyone, but from self-defense. Anyone who wants to taste something, think about it, you tell me.
5. We want to warn Trump that if China wants compensation, it will count from the time when the Eight-Power Allied Forces invaded China, until the cases that Wang Yi has just proposed are counted together. You have to compensate the old historical accounts of China and the world.
6. Now China is in a very good position in the world, the first to control the new coronary pneumonia, the first to enter the stage of economic recovery, and now it is to increase horsepower to export anti-epidemic materials to the world, China is catching up with the total economy The time to go beyond the United States is also greatly advanced. This is unacceptable to Trump. The United States has been dragged into the quagmire by Trump. At this time, Trump wants to make China and the world feel better. Harmfulness is indispensable, anti-Trumping indispensability is absolutely indispensable, and wicked people have their own harvest!
I hope that every Chinese can turn this article out so that our China becomes stronger and stronger and support all patriotic groups.
Govt introduces special assistance 'Kita Prihatin' package
The Perikatan Nasional government has introduced a special assistance initiative package known as 'Kita Prihatin'.
In
a special address on national television on Wednesday, Prime Minister
Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the Prihatin economic stimulus package
involves RM295bil or 20% of the GDP.
ETALING JAYA: The government has introduced several new initiatives worth RM10bil to help people weather the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Kita Prihatin package is an additional stimulus to previous government initiatives such as the RM35bil Pelan Jana Semula Ekonomi Negara (Penjana) announced in June and the RM260bil Prihatin package in March.
Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said while the figures showed that there was economic recovery, new initiatives were needed as many were still facing difficulties.
He said the Wage Subsidy Programme 2.0 was targeted at firms seeing a drop in revenue of up to 30% compared to last year since the recovery movement control order (MCO).
A wage subsidy of RM600 monthly will be given to a maximum of 200 employees each for three months, with applications to be open from Oct 1 until Dec 31 this year.
The Prime Minister said he received feedback that many companies were not eligible for the scheme because they had not registered with the Social Security Organisation (Socso) before April 1.
He said to ensure they were not left behind, the second scheme would be open to companies that registered with Socso before Aug 31.
“For new applications that did not receive assistance under the Wage Subsidy Scheme programme, they will be eligible for subsidies for up to six months, ” he said yesterday in a special address to announce the initiatives.
He said the implementation of the programme was expected to benefit 1.3 million workers with an allocation of RM2.4bil.
Muhyiddin also announced a Special Prihatin Grant (GKP) to help micro businesses that were facing financial difficulties because of the pandemic.
He said it would be open to business owners registered with the Companies Commission of Malaysia or with local authorities before Aug 31, with payments to be made from Nov 25.
“The reopening of this initiative is expected to benefit over 200,000 micro businesses, with an allocation of almost RM600mil, ” he said.
Another RM7bil in cash aid under Bantuan Prihatin Nasional (BPN) 2.0 would be channelled to 10.6 million recipients, said Muhyiddin.
He said RM1,000 would be given to 3.7 million families in the B40 category, RM500 to 3.8 million single folk in the B40 group, RM600 to 1.4 million M40 families, and RM300 to 1.7 million singles in the M40 group.
The payments will be made in two batches – at the end of October this year and in January next year.
“There will be no need to apply for BPN 2.0. The government will channel aid directly
to the 10.6 million recipients who were approved previously.
“To those who are eligible but never received BPN, the government will give them a chance to appeal and submit new applications.
“I hope that with this additional assistance, you can breathe a sigh of relief in covering the daily expenses for you and your family, ” he said.
Muhyiddin also appealed to the public to reject the actions of several politicians whom he claimed wanted to undermine the political stability and the nation’s ongoing economic recovery plan.
He said the country needed a stable and strong government with the support of the public.
“This is important so that more initiatives to restore the economy and help the people can be implemented effectively by the government, ” he said.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) on Bantuan Prihatin Nasional (BPN) 2.0
Q What is BPN 2.0?
A It is an extra aid provided by the Government for the B40 and M40 to reduce their financial burden due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The issuance of BPN 2.0 is based on the BPN 2020 database comprising a list of 10.6 million previously approved recipients.
Q Who is eligible to receive BPN 2.0?
A BPN 2.0 recipients will be those who previously received the last payment of BPN 2020.
Q Do I need to apply for BPN 2.0?
A You do not need to apply for BPN 2.0 if you have previously received the last payment of BPN 2020.
Q Can I submit a new application if I have not been listed as a recipient of BPN 2.0?
A New applications for BPN 2.0 can be made starting Oct 15, 2020.
B. Payment of BPN 2.0
Q How much is the payout that will be given for BPN 2.0?
A The amount of payout will be as follows:
> B40 household earning less than RM4,000:
First phase=RM700; Second phase=RM300; Total=RM1,000 >
M40 household earning between RM4,001 and RM8,000:
First phase=RM400; Second phase=RM200; Total=RM600
> B40 singles earning less than RM2,000:
First phase=RM350; Second phase=RM150; Total=RM500
> M40 singles earning between RM2,001 and RM4,000:
First phase=RM200; Second phase=RM100; Total=RM300
Q When will BPN 2.0 payouts be made?
A First phase will be at the end of October 2020. Second phase will be in January 2021.
Q How will BPN 2.0 payouts be made?
A i. Those with active bank accounts - the payment will be credited into the account number listed in the BPN 2020 database.
ii. Those with inactive or closed bank accounts - claim the cash at a Bank Simpanan Nasional (BSN) branch.
iii. Those with no bank accounts - claim the cash at a BSN branch.
Q How will BSN 2.0 payouts be made for recipients in the interiors of Sabah and Sarawak?
Payments for recipients with no bank accounts living in the interiors of Sabah and Sarawak will start in January 2021.
Q Can I update my personal details such as my bank account that is no longer active?
A Updating bank account information is not allowed because the payment method for BPN 2.0 will be the same as the payment method of the previous BPN 2020 (refer to the answer for question 7).
Q If the payout was made to an inactive or incorrect bank account, what should I do?
A You can claim the cash at a BSN branch after the serial number has appeared. You can check your application status via the official BPN portal at https://bpn.hasil.gov.my
C. Status check
Q When and how can I check my application status for BPN 2.0?
A Recipients who are eligible to receive BPN 2.0 can check their status starting Oct 15 via the official portal at https://bpn. hasil.gov.my
Q What should I do if I forget my password to log into the portal and what if I fail to answer the security question?
A You need to wait for 10 minutes before attempting to answer the security question again. If you still fail to answer, you can contact the Hasil Care Line (HCL) at 03- 89111000 to reset your account and security question or contact the nearest IRB branch.
D. Other matters
Q Based on my status check, I was approved as a recipient in the M40 category for BPN 2020. Can I appeal to be a recipient in the B40 category for BPN 2.0?
A The BPN 2.0 qualification category is based on the final approval for BPN 2020.
Q I was a BPN 2020 recipient under the singles category but I am now married. Am I eligible to receive BPN 2.0 under the household category?
A You can submit a new application or appeal starting Oct 15, 2020 under the household category if you meet all the criteria.
Q I was married to a BPN 2020 recipient under the household category but I am now divorced. Am I eligible to receive BPN 2.0 under the single mother or father category?
A You can submit a new application/appeal starting Oct 15, 2020 under the single mother or father category if you meet all the criteria.
Q I am single and will turn 21 years old in 2021. If I am not yet 21 years old at the time that the application opens up, am I eligible to apply?
A Those born in 1999 or before are eligible to apply.
Q I received BPN 2020 previously and now wish to reject BPN 2.0. How can I return the cash aid?
A You can do the following: i. Submit a letter to the Finance Ministry stating your full name, MyKad number and reason for returning the cash aid.
ii. Come up with a bank draft or cheque addressed to the Accountant General of Malaysia according to the amount being returned.
iii. The letter and bank draft or cheque must then be submitted to the Finance Ministry at the following address:
Pejabat Belanjawan Negara, Kementerian Kewangan Malaysia, Presint 2, 62592 Putrajaya.
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by Ravi Velloor, is an associate editor at The Straits Times, a member of the Asia News Network (ANN) which is an alliance of 24 news media entities. The Asian Editors Circle is a series of commentaries by editors and contributors of ANN.
