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Saturday, December 25, 2021

South Korea pardons disgraced ex-president Park Geun-hye who was misled/cheated by her close friend Choi Soon-sil with the Church of Eternal Life

 Park Geun-hye became South Korea's first democratically elected leader to be thrown out of office after being impeached in 2017. - Reuters

The Star South Korea pardons  disgraced ex-president  Park Geun-hye
 https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2021/12/24/south-korea-pardons-disgraced-ex-president-park-geun-hye
 

Who is Choi Soon Sil ?

Choi Soon Sil, the 'female Rasputin' at centre of South Korea's political scandals


Protesters wearing masks of South Korean President Park Geun Hye (right) and her confidante Choi Soon Sil posing for a performance during a rally denouncing a scandal over President Park's aide in Seoul on Oct 27, 2016. PHOTO: AFP

Ms Choi, 60, is daughter of the late Choi Tae Min, a shadowy religious figure who married six times, had multiple pseudonyms and set up a cult-like group known as the Church of Eternal Life.

The Church of Eternal Life | Fallout: The Frontier Wiki

243 West Olive Street, Westville, NJ 08093 — (856) 456-2196

Mr Choi befriended a traumatised Ms Park after the 1974 and 1979 assassinations of her mother and father, who he said had appeared in his dreams asking for his help.

Mr Choi became a key mentor for the young Ms Park, a role that angered a number of key aides to her father, the country's then military ruler Park Chung Hee  

see more https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/choi-soon-sil-the-female-rasputin-at-the-centre-of-south-koreas-political-scandal

 

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Friday, December 24, 2021

Yuan’s rising global influence

 

The currency’s correlation with an MSCI Inc index of its developing-nation peers rose to record in September on a weekly basis before edging back slightly amid the Omicron outbreak, Bloomberg data show.



` BEIJING: The Chinese yuan is having a greater impact on its emerging-market counterparts than ever before and may play a crucial role in determining their performance in the coming year.

` The currency’s correlation with an MSCI Inc index of its developing-nation peers rose to record in September on a weekly basis before edging back slightly amid the Omicron outbreak, Bloomberg data show.

` While the close relationship is partly a result of China’s large weighting, it’s also been driven by the yuan’s links to the Brazilian real reaching the strongest since at least 2008, and that with India’s rupee touching a three-year high.The yuan’s rising global influence is yet another sign of China’s deepening connections across the world economy.

` Investors are increasingly being drawn to its bonds as an alternative to United States Treasuries, while some banks are calling for the yuan to join the dollar, euro and yen as a global reserve currency.

` ADVERTISING Yet with China’s potential being offset by murky policy making and regulatory crackdowns, being tied too closely to the yuan may also backfire.

` “China is going to be a very important element of emerging-market stability and the growth picture,” said Magdalena Polan, principal economist at PGIM Ltd in London.

` “The willingness for Chinese policy makers to stabilise growth will be very important to the outlook for Latam and Asia and South Africa, as countries there still rely quite a lot on exports from China.”

` While correlations can be measured in many ways, China’s increasing presence in global trade has progressively boosted the yuan’s links with those of its emerging-market peers.

` In 2000, the average developing nation sent only 2.2% of its exports to China, while that proportion has now grown to 11.3%, according to data from Societe Generale SA.

` The investment bank says the yuan’s relative stability has traditionally made it most closely correlated with those of its emerging-market peers with strong and credible policy makers such as Mexico, Chile and South Korea.

` Since the US-China trade war in 2018, however, the yuan’s links with emerging markets as a whole have grown stronger, with the average correlation rising to 83% that year, according to SocGen data.

` There’s a risk of course that those very connections may also weigh on emerging-market currencies if the yuan begins to weaken. The major risk of that happening looks to be due to potential policy divergence, with the People’s Bank of China expected to ease monetary policy in 2022, just as central banks from the US, UK and Australia start to tighten.

` The yuan will face a particular challenge as the Federal Reserve beings to raise borrowing costs, a move that is anticipated to lead to a stronger dollar and outflows from emergin

`g markets. Still, China’s currency has so far shown itself to be relatively resilient to monetary policy at home and abroad. China’s economy has become an increasingly important influence on global growth over the past decade, and a vital one for emerging markets, according to JP Morgan Private Bank.

` “Since the financial crisis, we’ve had mini cycles in global emerging markets, largely coincident in China’s property and credit cycle and since the crisis that has been the key driver of the outlook in emerging markets for the most part,” said Alexander Wolf, head of investment strategy, Asia, at JP Morgan Private Bank in Hong Kong.

` The yuan’s relative resilience this year has also played a role in limiting fluctuations across emerging markets, in what has otherwise been a very tumultuous 12 months.

` “The fact that the yuan’s not doing too much I categorise it as a volatility suppressant,” said Paul Mackel, head of global foreign-exchange research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “We believe that stability can last for longer.” — Bloomberg 

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Martin Jacques, former senior fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University, said on Thursday at A ...

Western concept of democracy lacks historical contexts, disrespect cultural difference, conquest by force, colonisation, slavery, genocide, human rights, doctrine of discovery embodied in their laws !


Martin Jacques, former senior fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University, said on Thursday at A Dialogue on Democracy in Beijing that there are two problems in the Western concept of democracy. "The first is the lack of any serious historical context, and the second is the failure to understand and respect cultural difference," he said.
 
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Democracy summit will dodge questions on governance gap between China and US:

There is something more than a little ironic about President Biden's Summit for Democracy this week. The intention is blindingly obvious: to rally the troops in favour of Western-style democracy and draw a line in the sand between "democracy" (ie, the West) and "autocracy" (ie, China and Russia). In this Biden faces two huge problems, which will get little or no airing at the Summit. First, the Western democracies are in serious difficulties. And second, that China, in terms of governance, has been seriously out-performing the West.

The US talks about democracy in the manner of a slick TV advert. It is all good and no bad. It is timeless. It has long reigned and will reign forever. It cannot be improved upon. This, of course, is nonsense. No form of governance has, or will, last indefinitely. There are multiple signs that Western democracy is losing its popularity. Numerous Western polls have indicated growing disillusionment in their political systems.

Ultimately, any form of governance depends upon its ability to deliver. Whatever the fancy words, this is the bottom line. If it fails to deliver, then people will look for alternative forms of governance. Western governance was at its most successful during the long boom between 1945 and the mid-1970s. It delivered rapid economic growth, full employment, generous welfare reforms and prosperity. In the 1959 general election, the British Conservative Prime Minister ran on the slogan "You've never had it so good." He was right. And the Conservatives won big time. Even during the following rather less successful period between 1980 and 2007, Western governance still worked after a fashion. The turning-point was the Western financial crisis in 2008, the worst since 1931.

Ever since then, living standards in the West have struggled to return to even where they were in 2007. All the Western economies have remained on life-support, with zero or near zero interest rates, following the financial crisis. Their economic woes had political consequences, with growing disillusionment in the mainstream political parties and their leaders and, more seriously, in societal elites and governing institutions. The most dramatic case was the United States, the citadel of Western democracy. The reasons for the disaffection go back long before 2008: nearly half of all Americans have experienced static or falling living standards since 1980. Trump gave voice to the anti-establishment anger. His attitude towards democracy is, to put it mildly, unclear, as his covert support for the Insurrection at Capitol Hill last January well illustrates. Biden won the 2020 presidential election, but what will happen in 2024 is anyone's guess. The country is deeply divided and polarised to the point where there are almost two Americas. For the first time since the Civil War, there are serious doubts among Americans as to whether their democracy can survive.

Democracy works in good times but not so well in bad times. Between 1918 and 1939, a large majority of European states lived under various forms of dictatorship for part of, or most of, that period. Democracies were, for the most part, few and far between. The overriding reason was the Great Depression, with falling living standards, huge unemployment, impoverishment, racism, nationalism, and acute political polarisation.

Even if Western-style democracy survives, and it likely will in most Western countries, such are its deep roots, it will enjoy nothing of the elan and prestige it possessed during its heyday in the long boom, or even between 1980 and 2007. The reason is simple. Between 1945 and 2000, the West dominated the world. In 1970 it accounted for two-thirds of global GDP. The United States was by far the dominant country. Now the West accounts for rather less than half of global GDP while China, in terms of size, is on a par with America. We are in the process of transitioning to a post-Western world. Domestically and internationally, Western leaders enjoy much less prestige and authority than they did during the second half of the 20th century. Compare the regard in which Roosevelt, Eisenhower and Kennedy were held with that for George W Bush, Trump and Biden. And the same can be said of the declining respect for the US political system. The allure of democracy has greatly diminished.

The rise of China since 1978 has become a new measure of the performance of the United States and the West. Over this period China has out-performed the West in terms of delivery: the supercharged growth rate, the transformation in living standards, the huge reduction in poverty, the increase in life expectation, the long run social stability and the very high approval ratings. The way in which China has handled the pandemic, with just 4,636 deaths compared with 787,695 deaths in the US, is a powerful endorsement of Chinese governance and a shameful exposure of that in the US. Western democracy is under huge pressure both internally and externally. And the gulf between the relative performance between the US and China is set to grow ever wider.

These are the questions that should be discussed at the Summit for Democracy. But they won't be.
 

By Martin Jacques@martjacques
Martin Jacques was until recently a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. He is a Visiting Professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a Senior Fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. He is the author of When China Rules the World.

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Moral vacuum at the heart of modernity, now embodied in US laws!

  ` ` MAN and nature are running out of time. That’s the core message of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change ...

Moral vacuum at the heart of modernity, now embodied in US laws!

` In short, historically it was the Church that gave the moral blessing for colonisation, slavery and genocide during the Age of Globalisation. The tragedy is that the Doctrine of Discovery is now embodied in US laws. 
 
 MAN and nature are running out of time. That’s the core message of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released this week.


` UN secretary-general António Guterres called the report a “code red for humanity”. “The evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.”

` What can we, individually and collectively, do about it?

` Many animals and human beings cannot survive at high temperatures. Seattle, a temperate climate city, hit 104 degrees Fahrenheit in June, only four degrees below the maximum 108 degrees where humans can’t survive.

` Like the pandemic, the twin effects of climate warming and biodiversity loss are hurting the bottom half of society who are most vulnerable to natural and/or man-made disasters.

` Indeed, indigenous and native people who live closest to nature, comprising 5%-6% of world population scattered in remote areas, are likely to face loss of culture, lives and habitat because all their water, food and livelihoods will be devastated by climate change.

` In essence, we are in an existential situation whereby nature is being destroyed by human excess consumption, which creates pollution and carbon emission, but all this is made possible by monetary creation by bankers and businesses who seem to care more about their profits than the human condition.

` Thus, decisions over climate change, human activities, financialisation and globalisation are essentially moral questions over the power to lead us out of the wilderness of nuclear destruction through war or planetary burning.

` In his monumental “History of Western Philosophy” (1946), British philosopher Bertrand Russell argued that those in power understand that they have twin powers over nature and political power to rule other human beings.

` Traditionally, the limits to such power have been God and truth. But today, religions are also in turmoil on what is their role in finding pathways out of the current mess. Furthermore, FakeNews obscures what is truth.

` The current mess is not unlike the Lost People wandering in the desert waiting for Moses to find the 21st century version of the 10 Commandments. Unfortunately, the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are aspirations and not commandments.

` As economists say, climate change is a market failure, but there is no modern day Moses nor operating manuals to translate SDGs to environmental, social and governance (ESG) projects and programmes for businesses, governments and social institutions.

` In this twin injustices against man and nature, people sense that there is both a moral vacuum in globalised modernity, as well as lack of a shared, practical pathway out of planetary destruction. If secular science or politics cannot help us, is religion the solution?

` Ironically, religion has played a far larger role in the current quandary than meets the eye.

` Two papal bulls empowered the Portuguese and Spanish conquests of new land in the second half of the 15th century. Papal bulls are public decrees, letters patent or charters issued by a Catholic pope.

` The Papal Bull Romanus Pontifex issued by Pope Nicholas V in 1455 gave Portuguese King Alfonso the right to “invade, search out, capture, vanquish and subdue all Saracens and pagans whatsoever, and other enemies of Christ whatsoever placed, and the kingdoms, dukedoms, principalities, dominions, possessions and all movable and immovable goods whatsoever held and possessed by them and to reduce their persons to perpetual slavery... to convert them to his profit... [such assets becoming] justly and lawfully acquired.”

` The Papal Bull Inter Caetera, issued after Christopher Columbus returned from America in 1493, not only reinforced the Spanish right to property and slavery seized or colonised from non-Christian kingdoms or pagan natives, but also established the Doctrine of Discovery.

` This doctrine formed the basis of national and later international laws that gave licence to explorers to claim vacant land (terra nullius) on discovery. Vacant land meant land not populated by Christians, and thus the Christian discoverers and occupiers could have legal title to them, regardless of the rights of the indigenous people.

` In short, historically it was the Church that gave the moral blessing for colonisation, slavery and genocide during the Age of Globalisation. The tragedy is that the Doctrine of Discovery is now embodied in US laws.


` In the historic case of Johnson vs McIntosh (1823), Supreme Court Justice John Marshall ruled: “According to every theory of property, the Indians had no individual rights to land; nor had they any collectively, or in their national capacity; for the lands occupied by each tribe were not used by them in such a manner as to prevent their being appropriated by a people of cultivators. All the proprietary rights of civilised nations on this continent are founded on this principle. The right delivered from discovery and conquest, can rest on no other basis; and all existing titles depend on the fundamental title of the crown by discovery.”

` If humanity still treats nature as a free asset to be mastered, and other human beings to be dominated and disenfranchised because of the Doctrine of Discovery, how can we move forward morally to create human inclusivity and planetary justice?

` Under secular science, the elites that control the media, military, economy, political or social institutions have forgotten that they are not masters of man and nature, but stewards to protect human well being and nature for future generations.

` In this polarised age, we forget that the shamans of the indigenous people carry ancient wisdoms about how to live with nature and each other through traditional values, medicine and shared rituals. The shamans are not seers but healers and carriers of tribal memories and values.

` When modern scientists and technocrats have no solutions to present problems except more speed, scale and scope in the rush to modernity, isn’t it time to listen to traditional wisdoms from those who have living but dying memories of how to live with nature and each other?

` Without moral bearings, no wonder we have no maps out of the current mess.

 

Andrew Sheng | South China Morning PostBy Tan Sri Andrew Sheng (born 1946) is Hong Kong-based Malaysian Chinese banker, academic and commentator. He started his career as an accountant and is now a distinguished fellow of Fung Global Institute, a global think tank based in Hong Kong.[1] He served as chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) before his replacement by Martin Wheatley in

Andrew Sheng comments on global affairs from an Asian perspective. The views expressed here are his own.


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Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Winter Olympics set to create its own legacy







Generating revenue: A visitor walks past a sculpture for the Beijing Winter Olympics. The games are expected to fuel more opportunities for businesses in related fields. — AP

Interest in ice and snow sports tourism is booming


BEIJING: In the countdown to the February start of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games, ice and snow tourism has picked up among Chinese consumers.

The games are also expected to fuel more opportunities for businesses in related fields. With the new snow season beginning in China, enthusiastic skiers and snowboarders have been eager to get back on the slopes.

One drag on the demand for some travel related to winter sports may be the small number of new cases of Covid-19 that have popped up sporadically in some regions.

But that will depend on the pandemic prevention and control situation this winter, industry experts said.

Beijing and Zhangjiakou in Hebei province have established a group of venues to provide services for the Winter Games, including the Beijing-zhangjiakou high-speed railway.

Over the long term, that infrastructure is expected to become additional assets for the country’s tourism based on ice and snow.

The ski venues in Zhangjiakou, about 200 km northwest of Beijing, will host the snow sports events of the Winter Games. In the past few years, the popularity of the ski resorts there has grown, although a few resorts will be closed for the games next year.

A number of landmark Winter Games venues were designed with the idea of continuing to drive tourism after the Olympic and Paralympic Games.

“Those venues are expected to become new hot spots after the games.

“Aside from traditional sports such as ice-skating and skiing, more innovative entertainment is expected to emerge and create new experiences for consumers,” said Cheng Chaogong, chief researcher with the tourism research institute of Suzhou-based online travel agency Tongcheng-elong.

“The improvement of transportation facilities and other infrastructure has further expanded the growth potential of the cultural and tourism sector in Beijing and in surrounding areas.

“Zhangjiakou is set to become a landmark destination for winter tourism, and the winter tourism market in Beijing will also get a boost,” Cheng added.

Previously, most people who went to ski slopes in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province were locals. With major new development in the region aimed at serving skiers, those resorts have been attracting more tourists from other parts of China.

Those tourists aren’t just from North China. People from Shanghai and Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces, for example, have shown a great deal of enthusiasm for the Winter Games and ice and snow tourism.

The potential increase in the number of tourists from southern and eastern China is bound to give a boost to Beijing’s tourism market, according to the Tongcheng-elong institute.

The Winter Games events that tend to draw the greatest public interest include short track speed skating, speed skating, freestyle skiing, snowboarding and curling, experts said.

Ice and snow sports have become increasingly popular, and lots of people also like to participate in fun activities such as skipping rope in the snow, snow bowling and playing soccer in a field of snow. — China Daily/ANN

 
    
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Will it rain or will it shine? Forecasting the weather amid climate change, How extreme weather may lead to food shortages

The Meteorological Department’s weather forecasts are more vital than ever as Malaysia struggles to cope with severe weather events caused by climate change.

Taman Sri Muda in Seksyen 25, Shah Alam, was flooded on Saturday afternoon due to non-stop rain from Friday night. 

 

CLIMATE change is really hitting home this rainy season in Malaysia.

A higher average temperature from a warmer climate means more water is being evaporated from land and sea, which leads to more extreme precipitation. In other words, the warmer it gets in Malaysia, the more rain we’ll get – just as we’re currently experiencing.

But how much more rain are we actually getting?

According to the Malaysian Meteorological

Department – better known as Metmalaysia now – average yearly temperatures between 1981 and 2020 have trended higher at a rate of 0.02ºc every year, which translates to 0.2ºc every decade.

Metmalaysia director-general Muhammad Helmi Abdullah says a rise in 1ºc could translate into a corresponding 7% increase in rainfall. This is according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (released in August this year) and Malaysia’s Third National Communication to the panel.

“There has been an increase in the trend of average yearly temperatures although it’s not very drastic. But it can still have an impact on the weather in our country,” he says.

An increase in rainfall, says Muhammad Helmi, can be linked to more extreme thunderstorms which can lead to more frequent flash floods and landslides as well as water and land spouts, and hail.

He points to the 2006/2007 and 2014 massive floods in Johor and Kelantan respectively as examples of incidents of such extreme rainfalls.

Based on Metmalaysia’s observations, Muhammad Helmi says the highest average yearly temperature recorded in the country was in 2016 at 27.84ºc, which was 0.87ºc above normal.

This is followed by 1998, 2019 and 2020, he says. In fact, based on records between 1951 and last year as provided by Met-malaysia, nine of the 10 hottest years in the country have occurred in the past 20 years since 2000, except for 1998 (see graphics with Metmalaysia stats).

“The maximum highest temperature ever recorded in Malaysia was 40.1ºc in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998,” says Muhammad Helmi.

That year saw one of the most powerful El Ninos in recorded history, during which scientists say air temperature hiked up by 1.5ºc compared with the 0.25ºc usually associated with that global weather phenomenon.

“The rise in temperature can also cause heat waves and haze to become more extreme,” adds Muhammad Helmi.

Malaysians, he says, must realise that natural disasters from the effects of climate change are now unavoidable.

“But with knowledge, planning and early preparation, we can minimise the impact on mortality and property damage.

“Thus, members of the public must be prepared to face any possibility of natural disasters and always get the latest weather update by Metmalaysia in their areas.”

From paper charts to satellite images

With floods and hurricanes increasing, getting the latest weather updates out has become vital – lifesaving, even, when it gives uniformed personnel time to deploy in areas facing disaster. Metmalaysia has had to move with the times over the years to achieve this.

When Muhammad Helmi first joined the country’s Meteorological Department back in the 1980s, predicting the weather was about looking at the charts. Back then, the country didn’t have its own weather forecast models and needed to rely on those produced by other countries to try and predict whether it would be rain or shine the next day.

Muhammad Helmi remembers having to study details of the charts splayed out on tables or pinned up on boards.

“At that time, we had to plot the daily weather by hand,” reminisces the 57-year-old, who was posted to the then Subang International Airport, one of the more important places among his first few postings.

Thankfully, modern technology means predicting the daily weather doesn’t have to be that painstakingly arduous now.

Malaysia now has its own weather forecast models and live satellite images can be displayed on gigantic electronic boards, while staff members work with computer screens and sophisticated seismographs.

When The Star visited Metmalaysia at its headquarters on Jalan Sultan, Petaling Jaya, recently, the images from Japan’s Himawari and China’s Feng Yun satellites were tracking a red dot – a sign of possible inclement weather – across different shades of the blues of the Indian Ocean.

First set up in 1958 as the Malaya Meteorological Service Office at the Simpang Airport in Kuala Lumpur – also known as the Sungai Besi Airbase – the office has undergone various changes as its role expanded.

Originally parked under the Transport Ministry as the Meteorological Service Malaysia in 1965 following Singapore’s departure from the federation, it was shifted to the Science, Technology and Environment Ministry in 1984.

Today, the department’s forecast office sits in an unassuming white building on a site that it has occupied since 1968, from where it keeps an eye out for everything from earthquakes and tsunamis to rain and wind, and even the ultraviolet index and heatwaves during the dry season.

Currently, Metmalaysia has a network of 247 automatic weather stations and 183 manual observation stations to detect data like rainfall, temperature, wind direction and speed, and atmospheric pressure. There are also additional stations to monitor acid deposition, the intensity of surface ultraviolet rays and background particulate matter, surface ozone, and aerosol concentrations.

Despite the advent of technology, though, work hasn’t necessarily become easier for the department, on which much of the country’s agricultural, plantation, aviation and even tourism sectors depend.

Winds of change

During our interview, Muhammad Helmi admits that with climate change, the department’s role has become more onerous and the forecasting work more challenging.

Typically, it’s harder to forecast the weather for a country with a tropical climate like Malaysia than, say, temperate countries like Japan and those in Europe which have four seasons. But it is even more challenging when climate change is wreaking havoc with established weather and wind patterns, much like what is happening with our monsoons.

“We can see a drastic change to our weather, like stronger thunderstorms and more occurrences of phenomena such as water spouts, land spouts and even hail, which used to be rare in the past.

“There’s also been an increase in the number of extreme weather events – an increase in both intensity and frequency,” says Muhammad Helmi.

“This has given rise to new challenges for Metmalaysia because knowledge of such events is currently quite limited.

“The main challenge for us is to determine when and where such high impact or extreme weather events will occur,” he explains.

He adds that the department is still studying the indicators or signs that may lead them to better forecast when and where such extreme weather events are likely to take place.

“An example of such an indicator would be wind patterns. We all know that between August and September this year, the southwest monsoon was weak, a situation known as a monsoon break.

“When a monsoon break happens, the wind blows from various directions and is rather weak, causing many thunderstorms to occur.

“The south-west monsoon was supposed to be a drier period for us. Instead, it was the opposite and we had many thunderstorms that even resulted in flash floods, including what happened in Yan recently,” he explains.

In mid-august, six people died in a landslide and over 1,000 more were affected by severe flash floods following heavy downpours in the district in Kedah.

The rains were so heavy that a water column came gushing down the side of Gunung Jerai while images and video clips of muddied roads, inundated cars, fallen trees and drenched residents went viral on social media.

Too darn hot

While scientists and forecasters agree that global warming is causing the evaporation of more moisture from land and sea, which translates into heavier rainfall, they are still scrambling to better predict extreme weather events.

To better spot indicators that can lead up to these extreme events in the future, Metmalaysia has embarked on a series of measures, including upgrading 60 existing manual observation stations to automatic as well as building new ones, and incorporating extra training for its staff.

Eight new radar stations are slated for completion next year – at Kuala Gula in Perak; Rompin, Temerloh and Cameron Highlands in Pahang; Marang in Terengganu; Kuala Krai in Kelantan; Sibu in Sarawak; and Tawau in Sabah.

“Hopefully, with these new radar stations we will be able to monitor and observe the weather for almost the entirety of Malaysia,” says Muhammad Helmi.

More importantly, the department is in the midst of developing a system capable of forecasting weather a few months in advance or giving projections even up to the year 2100.

This, says Muhammad Helmi, will allow national disaster agencies and water resources management to better plan and take early action in case of floods or droughts.

“The projection of up to 2100 based on the scaled down models of CMIP6 and shared socioeconomic pathways will enable better and more accurate simulations of how our country’s climate will look like in the future,” he says.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CIMP, which is now in phase six, is a framework which allows climate scientists around the world to collaborate and improve their knowledge on climate change. Coupled models are computer-based models of the Earth’s climate in which the atmosphere, oceans, land or ice are “coupled” together to interact in simulations.

Asked if Metmalaysia will consider recruiting the help of climate scientists to better understand and predict extreme events, Muhammad Helmi says it’s still best to ensure capacity building for its own staff.

“Upon acceptance into the service, our staff members have to undergo a year of training before being posted to a meteorological office for another year or even a few years.

“They will have to work at this meteorological office for at least a year so that they will know what the weather in that particular area is like during the different monsoons.

“They know the weather and climate of this country better because they have been in the field for so long,” he says, adding that the department has recently had one of its officers recognised as a subject matter expert under the civil service scheme.

“We have four more officers on the same career pathway,” he adds.

Moving on up

There are also plans to relocate Metmalaysia’s headquarters away from the narrow, busy street it now shares with the Road Transport Department and the Chemistry Department in PJ to a site in Labu near the KL International Airport by 2024 or 2025.

But even that comes with its own set of problems unique to the department, which operates 24/7 for 365 days every year.

The particular nature of forecasting, stresses Muhammad Helmi, means that Metmalaysia can’t afford to shut down its operations in the country for even one minute.

“Earthquakes and weather changes happen all the time. Much of the department’s operations must already be set up at the new location for, say, a month before we can actually move to the new site.

“We are currently holding workshops to determine our needs at the new building,” he says.

Meanwhile, rain or shine, or hail and hurricanes for that matter, Malaysians must keep up with Metmalaysia’s daily forecasts now that unpredictable weather is the norm. 

- The Star Malaysia21 Dec 2021by SIM LEOI LEOI lifestyle@thestar.com.my 

Forecasting the weather amid climate change


— Photos: IZZRAFIQ alias/the star muhammad Helmi explaining a satellite image at metmalaysia headquarters.

 

The maximum highest temperature ever recorded in Malaysia was 40.1ºc in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998,” says Muhammad Helmi

That year saw one of the most powerful El Ninos in recorded history, during which scientists say air temperature hiked up by 1.5ºc compared with the 0.25ºc usually associated with that global weather phenomenon.

“The rise in temperature can also cause heat waves and haze to become more extreme,” adds Muhammad Helmi.

Malaysians, he says, must realise that natural disasters from the effects of climate change are now unavoidable.

“But with knowledge, planning and early preparation, we can minimise the impact on mortality and property damage.

“Thus, members of the public must be prepared to face any possibility of natural disasters and always get the latest weather update by Metmalaysia in their areas.”

From paper charts to satellite images

With floods and hurricanes increasing, getting the latest weather updates out has become vital – lifesaving, even, when it gives uniformed personnel time to deploy in areas facing disaster. Metmalaysia has had to move with the times over the years to achieve this.

When Muhammad Helmi first joined the country’s Meteorological Department back in the 1980s, predicting the weather was about looking at the charts. Back then, the country didn’t have its own weather forecast models and needed to rely on those produced by other countries to try and predict whether it would be rain or shine the next day.

Muhammad Helmi remembers having to study details of the charts splayed out on tables or pinned up on boards.

“At that time, we had to plot the daily weather by hand,” reminisces the 57-year-old, who was posted to the then Subang International Airport, one of the more important places among his first few postings.

Thankfully, modern technology means predicting the daily weather doesn’t have to be that painstakingly arduous now.

Malaysia now has its own weather forecast models and live satellite images can be displayed on gigantic electronic boards, while staff members work with computer screens and sophisticated seismographs.

When The Star visited Metmalaysia at its headquarters on Jalan Sultan, Petaling Jaya, recently, the images from Japan’s Himawari and China’s Feng Yun satellites were tracking a red dot – a sign of possible inclement weather – across different shades of the blues of the Indian Ocean.

First set up in 1958 as the Malaya Meteorological Service Office at the Simpang Airport in Kuala Lumpur – also known as the Sungai Besi Airbase – the office has undergone various changes as its role expanded.

Originally parked under the Transport Ministry as the Meteorological Service Malaysia in 1965 following Singapore’s departure from the federation, it was shifted to the Science, Technology and Environment Ministry in 1984.

Today, the department’s forecast office sits in an unassuming white building on a site that it has occupied since 1968, from where it keeps an eye out for everything from earthquakes and tsunamis to rain and wind, and even the ultraviolet index and heatwaves during the dry season.

Currently, Metmalaysia has a network of 247 automatic weather stations and 183 manual observation stations to detect data like rainfall, temperature, wind direction and speed, and atmospheric pressure. There are also additional stations to monitor acid deposition, the intensity of surface ultraviolet rays and background particulate matter, surface ozone, and aerosol concentrations.

Despite the advent of technology, though, work hasn’t necessarily become easier for the department, on which much of the country’s agricultural, plantation, aviation and even tourism sectors depend.

Winds of change

During our interview, Muhammad Helmi admits that with climate change, the department’s role has become more onerous and the forecasting work more challenging.

Typically, it’s harder to forecast the weather for a country with a tropical climate like Malaysia than, say, temperate countries like Japan and those in Europe which have four seasons. But it is even more challenging when climate change is wreaking havoc with established weather and wind patterns, much like what is happening with our monsoons.

“We can see a drastic change to our weather, like stronger thunderstorms and more occurrences of phenomena such as water spouts, land spouts and even hail, which used to be rare in the past.

“There’s also been an increase in the number of extreme weather events – an increase in both intensity and frequency,” says Muhammad Helmi.

“This has given rise to new challenges for Metmalaysia because knowledge of such events is currently quite limited.

“The main challenge for us is to determine when and where such high impact or extreme weather events will occur,” he explains.

He adds that the department is still studying the indicators or signs that may lead them to better forecast when and where such extreme weather events are likely to take place.

“An example of such an indicator would be wind patterns. We all know that between August and September this year, the southwest monsoon was weak, a situation known as a monsoon break.

“When a monsoon break happens, the wind blows from various directions and is rather weak, causing many thunderstorms to occur.

“The south-west monsoon was supposed to be a drier period for us. Instead, it was the opposite and we had many thunderstorms that even resulted in flash floods, including what happened in Yan recently,” he explains.

In mid-august, six people died in a landslide and over 1,000 more were affected by severe flash floods following heavy downpours in the district in Kedah.

The rains were so heavy that a water column came gushing down the side of Gunung Jerai while images and video clips of muddied roads, inundated cars, fallen trees and drenched residents went viral on social media.

Too darn hot

While scientists and forecasters agree that global warming is causing the evaporation of more moisture from land and sea, which translates into heavier rainfall, they are still scrambling to better predict extreme weather events.

To better spot indicators that can lead up to these extreme events in the future, Metmalaysia has embarked on a series of measures, including upgrading 60 existing manual observation stations to automatic as well as building new See page 3 

 

How extreme weather may lead to food shortages 

        

IN a world with an increasing human population, climate change may have a serious impact on our ability to grow enough food. — Bloomberg abundance at a fresh fruit stall in a London wholesale market – but how long will it last as the climate crisis continues wreaking havoc on global weather and threatening food production?

Research from as far back as 2007 found that around 30% of year-to-year fluctuations in tonnes of crops grown per hectare were due to changes in the climate. It is remarkable that under these circumstances the global agricultural system has managed to remain fairly robust, and that major food shortages have been rare.

On the other hand, food prices in recent decades have become increasingly volatile. While there are many influences on food prices – including crop yield, weather variations, international trade, speculation in food commodity markets, and land management practices – mostly open trading systems have allowed food shortages in some places to be offset by surpluses and increased production elsewhere.

However, now that the world seems to be moving toward more trade barriers at a time when climate change is intensifying, these stabilising effects may start to fail. Prices could

Without fertiliser, us farm yields would have fallen drastically as soil quality has been decreasing. However, poorer parts of the world do not have the resources to compensate for barren land with fertilisers in the same way. —AFP rise sharply, putting pressure on poor countries and on the budgets of poor people in rich countries.

While crop growth per hectare has increased considerably over the last 50 years, recently the rate of this growth has slowed compared with previous decades. Recent research suggests that up to 30% of the expected increase in growth of European crops has been cancelled out by adverse weather.

But it is worrying that the most pronounced changes tend to be in countries such as those in sub-saharan Africa, including South Africa, that are at high risk of climate impacts on food availability and affordability.

This is particularly clear in the case of barley, maize, millet, pulses, rice and wheat. It seems that the countries most at risk of food shortages are also worst affected by rising temperatures. This seems to bear out the finding from the world’s premier climate science advisers, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that the higher average global temperatures and more extreme weather events associated with climate change will reduce the reliability of food production. The latest IPCC report, released in August, also supports this conclusion.

Another change noted by the IPCC is how rising heat and rainfall associated with climate change is increasingly degrading land, making soil less productive. This is due to the loss of soil nutrients and organic matter and has negative effects on crop yields.

In addition, accelerating rises in sea levels will compound these negative impacts by increasing saltwater intrusions and permanently flooding crop land.

Recent modelling of soil loss in wheat and maize fields shows large variations between tropical climate regions and regions with a large proportion of flat and dry land, with losses ranging from less than 1 tonne per hectare in central Asia to 100 tonnes per hectare in South-east Asia.

The strong impact of climate and topography on simulated water erosion is clearly shown in the five largest wheat and maize producing countries: in Brazil, China and India, where a large proportion of cropland is in tropical areas, water erosion is relatively high, while in Russia and the United States annual median values are much lower.

However, historically poor management of lands in Europe and the United States has been largely remedied through the increased use of chemical fertilisers and irrigation, which have been able to offset a massive amount of soil degradation.

For example, one study has shown that, without fertiliser, US yields of corn over the past 100 years would have fallen from around seven to a little over one tonne per hectare due to soil quality decreasing. However, fertiliser has enabled yields to be broadly maintained, although at an annual cost to farmers of over Us$0.5bil (Rm2.1bil).

These results have worrying implications for poorer parts of the world where soil quality is decreasing, but which do not have the resources to compensate for this with fertilisers. And the results become more worrying still if this is exacerbated by climate change.

Many aspects of land management for food production have changed in recent decades, including growing different crops, or the same crops in different places, in response to increased temperatures. The overall result of these changes has been greatly increased food yields in many parts of the world, and land managers may be expected to adapt their strategies for changes in the climate.

But if climate change results in simultaneous failure of major crops such as wheat, maize and soybeans in two or more major breadbasket regions (the areas of the world that produce most food), then the risks of price rises making food too expensive in poorer parts of the world could become acute. – The Conversation

- By PAUL EKINS Paul Ekins is professor of Resources and Environmental Policy at University College London. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

 

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