America vs China: odds narrowing

 

Leaders meet: A file picture showing Trump welcoming Xi to the Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida during the latter’s visit to the US recently. Xi has a growing economy too behind him, whatever the hiccups. Trump only promises one, without any clarity or logic. – AFP

THE contrast could not be greater. While United States president Donald Trump raves and rants – and belts this or that person – China’s president Xi Jinping looks measured and assured as he offers a global future to the world.

Xi is no angel of course, as his political opponents would know, but his system conserves and protects him, as Trump’s would not. If only Trump were the leader in a centrally controlled political order – but even then his temperament would blow it apart.

Leadership, like politics, is the art of managing the possible. Trump does not understand this, and does not know how. Xi does, knows why, and knows how.

He has a growing economy too behind him, whatever the hiccups. Trump only promises one, without any clarity or logic.

His plan to boost the American economy, based primarily on slashing corporate tax from 35 to 15%, is likely to flounder in an American Congress seriously concerned about its causing the fiscal deficit to balloon.

Already Trump has had to climb down from trying to secure funds from Congress for his dreaded border wall with Mexico in order to avoid budgetary shutdown in September.

The stock market has fallen back from the boost to the price of banks and industrial products following his election. Interest now has returned to what might be termed “American ingenuity stocks” such as Google, Apple and Microsoft on Nasdaq – a proxy for much that is great about America, which Trump’s immigration and closed-door policies threaten to destroy.

Meanwhile Xi has been rolling out his “Belt and Road” plans – something he first envisaged at the end of 2013 – for greater world connectivity and development, committing funds from China and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and engaging global financial institutions such as the World Bank.

Malaysia, for instance, will be an actual beneficiary with additional projects thrown in. China is Malaysia’s largest trading partner. But the US has not been a laggard, being Malaysia’s fourth largest trading partner. And indeed the US remains the largest foreign investor in Malaysia, both new investments and total stock.

A staggering statistic not often recognised is that total American investment in Asean is more than its investment in China, Japan and India COMBINED!

The point, however, is that this position is being eroded. Trump’s policies are hastening this process. Abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) means there is no American strategic peaceful challenge to the Chinese economic juggernaut in Asia-Pacific.

Balance is important to afford choice. Absence of choice means serious exposure to risk. Price, quality and after-service standards are affected, not to mention a new geostrategic economic underlining.

Over-dominance by China in the region is a price not only countries in the region will pay, something that most probably is on Trump’s mind. It is a price that America too will sooner or later have to pay.

China’s Belt and Road proposition is not without its challenges, of course. India is deeply suspicious of the connectivity with Pakistan which cuts across India-claimed Azad Kashmir, about 3000km of it.

The link to the Pakistani port of Gwadar, in southwest Baluchistan on the shores of the Arabian Sea, is seen by India as a Chinese presence at the entrance to the Indian Ocean and a hawk eye on the Indian sub-continent. With the Chinese also in Sri Lanka, India is circumspect on China’s Belt and Road initiative.

There have also been commentaries on some uneconomic linkages which extend right across the English Channel.

All these reservations, however, do not take into account the benefit of connectivity to economies, the time it often takes to get those economic benefits and, most of all, the patience, persistence and long view of history of China and its leaders.

One of the most striking things about the Belt and Road map is that America is not there. Of course, Xi Jinping does not preclude America just as much as the US did not say that China was not permanently excluded from the TPP. And of course, in the Old Silk Routes and shipping lanes, the New World – America – had not been discovered.

But in their revival, led by now rising and then ancient China after 150 years of national humiliation to the present time, there is the irony that the last three quarters of a century of America world dominance is on course to be marginalised, if not supplanted, by the old Eurasian world centred in an ancient civilisation.

Trump does not seem to understand history. The art of the deal is purely transactional. Short-tempered and short-term gratification does not a strategy constitute.

So we have leader, system and economic promise distinguishing the two leaders – and the two countries.

Instead of America first, what we are seeing is Trump hurrying America’s decline relative to a rising China.

We are not seeing a world changed from people wanting to be like a kind of American to being people wanting to be a kind of Chinese. Actually, the Chinese people themselves want to be like a kind of American, with all that wealth, influence and power.

What we are seeing is China – not America – leading the way to that desired, if not always desirable, end. It is China that is driving the next phase in the evolution of world economic development.

Under Xi Jinping, China appears to be heroically moving towards an epochal point in its Peaceful Rise. With Donald Trump, America is being led backwards and inwards, with all the problems of its governance now all coming out. It is in grave danger of losing in the peaceful competition.

Not knowing how to play that game – certainly under its current President – there remains the danger of the status quo power lashing out against the rising one.

The Greek historian Thucydides observed: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

A Harvard professor has studied what is now called the Thucydides Trap and found in 12 out of 16 cases in which this occurred in the last 500 years, the outcome was war.

There are many potential flash points against the background of China’s rise – the North Korean Peninsula and the placement of THAAD missiles in the south, the South China Sea – where Trump may temperamentally find cause to lash out. This is the trapdoor he might take the world down because of failure to compete peacefully.

By munir majid - crux The Star

Tan Sri Munir Majid, chairman of Bank Muamalat and visiting senior fellow at LSE Ideas (Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy), is also chairman of CIMB Asean Research Institute.


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China needs strong core leadership: media survey

‘Transitional period demands strong administration’

Chinese people believe that a strong central leadership is indispensable for the rise of the country, and highly anticipate further confirmation of the role of the core leadership by President Xi Jinping during this period of historic significance, according to a poll recently released by a magazine affiliated with the People's Daily.

The survey, conducted by the People's Tribune, a magazine affiliated with the newspaper, through questionnaires, face-to-face and telephone interviews, as well as online polls between April 15 and September 8, interviewed 15,596 people living in cities and rural areas. The survey results were released earlier this month.

The main findings were that a strong central leadership as well as a pioneering figure is especially critical for a rising world power, and that as president and general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Xi, with full leadership qualities, is supported whole-heartedly by a wide range of officials and people.

To the question of why a country in a transitional period needs a strong central leadership, most respondents strongly agreed that it is vital to safeguard a country's sovereignty and national security, putting the approval rate at 4.50, on a 5-point scale from disagree to complete approval, the survey found. This is followed by the number of respondents who think that core leadership is as important to "guide the nation toward a lofty goal" or that it was "particularly important for a populous and multi-ethnic country."

This year, the necessity for strong leadership has been a theme expounded by many media organizations.

The Guangming Daily on October 9 published a commentary by Fan Dezhi, a senior official at the Party History Research Center of the CPC Central Committee, which asserted that "A strong core leadership is needed more than ever before to achieve the great dream of the renewal of the Chinese nation."

To promote the core leadership of the Party, the priority is to "conform with the CPC Central Committee, with General Secretary Xi Jinping as well as with the Party's theories, guidelines, principles and policies," read a commentary in the Qiushi Journal in March, the flagship magazine of the CPC Central Committee.

Social and political stability, which can be realized by a potent government backed by public support, is the prerequisite for a smooth transition and reform of any country, said Zhi Zhenfeng, a legal expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"Both the rise of great Western powers and the rapid development of developing countries needed a strong core leadership and powerful government," Zhuang Deshui, deputy director of the Research Center for Government Integrity-Building at Peking University, told the Global Times.

Zhuang cited the examples of Otto von Bismarck who unified Germany in the 19th century and the strong Japanese government that carried out Meiji Restoration to bring about its modernization and Westernization.

China should unwaveringly uphold the CPC's leadership if it hopes to realize a stable and sustainable development, Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, said in March, adding that everyone should conform to the ideology and actions of the CPC Central Committee with Xi as general secretary.

"Since China faces complicated situations in different areas, coupled with a huge population, only a strong core leadership is able to coordinate the interests of different groups while taking full account of the majority of its nationals," Zhuang noted.

Zhi said a lack of consciousness of "the core" has made a few local officials and Party members fail to follow or strictly implement the policies issued by the CPC Central Committee.

Charismatic leadership

The People's Tribune poll found that the Chinese people are drawn to the charisma of Xi. The survey found that most respondents believe that Xi has leadership qualities, namely "strategic willpower with full confidence," "bravery to tackle problems head-on" and "intelligence to cure both the symptoms and root causes of problems." The list is rounded out by "top-level design with wisdom and philosophy" and "personal charisma to set an example for others."

When asked which trait is essential for a core leadership to give full play in reality, 79.13 percent of those surveyed said a "leader of integrity and ability."

In addition, the poll results showed that people from all walks of life highly anticipate the further confirmation of Xi's role as the core of the leadership.

Without releasing the specific data, the survey found that most respondents believe that officials that lacked "the consciousness of the core" would go astray and lose their sense of responsibility or discipline.

"Only by establishing authority in the CPC Central Committee can the Party and the nation be forceful. In this sense, firmly espousing Xi as the core is a matter of direction, principle and realistic needs," the magazine quoted anonymous officials who participated in the poll.

Therefore, we should further strengthen the consciousness of the core in the Party and across the country, improve intra-Party political life and the leadership system of the Party and the State, and further confirm Xi's core role in the critical rise of China, said the survey report. - Global Times.

Xi as core long affirmed by public opinion

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'Paper cat' Australia will learn its lesson

Around the announcement of the arbitration tribunal over the South China Sea, Australia was one of the most delirious countries. Canberra immediately supported the arbitration result and claimed China "must" abide by it, and also signed a joint declaration with the US and Japan. Australia has inked a free trade agreement with China, its biggest trading partner, which makes its move of disturbing the South China Sea waters surprising to many.


Australia is a unique country with an inglorious history. It was at first an offshore prison of the UK and then became its colony, a source of raw materials, overseas market and land of investment. This country was established through uncivilized means, in a process filled with the tears of the aboriginals.

Even with a scarce population and vast land, Australia has disputes with other countries over territory. It claims nearly 5.9 million square meters of land in the Antarctic, accounting for 42 percent of the continent. In order to back its territorial claims, Australia even brought up the activities of the British in the Antarctic as evidence.

Since The Antarctic Treaty was signed, all territorial claims over the continent were suspended. Canberra then raised another claims to demand the Antarctic continental shelf. It cited Article 298 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to avoid a demand by arbitration by others.

Both historical rights and the exemption of arbitration as ruled in Article 298 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea were denied by the arbitration tribunal. Australia showed blunt double standards as if no one had a memory of what it did and said over the Antarctic.

Australia calls itself a principled country, while its utilitarianism has been sizzling. It lauds Sino-Australian relations when China's economic support is needed, but when it needs to please Washington, it demonstrates willingness of doing anything in a show of allegiance.

Analysts say that besides trying to please the US, it also intends to suppress China so as to gain a bargaining chip for economic interests. China must take revenge and let it know it's wrong. Australia's power means nothing compared to the security of China. If Australia steps into the South China Sea waters, it will be an ideal target for China to warn and strike.

Australia is not even a "paper tiger," it's only a "paper cat" at best. At a time when its former caretaker country the UK is dedicated to developing relations with China, and almost the whole of Europe takes a neutral position, Australia has unexpectedly made itself a pioneer of hurting China's interest with a fiercer attitude than countries directly involved in the South China Sea dispute. But this paper cat won't last. - Global Times

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China-Britain bilateral relations in Golden Era

Putting economics first

Despite Britain’s role as the closest US ally, its leaders have surprised the world by surging forward in relations with a rising China.

FOR centuries, relations between Britain and China have been undulating, rising rather more than declining.

In that time, Britain has been more ­anxious to penetrate Chinese markets and forage for what China has to offer than the other way round.

The Queen and Chinese president Xi Jinping are driven by carriage along The Mall to Buckingham Palace Photograph: POOL/Reuters

The super-gala treatment that President Xi Jinping and Mrs Xi received in London ­during the week was not necessary to prove the point, but it helps. There was Xi, royally seated next to the Queen, in the gold-trimmed horse-drawn royal carriage parading through London and shown on television screens around the world.

The visiting presidential couple also lodged at Buckingham Palace, the Queen’s official residence, during their trip. Clearly, this was no ordinary state visit.

The Queen called the visit “a defining moment”, Prime Minister David Cameron called it “a golden era”, and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne called it “a golden decade” for their bilateral relations.

An array of gilded items were spread among the vast gilt-edged dining chairs for Xi and his host, the Lord Mayor of London, at the second banquet after the Queen’s.

Gold, the auspicious colour in Chinese culture, went well with the red of the carpet and the Chinese flag.

And Britain was only too happy to oblige.

This was Xi’s first state visit, coming a full decade after his predecessor’s, Hu Jintao’s. But British leaders had been somewhat more proactive.

Only a few years ago, hiccups in relations occurred after British officials stumbled over such sensitive issues for China as the Dalai Lama. After the ruffles were smoothed over came the slew of mega business deals.

Britain wanted to ensure those deals were on and Xi’s state visit would seal them, so Osborne was dispatched to Beijing last month. To make doubly sure he made a side trip to Xinjiang, the alleged epicentre of China’s human rights violations, to talk trade rather than human rights.

China critics condemned that move. But it paid off for Britain in Xi’s high-powered four-day visit and all that it represented and contained.

On Tuesday, China’s Central Bank issued its first offshore renminbi bond in London. On the same day, Cameron appointed Chinese tycoon Jack Ma to his business advisory group. The next day, deals were signed amounting to £40bil (RM260bil), generating nearly 4,000 jobs in Britain. And this was only the beginning.

Critics tend to underrate the importance of business success for both Britain and China. They are perhaps the most enduring of the world’s major trading nations, Britain historically and China in the past and the future.

Even before becoming “the workshop of the world”, Britain had embarked on a glo­bal empire that would span centuries. It lost its sparkle after the Second World War and decolonisation.

British interest in East Asia had centred on China, particularly trade with China. Even its presence in Borneo – Brunei, Sabah (British North Borneo) and Sarawak – were only as a staging post for trade with China on sailing ships and steamships.

The British phrase “not even for all the tea in China” is a measure of one’s resistance to temptation. And tea was only one of many traded items from China.

With the colonial period, parts of China were tugged and torn by European, Russian, US and Japanese imperial powers. China fought and lost two “opium wars” and suffered unequal relations with Britain.

Then they agreed on the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997. But even decades before that date, the buzz in Britain was what would happen to Hong Kong after the “handover”.

Hong Kong had long been known as the world’s classic capitalist enclave, while in the 1990s the West still regarded China as a communist state.

Hong Kong was in quiet panic, as celebrities and stars worried what would happen to them and their work under communist rule.

Many contemplating migration purchased homes abroad from Vancouver to Kuala Lumpur. Jackie Chan bought a luxury condominium in Damansara Heights.

At the time, an Englishman from off the streets in central England put that crucial question to me: What would happen after China “takes over” Hong Kong? I replied that Hong Kong would instead take over China in many ways that mattered. Soon after 1997, Deng Xiaoping’s credo of “it’s glorious to be rich” was abundantly clear throughout the land, often excessively so.

In time, anxieties over the handover were soothed, and it ceased to be an international issue. After moving to the United States and working in Hollywood, Chan returned to Hong Kong and even began work in China itself. His trajectory has been instructive and symbolic. So his presence as an invited guest at a reception for Xi in London’s Lancaster House on Wednesday evening said it all.

While London and Beijing are only too happy to see their relations on the upswing again, their critics have been at work. They have called Britain’s grand welcome for Xi fawning and embarrassingly servile.

Western criticism comes from two broad angles: the US and Europe. Both are not without their own self-interests.

In the European Union, Germany has been an early and the most extensive investor in China. Then earlier this year, Britain stole a march on all other Western countries by signing up as an early co-founding member of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). After that, other US allies joined in: several EU countries including Germany, as well as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The US, which tried hard to stop the trend, had only Japan and Canada as recalcitrant holdouts for company.

Many Western and pro-Western countries are happy enough to do business with China in the lead, in the process helping China grow. This is despite strategic thinkers knowing that the AIIB is also a means for extending China’s reach through Central Asia and Russia to the West.

This takes the form of the infrastructure-­heavy Maritime Silk Road and the One Belt, One Road projects offering connectivity between East Asia and Europe. They possess both economic and strategic advantages.

US critics of Britain’s close partnership with China have something of an identity crisis. They have a long list of complaints against Beijing, yet they cannot stop their own corporations doing increasing business with China.

Worse still, the glittering welcome accorded to President and Mrs Xi in London compares too favourably with the one in Washington just weeks before.

Beyond some formal diplomatic niceties, President Obama reportedly threatened to impose sanctions on China. He also remains committed to the largely military “rebalancing” in China’s backyard, while keeping China at bay with the Trans-Pacific Partnership proposal dividing East Asia.

Whether the British or US approach to working with China is better, and for whom, also depends much on which is more enduring. Britain had presided over a global empire for centuries. China, a global superpower before, has millennia of experience to draw on.

Both countries share the approach of making trade their primary purpose, with any political or military posture being secondary to protect those economic interests.

The US in contrast opts for a forward military posture abroad, with any economic interest secondary by comparison. And despite Pax Americana being only 70 years old, it is already showing signs of wear.

By Bunn Nagara, who is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia - The Star

Open, inclusive partnership exemplary for development

China's President Xi Jinping and Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron attend a joint press conference in 10 Downing Street, in central London, Britain, Oct 21, 2015.[Photo/Agencies]

President Xi Jinping's pledge that China and the United Kingdom will build a "global comprehensive strategic partnership" in the 21st century will bring China-UK relations to a new level and endow their ties with a significance that goes beyond the bilateral scope.

In his talks with British Prime Minister David Cameron on Wednesday, Xi described the upgraded China-UK partnership as opening up a golden era for an enduring, inclusive and win-win relationship that will enable the two sides to jointly create an even brighter future for their relationship.

The noticeable improvement in China-UK ties has been the result of the strong political will from both sides to transcend their differences and shore up mutual respect, reciprocal cooperation and mutual learning.

During Xi's ongoing visit to the UK, the two sides have signed a number of intergovernmental and business deals worth about 40 billion pounds ($62 billion), including an eye-catching agreement that means China will partly finance a UK nuclear plant.

This nuclear project will be China's first in the West, and according to Cameron, it will create thousands of jobs in the UK and provide reliable, affordable energy to nearly 6 million homes when operational.

Such fruitful results show China and the UK are substantiating their cooperation with concrete deals. And as Cameron has said, a strong economic relationship can withstand frank disagreements on some other issues.

With the UK pledging to be China's best partner in the West and China looking to build a golden decade with the UK, the two sides have set a good example in developing ties between a major developing country and a major Western power.

Xi has stressed the open and inclusive nature of the China-UK comprehensive strategic partnership, which means the stronger bond between Beijing and London does not target any existing alliance or partnership the two have forged with other countries.

Under the principle of voluntarism, the partnership can be expanded to include other partners so as to bring benefits to more countries.

The quick reconciliation and warming of bilateral ties would not have been possible if the two sides had not deepened their mutual understanding, built mutual trust and committed to reciprocal and meaningful interaction.

We have every reason to believe China and the UK will continue to build on the current good momentum in their relations, which will not only cater to their interests but also contribute to the common prosperity of the entire world. - China Daily

Xi trip success narrows divide with West

• 
  Dialogue 10/24/2015 President Xi visits UK

In the 1950s, China's stated aim was to surpass the industrial achievements of the UK, which however failed. Decades later, the UK welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping with pomp and pageantry and announced the two countries were entering a "golden age." China has roughly overtaken the UK in gross GDP, although the living standards of the Chinese still lag far behind the British.

During Xi's stay, China and Britain signed contracts worth 40 billion pounds ($61.62 billion). London will become the top offshore yuan center apart from Hong Kong. The UK also adopted measures to relax visa rules for Chinese tourists. These combined give people more faith in the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the UK.



The embrace of China and the UK with open arms primarily proves that the West's economic alliance designed to counter China does not exist or has been overthrown. Economically, the West has more noncompliance than consent across the board to challenge China. Militarily, the West has NATO at the core, but inside it is still not united enough to pressure China. China's military pressure mainly comes from the US-Japan alliance, which is trying to involve smaller countries around China to enhance the deterrence. As China's economic development has bolstered its military might, it has increasing confidence in safeguarding the country's security.

The UK seems to have distanced itself from the Western group that may threaten China and explicitly wants to befriend us. As an important member of the Western world, the UK's decision to usher its ties with China into a "golden age" has symbolic significance.

But when it comes to ideology, the old divide comes up again between China and the West. Over political and values conflicts, countries like the UK, Germany and France, which endeavor to advance their bonds with China, return to the Western formation.

The external ideological pressure is one of the thorniest issues for China currently, and has huge influence on China's domestic values debate.

Common values have been the prominent bond in the West after WWII, but it is definitely not omnipotent. The divergence on values is the biggest difference between China and the West, which requires mutual respect and will to accept. We often feel the West is arrogant and aggressive in terms of ideology, which may partly come from a sense of insecurity due to internal divergences.

The UK mirrors our own changes and informs us that the times when the outside world united to counter China have ended or never existed. But there is still a long road before disputes on ideological issues between China and the West can be solved. Yet we have more achievements and hopes in this regard than difficulties and uncertainties. Compared with the huge pressure from the West in the past, we have gone so far and clearly know our future path. - Global Times

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Sino-UK ties herald golden time with West

Buckingham Palace prepares for Xi Jinping visit President Xi Jinping's visit will also receive a warm welcome from the British...

Sino-UK ties herald golden time with West

• Buckingham Palace prepares for Xi Jinping visit

  

  President Xi Jinping's visit will also receive a warm welcome from the British Monarchy. Queen Elizabeth the second, who has met with some of the most famous leaders in recent history, is expected to greet President Xi at Buckingham Palace.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the UK is drawing increasing attention in the UK and in the rest of Europe. British Prime Minister David Cameron said both countries have entered a "golden time" in their ties, a high-profile exhibition of Britain's willingness to be China's "best partner in the West."



Cameron's meeting with the Dalai Lama in 2012 was a turning point in Sino-UK relations. For 18 months, Beijing gave London the cold shoulder, while at the same time developing cordial relationships with Germany and France. The low ebb in bilateral ties happened when Europe was deeply troubled. Although China had struggled with Germany and France over the same problem in 2007 and 2008, by 2012, China was much stronger and was deemed more influential. Now, China has become more attractive to Europe than ever, and that has served to transform the foundation of China-EU relations.

The UK has shown its adept diplomatic skills while re-calibrating its relationship with China. It was the first European nation to announce that it had applied to join the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, an international financial institution proposed by China. This decision thawed the previous discord. Since then, the UK has committed itself to turning London into the biggest offshore yuan center other than Hong Kong. Cameron has received Ren Zhengfei, president of Huawei, one of China's biggest telecommunications companies. He also invited Chinese companies to invest in a new nuclear power station project. Such actions have set examples in Europe.

As an old empire, the UK has declined, but its foundation is solid. With a special relationship with the US, London knows how to communicate with Washington over China issues.

London making a friendly gesture to China shows that Western countries are trying to redress their deep-rooted political prejudices and explore more potential to develop relations with China.

To a large extent, London's friendliness toward China stems from the pursuit of more benefits, but it shows that the spillover of China's development in many respects has become an irresistible attraction. Nothing can guarantee that country-to-country relations will develop on a certain course without having to worry about derailment. So far, historical experience has shown us that the bond of interests is one of the most reliable mechanisms that can maintain a reciprocal bilateral relationship.

China and the UK need each other. As the US is becoming weaker in exporting interests to Europe, China is providing more opportunities to the UK, while China also needs a Western country to set an example for a new China-West relationship.

It must be noted that political and ideological misunderstandings will remain a challenge for both sides. How to deal with them is a long-term issue.- Global Times

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China-U.S. annual dialogue opens, President Xi gives speech

The sixth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue has opened here in Beijing. The two-day ...

The sixth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the fifth China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchange are being held in Beijing these two days. At a time when this bilateral relationship remains subtle and both have speculated about each other's strategic outlook, such high-level dialogue offers a chance for them to listen to their counterparts to ease anxieties brought by problems between them.

The strategists and public opinion in both countries have made thorough analyses of bilateral ties, yet they still fail to offer grounded conclusions. The fundamental reason is that in the history of international politics, such a big power relationship has never existed before.

The Chinese leadership envisioned the notion of a new type of great power relations, which the US leadership has accepted. The positive attitude of both has injected hope to the 21st century.

There will be more friction between the two. There will be twists and turns as China rises and the US tries to maintain its hegemony. Both can easily highlight a concrete problem, while high-level dialogue is needed to ease the speculation in both societies.

China's rise seems to be the most uncertain factor for the Sino-US relationship and the political pattern of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century. A comprehensive understanding of China's rise will help lay the foundation of this bilateral relationship.

The driving forces of China's rise come from the demand of the Chinese people. No one can stop this process. China and the US should build up an open system that can accommodate China's rise and soften the impact of China's rise on the politics of Asia-Pacific and other regions.

Many view the territorial disputes between China and its neighboring countries as its ambition for expansion. The US should be able to see that China has no intention to create new geopolitical patterns through these disputes, nor would it make use of the conflicts to expand its strategic space.

Even when China has no intention, its impact has been felt. Meanwhile, US support for Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam has caused some effect on China's neighbors. These two factors should not interact with each other to intensify mutual strategic mistrust.

The significance of the heart-to-heart dialogue is the same as that of establishing a crisis-management mechanism. It may take a while before the two realize great power relations, but China-US relations are fundamentally different from ties between the US and the former Soviet Union.

There will be continuing pessimistic comments from the public in both countries. It is vital that both governments remain determined. It will be a significant political achievement if the two develop a relationship that is different from the one under the Yalta system during the last century.

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-7-9

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US and China tussle for trade dominance at Apec summit

United States stepped up efforts to reinforce its economic might in the Asia-Pacific at a regional leaders’ summit in Indonesia on Tuesday, amid warnings from an increasingly bold China.


US Secretary of State John Kerry. Photo: EPA 

The two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) event at a five-star resort on the tropical island of Bali is aimed at breaking down trade barriers among all 21 member economies, but rival agendas by the world powers have overshadowed the talks.

Filling in for US President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry has lobbied for the quick signing of a mega free trade pact grouping 12 Apec nations but not China and summit host Indonesia.

“We need modern rules for a changing road, rules that keep pace with the speed of today’s markets,” Kerry said in a speech on the sidelines of the summit on Monday that was in large part a hard-sell for the planned Trans-Pacific Partnership.

China's President Xi Jinping, Photo: AFP

Kerry was set to meet the leaders of the 11 other nations involved in the TPP on Tuesday afternoon in a bid to hit an against-the-odds deadline set by Obama for a deal by the end of this year.

The United States has championed the TPP as setting “gold standards” to deal with complex changes to the 21st-century economy, such as how to police cloud computing and patents.

But China and even some developing nations included in the TPP have expressed concern that it will set down trade rules primarily benefiting the richest countries and most powerful firms.

“China will commit itself to building a trans-Pacific regional cooperation framework that benefits all parties,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a speech following Kerry at the Apec business forum

“We should enhance coordination... deepen regional integration and avoid the spaghetti bowl effect so as to build closer partnerships across the Pacific.

China will commit itself to building a trans-Pacific regional cooperation framework that benefits all parties -China's President Xi Jinping

Xi’s comments were interpreted in China’s state-run media on Tuesday as direct criticism of the TPP.

“The Trans-Pacific Partnership, featuring confidential talks and the highest free trade standard beyond mere lower tariffs, is widely considered a new step for the US to dominate the economy in the Asia-Pacific region,” the China Daily newspaper said in a front-page report on Xi’s speech.

Indonesia also signalled its irritation at the huge focus on TPP at the Apec summit, shunting the planned meeting on Tuesday afternoon of the 12 nations involved to a hotel outside the official venue.

“We mind actually, and one of the reasons, at the very least, is we don’t want any coverage that will overshadow APEC,” an Indonesian government official said, when asked about why the TPP countries had been told to meet outside.

Meanwhile, China and Indonesia are involved in plans for a rival free trade pact involving 16 countries around the region and being spearheaded by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Negotiations for that pact are expected to be discussed at an East Asia Summit in Brunei this week.

One of the biggest issues at Apec has been the absence of Obama, who had to cancel an Asian tour that would have also taken him to Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines because of the week-long US government shutdown.

Obama and the Democrats are engaged in a potentially catastrophic battle of nerves with the Republicans over the president’s health care law, which could lead to an unprecedented US default.

Obama’s decision not to come to Asia has reinforced sentiments that his high-profile diplomatic, economic and military focus on the region, known as the “pivot”, is in tatters.

Kerry has been forced at Apec to repeatedly insist that the Asia-Pacific remains a top priority.

“I want to emphasise that there is nothing that will shake the commitment of the rebalance to Asia that President Obama is leading,” Kerry told the business forum on Monday.

Meanwhile, Xi filled the Obama vacuum with high-profile state visits to Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur ahead of Apec.

He then used the Apec business event to outline a Chinese vision for the region of a “united and prosperous” family.

Sources: AFP

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A new dawn in world economy?

Review by Thomas Lee tomlee48@gmail.com

A new dawn in world economy?
Title: Uprising
Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy?
Author: George Magnus
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd

At first glance, the title Uprising gives one the impression that the book is concerned about rebellion or revolt, or matters related to violent political conflicts involving armed resistance.

However, after reading its small-print sub-title Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy? and a quick browsing through its content, one realises that the book is actually an in-depth analysis of the contemporary global economy, in particular the influence and impact of the new emerging markets with the focus on the shift of economic power from the West to the Orient, especially China.

Its author George Magnus is a prominent investment banker and global economist, who has been acknowledged as the key analyst who had predicted the recent world financial crisis in early 2007. He is a senior economic adviser at the UBS Investment Bank in London, and had held similar posts at the Union Bank of Switzerland and SG Warnurg.

Magnus is also a popular and respected public commentator on world financial matters, contributing frequently to the Financial Times of London, the BBC, Bloomberg, the CNBC and several other prominent economic, business or financial publications. He is also author of the 2008 definitive international economic analytical book The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World. 

Hence, Uprising is not simply any ordinary run-of-the-mill book, but a major authoritative book which anyone concerned with the contemporary global economy and the direction it is moving should read and reflect deeply on. What Magnus said in his book should not be treated lightly as he is no false prophet when it comes to matters of international economic wheeling and dealing.



Magnus begins his book with an incisive narration and analysis of the world events building up from the first year of the new 21st century to the current global economic scenario. He gives a sharp observation, and penetrating and critical analysis of events in China, including the implications of a world sporting event like the August 2008 China Olympic Games, which took place sandwiched between the May 2008 Great Sichuan Earthquake which claimed nearly 70,000 lives, and the October 2008 world financial earthquake following the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which, as Magnus puts it, “brought the world economy to the brink of an economic Armageddon, unrivalled since the Great Depression of the 1930s”.

In his 358-page book, Magnus sets out to explain the impact and effect that the 2008 financial crisis has on the major emerging markets, and why the rich developed Western nations is going all out to challenge and curb their increasing threats, especially of China and India, in the global economic order.

A major theme of the book as Magnus puts it, is that “the West’s financial crisis sparked a major change in the structure of the world economy, and that China’s capacity to also embark on structural change voluntarily is weak, unless it is specially geared to the long-run interests of the Communist Party’s grip on power”.

This authoritative definitive book examines the two major economic powers and leading emerging markets in Asia – China and India – and several minor but significant markets in Eastern Europe, and also Turkey.
Currently, the emerging markets are headline news. And the question uppermost in the minds of political and business leaders in all these emerging markets of the world is what will happen following the 2008 world financial crisis and what does the future mean and hold for global finance, trade and commerce.

Magnus provides significant suggestions and pragmatic guidelines to resolve this global economic dilemma.

He presents a persuasive and cogent perspective on China and the other emerging markets from a post-financial crisis situation, urging those with economic potency to seriously reconsider their attitude and approach to the emerging new world economic order. A fundamental matter to critically and analytically examine is the question of what economic reforms are needed to meet the new global goals.

Magnus should most be appreciated for offering a convincing critical analysis of what the future global economy may look like – not merely for the emerging markets, but for policy-makers, businesses, financiers, investors, economists, and even ordinary citizens concerned with the economic well-being of their nation and the world.

Magnus deals with matters such as climate change, commodity prices, and world demographic trends, and gives valuable insights into the implications of these issues for the world economy.

One significant question Magnus deals with is whether the 21st century belongs to China. The Communist nation operating on enterprise capitalism for the last 30 years is now all set to regain what Magnus has pointed out in his book as its premier economic power it held from ancient times till the early part of the 19th century.

For all intent and purpose, China is set for an economic renaissance. It will soon regain its ancient mantle as a world economic power it lost when its reticent conservative bureaucracy forced it into international relation isolation while Europe moved economically forward with an industrial revolution in the 19th century.

The Uprising by the plucky economic seer Magnus is certainly essential reading for anyone who wants to understand and care about the future of the global economy.

Understanding the context, content and challenges of the world economic scenario during the first decade of this century is certainly vital for those responsible for making policies, plans and programmes to chart the direction, set the trend, and strive for vigorous economic success in their nations.

Thanks to Magnus, his book has provided the seeds for the planting, growing and harvesting of serious objective thinking, critical pragmatic evaluation, constructive practical ideas, and effective and efficient creative implementation of economic policies, plans and programmes.

Understanding The Rise Of China [VIDEO]

http://www.dump.com/2011/01/25/understanding-the-rise-of-china-video/