The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world, THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

Is the Dollar the key to US hegemony?

 

Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times

The US Federal Reserve will hold a new policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision on interest rate growth being the limelight. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will deliver at least another 75-basis-point interest rate hike to tame inflation. This might further increase the value of the US dollar against other currencies, which is at its 20-year high. Driven by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, the US dollar is viewed as "experiencing a once-in-a-generation rally." For many countries in the world, this might be the beginning of another nightmare.

The meeting will witness the fifth time that the Fed will raise interest rates. The direct reason is to ease the high pressure of inflation in the US. But if people dig the root cause, this is an inevitable consequence of US' blind and unlimited money printing to temporarily maintain "prosperity." In other words, in the face of the deep-seated problems exposed by the 2008 financial crisis, Washington has been powerless, and unwilling as well, to solve them. Instead, it was extremely short-sighted to cover up the crisis and curry favor with the Wall Street, while taking advantage of the hegemony of the US dollar to quietly treat the crisis like dumping wastewater - draining it to the world.

A super strong US dollar and the fall of other currencies will, to a certain extent, ease the scorching inflation in the US economy, but the world will have to pay for it, which is often referred to as "when the US is sick, the world has to takes pill." The ensuing severe inflation, economic recession and other problems have already appeared on a large scale in many countries. Thirty-six currencies around the world have lost at least one-tenth of their value this year, with the Sri Lankan rupee and Argentine peso falling by more than 20 percent, since the dollar strengthened.

This has not only worsened the already weak economies of Europe and Japan, but also forced a large number of developing countries to swallow the bitter pills of the economic recession caused by imported inflation. Countless families were impoverished overnight. This is a very abnormal situation that is not supposed to occur, but it is the cruel truth behind the US "containment of inflation."

In fact, since the end of World War II, the US has used dollar hegemony to carry out "financial looting" or "export crises" against other countries several times. As a widely popular phrase in the West goes, the US enjoys the exorbitant privileges created by the dollar and the deficit without tears, and used the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations.

Each round of dollar appreciation in the past decades has been accompanied by extremely bad memories: The Latin American debt crisis broke out in the first round, Japan suffered from the "lost two decades" during the second round and the Asian financial crisis took place during the third. Particularly in the Asian crisis, which is still fresh in many people's memories, more than 100 million middle-class people in Asia fell into poverty, according to the World Bank estimation. The strengthened dollar, time and again, cuts the world like a sharp blade.

Therefore, while the political elites in Washington boast of the "myth of the American system" and take credit for "alleviating the crisis," thousands of poor families around the world are being trampled by them. They are not unaware of this, but still collectively choose to be indifferent and arrogant, as if this is the privilege that the "hegemon" should enjoy. As US former treasury secretary John Connally put it in the 1970s, "The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem." Today, the dollar is once again the world's problem. In a sense, it's hard to believe that the "prosperity" of the US is clean and moral.

However, the crisis cannot be covered up forever. Washington keeps laying mines but never removes them, which will eventually explode the US itself. The incompetence of US financial policymakers has been exposed by the consecutive interest rate hikes that have contributed to the abnormal appreciation of the US dollar with the purpose of defusing the severe inflation.

For the US itself, what will rise accordingly are the cost of corporate financing, the pressure on residents to repay their loans, and the price of export production among others. Meanwhile, the credibility that the US dollar has as a global currency is being continuously exhausted by the US "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy. Now the anxiety and insecurity brought by the US dollar to the world has heralded the beginning of the decline of its hegemony - regarding Washington's insatiable exploitation, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and other regions have explored the path of "de-dollarization," leading to the inevitable diversification of the international monetary system.

The best way to restrain the rampaging hegemony is to practice true multilateralism. Whether it was the Asian financial crisis in 1997 or the global financial crisis in 2008, the world seemed to have stumbled more than once by the same stone, which, however, is not that firm anymore. The instability and fragility of international financial markets have once again become prominent. It is precisely at such times that the international community should be more determined to cooperate and build a reliable, systemic and long-term multilateral international financial system. This cannot wait. 

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 THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

World Affairs – Non-Partisan and Objective

 

Why the US Needs to Destroy Russia and China — The Need for Bretton Woods III

The United States of America is in big trouble, short term and long term. In 2022, the stock market is crashing, bond market is down the most in 40 years, housing bubble is bursting, inflation is skyrocketing, debt is exploding, and GDP is shrinking. These are not temporary crises. Instead, they reveal systemic flaws in the American economy that is propped up by a rigged global financial system. 

However, that fraudulent system is starting to crumble and the primacy of US dollar is in serious trouble, thanks to an emerging multipolar world. (Don't believe the nonsense that the US can keep printing infinite amount of dollars).

US central government’s debt is now $31 trillion, amounting to 130% of GDP. Soon, the interest payments on the debt alone will be $1 trillion per year. Of course, the principal amount will never get paid off. Then, add in the unfunded liabilities — like future payments for social security — the debt is staggering over $200 trillion.

Furthermore, there are not enough buyers of US treasuries. Thus, since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve Bank has been creating trillions of dollars literally out of thin air and buying the US debt (treasury bonds). This is voodoo economics and not sustainable.

What’s the end game? The US needs to default on its debt and start new. The goal is to declare bankruptcy and … yet remain the #1 country. This will be the “Bretton Woods III” agreement.

The US needs to default on its debt and start new. Declare bankruptcy and yet remain the #1 country. This will be the "Bretton Woods III" agreement.

Sounds ridiculous? Well, it's possible only if all the other countries are weak and nobody is strong enough to challenge the US.

This is why the US must not only crush Russia and China — its two biggest geopolitical rivals, but also weaken Europe. This paves the way for the US to establish a new global order which is similarly rigged and just as deceitful and corrupt — in order to prolong the American Century.

Dollar Hegemony

America's extraordinary power comes from the power of US dollar, which is the established global currency for trade. This also means that countries around the world have to accumulate US dollars in their foreign exchange reserves. But the US has been abusing its power by weaponizing the dollar through sanctions and confiscations of hard-earned reserves.

No wonder that China, Russia and others are seeking ways to circumvent the dollar in trade. Since 1999, the share of US dollar assets in central bank reserves has dropped by 12 percentage points—from 71 percent. Hence the share of US dollar in global reserves is now only 59%. When that number falls below 50%, the tectonic shifts in global finance will become more apparent to Americans.

To fully grasp the nature of the current world order, let's see how the US established the dollar as the world currency, carried about the biggest gold heist in human history, then defaulted on its obligations, but revived the moribund dollar with a clever deal. That's the story of Bretton Woods I and II.

Bretton Woods I - Gold-backed Dollar

WW2 was a wonderful thing for the US. First, it took the US economy out of the Great Depression. The US played the role of arms supplier and gladly watched European empires destroy themselves. Even before the war was over, the US brought in all the allies to Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and said, "When the war is over, you will all be weak and broke. I will be the new empire and my dollar will be the global currency. And it will be as good as gold -- a guaranteed rate of $35 per ounce of gold."

This meant that if you have $35, you can go to a bank and get an ounce of gold!

The world agreed. When the war was over, everyone bought US dollar with gold and used it for trade. Huge amounts of gold were also physically transferred from Japan, Germany and other parts of the world into the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

This system worked until 1971 when the US suddenly declared that, "Oops, the dollar is not backed by gold anymore. If you have US dollars, they are just pieces of paper now. You cannot get your gold back!" People called it the "Nixon Shock."

1970s - When Fiat Dollar almost died

This was also the biggest gold theft in human history. But what could the world do? America had nuclear weapons and the mightiest military.

Of course, the switch to a fiat currency caused havoc. The value of US dollar fell precipitously and inflation skyrocketed. Oil price quickly doubled and grew five-fold by 1979. The oil shock and gas shortage rocked American politics.

 

The US economy was in deep trouble. That's when the US elites came up with a clever idea to rescue the dollar and restore its primacy.

Bretton Woods II - The Birth of Petrodollar

How to make the dollar relevant? Hmm...What if everyone needed US dollar to buy something essential?

Like ... OIL. Brilliant!

This was the birth of Petrodollar.

Basically, the U.S. used Saudi Arabia’s oil to save the dollar. That is, Saudi Arabia (and other smaller producers) would sell oil only for US dollars. And to make sure that the Saudis don't get too powerful, they will be forced to recycle most of their profits back into the US economy. It was also a protection racket, which meant the US military would occupy Saudi Arabia and protect it from enemies. 

 Saudi King Faisal with Kissinger. Birth of Petrodollar

But why would the Saudis agree to this? Because the U.S. make Saudi Arabia the new king of oil and the most influential Middle East power ... after crippling Iran.

Win-win for the US.

Thus, the U.S. armed and funded Saddam Hussein of Iraq to wage a decade-long war on Iran. US provided arms/intelligence. Germany and France provided deadly chemical/biological weapons to Iraq. Here’s Donald Rumsfeld with Saddam in 1983. 

Of course, the same Rumsfeld would bomb Iraq and kill Saddam twenty years later.

Thus, the Petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia could be called as Bretton Woods II. It extended the life of the American Empire by a few more decades.

Bretton Woods III -

For the last four decades, countries around the world have been foolishly working hard for US dollars, buying US treasuries, and funding the American Empire. But within the next decade, those U.S. treasury bills and bonds might be worthless. Deja vu all over again.

The U.S. needs Bretton Woods, Version 3. Somehow, the world needs to write off all American debt and start the racket anew. But … with America still as #1 How the hell could this happen?? This is how:

If the world is full of weak countries, they will accept the new rules -- just like they did in 1944 and 1974. Imagine a world where Russia and Europe destroy one another. Imagine a world where Japan and India attack China … and they all get destroyed. A world on fire, destroyed by passion and bombs.

In that world, America will come in as the savior at the last moment, stop the war, and make everyone a happy vassal.

Great Reset. Bretton Woods III. New World Order. Call it what you will.

Conclusion

The wheels are in motion. After eight years of provocation, the US successfully forced Russia to invade Ukraine. And the US also brilliantly pulled Europe into the mess. Europe's economy is being crushed and de-industrialized.

As for China, the U.S. is trying its best to start a war using Taiwan as the pawn. Japan is being asked to re-militarize and procure 1000 long-range missiles. The US needs a few more years to manufacture this mother of all wars. A lot depends on India, since Japan wouldn't want to be the only Asian country to attack China.

Four years ago, I predicted all this in the article "The Most Dangerous Decade." However, much of the world is still happy to be mesmerized and led into the slaughterhouse.

Only Russia and China can change how this story evolves. If Putin can quickly and decisively win the Ukraine war, he can force a peace settlement with Europe.

And China needs to accelerate the internationalization of Yuan. There is no de-dollarization without a robust alternative financial system. China also needs to muster the greatest diplomatic efforts to make peace with Japan and India, the two most potent adversaries and puppets of the US.

In the most optimistic scenario, the Global South or the people of the developing nations can bring into fruition a new fair world without catastrophic wars or financial devastation. As Sun Tzu said, "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

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A matter of Cost: Stretching their ringgit further

 

Janet Chia, 48, watering the lettuce plants at her house compound in Seri Kembangan, Selangor. Chia and her husband have planted several vegetables in their garden for their own consumption. 

Rise in prices pushes Ipoh folk to think of alternative ways to live within means

The hike in prices of essential items such as chicken, eggs, flour and vegetables has compelled ordinary folk in Perak to plant their own greens and herbs. Some are trimming their grocery bill or dining out less frequently by cooking simpler meals at home to better manage their household expenses. LIKE the rest of the nation, consumers in Ipoh, Perak, are feeling the pinch from the rise in the prices of goods, especially essential items.

The increase in prices is taking a toll on the people, leaving those in the low and middle-income groups struggling to cope.

Retiree Joginder Kaur Jessy, 67, said she had started to grow some vegetables in her house compound to help cut cost of buying greens.

She said eating out had always been expensive but cooking at home was no longer cheap either.

Expressing dismay at the rise in the prices of oil, vegetables, fish, chicken and eggs, she felt it necessary to cut back on some items as she was a pensioner.

“I have to be more prudent now and use less ingredients when cooking.

“I will probably have to look for a cheaper type of fish, eat less chicken, try to cook smaller portions, avoid wastage and make leftover food stretch over a few days,” she said.

Among the vegetables and fruits that Joginder has planted are chillies, okra, brinjal, lemon, mint, banana and papaya.

“Most of the prices of vegetables, fish and other seafood have tripled.

“Some fishmongers and vegetable and fruit sellers have taken this opportunity to raise the prices even further,” she added.

Holly Lai, 60, a marketing manager, said that at times cooking at home was more expensive than eating out.

Lai, who is single, said she used to cook at home, but after the increase in prices, she discovered it was not worth the effort.

Preferring fish and eggs in her diet, she noted that the prices of these items were not affordable.

“For me to cook a meal consisting of fish, rice and a vegetable, it will easily cost about RM15, not including the spices and other ingredients.

“In comparison, I can get a meal consisting of three dishes and rice for between RM5 and RM7 from a stall.

“During these trying times, I must choose wisely and cannot simply eat at expensive restaurants,” she added.

Teacher Ambiga Pillay, 60, said the government should step in to counter the increase in prices. 

 

Ambiga says she cuts down on daily costs by cooking more often at home.

Many including herself, she said, were saving on daily living costs by cooking more often as well as cutting back on luxury expenditures and travel.

“I always cook at home although it is a challenge as I work full-time.

“People think that grocery prices are lower in Ipoh compared to Kuala Lumpur, but it is not true.

“Prices here are higher because there is less variety compared to other places,” she said, adding that some also looked for cheaper alternatives to save money.

“I plan my finances based on priority as well,” said Ambiga.

Family Wellness Club president P. Mangaleswary also noted that people had been complaining about the rising prices of essential items.

She said some members of the non-governmental organisation (NGO) complained about how prices of vegetables had gone up in wet markets.

Members were saying that 1kg of tomatoes now cost RM9 when it used to be about RM5 before, she told StarMetro.

“Just last weekend at a get-together, some said they were feeling the burden of rising food prices as other expenses such as transport and house rental were also going up.

“The government’s cash aid for the B40 group is hardly enough for them to cover the rising costs.

“The government needs to look into some concrete measures to increase the supply of food such as vegetables and chicken,” said Mangaleswary. 

 

Mangaleswary suggests that the government give food suppliers some form of subsidy.

She said it was important to have control on prices of essential food items such as rice, sugar, flour, vegetables, fruits and chicken. To keep the supply chain going, she suggested that the government give suppliers some form of subsidy to help them overcome difficulties such as rise in price of chicken feed and transport cost.

“Of course, people must be reminded to be prudent and not to waste food,” she stressed.

Dr Richard Ng, president of NGO Ipoh City Watch, said although the country was transitioning into the Covid-19 endemic phase, the B40 folk in particular had little to cheer about. 

 

Ng says government assistance must reach the target group on a more consistent basis.

He said those who had been jobless might have heaved a huge sigh of relief as they would be able to earn a basic living.

He highlighted that a chain reaction had been triggered with the implementation of the minimum wage, the war between Russia and Ukraine taking a toll on the world’s economy, and the government’s announcement on the removal of subsidy on cooking oil and other essential items.

“These events have caused the prices of petrol, gas, cooking oil and essential food items to go up by at least 30%.

“This diminishing purchasing power not only impacts the B40 group, but also those in the M40.

“Each time such a crisis happens, the government can ask the people to tighten their belt, take less sugar, grow their own vegetables, provide one-off monetary assistance and groceries.

“But in reality, these efforts cannot really address the hard times faced by the people,” said Ng.

Instead, he said political leaders should set an example by going down to the ground and checking if the efforts made by them were effective.

He said government assistance must reach the target group on a more consistent basis, instead of just providing one-off aid.

“One way to solve this is to ensure some sort of prepaid card is given for the poor to buy groceries and other essential items from authorised outlets selling goods at lower prices.

“Of course, the mechanism must be monitored strictly to ensure there is no abuse and products sold must be of a certain minimum standard,” Ng added.

• StarMetro By MANJIT KAUR manjit@thestar.com.my

Stretching their ringgit further 

 Like the rest of the nation, consumers in Ipoh, Perak, are feeling the pinch from the rise in the prices of goods, especially essential items.

The increase in prices is taking a toll on the people, leaving those in the low and middle-income groups struggling to cope. 

Joginder showing the brinjal growing in her garden.Joginder showing the brinjal growing in her garden.

Retiree Joginder Kaur Jessy, 67, said she had started to grow some vegetables in her house compound to help cut cost of buying greens.

She said eating out had always been expensive but cooking at home was no longer cheap either.

Expressing dismay at the rise in the prices of oil, vegetables, fish, chicken and eggs, she felt it necessary to cut back on some items as she was a pensioner.

“I have to be more prudent now and use less ingredients when cooking.

“I will probably have to look for a cheaper type of fish, eat less chicken, try to cook smaller portions, avoid wastage and make leftover food stretch over a few days,” she said.

Among the vegetables and fruits that Joginder has planted are chillies, okra, brinjal, lemon, mint, banana and papaya.

“Most of the prices of vegetables, fish and other seafood have tripled.

“Some fishmongers and vegetable and fruit sellers have taken this opportunity to raise the prices even further,” she added.

Holly Lai, 60, a marketing manager, said that at times cooking at home was more expensive than eating out.

Lai, who is single, said she used to cook at home, but after the increase in prices, she discovered it was not worth the effort.

Preferring fish and eggs in her diet, she noted that the prices of these items were not affordable.

“For me to cook a meal consisting of fish, rice and a vegetable, it will easily cost about RM15, not including the spices and other ingredients.

“In comparison, I can get a meal consisting of three dishes and rice for between RM5 and RM7 from a stall.

“During these trying times, I must choose wisely and cannot simply eat at expensive restaurants,” she added.

Teacher Ambiga Pillay, 60, said the government should step in to counter the increase in prices.

Many including herself, she said, were saving on daily living costs by cooking more often as well as cutting back on luxury expenditures and travel.

“I always cook at home although it is a challenge as I work full-time.

“People think that grocery prices are lower in Ipoh compared to Kuala Lumpur, but it is not true.

“Prices here are higher because there is less variety compared to other places,” she said, adding that some also looked for cheaper alternatives to save money.

“I plan my finances based on priority as well,” said Ambiga. 

Ambiga says she cuts down on daily costs by cooking more often at home.

 

Family Wellness Club president P. Mangaleswary also noted that people had been complaining about the rising prices of essential items. 

 

Mangaleswary suggests that the government give food suppliers some form of subsidy.

She said some members of the non-governmental organisation (NGO) complained about how prices of vegetables had gone up in wet markets.

Members were saying that 1kg of tomatoes now cost RM9 when it used to be about RM5 before, she told StarMetro.

“Just last weekend at a get-together, some said they were feeling the burden of rising food prices as other expenses such as transport and house rental were also going up.

“The government’s cash aid for the B40 group is hardly enough for them to cover the rising costs.

“The government needs to look into some concrete measures to increase the supply of food such as vegetables and chicken,” said Mangaleswary.

She said it was important to have control on prices of essential food items such as rice, sugar, flour, vegetables, fruits and chicken. To keep the supply chain going, she suggested that the government give suppliers some form of subsidy to help them overcome difficulties such as rise in price of chicken feed and transport cost.

“Of course, people must be reminded to be prudent and not to waste food,” she stressed.

Dr Richard Ng, president of NGO Ipoh City Watch, said although the country was transitioning into the Covid-19 endemic phase, the B40 folk in particular had little to cheer about. 

 

Ng says government assistance must reach the target group on a more consistent basis.

He said those who had been jobless might have heaved a huge sigh of relief as they would be able to earn a basic living.

He highlighted that a chain reaction had been triggered with the implementation of the minimum wage, the war between Russia and Ukraine taking a toll on the world’s economy, and the government’s announcement on the removal of subsidy on cooking oil and other essential items.

“These events have caused the prices of petrol, gas, cooking oil and essential food items to go up by at least 30%.

“This diminishing purchasing power not only impacts the B40 group, but also those in the M40.

“Each time such a crisis happens, the government can ask the people to tighten their belt, take less sugar, grow their own vegetables, provide one-off monetary assistance and groceries.

“But in reality, these efforts cannot really address the hard times faced by the people,” said Ng.

Instead, he said political leaders should set an example by going down to the ground and checking if the efforts made by them were effective.

He said government assistance must reach the target group on a more consistent basis, instead of just providing one-off aid.

“One way to solve this is to ensure some sort of prepaid card is given for the poor to buy groceries and other essential items from authorised outlets selling goods at lower prices.

“Of course, the mechanism must be monitored strictly to ensure there is no abuse and products sold must be of a certain minimum standard,” Ng added. 

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Experts urge removal of US extra tariffs, Elimination of China tariffs will be key

Expert: U.S. is damaging itself for putting tariffs on China

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Removing additional tariffs on Chinese goods will significantly ease the pressure on companies in both China and the United States, and help the world to curb inflation, experts said on Wednesday (May 4).

Their remarks followed the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or USTR, announcement on Tuesday of the commencement of the statutory four-year review of the continuation of the US "Section 301" tariffs on Chinese products.

In the four-year review, the USTR will examine the tariff actions on Chinese-origin products from July 6, 2018 to Aug 23, 2018.

Based on this review, the US government can determine whether to maintain the tariffs, change the tariff rates, or remove the tariffs.

In the first quarter of this year, China-US trade grew 12 percent year-on-year to $185.92 billion, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed.

According to Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, the additional US tariffs on Chinese products have put heavy burdens on US companies and aggravated inflation levels in the country.

In the US, many businesses involved in trade have been seeking rollback of the additional tariffs on Chinese products.

Besides, many of the tariffs were levied through administrative orders rather than being based on relevant laws. This led to a series of complaints and lawsuits that challenged the authority of those orders issued by the former administration, he said.

In the two-step review process, the first step is for the USTR to offer an opportunity for US domestic industries that benefited from the tariffs to request their continuation. Legally, the tariffs are to terminate four years after their application, if no US party submits a request that they be continued.

If there are requests to continue, the tariffs are received, under the statute the following step requires the USTR to undertake a review of the effectiveness of the "Section 301" tariffs on achieving their objectives and their impact on the US economy and consumers.

Cancelling the additional tariffs on Chinese products will also help many parts of the world to curb inflation, because stable product and commodity supplies from China and the US – the world's two largest economies – will facilitate the world to build strong industrial and supply chains, said Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

As the US dollar is a global currency, the increase in its supply, which far outpaced that of other global currencies like the euro, directly pushed up prices in the US, besides fueling inflation worldwide, which has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he noted.

Amid global inflation and growing pressures on the global supply chain, tariffs have become an inconvenient factor that inhibits enterprises from conducting international trade cooperation, said Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing.

China and the US, he said, should not only remove additional tariffs imposed during their trade disputes, but even further reduce tariffs to make them even lower than the pre-dispute levels. That will significantly boost expectations on normal global supply chain operations, bolster market confidence and facilitate global economic recovery.

"As the world's two largest economies, healthy bilateral relations between China and the US are important not only to them but the world, as the global economy has been facing a number of uncertainties in recent years," he said.

Woody Guo, president for China unit at Herbalife Nutrition, a US-based manufacturer of nutrition products, said it is beneficial for China and the US to enhance their ties in the area of trade and economic cooperation.

"In China, consumption upgrade and domestic demand expansion will help the country to grow its consumer base under the dual-circulation development paradigm, providing huge growth potential for foreign enterprises, including Herbalife Nutrition," Guo said. 

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Elimination of China tariffs will be key 

Easing restrictions: The US and Chinese flags outside a hotel in Beijing. American tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports are due to expire in July, but could be extended if enough industries ask for an extension. — AFP

WASHINGTON: The United States government should eliminate or at least reduce additional tariffs on Chinese imports imposed during the Trump administration, a US trade expert says, arguing that such trade liberalisation measures will help lower elevated inflation and stabilise inflation expectations.

“Here, we’re running a red hot economy. So anything you can do to reduce that cycle is good news,” Gary Hufbauer, non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told Xinhua in a recent phone interview.

In a research published on PIIE’s website, Hufbauer and his colleagues Megan Hogan and Yilin Wang argued that “a feasible trade liberalisation package” could deliver a one-time reduction in consumer price index (CPI) inflation of around 1.3 percentage points. That would save US$797 (RM3,467) for every US household.

He said the direct effect of eliminating additional tariffs on Chinese products would be a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the CPI, but there would also be indirect effect, which will add “substantially” to the 0.3 percentage point.

“It would be a pretty big signal to US firms that they are going to face more competition and that might cause them to moderate their price increases as inflation rolls forward,” said the long time trade expert.

“We’re in a world now where inflation expectations are really quite high,” Hufbauer said, noting that US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes would have some effect on inflation expectations, and trade liberalisation measures “would have an additional effect.”

Stabilising inflation expectations is important, he said, because when expectations are that inflation is going to continue, “that then feeds into wage demands and that then keeps the cycle going.”

According to the latest data from the US Labour Department, the CPI in March surged 8.5% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. That followed a 7.9% year-on-year gain in February.

US personal consumption expenditures price indexes, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, soared by 6.6% in March over the past year, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.

In reaction to the argument that reducing the China tariffs would not lead to a meaningful reduction in prices, Hufbauer said it doesn’t completely eliminate the inflation problem, “but it’s better than doing nothing.”

“So there’s raising interest rates, there’s cutting back federal spending, there’s reducing tariffs, all of those things have some impact,” he said. “I would say it’s something where every little bit counts.”

Regarding the current political environment, Hufbauer said he thinks it will be difficult for the administration to reduce or eliminate additional tariffs on Chinese imports before the mid-term elections, but he hopes that it will do that.

The trade expert said he is “very encouraged” by a recent statement by Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh, who said the Biden administration could lower tariffs on non-strategic Chinese goods such as bicycles or apparel to help curb inflation.Hufbauer noted that the Biden administration could be reluctant to remove the Trump-era tariffs, because it would have to face criticism for being “soft” on China.

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Malaysia's 1Q18 to 4Q21 GDP performance, International scenario likely to affect trajectory

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International scenario likely to affect trajectory

“Hopefully we will start to see private investments gaining traction, but this depends very much also on what is going on in the international front, especially in terms of the Russia-ukraine war and global inflation.” Carmelo Ferlito

Despite being on a recovery path, the country’s economic growth trajectory could be affected by uncertainties on the global front. 

PMalaysia’s gradual and controlled easing of Covid-19 restrictions as it transitions into edemicity is set to give the country’s economy a much needed boost.

Despite being on the recovery path, economists have however cautioned that Malaysia’ economic growth trajectory could still be affected by uncertainties on the global front.

Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said the ongoing Russia-ukraine war, China’s lockdowns and likely austerity in the United States and Europe are key factors that could have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

“The expected negative outlook of the international economic scenario will determine the outcome of Malaysia’s second quarter GDP, not Covid-19 and borders reopening, which we expect to play a marginal role in this phase,” he told Starbiz.

In a base case scenario (which refers to a set of basic assumptions where the results would lead to the most realistic outcome), Williams said Malaysia’s second quarter GDP is forecast to increase 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year.

“This scenario implies that the GDP will be flat over the first half of 2022. This is in contrast to the consensus view of a rampant recovery with a yearly growth figure close to 5.5% and 6%. In our base scenario, we think that a 3.5% year growth is more likely.” 

 Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, China’s lockdowns and likely austerity in the United States and Europe are key factors that could have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

In a risk scenario, Williams said he foresees Malaysia’s GDP “going into slightly negative territory”.

“In our base scenario, we expect to see a systematic and progressive recovery, consistent with the potential rate of growth of the economy only in the second half of 2022.

“The contribution of the external demand is expected to be close to zero, reflecting the international cyclical weakness we are already observing in the US, European Union and China,” he said.

Malaysia, which has been gradually easing its Covid-19-related standard operating procedures since late last year, finally reopened its borders to international travellers from April 1.

Last week, Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin announced a slew of relaxations to Malaysia’s Covid-19 restrictions.

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito said the relaxation measures announced recently would be a good incentive for the tourism industry.

However, he said the impact of the relaxations would likely be better reflected in the third quarter of this year, rather than in the current (second) quarter.

“We can still expect a good momentum for export, pulled by a weaker currency (which is temporarily good for export but harmful for the economy in general).

“Hopefully we will start to see private investments gaining traction, but this depends very much also on what is going on in the international front, especially in terms of the Russiaukraine war and global inflation.”

Malaysia’s GDP expanded 3.1% in 2021, after posting a 3.6% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

In a base case scenario, HELP University economist Dr Paolo Casadio said Malaysia’s first quarter 2022 GDP is projected to shrink 1.5% quarter-on-quarter and contract 0.7% year-on-year. 

 

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito said the relaxation measures announced recently would be a good incentive for the tourism industry.

“This would be due to contraction in investments, negative net external demand and stagnation in private consumption.

“We do not see a clear pattern in private consumption and investments, which would be consistent with a positive transition of the economy toward a systematic and sustained recovery.”

Casadio added that the current phase of recovery is “a delicate transition”.

“There are plenty of weaknesses and risks of a new recessionary phase, although the risk of a recession is only around 25%. Disposable income and wealth among households are not recovering due to weak real wages growth, slow increase in employment and continuing withdrawals from the Employees’ Provident Fund to finance current expenditure, even among the middle-income population.”

Ferlito, meanwhile, said he was “not a big fan of GDP forecasts” when asked about his projections for Malaysia’s economic performance for the first quarter of 2022.

“It’s because they fail to ignore how an eventual growth or decline is built. For example, GDP grew in 2021 by 3.1%, but that growth was mainly driven by government spending and private consumption.

“This means that growth is resting on very unstable pillars, being basically financed by household and government debt and inflation.”

Ferlito emphasised that private investments remained “quite stagnant” in 2021.

“The key drivers of a sustainable growth path are savings, which are not measured by GDP and private investments. “I think that beyond the GDP figure, which in itself is pretty useless, we should look at the microfoundations behind it. We will be on the right path if private investments grow, while a closer look should also be devoted to the savings dynamics, which is not captured by the GDP.”Ferlito noted that Bank Negara foresees a good rebound in private investments for 2022.

“This is what we need to hope for, although I believe that a lot of elements of uncertainty are still weighing on that, in particular for the first quarter of 2022.”

Ferlito said the political situation in Malaysia could also have an impact on the country’s GDP performance.

“Hopefully we will have elections with the emergence of a strong majority supported by a reformist agenda. Then there is the big issue of China, which in 2021 accounted for 15.5% of Malaysian exports. China is Malaysia’s first trade partner and therefore their utopic approach to Covid-19 will surely have an impact on our economy.”

Ferlito added that geopolitical uncertainties in Europe could also have an impact on Malaysia’s economic performance.

“Europe accounts for around 7% of the international trade of Malaysia, both in terms of import and export. Troubles there will lead to repercussions here.”

Williams said the focus at the moment should be on price stability and maintaining expansionary credit conditions.

“The government has managed the containment of inflation well up to now, through the control of petrol and other prices. But it was an error to allow the hike of the electric tariffs for the non-residential users in March. This is adding perhaps 0.5% to the outlook of inflation in a very critical phase.”

Williams said this hike should be reversed to guarantee a low level of inflation, which is necessary to support the purchasing power of salaries.

“This would be possible by redistributing the gains and costs of the increase in oil and gas that the different government-linked companies are experiencing and avoids penalising firms and households.”

Casadio meanwhile said he expects Bank Negara to maintain the current expansionary conditions and not revise the official interest rate of the monetary policy until the second half of 2022. 

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US forces other countries pay for its economic problems with monetary policy tightening: experts

If the US really acts wildly on China over the Ukraine issue, Chinese people will just face it

 China feels cascading effects with dropping stocks

With its stock market jumping, the dollar strengthening, and global capital flowing in, the US is again reaping profits but bringing financial shockwaves to foreign countries, whether they are what it claims are rivals, like China, or allies, like the EU, by tightening its monetary policy, experts observed.

As the Fed policy tightening accelerates, analysts said that the US is increasingly turning into a world "damager" instead of "protector" when the country finds its global responsibilities clash with its own national interests, and the world is paying the price for the US' domestic problems, like surging inflation.

In recent days, the side effects of US monetary policy, particularly the Fed's hawkish push for raising interest rates, have spread to multiple regions of the world and multiple financial areas.

The US Dollar Index is turning up sharply, at one point touching a ceiling of 100.19 on Friday, the highest level since May 2020. Accompanied by the rise is the weakening of global currencies including the yen, the euro and the yuan.

Global stock and bond markets are also sliding. The 10-year US Treasury yield topped its Chinese equivalent on Monday for the first time in 12 years.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slipped by 2.61 percent on Monday, the Hong Kong-based Hang Seng Index dropped by more than 3 percent, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 was down 1.81 percent on Tuesday.

Contractions on global financial markets are generally considered to be a result of the Fed's move to increase interest rates recently, the first time in more than three years. Investors are betting on more aggressive rate hikes in the coming months after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed tough action to rein in inflation during a recent speech at the National Association for Business Economics.

The US government has stepped on the gas to drive up interest rates to contain inflation. The US Consumer Price Index jumped by 8.5 percent on a yearly basis in March, touching a 40-year-high due to rising oil, food and housing costs. The growth beat market expectations of 8.4 percent.

However, Chinese experts criticized the US for shifting the burden of its own economic problems to global markets.

"The US is letting global markets pay the price for its own crisis of inflation, depending on the dominant role of the US dollar and the integration of the global economy," Li Haidong, a professor from the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times.

According to Li, the countries holding massive US dollar assets will feel the pinch from Fed's tightening, but the blow will be even more vital for countries that have a vulnerable social system, as the US action might bring havoc to social stability there.

He also said that when the US government sees a clash between its global responsibility and its own interests, it does not feel guilt in choosing the latter.

"The US' role in the world is turning from that of a protector to a kind of damager, as it thinks that globalization is bad for its own interests," Li said.

Even countries that are in the same league as the US won't escape the US' profit-seeking moves, experts said.

Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times that the US is adding fuel to the flames of the Ukraine crisis, in order to strengthen its position in the so-called Western alliance, as well as further enhance the role of the greenback after investors saw Europe was not secure.

A direct consequence of this strategy is a weaker EU, both businesswise and politically, as the region's independence is undermined, while the military chaos also hurts the region's energy supplies and the euro's attraction to international investors.

Xi said that US monetary policy shifts will put pressure on the Chinese mainland's financial markets, especially as the mainland expands connections with the Hong Kong stock market, which is more vulnerable to US financial volatility.

However, Xi stressed that the impact on the mainland markets won't be severe because of capital flow restrictions, and China's independent monetary policy will not be swayed by external factors like the US Fed's decisions.

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What is the best hedge against inflation?

`   

Then there are newer and more interesting physical and luxury items that isn’t part of the financial markets which appeared to hold the value very well. Minted limited edition Lego sets, select Hermes and Chanel handbags as well as tier-one luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Rolex are such examples.

The challenge is finding a suitable asset class that is palatable to one’s risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial capability. This is why there are many varieties of asset classes in the financial markets that serve different purposes.
`
` IF you have savings of RM100,000 or Rm1mil, how would you utilise this amount of money to preserve your wealth?
`
` It is a legitimate question but increasingly pressing as globally, countries around the world are facing inflationary pressure due to the effects of loose monetary policies for the past two years.
`
` While not everyone is passionate about the financial markets or macroeconomics, most would be concern if they were to know the value of their money or hard-earned savings are increasingly eroded daily through no fault of theirs.
`
` The common method adopted by most would be to assess how much ringgit is worth against foreign currencies like US dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound and the likes. Another would be the actual purchasing power of your money. Combining both, it becomes the formula of purchasing power parity.
`
` I have written an article in this column last year using the Big Mac Index to illustrate inflationary effects. Today, as inflation is already here, I prefer to dwell into how individuals can protect their savings from inflation itself.
`
` Some would argue, they live in solitary and would hardly be impacted even if the ringgit weakened substantially. However, even one who does not travel abroad and lives entirely within the domestic ecosystem cannot run away from the impact of inflation.
`
` As the world economy is a huge interlinked web, connected via global trades, inflationary pressure can be imported through the transaction of goods or the fact that our country has foreign debts. There is no absolute way of shielding in entirety.
`
` Ceiling price for necessities and list of controlled items are what government of the day do to ensure some level of protection for the citizens but if market forces react otherwise, government intervention in itself is not sufficient to push back. This is proven even in the strictest communist or socialist regime around the world, such as North Korea.
`
` The only way to hedge against inflation is to engage in some form of investment. In the past, real estate has always been recognised as one of the best asset classes to preserve wealth and hedge against inflation. This ageold wisdom has survived through thousands of years and civilisations.
`
` New asset class

` As the society evolves and modern economy takes shape, there is now the creation of new asset class which in the past either simply do not exist or wouldn’t make sense to invest substantially. The more common form of investments are the likes of bonds, gold, fixed deposits and equities.

` Then came mutual funds and index-linked funds. Exchange-traded funds in recent years became wildly popular, especially when active investment returns did not provide the same kind of returns it once did.

` This gained traction for those who are mostly passive investors or do not have the time to do individual stock picking. Yet, despite all the asset classes mentioned above, these are all considered relatively acceptable to most people.

` With the millennials and Gen-z being in the workforce, technology have taken centrestage in every part of our lives even when it comes to asset classes. Cryptocurrency, non-fungible tokens (NFTS) and digital assets have made its way into mainstream financial markets where investment banks, which traditionally scoffs at such assets, have now become a part of the frenzy.
`
` Advocates of cryptocurrency, for instance, goes as far as calling it a hedge against inflation or hedge against “fiat currency” or the “new gold”.
`
` Traditional asset classes highlighted above are seen as out-of-date by the new crop of investors, whoever they are and wherever they may come from. I do not wish to debate the utility and viability of cryptocurrency, NFTS or digital assets. However, the big question to me though is, what truly constitutes a hedge against inflation?
`
` For an asset class to constitute a hedge against inflation, the more fundamental aspect is for the asset class to consistently outperform annual inflationary pressure. For example, if the inflation rate is 4% per annum over 10 years, the asset class that one invest in must outperform 4% per annum consistently across the same period.
`
` This asset class will then effectively hedge and protect the value of your money over a substantial duration of time.
`
` The challenge is finding a suitable asset class that is palatable to one’s risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial capability. This is why there are many varieties of asset classes in the financial markets that serve different purposes.
`
` Bonds and gold are good for those with low-risk appetite but do not expect spectacular returns from these asset class. In fact, many have questioned whether bonds and gold can still preserve value although this has been proven in the past during wars and turbulent times.

 ` Luxury items
`
` Then there are newer and more interesting physical and luxury items that isn’t part of the financial markets which appeared to hold the value very well. Minted limited edition Lego sets, select Hermes and Chanel handbags as well as tier-one luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Rolex are such examples.
`
` An unopened Lego set delivers an average annual return of 11%. A Hermes Birkin has seen an average annual increase in price of 14% from 1980 to 2015. This is in comparison to the returns of gold at -2.1% and S&P 500 at 11.7% over the same period.
`
` For the Chanel Classic Medium Flap bag, the price has increased over the past 31 years, from US$1,150 (RM4,817) in 1990 to US$8,800 (RM36,858) in 2021. This gives an average annual return of 21.4% and a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% throughout the period.
`
` If we look at watches, the retail price of stainless steel sports watches have gone crazy in recent years. A Phillipe Patek Nautilus, which retailed at US$3,100 (RM12,985) in 1976 when it was first introduced, is retailing at today US$35,000 (RM146,485)
`
` What is more frightening is the secondary market or grey market pricing for these luxury goods due to the sheer difficulty of getting one at retail price.
`
` A standard Hermes Birkin sized 25 retails at around US$10,000 (RM41,885) but in the secondary market, it can fetch as high as US$25,000 (RM104,713). The Patek Nautilus in a grey market commands close to US$175,000 (RM733,000). The classic Rolex Submariner date steel, which retails at US$10,800 (RM45,236), commands a huge premium in the grey market at around US$20,000 (RM83,770).
`>
` Some may argue that these are the tactical strategy by the ultra-luxury brands to restrict supply and cause a demand shortage in order to drive up the price, making it a highly desirable product.

` However, the counter argument is the fact that these top range luxury brands are handcrafted and requires the hours to produce the finish product. The limited resources coupled with the need to ensure quality also limits supply.

` In the face of a rising affluent class and burgeoning upper-middle class globally, naturally these luxury brands become highly sought after. Once the second-hand market is able to preserve the value, it becomes a hedge against inflation.

` My biggest takeaway though is not which asset class would be the best hedge against inflation. Rather, even within each asset class, it requires homework, due diligence and careful selection in terms of investment to preserve wealth. Making the right decision to purchase or invest needs time and effort
`
` Not all that glitters are gold and in this case, selected steel watches may be worth more than a pure gold watch. So, choose the asset class that you can best understand and would be happy to hold over time in the face of inflation.

NG ZHU HANN Ng Zhu Hann is the author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”. He is a lawyer and former chief strategist of a Fortune 500 Corp. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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