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Saturday, February 23, 2019

Flat property market seen for Penang

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Resilient values: Geh believes that both landed and high-rise units in prime locations will hold their values.

Research house says it will be buyers’ market over the short term

THE Penang property market is expected to remain flat yet resilient this year and could bottom out within the next two years.

CBRE|WTW Research in its Real Estate Market Outlook 2019 says it will be a buyers’ market over the short term, particularly for residential properties.

“Under the prevailing subdued market, launches of smaller, single phase developments would reduce in the short-term but larger integrated mixed developments or townships would carry on.

“The property market is anticipated to remain generally soft and flat in 2019. This is in consideration of the challenging global and domestic economy, rising cost of living, as well as supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the high-rise residential sector.”

The property consultancy however adds that Penang’s property market still demonstrates resilience, aided further by recovery in the economy.

“Meanwhile, the current excess in supply will effectively be absorbed by the market. Benefits of reforms undertaken by the new government could also trickle down to the local property market.”

Raine & Horne Malaysia senior partner and FIABCI Malaysian chapter president Michael Geh says transactions and values will most likely remain flat, at best.

“As residential market activity, in terms of transacted units, has been falling over the last few consecutive quarters, at best the year-on-year levels will hold. In light of the overall soft market, property values are not expected to rise in 2019,” he tells StarBizweek.

Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents Penang chairman Mark Saw says the Penang residential market will see “some correction” this year.

“However, long-term planning on infrastructure improvements will go some way towards ensuring those locations currently only accessible by cars are better served with public transport.

“For those who have been holding back their launches the past few years, there may be a need to start selling, especially if land were bought on loans.”

He adds that measures taken by the state government will help to spur the Penang property market.

“With the waiver of the 3% approval fee for foreign purchasers starting from Feb 1, Penang must be seen to be investor friendly and foreign buyers should be encouraged to come.”

Meanwhile, Knight Frank Malaysia in its latest research report Real Estate Highlights for the Second Half of 2018 says the general outlook for the Penang property market “remains mixed without a dominant overall trend”.

“However, resulting from the interplay of supply and demand as well as the general economy, different sectors are performing differently. The residential sector, which is the leading sector in terms of total volume and value of transactions, has shown some improvement during the first half of 2018. “It registered a 5.4% increase in the volume of transactions year–on-year. This trend is expected to continue.”

Saw says prices of landed property in Penang are unlikely to drop.

“However, the high-rise market will remain challenging and developers will need to continue to offer incentives as well as alternate options of home ownership.

“Developers with deeper pockets or less loans may look into rent-to-buy schemes in tandem with the recently-announced National Home Ownership Campaign by the government.”

Geh believes that both landed and high-rise units in prime locations will hold their values, while speculatively-purchased condominiums will be affected.

“Government announcements on transportation plans, infrastructure and stimulus plans are among actions that can help stimulate the Penang property market tremendously,” he says.

Easing overhang

CBRE|WTW Research says the overhang within the Penang residential property market is likely to ease over the next two to three years, with developers offering special packages and postponing launches, all of which would allow demand to catch up with supply.

“The medium to long-term outlook remains positive given that various policies and efforts are being undertaken by the government,” it says.

Citing data by the National Property Information Centre, CBRE|WTW Research says there are over 2,200 high-rise overhang units worth nearly RM1.6bil as at the second quarter of 2018. “This is due to the abundant apartment and condominium units launched, constructed and completed within the past three-to-five years, coupled with the high rejection rate of end financing, unreleased bumiputra units and low demand for units in secondary locations.”

In terms of unsold residential units, CBRE|WTW Research says around 34% or 1,300 of the overhang units are in the RM500,001 to RM1mil per unit price range.

“On the other hand, units priced at RM1mil and above form the bulk (58%) of the total overhang valued at approximately RM1.75bil.

” The property consultancy adds that high-rise projects, particularly, are experiencing increased sales pressure amidst an oversupply situation.

“Under the challenging market, developers have resorted to offering incentives such as rebates on selling prices, zero or low downpayment, easy instalment payment of up to 24 months, deferred payment of (say) 30% of the selling price over five years at 0% interest, free legal fees and one year’s maintenance fee.

“Complimentary packages include interior design package, kitchen and electrical appliance vouchers as well as referral and reward schemes.”

Office and retail markets

Knight Frank Malaysia says the office sector is still enjoying stable rents and high occupancies, pointing out however that the overall occupancy rates in some buildings have dropped marginally.

“This favourable state of affairs is expected to continue for the next few quarters as new supply is only expected to come on-stream beyond 2020.”

CBRE|WTW Research says pent-up demand for newer and prime offices persists in Penang.

“New supply of offices in Penang in the past ten years was limited. New prime purpose-built office buildings completed within the past three years such as HunzaTower and Straits Quay Commercial Suites are enjoying commendable occupancy rates, although charging new benchmark rentals.

“Newly set-up offices, as well as offices relocated from older office buildings, comprise the tenants in these new buildings. Office occupiers are seeking newer office buildings that serve their contemporary needs and enhance their corporate image.”

It adds that pent-up demand for newer and prime offices would continue in the short-term, as most of the upcoming purpose-built office buildings are scheduled for completion in year 2020 and beyond.

“Older buildings are likely to experience a slide in demand thus lower rentals and capital prices.”

CBRE|WTW Research says stable occupancy rates can be anticipated, adding that rentals will increase.

“As at mid-2018, the overall occupancy rate of purpose-built office buildings in Penang declined slightly to 77% from 82% year-on-year. Occupancy rates are anticipated to generally remain in the region of 80% in near future.

“Rentals of prime office space in Georgetown were between RM2.50 and RM3.50 per sq ft. Prime offices outside George Town, particularly newer buildings in Bayan Lepas/Bayan Baru and Tanjung Pinang (Tanjung Tokong), registered higher rentals of RM3.30 to RM4.50 per sq ft.”

Due to increasing maintenance cost, CBRE|WTW Research says rentals of office space in most buildings are expected to increase in the short term.

“The overall average rental of prime offices would also increase, pulled-up by new entrants with higher asking rentals.”

As for the retail sub-sector in Penang, Knight Frank Malaysia says the current supply remains unchanged, adding that a more challenging scenario is anticipated for this sector with new supply to come on-stream with the expected opening of IKEA in Batu Kawan in the current quarter and the extension of Penang Times Square.

“Other retail centres/expansion of retail centres will be adding on the supply in 2020 and 2022.”

CBRE|WTW Research says the retail sector in Penang is likely to be flat, buffered by cautious optimism.

“Mixed performances will be more evident between the better and under-performing retail complexes, of which the latter is likely to drag down the overall occupancy and average rental rates.

“With abundant supply in the pipeline, shoppers can look forward to exciting shopping experiences.”

It says the overall occupancy rate stood at 72% as at mid-2018, with 79% for Penang island and 63% for Seberang Prai.

“Retail lots on the ground floor of selected prime retail complexes on the island commanded higher gross rental rates of up to RM45 per sq ft.”

Meanwhile, Geh says better-managed malls in prime locations are sustainable.

“These malls have sustained rental rates but vacancy factors have certainly increased by 5% to 10%.

“There is no oversupply but a rise in vacancy factors. Going forward, the general population’s purchasing trend remains cautious and wary of big-ticket items.”

Saw is less optimistic about the Penang retail sector, saying “this sector has been saturated for a few years and there is no end in sight”.

By Wugene Mahalingam, The Star

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MANY international experts and organisations have expressed concern about the global economic outlook this year.

Tighter monetary policy, weaker earnings growth and political challenges are confronting major economies.

The long-running US-China trade war and uncertainty around the UK’s exit from the European Union have soured business and consumer sentiment in recent months. However, the risk of a recession remains small, say economists.

PAS left in a state of confusion, the only way is to lie

Awkward turnaround: (From left) Nik Abduh, Hadi and Takiyuddin find PAS in a precarious position after a scandal over political dishonesty - Provided by SMG Business Services Sdn Bhd.

WE take for granted politicians lying to win elections, or doing so as and when necessary. It’s a given of course, so it would be naïve of anyone to think otherwise, but Malaysians learnt something new recently.

It’s probably the first time we’ve come to hear of Syariah-compliant lies, and to hear these supposedly respected religious scholars expounding on the need to lie, or to conceal a destructive truth, has left Malaysia flabbergasted.

This kind of pathological lying must have caused the recent spate of head-scratching and conflicting statements.

PAS is in a state of confusion. The hardcore grassroots PAS members – ones who would donate their life savings, or even body parts, if asked, to save party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang in his court case – must be disappointed.

Many of these diehards have either applied for leave or requested to stop working so they can campaign in the Semenyih by-election.

Their mission, together with Umno’s, is simple – to defeat the Pakatan Harapan candidate.

Suddenly, PAS secretary-general Datuk Takiyuddin Hassan has advised them not to bother working so hard.

In his own words, the Islamist party’s “degree of commitment” in supporting Barisan Nasional in the Semenyih by-election varies from the Cameron Highlands polls.

Simply put, relak lah bro. Tak payah kempen gila gila.

Then comes the most bewildering part – PAS is now supporting Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

A written commitment has been given to the Prime Minister as PAS’ support for the leadership of Dr Mahathir for the sake of religion, race and country until the next general election.

So, one minute, Dr Mahathir is PAS’ greatest enemy, and the next (well, a 45-minute meeting later), these poor PAS campaigners must return to the villages to reveal that, well, the Prime Minister isn’t so bad.

In the interest of race and religion, we must now support him against the infidels.

The infidels, the DAP, were once their political ally, of course, but that’s another story and another fib to justify. The same formula applies to another ex-infidel, Umno, too.

It must be difficult because to sustain the new narrative, these party operatives need to come up with an improved mantra. Well, the only way is to lie, of course.

Of course, Ana (Ana is Arabic for “I” or “me”) knows that we can’t accept Dr Mahathir, but Hadi has said it’s ok to lie, so we have to lie lah.

And that comes after Bachok MP Nik Abduh Nik Aziz’s dramatic admission that he was ordered to be untruthful.

He revealed that Hadi instructed him to deny that a recording of him confirming PAS payments from Umno was genuine, even though he wanted to divulge that it was true.

Nik Abduh said he was torn between admitting the truth that it was indeed his voice and refuting the audio recording’s authenticity.

“I had two choices. One was to tell the truth and admit. Second, to deny it.

“It was a closed-door meeting to a targeted audience. Very closed. My right was to keep the secrecy and not to betray it. Both were Syariah-compliant choices,” said Nik Abduh.

What an incredible explanation. But Hadi took it even further. When questioned if it was permissible to lie to protect Islam, Hadi apparently conceded.

“Of course, if a criminal came here to look for a victim, will you identify the victim (to the criminal)? We will be compelled to lie to save the person ... there are times (where lying is permissible),” he was quoted.

Demi menjaga maslahat. To put it succinctly, a white lie is acceptable, especially one that brings benefit. To stretch it further, in order to accommodate Hadi’s argument, it is rational to lie if it means saving someone’s life.

Well, in this case, it looks more like it’s to save Hadi’s political life, and that of his party’s and its other leaders.

He still can’t convince Malaysians – except perhaps his fanatical supporters – why he didn’t go all the way in suing Claire Rewcastle Brown of Sarawak Report, who accused PAS of pocketing millions from Umno.

His decision to withdraw the defamation suit has resulted in these allegations hanging over the party like a spectre, leaving many Malaysians in no doubt of their belief.

The party’s integrity and religious facade have been compromised by these bearded politicians with their flowing robes, all of which have left the party flag in tatters.

They would like to continue projecting themselves as politicians who lead a modest life sans interest in material pursuits, but the allegations and images that have surfaced paint a very different picture.

Of course, we believe the BMW superbike was borrowed for a photo opportunity and, naturally, the Porsche Cayman was merely under one person’s name but belonged to another. Sure, sure, we believe you, but err... sorry, we lied.

The list of acquisitions is mindboggling because RM90mil was apparently used to purchase the said vehicles and cars with brands such as BMW, Mini Cooper, Toyota Vellfire, Range Rover, Audi Q7, Audi A6, Toyota Camry, Toyota Fortuner, Volkswagen Passat and Mercedes Benz.

And by the way, don’t forget the bungalow and the wives, too. Wives, as in plural.

These revelations must have come as a curve ball for their supporters in the rural constituencies who ride their kapcai (underbone motorcycle).

With no conclusion, no convincing explanations (or lies), enduring sleepless nights, and having to be hauled up by the dreaded Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, the only way out was to seek medical help.

Well, the old doctor has been trained in the human anatomy and knows the parts of the body that cause sickness and pain.

Malaysians were sure about where he would tap, or squeeze, if necessary, to trace the cause of the illness.

PAS found the right doctor and, of course, they were so convinced and impressed that they left the consultation convinced that they had to support the doctor.

We can assume that the doctor, like his fellow practitioners, has asked them to return for follow-up checks.

Here’s a little vignette of wisdom I found online: pathological lying (also called pseudologia fantastica and mythomania) is a behaviour of habitual or compulsive lying.

Pathological lying has been defined as “falsification entirely disproportionate to any discernible end in view, may be extensive and very complicated, and may manifest over a period of years or even a lifetime”.

The report also said that prolonged lying can lead to patients suffering from sustained periods of delusion, and consequently, may see conspiracies, plots, sub-plots, and possibly a vote of no confidence.

Sorry, but I pulled a fast one in that last line.




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Wednesday, February 20, 2019

“There’s no way the US can crush Huawei”

https://youtu.be/vxoeLLq14zI
Ren Zhengfei: 'The world cannot leave us because we are more advanced' -

https://youtu.be/qxq6jNyF3Ik
https://youtu.be/1HVhWDL1QkE

Huawei has been under considerable pressure from the U.S., which has been convincing allies in Australia, the UK, and New Zealand to not use the company's 5G equipment due to security concerns.

Huawei founder speaks amid pressure: 'The U.S. can't crush us'



"There's no way the U.S. can crush us," Zhengfei told the broadcaster. "The world needs us because we are more advanced. Even if they persuade more countries not to use us temporarily, we can always scale things down a bit." 

 [Tap to expand] 

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei describes the arrest of his daughter Meng Wanzhou, the company's chief financial officer, as politically motivated
The UK is set to make a decision on whether it will use Huawei's equipment in March or April, but the country's National Cyber Security Centre has reportedly found ways to "limit the risks" of its technology.

Ren said regardless of ban in the UK, Huawei will continue to invest in the country, and promised the company will increase its focus there if the U.S. doesn't work out.  

"We still trust in the UK, and we hope that the UK will trust us even more," he added. "We will invest even more in the UK. Because if the U.S. doesn't trust us, then we will shift our investment from the U.S. to the UK on an even bigger scale."

On the arrest of his daughter, Ren objected to the actions of U.S., calling them "politically motivated."

"The U.S. likes to sanction others, whenever there's an issue, they'll use such combative methods," he said.

"We object to this. But now that we've gone down this path, we'll let the courts settle it."

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Tuesday, February 19, 2019

In a tough market, young South Koreans vie for the security of government jobs

Bureaucratic staying power:  While boy band BTS may be going places (no, that Grammy award is not theirs), a government survey shows that one in four middle-school students in South Korea dream of one day becoming not K-pop star or the next Steve Jobs, but that 'adjussi' in the civil service - Reuters
Desire for stability: Many South Koreans worry far more about jobs and the economy than they do about the nuclear threat from North Korea, like this jobseeker at a jobs fair in Seoul last November. — AFP
South Korean Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki, third from left, makes remarks at a meeting on reviving the economy at the government complex in Seoul on Jan. 9, 2019. (YONHAP / EPA-EFE/REX)
In a tough market, young South Koreans dream for the security of government jobs instead of tech innovation and K-pop success.

For more than three years, Kim Ju-hee has been studying full time for an exam that feels like her only shot at a good life in South Korea.

She’s lost count of how many times she’s taken the nation’s civil service exam and failed — though she knows it’s been at least 10. The 26-year-old is not sure what she’ll do if she fails again, so she figures that spending more than eight hours a day studying for her next try, on April 6, makes sense.

Kim hopes to become a government tax clerk, which offers a starting salary of about $17,000, and work for the government until retirement.

“There just aren’t other good jobs,” she said in a phone interview from her home in Seoul, where she lives with her parents.

The most sought-after careers among teenagers and young adults in South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, are government jobs they can count on to get them to their golden years, not jobs innovating and helping companies grow in the private sector.

Analysts say it’s a symptom of the nation’s slowing economic growth and competition from China in export-driven industries that young South Koreans, about a fifth of the 51 million population, are flocking to what they consider risk-free government jobs not vulnerable to the vicissitudes of the economy. The situation is particularly concerning because it was private companies in sectors like electronics, autos and shipbuilding that fueled South Korea’s rapid growth from one of the world’s poorest nations in the 1960s into an economic powerhouse, analysts say.

Many young people in South Korea say they don’t expect nongovernment job prospects to improve anytime soon despite a host of measures announced by South Korean President Moon Jae-in nearly a year ago to boost employment, including government stipends to companies.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, right, puts on a safety helmet during his tour of a hydrogen plant in Ulsan, South Korea. Critics have pointed to the lackluster economy to say the president should be focusing on bettering South Korean lives, engaging with North Korea.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, right, puts on a safety helmet during his tour of a hydrogen plant in Ulsan, South Korea. Critics have pointed to the lackluster economy to say the president should be focusing on bettering South Korean lives, engaging with North Korea. (YONHAP / EPA-EFE / REX)

Unemployment among those ages 15 to 29 reached 11.6% last spring — a level Moon called catastrophic, compared with a jobless rate that hovered between 3% and 4% for the rest of the country’s workforce. Taking into account young adults who are working part-time jobs or studying for an employment exam like Kim, nearly 1 in 4 are out of a job. By comparison, in the U.S., unemployment among those ages 15 to 24 fluctuated between 8% and 9% in 2018. South Korea uses a different age bracket to calculate its youth unemployment because of mandatory two-year military service.

The desire for stability and security starts so young that 1 in 4 middle school students say they dream of one day becoming not a K-pop star or the next Steve Jobs, but a public sector bureaucrat, according to a government survey from 2017.

Many South Koreans worry far more about jobs and the economy than they do about the nuclear threat from North Korea. Conservatives in South Korea who are critical of Moon’s efforts at detente with North Korea point to the economy, saying his focus should be on bettering lives in South Korea, not on engaging with the North.

Competition for South Korea’s 1.07 million government jobs is fierce. In one round of exams Kim took last year, more than 200,000 people applied, and the 4,953 highest-scoring candidates were hired for open positions — an acceptance rate of 2.4%. By comparison, Harvard’s 2018 acceptance rate was 4.59%.

Kim Y.H., 22, who is about to graduate from college in February with a degree in Japanese, recently began studying for a civil service exam to become a customs agent. She said the popularity of public sector jobs was a sign that her generation is pessimistic about South Korea’s economic outlook.

“The country won’t guarantee your future, even if you’re a college graduate,” she said. “So of course we want to go with the most stable path that’s out there.”

There isn’t the expectation that you’ll grow or get good treatment in the private sector. People choose stability over risk or challenge. Joo Won, economist

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One research report published last year estimated that as many as half a million South Koreans were studying for civil service exams full time instead of working. In 2017, the Hyundai Research Institute estimated that the economic cost from the lost work potential of so many young people spending years studying to get government jobs, rather than joining the private workforce, was more than $15 billion.

Moon’s administration has tried to encourage employment among young adults by paying small and medium-sized businesses to hire them, and by offering government-matched savings programs for young workers. He has also pledged to add 174,000 government jobs by 2022 to meet the heightened demand.

Some analysts, however, say the administration’s stopgap measures won’t do much to fix the problems underlying the push for government jobs.

“There isn’t the expectation that you’ll grow or get good treatment in the private sector. People choose stability over risk or challenge,” said Joo Won, one of the authors of the Hyundai study. “There are only so many public sector jobs the government can create. It won’t fix the situation.”

Many analysts point to the widening gap between the behemoth family-owned conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy, such as Samsung and LG, and other companies. Large corporations including the chaebol, as they are known, accounted for about half of the revenue in South Korea in 2017 but provided only 20% of the jobs in the country, according to the most recent figures available from the government. And while their share of the economy grew, the number of jobs they offered dropped, because of consolidation and downsizing within the corporations amid the economic slowdown.


 
A Samsung flag and South Korean flag outside the Samsung building in Seoul in January. Analysts say part of problem for young job seekers in South Korea is the widening gap between the quality of jobs at family-owned conglomerates like Samsung and the rest of the players.
A Samsung flag and South Korean flag outside the Samsung building in Seoul in January. Analysts say part of problem for young job seekers in South Korea is the widening gap between the quality of jobs at family-owned conglomerates like Samsung and the rest of the players. (Jung Yeon-je / AFP/Getty Images)


That polarisation means stark disparity in income and working conditions between those employed by the conglomerates and those employed elsewhere – with starting salaries at large corporations averaging about US$36,000 (RM 146,370), compared with approximately US$24,000 (RM97,580) at smaller companies – fuelling intense competition for a decreasing number of coveted jobs. “The world was harsher than I thought,” she said.

“If you work for a small or medium-sized company, you become a second-class citizen” with a fraction of the income, long hours and poor benefits, said Kwon Soon-won, a business professor at Sookmyung University in Seoul.

Those without the impressive resumes increasingly needed for jobs at the top companies — internships, perfect grades, proficiency in a foreign language or three — are turning to civil service exams.

Applicants to civil service exams tripled from 1995 to 2016, according to a report by the Seoul Youth Guarantee Center. One online bookseller said it saw a 73.5% increase in sales of civil service exam prep books in 2016 compared with the previous year.

Kwon said South Korea’s high education level is part of the problem — although 70% of those ages 24 to 35 have college degrees, the economy hasn’t kept pace by creating enough quality jobs to meet the increased expectations of those graduates.

Kim Eun-ji, 26, certainly feels that way. With an economics degree from Chung-Ang University, a top-10 college in Seoul, she applied to more than 50 jobs at a wide range of companies big and small but never got past first-round interviews.

“If I think about how many people there are like me in the country, it just feels pointless,” she said, leaving an employment center in Seoul.

She has been studying for a government-issued computerized accounting license to better her employment prospects. Among her friends who graduated around the same time she did in early 2016, only about half are employed full time, Kim said.

Her roommate, who keeps deferring her college graduation, has been making a modest but steady income publishing romance novels online, which strikes her as a more viable option at a steady income than traditional employment.

As a kid, Kim Ju-hee had dreamed of becoming a singer or a teacher. But as an eighth-grader, hearing how hard it was to get a stable job, she set her sights on becoming a bureaucrat.

She’s gotten close to giving up, occasionally applying to other jobs or working part time here and there. But she worries that if she gives up, she’ll have spent years of her life in vain because none of what she studied for the exam will be useful for other jobs.

Victoria Kim

Victoria Kim reports from Seoul, South Korea, for the Los Angeles Times. Since joining the paper in 2007, she has covered the state and federal courts and the Korean community in Los Angeles. Her work has included investigations on the cover-up of the sex abuse scandal in the Los Angeles Archdiocese, killing of unarmed suspects by the Inglewood police, underpaid workers in the garment district and unaccredited law schools in California. She has previously written for the Associated Press in South Korea and West Africa, as well as the Financial Times in New York. Victoria was raised in Seoul and graduated from Harvard University.


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Monday, February 18, 2019

China to US: You’re lying about Huawei, unjust and immoral bullying

https://youtu.be/WdNobdkSQyA

Yang Jiechi defends Huawei at the Munich Security Conference

https://youtu.be/vuqL7fBDWrI

US trying to sabotage Huawei, ZTE and Sino-5G. Too late. Game over. China Rising Radio Sinoland

https://youtu.be/UN3cUQ2LdhQ

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Saturday, February 16, 2019

More people around the world see U.S. power and influence as a ‘major threat’ to their country

https://youtu.be/jYs75AzA4xU



By John Gramlich and Kat Devlin

A growing share of people around the world see U.S. power and influence as a “major threat” to their country, and these views are linked with attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the United States as a whole, according to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 22 nations since 2013.

As confidence in president, favorable views of America have declined, more see U.S. power as a 'major threat'
 As confidence in president, favorable views of America have declined, more see U.S. power as a 'major threat'

A median of 45% across the surveyed nations see U.S. power and influence as a major threat, up from 38% in the same countries during Trump’s first year as president in 2017 and 25% in 2013, during the administration of Barack Obama. The long-term increase in the share of people who see American power as a threat has occurred alongside declines in the shares of people who say they have confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs and who have a favorable view of the United States. (For more about global views toward the U.S. president and the country he leads, see “Trump’s International Ratings Remain Low, Especially Among Key Allies.”)

Despite these changes, U.S. power and influence still ranks below other perceived threats around the world. Considerably larger shares of people point to global climate change (seen as a major threat by a median of 67%), the Islamic militant group known as ISIS (cited by 62%) and cyberattacks (cited by 61%). U.S. power and influence, in fact, is not seen as the top threat in any of the countries surveyed.

People see U.S. power and influence as a greater threat in the Trump era

 People see U.S. power and influence as a greater threat in the Trump era

Still, in 18 of the 22 countries, there were statistically significant increases in the share of people who see American power and influence as a major threat between 2013 and 2018. That includes increases of 30 percentage points in Germany, 29 points in France, and 26 points in Brazil and Mexico. And while these shares rose substantially in many countries after Trump’s election, they increased further in several nations between Trump’s first and second year in office.

In Germany and France, for instance, the share of people who see U.S. power and influence as a major threat went up by 14 and 13 percentage points, respectively, between 2017 and 2018. Other notable year-over-year increases occurred in Tunisia (11 points), Canada and Argentina (8 points each), South Africa (7 points) and Brazil and Russia (6 points each).

Other nations bucked this trend, however. In Spain, for example, the share of people who see American power as a major threat fell by 17 points between 2017 and 2018 (from 59% to 42%). Still, people in Spain remain much more likely to see the U.S. as a threat today than in 2013.

Overall, there are 10 nations surveyed where roughly half or more now see U.S. power as a major threat, with the biggest shares saying this in South Korea (67%), Japan (66%) and Mexico (64%).

In South Korea, equal shares point to U.S. power and influence and to North Korea’s nuclear program as a major threat to their nation (each is cited by 67% of the public). However, several other perceived threats to South Koreans outrank U.S. power and influence, including global climate change (named by 86% of South Koreans), China’s power and influence (cited by 82%), cyberattacks from other countries (cited by 81%) and the condition of the global economy (cited by 74%). South Koreans have long perceived American power as a major threat to their country: 66% said this in 2013 and 70% said it in 2017.

In many of the surveyed countries, concerns about American power and influence are connected with views of Trump: People who have little or no confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs are more likely than those who have confidence in Trump to see U.S. power and influence as a top threat to their country. This includes several longtime U.S. allies, including Canada, the UK and Australia.

The same pattern appears when it comes to views of the U.S. in general, as opposed to its president. In most surveyed nations, people who have a more unfavorable view of the U.S. are also more likely to say that American power and influence is a threat to their nation.

Topics: U.S. Global Image and Anti-Americanism, Country Image, Donald Trump
Photo of John Gramlich

is a writer/editor at Pew Research Center.


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Friday, February 15, 2019

Mega trends EAC must address


THE government is to be congratulated for establishing the new Economic Action Council that will give a better sense of direction and priorities for the nation to overcome the short-term economic challenges, such as rising cost of living, cost of doing business, restoring investor confidence and promoting sustainable economic recovery.

The Council should move with a sense of urgency. Its composition is balanced with a cross-section of representation, including from the orang asli community and consumer associations, which is praiseworthy as it does not just represent business interests. The presence of distinguished economists is also reassuring.

But I propose that the EAC also develops a longer term National Economic Strategy. To move forward, we need to identify the key mega trends that will impact on the nation in the next five to 10 years and then develop a comprehensive and holistic national strategy to address them.

I have identified here 10 strategic shifts or mega trends that need to be addressed.

1. On the international scene, we see a shift from geo-politics to geo-economics, requiring nations to adopt a geo-strategic response. This can be seen from Brexit and the US-China trade war. Geo-economics, including the control over economic assets such as oil and gas, will have a greater impact on international diplomacy. Increasingly, we will see economic and trade diplomacy becoming more important than political diplomacy to maintain global peace, stability and prosperity. We need to be able to step up to this level to analyse and strategise our response to geo-economic and geo-strategic challenges.

2. We also see a shift in the global centre of gravity from West to East with the rise of China and re-emergence of Japan as well as the growth of India and Korea. We need to identify a strategy to succeed in enlarging our presence in these markets and create new opportunities for our entrepreneurs and SMEs in China and Japan.

3. The world is also witnessing a rapid technological shift towards digital disruption and the Fourth Industrial Revolution with growing interest and applications in artificial intelligence, robotics and the Internet of Things. Big Data can be a strategic competitive advantage. The impact of drones and driverless vehicles will make a big impact on society. What is our national strategy to deal with these new technological advances? Hopefully, the EAC will also develop a strategic game plan to deal with these challenges and opportunities.

4. We also see an eco-sustainability shift with growing concern over climate change. This will drive demand for green technology and clean energy. We have a dynamic Energy, Technology, Science, Climate Change and Environment Minister. More must respond to support this ministry and its institutions. We need to embrace clean energy faster and more comprehensively.

5. Demographic shift will lead to an ageing society and a hollowing out of the demographic middle where we will have more aged elderly and younger cohorts below 30 but fewer of the middle-aged. It has been estimated that 20% of our population will be above 60 by 2040. Hence, we need new strategies and action plans to deal with the changing demographics.

6. Consumer shift will see the rise of e-commerce as we move from bricks to clicks. The rise of online business and e-commerce will not only impact on retail business but also on traditional banking, education and healthcare with the risk of fintech (financial technology), online learning and distance education, and telemedicine (pic). We need to embrace and adapt to these trends.

7. Globally, we also see a political shift from liberalism to the emergence of the right. The rightward shift led to the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States and is also partly the cause of Brexit. Is this era the end of liberalism? What can we do to bring people back to the centre? This trend has also led to a consolidation of the Malay right-wing with the strengthening ties between Umno and PAS. While the immediate focus of the EAC is economic, it also needs a strategy to deal with this phenomenon as it will impact on race relations and religious harmony, which are so essential for peace and stability to facilitate business and economic growth.

8. A shift in wealth and income has caused growing inequalities. The income gap between the highest earning population and the bottom 20% has grown. The income gap and inequalities can destabilise peace and stability. New thinking and new strategies need to be adopted to overcome the growing inequalities in our society.

9. Urbanisation shift arising from continued rural-urban migration will also cause urban poverty to rise. Urban poverty is a challenge that must be urgently tackled. The urban poor is a microcosm of Malaysian society as it comprises all ethnic groups. The rising cost of living affecting the urban poor needs to be prioritised.

10. A freedom shift is very evident after the 14th General Election with Malaysians feeling more free. This is good as it will lead to stronger support and protection of human rights such as freedom of speech, freedom of expression and freedom of association.

I believe the above 10 strategic shifts and key challenges are important priorities the government and the people must work on together.

We should have new policies to address these challenges. In formulating new policies, it is important to focus on the 4Cs – consistency, clarity, certainty and coherence.

The new Malaysia also needs the 3Is – integrity, inclusiveness and innovation. Old problems need new innovative solutions and new problems also need new ideas to resolve.

We should work together to address the above key challenges. We need to come together as a nation seeking national reconciliation and unity.

With a common purpose, we can move forward with renewed determination to build a new Malaysia that is sustainable and not a flash in the pan.

As the government has already established the EAC, I propose that it should also consider establishing a National Strategy Commission to plan future scenarios for the nation as well as effective strategies to overcome them.

A National Strategy Initiative should also be established to carry out in-depth Futures Studies for the country.

Kingsley Strategic Institute | Where Leaders Meet




TAN SRI MICHAEL YEOH OON KHENG

President Kingsley Strategic Institute






The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) announced the establishing of the Economic Action Council (EAC), which will respond to and take acti.