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Saturday, May 5, 2018

Impact of manifestos policy lead from Malaysia's General Electioon (GE14)



Market impact: The reaction of investors following the past two GEs is an example of how investors value certainty and how Bursa will be affected in the event of a Pakatan victory this time around.

Policy directions from political pledges have business and economic consequences.



EVER since Parliament was dissolved ahead of polling for the 14th general election (GE14), the combustible campaigning period has been mirrored by the volatile stock market.

The FBM KLCI hit an all-time high of 1,895 points on April 19, just a week after the dissolution of Parliament, but has since tracked lower as election day nears.

With the market edgy prior to polling day, UOB KayHian in a note on the election says that the election factor is a short-term sway phenomenon.

“While unexpected election results can be a significant market sway factor in the near term, such market reactions have been short-lived in the past.

“For example, when the Barisan Nasional’s control of parliamentary seats surprisingly slipped below two-thirds during GE12, the FBM KLCI plunged by as much as 9.5% in a day, triggering a trading circuit breaker at the worst level,” it says.

The research house notes that the FBM KLCI recouped most of the losses within a couple of weeks, once investors were assured of the continuity of political stability and business-friendly policies.

Both Barisan and Pakatan Harapan are mindful of maintaining business-friendly policies, it says. “Pakatan has on various occasions highlighted that it will generally uphold the sanctity of government contracts should it win the election. Eventually, equity markets will be dictated by external and domestic economic fundamentals and liquidity considerations.”

Market volatility and fierce campaigning do go hand-in-hand, given the uncertainties the outcome of the GE will bear on the stock market and businesses. Experts have said that the direction of the ringgit and also the economy will be determined after polling day as the country charts its political, along with economic and business, direction for the next five years.

“If Barisan wins, it will be seen as a vote for continuity. It will be business as usual, given the various plans and policies the Barisan government has laid out in the past and for the future,” says an economist.

“For businessmen, that mindset of what to expect is important for future planning and direction and they will like not to have any anxiety on what to expect in the future.”

The economic and business direction

The Barisan government, which has been in power since independence, has a track record of what it has done and will do for the country when it comes to business and economic planning.

The various Malaysia plans, budgets and policies announced over the decades have plotted the economic direction of the country. But in recent times, some will look at its manifesto as to the future policy direction the country will adopt should it retain power.

Policy promises are something more voters pay attention to these days, and judging by the manifestos of Barisan and even the Opposition, their documents are detailed with measures they will carry out in the impending five years.

For the Barisan government, the launch of its manifesto was done with much pomp, with it even detailing how it has fulfilled 99.4% of its 2013 manifesto pledges. Much of the focus of its latest manifesto is on the people, in order to lift their incomes and well-being.

These promises include raising the minimum wage in phases to at least RM1,500 within five years to setting up a Fair Works Commission to ensure that the salary levels of private-sector workers are more equitable.

BR1M recipients who enrol in higher education institutes will, meanwhile, receive a one-off assistance of RM1,500 plus there are a slew of measures for the country’s Felda settlers and their family members who are spread out over 317 settlements in 54 parliamentary seats nationwide in the manifesto.

Barisan is also promising to create three million jobs, and among the measures promised to help achieve this is by speeding up the development of the Malaysian Vision Valley, a 150,000ha area that is projected to create 1.3 million job opportunities.

On housing, the manifesto pledges a number of measures including setting up a special bank to facilitate loans for affordable and low-cost housing priced RM300,000 and below.

In addition, tax incentives or development funds will be provided to encourage banks and housing developers to offer rent-to-own schemes.

CIMB Research in a note on Barisan manifesto points out the key pledges which include low-income households, Felda settlers, females, the elderly and farmers.

It points out that the key promises include a top-up on the BR1M payments, raising the minimum wage to RM1,500 within five years, potential revisions in personal and corporate income taxes, expansion of affordable housing aid, special incentives and funds for Felda settlers, and subsidised public transport passes, broadband and other consumer goods/services.

It says that the additional BR1M payments will amount to at least RM3.71bil or 0.25% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, which comes on top of the prior week’s civil servant pay hikes of RM1.46bil effective July 1.

“New spending commitments imply that the budget deficit is unlikely to improve significantly from the target of 2.8% of GDP despite windfalls from higher oil prices and GDP growth,” CIMB says.

It believes the market is expecting the ruling coalition, Barisan, to win the majority of the Parliament seats.

“We view Barisan’s widely expected win as neutral to positive for the market. The stock market’s performance post-election will depend on the degree of selling pressure during the campaigning period and the poll results.”

What the additional cash injection to households will mean is a lift in consumer spending. Consumption is a big driver of the economy and the BR1M payments have been one of the reasons for the steady performance of domestic demand.

“Furthermore, the economy will get a lift from the lift-off from projects that have already been identified for construction. The MRT, the high-speed rail between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, and the construction of Bandar Malaysia will be some of the projects that will lift the construction sector and also the economy,” an economist says.

During the years when pledges from the past Barisan manifesto were being carried out, the economy had its ups and downs given the crunch felt by the collapse in crude oil prices.

The GDP, nonetheless, during the past five years has been positive, given the rollout of projects during that period. Growth came in at 5.9% in 2017 and was 4.2% in 2016, 5% in 2015, 6% in 2014 and 4.7% in 2013.

There have been concerns that spending pledges contained in the manifesto would leave a hole in government finances, but indicators so far do not point to that being a problem.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen below the self-prescribed ceiling of 55% to 51% and going by what the data shows in the first quarter, government finances seem to be holding up.

Nomura in a note says that Malaysia’s fiscal deficit was RM11.2bil in the first quarter of 2018, or 3.3% of GDP, which was below its forecast of 6%.

“This is smaller than any of the first-quarter deficits in the previous five years,” it says.

Nomura says revenue collection appears to have exceeded expectations significantly, surging by 16.5% year-on-year in the first quarter and was likely boosted by higher oil prices and possibly some lagged effect from strong GDP growth last year.

“However, more surprisingly, spending appears to have been quite restrained, falling by 2% despite the GE on May 9. Spending details have yet to be released but such restraint may prove temporary with the government likely concentrating the use of its fiscal firepower closer to election day,” it says.

“This likely explains the government’s confidence in maintaining its 2018 deficit target of 2.8% of GDP despite announcements of additional cash handouts around the election.

“While we continue to expect government spending to spike in the second quarter, the surprising outturn in the first quarter suggests that fiscal tightening in the second half may be less severe than we currently forecast,” it says. By Jagdev Singh Sidhu The Star

Election a short-term market sway phenomenon


THE consensus is for the Barisan Nasional to win the upcoming general election (GE) to be held next Wednesday. But what if Pakatan Harapan were to win?

The immediate implications of a Pakatan win will be on the financial markets. The other implication is the impact in the mid to long-term of a Pakatan win on the economy.

The financial markets

There is no precedence for a win by the parliamentary Opposition in Malaysian history, and because investors prefer certainty, the financial markets are sure to be volatile.

The reaction of investors following the past two GEs is example of how investors value certainty and how Bursa Malaysia will be affected in the event of a Pakatan victory this time around.

The local bourse’s benchmark, the FBM KLCI, slipped 9.5% on the first day of trading after the 2008 election, which was held on a Saturday. This was after Barisan lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament for the first time and also lost control of five state legislatures.

In 2013, the stock market fell the week before the election on speculation of an Opposition victory at the federal level. That was the year when many felt sure that Barisan would lose. The Barisan clung on to power but lost the popular vote. The stock market rallied.

While there certainly was a reaction by investors, it must be noted that the Malaysian financial markets, including the stock market, do not act in isolation.

In 2008, fund flows were also influenced by broader movements in the global markets made volatile by the global financial crisis.

“Don’t forget that news flow from the US markets was bad on a daily basis,” a fund manager with an emerging-market portfolio points out.

Shortly after the 2008 election, Bear Stearns Companies Inc, an investment bank, was taken over by another investment bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co, in an operation largely directed by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which was afraid of what the failure of a Wall Street institution would do to market confidence.

The fund manager tells StarBizWeek that investors just took the opportunity to offload riskier emerging-market assets following the outcome of the election.

“It’s normal to point to market swings either way to domestic factors but in reality, for the index to move, institutional shareholders must react and they rarely do so on just domestic factors, especially in that period of time,” he says.

The same reasoning goes for currency movements. The ringgit’s weakness in the past month has been blamed on investor jitters prior to the upcoming election, but pressure on the currency is really coming from rising US bond yields.

Investors are repositioning on market speculation of four instead of three US interest rate hikes and this has had an impact on emerging-market currencies as well as equity markets.

Although the Fed left the benchmark interest rate unchanged in a recent meeting, officials say that inflation is close to the 2% target. The market expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate a second time in June when it next meets.

How this works is that investors are anticipating that new US government bonds will now be issued with a higher coupon rate, which is the interest that is paid out annually on the bonds because of the higher interest rates. Also, because of the anticipation, the earlier issued bonds, with a lower coupon rate, will now be traded at a lower price, and because there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, there is a rise in bond yields.

This is why the benchmark 10-year US Treasuries yield is now higher, because the price has dropped, causing US bond yields to narrow against the yields of similar-tenor bonds of foreign government issuers.

For example, the yields between the 10-year Malaysian Government Securities and the 10-year Treasuries have narrowed, making Treasuries – because of its safe-haven status and underlying currency strength – a more attractive asset.

An interest rate hike also means that inflationary pressure is picking up because of economic growth and that will attract investors too.

The steady US economic outlook, US dollar strength and safe-haven status at a time of much geopolitical uncertainty are also attractive factors. Currency strategists point to US dollar movements as more important when taking into account the US dollar/ringgit pairing. The decisions of US policymakers as well as other external factors such as trade will have more weight on the ringgit’s direction rather than purely domestic factors.

Even the rising oil price has not been able to stem the weakness in the ringgit, and that is because of the investors repositioning rather than any inherent political risks.

However, a political analyst did say that without the higher oil price, the ringgit could have seen a steeper fall. “It could be that rising US bond yields is the reason for the ringgit’s weakness but I believe that political factors are at play too and that without the higher oil price, the ringgit would have fallen even more,” he says.

The economy

A Pakatan government will have to find a middle path in unravelling some of the more unpopular policies, while ensuring policy continuity and assuaging the concerns of investors.

Both Barisan and Pakatan claim to have the people’s welfare at heart, and both claim they want to alleviate the cost-of-living issue that Malaysians have been grappling with in recent years. The Pakatan coalition is also calling for the shaping of the nation’s economy in a fair and just manner.

The Pakatan promises must take into account the urgent need for the economy to move up the value chain. In one respect, a focus on high-end manufacturing will have a positive spillover effect, as such initiatives will attract high-end service jobs including banking and financial services as well as research and development opportunities.

The Pakatan manifesto launched in early March includes 10 promises to be implemented within 100 days of winning the election. Among the promises are the abolishment of the goods and services tax, reintroducing the petrol subsidy and increasing the minimum wage to RM1,500 by their first term in office.

Moody’s Investor Service analysts say in a report released yesterday that the implications on the country’s credit standing will be determined by the impact of the election results on existing government policies, with particular regard to fiscal consolidation and debt trend.

“Ahead of the election, Barisan and the key opposition, Pakatan, have both unveiled their manifestos and specific spending programmes targeted at key voter bases. These measures include raising the minimum wage, greater cash handouts and relief for Federal Land Development Authority settlers, among others,” they say.

The rating agency, which has maintained the country’s A3 credit profile with a “stable” outlook, says the impact of these programmes on the sovereign credit will depend on how they are funded and whether they have a negative effect by delaying the government’s ongoing efforts at fiscal consolidation.

“Economically, these programmes are likely to boost consumption over the near term but against the backdrop of Malaysia’s export-driven growth, the impact is not likely to be material and could be offset by inflation,” they note.

Another crucial promise is to launch detailed studies of multi-billion-ringgit projects awarded to foreign countries. This particular promise is likely aimed at China, which has become a major investor, if not the largest in recent years, with not only infrastructure projects but also property development.

Pakatan will have to tread carefully where reviewing contracts is concerned, as the sanctity of contracts is crucial to investor confidence.

“Any review of the mega-projects will have to be done in a tactful manner. Malaysia is not the United States, we don’t have the heft, so we need to be careful,” an analyst says.- by Fintan Ng The Star

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Wednesday, May 2, 2018

BN loss will see bad future ?

Towering achievement: The Tun Razak Exchange is one of the projects Ng says will be halted if the Opposition wins the polls. — Bernama


PETALING JAYA: An analyst has warned of a bleak economic future for Malaysia if the Opposition is voted into power in GE14.

About - CREATE – Centre for Research, Advisory & Technology


Ng Yeen Seen | 世界经济论坛

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Centre for Research, Advisory & Technology (fb)

Centre for Research, Advisory and Technology chief executive officer Ng Yeen Seen (pic) said Malaysia will be sidelined by China from the Belt and Road Initiative.

She said the Opposition will cease all China-linked projects such as the East Coast Rail Link, Tun Razak Exchange and the Country Garden Forest City development.

Malaysia’s palm oil industry problems will then be compounded with a boycott by China, she said.

She said many will be expected to lose their jobs if China decides to use another route to bypass Port Klang.

The abolition of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will also result in a huge loss in revenue for the Government, she said.

According to her, government employees will be expected to lose their jobs as Petronas is no longer a formidable force like it was in the 80s, 90s and in the first decade of 2000.

“The Government will have to find alternative sources,” she said in a statement yesterday.

She added that this will result in national debt rising as it did in the 80s and 90s as privatisation will see a significant increase to sell more assets to “friendly parties” via cheap loans guaranteed by the Govern­ment.

Furthermore, as the Opposition has vowed to abolish tolls, Ng said the Government will have to borrow money from the United States, for example, in its plans to buy back these assets.

Ng said this was because the Government no longer had the oil money it once had in the past, coupled with China and the Middle East not being as strong as they were due to falling oil prices.

Although the abolition of BR1M will result in the B40 group being encouraged to work in newly privatised companies, she said this will hamper the nation’s dreams of becoming a high-income nation.

“To be globally competitive, these privatised companies will have to keep costs low and our high-income nation dreams will be destroyed,” she said, adding that foreign workers will return to compete with locals.

She pointed out that this will result in Industry 4.0 modernisation not happening and the country falling behind nations such as Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia by 2023.- The Star

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Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Penang govt rapped over hill slope development

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Engineer: Lives at risk in Penang hill project


GEORGE TOWN: The DAP-led state government has turned a blind eye on the imminent danger of hill slope development, said a Tanjung Bungah resident.

At a forum-cum-press conference yesterday, geotechnical consultant Aziz Noor (pic) said building the proposed multi-storey mixed development behind the Miami Green Resort Condominium would pose a danger to the condo and its residents.

The development which has been approved on the class four hill, comprises five 29-storey building blocks, two 34-storey serviced apartments with 336 units each and one block of affordable apartments with 197 units.

Meanwhile, former Bukit Bendera MP Zairil Khir Johari, who is the Tanjong Bungah candidate for Pakatan Harapan, said the state government would review the guidelines on hill slope development. – Bernama


GEORGE TOWN: An engineer has sounded a warning about “imminent danger” from a new hillside development of eight tower blocks of apartments planned in an environmentally-sensitive area of Tanjung Bungah.

Geotechnical consultant Aziz Noor, speaking at a forum-cum-press conference today, accused the DAP-led state government of turning a blind eye on the imminent danger of hill slope development.

The proposed mixed development behind Miami Green Resort condominium puts the existing residence and its people in danger, he said.

The development has been approved on a 12-acre plot with a 35-degree slope on a Class Four hill, which exceeds 250 feet above sea level.

It comprises five 29-storey tower blocks, two 34-storey blocks of 336 serviced apartments each, and one block of 197 units of affordable apartments.

Aziz said that the project was not only in an environmentally sensitive area, it also contradicts the 2007 Penang Structure Plan that forbid any development above a gradient of 25-degree gradient and 250 feet above sea-level.

The design of one development does not guarantee safety. A Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment must be conducted and reviewed. This development puts the place and people in imminent danger,” he said.

Residents of the area said they had vented their frustration multiple times since November but had not received any response from the state government and Penang Island City Council.

The residents, together with the Tanjung Bunga residents association, had spoken on the matter many times, but no one seemed bothered, said one of the residents, Lim Liew Ming.

“Our lives are at risk. The upcoming development is a ticking time-bomb. Are the authorities waiting for a tragedy to happen, and only then act on it?,” she asked.

State Barisan Nasional chairman Teng Chang Yeow, who is also BN candidate for the Tanjong Bunga state seat in the general election, said the project should have been shelved from the beginning.

“We will put a stop to this. Even if we need to pay compensation,” he said.

The Barisan Nasional has pledged to declare all highland and hill slope areas of 250 feet above sea-level as permanent forest reserve.

Former Bukit Bendera MP Zairil Khir Johari, who is the Pakatan Harapan candidate for Tanjong Bunga, said the state government would review the guidelines on hill slope development.

Source:FMT.Click here to get live updates throughout the GE14 season


GEORGE TOWN: An MCA state leader has criticised Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng over the latter’s statement that more stop-work orders have been issued against hillside development by the current state government.

State MCA Wanita chairman Tan Cheng Liang said Lim, who is also the DAP secretary-general, had “conveniently avoided” revealing the increase in number of protests in the state since 2008.

“He boasts about more stop-work orders being issued now compared to when Barisan Nasional was helming the state government.

“However, he failed to reveal that there have been more protests by Penangites against hillside development since Pakatan Rakyat took over.

“The latest is the chorus of dissatisfaction by residents of Mount Pleasure in Batu Ferringhi, objecting against approval accorded by the Penang Municipal Council (MPPP) for the construction of 21 four-storey villas and 80 two-storey bungalows there,” she said.

She said the 2008 DAP general election manifesto unveiled by Lim promised to “preserve our forest, wetlands and bio-diversity” while Pakatan Rakyat’s common policy framework stressed that the “environment must be preserved for the sustainability of future generations.”

“Just six weeks ago, Lim said in a speech that the Pakatan government was proud of its record of not approving any hillside development.

“However, the voices of disapproval by Penangites are evidence that Lim, the DAP and Pakatan are deceptive,” she claimed.

Citing examples, she said on April 8 this year, Sungai Ara residents protested against approval issued by MPPP Planning Department for two hillside development projects and in February 2009, Tanjung Bungah residents protested and submitted a memorandum calling on the state government to ban all current and future Class III and Class IV hillslope development projects.

“In view of these protests and to deliver the DAP and Pakatan’s pledge to protect the environment, I challenge Lim and the state government to issue a stop-work orders against all hillside development projects approved by MPPP,” she said in a press release yesterday.

Tan also took a swipe at Lim for focusing on luxury residences but allegedly had no regard for the poor.

“Approvals are given for exclusive housing and condominium projects on hills, but scant attention is given to low-cost housing for the poor where no low or medium cost units were constructed between 2008 to 2011,” she claimed.

On Tuesday, Lim said more stop-work orders had been issued by both local councils since 2008 compared to previously.

He said this proved that the state government was “more stringent in upholding the rule of law, demanding strict compliance with technical requirements and more unforgiving than Barisan.” - The Star

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Saturday, April 28, 2018

DAP's 'king vs king' strategy will rob the community of the worthy talents

GE14 will be about race, warn analysts |


'The outcome of such a strategy will deprive the Chinese community of some good politicians' - Tan Sri Pheng Yin Huah


Leaders against rocking the boat


This Saturday’s nomination day, DAP is facing increa­sing pressure from Chinese so­­cie­ty to drop its strategy to jiao mie (wipe out) outstanding Chinese lea­ders within the Barisan Nasional.

In the past two weeks, several Chinese guilds – which claim to be apolitical – have come out openly to oppose this DAP stunt which will see the DAP fielding its strong candidates against leading Chinese po­­liticians from Barisan’s MCA and Gerakan.

Many commentators within the community have also published their views in Chinese media ­ar­­guing against the DAP plan.

Most Chinese newspapers have also voiced their stand against this strategy.

In essence, many see this “king versus king” plan advocated by DAP as wiping out the limited number of outstanding political talents within the community.

Whoever wins or loses in the election, the Chinese community will lose a talent and the ultimate loser is the community, they argue.

The decision by DAP to transfer its political strategist Liew Chin Tong from Kluang to the Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat to collide head-on with MCA deputy president Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Seong has not been well received from the start.

Neither is the move to send Perak DAP chief Nga Kor Ming from Taiping to Teluk Intan to rock the parliamentary seat held by Gerakan president Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong.

Among the Chinese associations that have made their opposing stand known are the Federation of Chinese Guilds in Malaysia (Hua Zong), the normally low-profile Federation of Kwang Xi clans and the Federation of Heng Hua clans.

Hua Zong’s president Tan Sri Pheng Yin Huah tells The Star: “We cannot interfere with DAP politics, but as a community leader I hope DAP can consider our views to change this election strategy.

“The outcome of such a strategy will deprive the Chinese community of some good politicians – ­whe­ther they are from Barisan or Opposition, and this is a loss to the community.”

Last Monday, Pheng issued a media statement to this effect. But in response, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng alleged that Hua Zong was an “external organisation” of MCA.

Lim, in justifying the DAP strategy, said it would help the Opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan to win more parliament seats so as to take over Putrajaya to rule the country.

It appears that DAP is unlikely to change this unpopular strategy.

While Lim can ignore Pheng and the other Chinese community lea­ders who are not voters in Ayer Hitam and Teluk Intan, he should listen to the voices on the ground.

A professional in Ayer Hitam, who was my high school classmate in Batu Pahat, told me in my recent trip down south: “I normally support the Opposition, but this time I am going to vote for Wee Ka Siong.

“He is a good minister and has done so much work for the people. Everybody here can see.”

His feelings are shared by my other former Batu Pahat high school friends.

Prominent commentator Tang Ah Chai, who is normally more pro-Opposition in his analysis, has warned DAP to handle the discontent from Chinese society with caution to avoid backlash in the coming election.

“The Chinese community is worried that if there is little or no re­pre­sentation in government, their aspirations and voice cannot be effectively channelled to the top and their interest will be undermined. They experienced this when MCA did not join the Cabinet,” Tang commented last Friday.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has warned that there will be a cut in the number of Chinese ministers, in the event Barisan wins the election, if Chinese support for MCA and Gerakan dwindles.

While Pheng does not expect Lim to change DAP’s strategy, which has also been employed in Sarawak, other leaders hope Lim can turn a page on DAP history.

“Look at what happened in 1982 when Seremban sent a strong ­message that voters wanted MCA leader to stay on,” said one.

In the 1982 general election, in response to a taunt by DAP to contest in a Chinese-majority area, the then MCA president Tan Sri Lee San Choon contested in Seremban to face DAP chairman Dr Chen Man Hin, who had held that parliamentary seat since 1969.

Not only did Lee win in the battle, MCA scored a landslide victory – winning 24 out of 28 parliamentary seats and 55 out of 62 state seats it contested.

DAP was nearly wiped out in that general election.

One of Lee’s projects that have benefited many Chinese is TAR College to expand tertiary education opportunities for the Chinese at the time.

While the 1982 election has come to pass, the sentiment of Chinese against “king versus king” is still present.

by Ho Wah Foo The Star

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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

American Ban on ZTE offers much food for thought & pain together with ZTE

This photo taken on April 19, 2018 shows the ZTE logo on a building in Nanjing in China's eastern Jiangsu province.AFP/Getty Images

 

Ban on ZTE offers much food for thought

The US ban on sales of chips and components to China's telecommunications company ZTE shocked Chinese society. Some Chinese people are furious at US behavior, others think ZTE deserves it, while some advocate Beijing take it as a warning and boost the country's domestic semiconductor industry. Some are more pessimistic and feel China cannot beat the US in a trade war.

The ZTE case can be argued as a show of high-tech hegemony by the US. It is absurd for Washington to pull this maneuver at the eleventh hour simply because ZTE failed to cut bonuses for its 35 employees as promised. The logic works for US society and the West is watching the case for fun. But certain Chinese people are also taking pleasure in it.  This is the reality.

It must be admitted that the US is powerful and it has started to punch China hard. The rise of China has reached a juncture where Beijing has prompted Washington to ponder its status as the world's No.1 and provided a somewhat disjointed West with a reason to strengthen its solidarity. The impulse to contain China's rise is emerging among Western elites. Radical and even risky policies toward China are gaining increasing support.

China needs a strong will, an open mind and the capacity to fight back. Through political solidarity and a robust economy, Beijing should be tough enough to withstand the slings and arrows. China needs to incubate and shape strategic technology research and development.

The reason why chip technology has experienced such limited progress despite years of advocacy is that the Chinese system has not yet formed a key driving force for it.

Beijing must develop its "nuclear weapons" in the field of economics to make the outside world fear strategic confrontation with China.

China should also make friends worldwide, including Western nations, so as to unite all the forces that can be united. It must not overly focus on gains and losses in friction with others. Beijing must protect its interests, but in the meantime it cannot isolate itself doing so.

China needs to accept diverse opinions on the internet, governing them but also adapting to them so as to prevent online opinions from impacting on society's overall judgment and confidence.

It is hoped that China will develop a greater core competitiveness which other countries cannot match. This is an expectation of all Chinese people.

American business to pain together in ZTE case


https://youtu.be/XgbspspyfLQ

The US government sales ban of American components to the ZTE Corporation will surely inflict significant damage to the company. However, the pattern of globalization shows that not only will the US not secure a victory, it will also suffer a harsh blowback. The US stock market came to a similar conclusion, and media from around the world calculated that the US' future losses will be significant.

Qualcomm is a major mobile chip supplier for ZTE mobile phones. According to Reuters, Qualcomm will be harmed during this strike because ZTE is an important client, and its competitors could benefit from ZTE choosing alternative manufacturers. Furthermore, Qualcomm might suffer more setbacks when China retaliates on the US for this ban.

According to studies by various media organizations, the full implementation of the seven-year sales ban on ZTE will amount to combined loss of $6.8 billion for Qualcomm, Acacia Communications, and Oclaro Inc. It will also affect more than 32,000 employees. Due to this estimation, Acacia Communications stocks dropped 35.95 percent this week. Additionally, Intel and Microsoft will be hit by shockwaves in the tech industry.

Over the years, China has grown to become the largest sales market for US electronic chips, providing US companies with substantial funds for research and development. Losing the Chinese market might cause these US companies to decline in quality, which could result in a bleak financial future.US semiconductor companies are facing real threats as they will likely be taken over by their opponents.

The US will also be hurt from increasing suspicions to its business environment. The US government ended ZTE's business dealings with American companies by force, due to "35 employees' bonuses issues" for the company with 80,000 employees. Is the American business environment still trustworthy? Does this not imply that the US government can bully whoever it wishes? Cooperation with American companies is already difficult and being reviewed by the US government for political correctness will not make matters easier.

Some Westerners criticize the risks of doing business with Chinese companies, but not one multinational company has experienced the same mistreatment ZTE has been subjected to. The proper name for ZTE's case could be called "35 people bonus crisis" and if this is what starts the cooperation breakdown between the US and China, or globalization in general, it will be one of the most bizarre jokes in history.

China will hit back in the best way it knows and inflict losses for American companies in China. Washington should not have any delusions of tolerance from China after causing such damage to its businesses.

With China and the US trading blows in this situation, the US economy and trade relations will delve into chaos. Investments of American companies in China far exceed Chinese companies in the US, meaning that the US has more to lose since these investments will not be spared during this fight.

Most importantly, Chinese society will lose faith in cooperation with American high-tech companies. The "35 people bonus crisis" will also serve as a push for China determination to develop its semiconductor industry to replace America's components.

China will endure a sting in the high-tech sector confrontation, but the US will suffer lasting pain. China has been slow to develop its semiconductor technology because it is cheaper to purchase American products in the past. Developing chips and operating systems will require massive market support and China's yearly import of $200 billion can definitely cover the funding for this research.

The consequences of punishing ZTE is now out of Washington's control. The intertwined economies of China and the US are like "conjoined twins" and separation will cause major pain for both sides. Washington's thinking that this is a unilateral punishment is naïve, and this short-sighted judgement will be paid at the expense of American companies and enterprises. - - Global Times


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