Developers shift focus to higher-priced residential properties in Penang; Busy in construction sector 2016

Projects worth RM41bil in Penang next year

 

Chan: ‘We still foresee the volume and value transactions of properties to contract in 2016. However, the contraction this time won’t be so sharp." (Default Alternate Text: "Chan: ‘We still foresee the volume and value transactions of properties to contract in 2016. However, the contraction this time won’t be so sharp.

GEORGE TOWN: Five developers will undertake RM4.33bil in property projects in Penang next year despite a challenging year for the property market.

The developers planned to price their mostly residential properties from between RM480,000 and RM3.3mil.

The price range came on the heels of this year’s launches of between RM200,000 and RM400,000 in strategic locations.

The developers would be shifting their focus to higher-priced residential properties.The condominium units in Bayan Lepas will be from 1,000 sq ft and priced from RM480,000 while three-storey houses with built-up of 5,300 sq ft will be priced at RM3.3mil in Seri Tanjung Pinang.

The developers are IJM Land Bhd with gross development value (GDV) of RM415mil, Ideal Property Group (RM1.46bil GDV), Hunza Properties Bhd (RM600mil GDV), Eastern & Oriental Bhd (RM650mil GDV) and Mah Sing Group Bhd (RM1.2bil GDV).

Real Estate & Housing Developers’ Association (Penang) chairman Datuk Jerry Chan told StarBiz that developers could be shifting their focus to properties priced from RM400,000 as there was a large supply of housing priced between RM200,000 and RM400,000 targeting first-time buyers.

This did not mean that buyers have lost interest in affordable housing with built-up of 900 sq ft and priced from RM500 to RM600 per sq ft.

Chan pointed out that developers would continue to build housing in the affordable range to leverage on the higher density for plots of land but there would be a gradual shift to the “non-affordable” range.

He added that there would be fewer launches in 2016, due to the difficulties in obtaining bridging and end-financing loans from banks.

Referring to the incoming supply of housing that were currently under construction, Chan said this would be spread over a five- to 10-year period, depending on market demand and the size of the schemes.

The National Information Property Centre (Napic) report revealed that the state would see an incoming supply of 72,114 units into the market.

According to the Napic report, the existing stock of houses in the state stood at 393,303, compared with 383,484 in the first half of 2014.

“We still foresee the volume and value transactions of properties to contract in 2016. However, the contraction this time won’t be so sharp,” Chan said.

Ideal executive chairman Datuk Alex Ooi said the group had developed 4,840 units of affordable projects on the island for the last two years.

“We have sold about 60% of these properties. Moving ahead, the strategy is to move into the non-affordable range priced between RM400,000 and RM600,000.

“Ideal Property still has around 300 acres of land bank on the island. We have some 25,000 units of properties planned for the land bank.

“There are still 8,000 units of properties with more than RM4bil in GDV to be implemented over the next 10 years, priced between RM400,000 and RM600,000,” Ooi said.

‘Moderate to flat’ outlook

Ooi expected property market conditions to be “moderate” to “flat” in the coming year.

Mah Sing (North) senior general manager Law Wei Keong said the company had recently completed a survey on the preference of housing products in the country.

“The study revealed that a majority of the 6,000 surveyed favoured houses priced in the range of RM500,000 to RM700,000,” he said.

Of the RM2bil worth of housing projects launched in the country this year, about 16% were priced from RM1mil, while the remaining 84% are below RM1mil, according to Law.

IJM Land senior general manager (north) Datuk Toh Chin Leong said despite the weak market sentiment, the company would continue to launch properties priced below RM800,000.

“It will be a slow year for the property market in 2016,” Toh said.

 TrehausIJM Land’s pipeline of projects for next year in Penang included the RM232mil Waterside Residence in The Light Waterfront project next to Penang Bridge, the RM64.7mil Trehaus Condo Villa scheme in Bukit Jambul, and the RM118.4mil Senjayu Terrace project in Jawi, South Seberang Prai.

The Trehaus and the Waterside Residences scheme would be launched in the second quarter of 2016, while the Senjayu Terrace would be introduced in late 2016.

“The price of the three property schemes ranged between RM730,000 and RM1.3mil,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ideal would be launching the RM460mil Forestville, RM600mil Queens Waterfront Residences, and RM400mil Camerlina, located in Bayan Lepas, priced between RM480,000 and RM800,000.

“There is still growing need for mid-range houses that is reasonably priced, located within mature township, surrounded and supported by amenities such as schools with good accessibility, lower density with lifestyle concept,” he said.

Eastern & Oriental will develop the recently launched RM482mil Tamarind and 50 units of terraced houses with a RM168mil GDV in Seri Tanjung Pinang.

The Tamarind units, ranging between 1,000 sq ft and 1,770 sq ft, are priced around RM691,000 and RM1.16mil, while the terraced units, with built-up areas of 5,300 sq ft, are priced from RM3.3mil.

Its general manager (marketing and sales) Christina Lau said the Tamarind was scheduled for completion in 2019.

No date has been set for the completion of the 50-terraced properties.

Mah Sing to unveil Ferringhi Residence 2

Mah Sing will launch the RM735mil Ferringhi Residence 2, the RM350mil Icon Residence and an unnamed RM150mil project in Southbay City, Batu Maung.

“We are targeting the Ferringhi Residence 2 launch in the first quarter,” Law said.

The Ferringhi Residence 2 consists of three blocks offering 632 units with built-up areas from 1,208 sq ft to 2,910 sq ft, priced from RM775,265.

Law said the pricing for the unnamed project would be below RM680 per sq ft.

“The units have built-up areas of 750 sq ft to 1,000 sq ft,” he said.

Meanwhile, Hunza will develop the RM600mil Alila 2 project in Tanjung Bungah, 270 units which have built up of between 1,900 sq ft and 3,300 sq ft, priced from RM775 per sq ft.

“We will promote the 9.8acre project in Indonesia, Hong Kong, and Singapore early next year.

“The key attractions are the size of the units, which are extremely scarce on the island nowadays,” group managing director Khor Siang Gin said.

By David Tan The Star

Construction sector to be busy in 2016 with projects worth RM83bil 

KUALA LUMPUR: WITH over RM83bil worth of infrastructure jobs to be awarded next year, it is going to be a busy year for the construction sector in 2016.

“The 11th Malaysia Plan unveiled in May 2015 has reaffirmed the strong pipeline of construction jobs till 2020. The record awards of project delivery partners (PDPs) for four major infrastructure projects with total value of RM80bil have further reiterated the potential works,” said Maybank IB Research in a recent strategy report. This flow of contracts if they are rolled out according to plan, is a new record, outpacing the high of RM28bil dished out in 2012.

The strong job flows are expected to be driven from new tenders in public transport, oil & gas downstream infrastructure and water-related jobs.

New award phase for the Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit Line 2, is set to take off from the first half of next year while the other rail project coming on strean is the Klang Valley Light Railway Transit (KVLRT) 3. The Gemas-JB double track, which is being reviewed, is another potential.

The total value of rail-related construction jobs was estimated at RM39bil in the medium term, said CIMB Research. “These could be broken into 17-20 chunky packages worth between RM800mil and RM1.5bil each, excluding underground portions,” the research firm said in its recent outlook report.

As for highways, there are the RM4.2bil Damansara-Shah Alam Highway (DASH), the Sungai Besi-Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE), and the remaining West Coast Expressway (WCE) packages to be awarded. In East Malaysia, eleven more packages of the 1,090km Pan-Borneo Highway is expected to be tendered out in phases next year.

As for oil and gas infrastructure, Petronas’ Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (Rapid) project in Pengerang, Johor, is expected to see investments worth RM18bil based on Budget 2016.

On water-type contracts, CIMB Research reckoned that over RM2bil worth of jobs could be dished out and this excludes potential jobs from the private sector side.

The country’s strengthened ties with China have also injected further optimism into the construction sector.

“Chinese contractors have expressed interest in the rail projects, specifically, the Gemas-JB double track rail and Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high speed rail. Local contractors could partner them in bidding for the projects. With the Chinese companies’ ability to offer attractive financing packages, this would raise their chances of winning the projects, while allaying concerns on project funding issue,” said Maybank Research.

One other key project to watch for is the Penang Transportation Master Plan (PTMP) that is said to have contract value of RM27bil.

As for stock picks, Maybank IB Research has Gamuda Bhd at its top pick. The stock was a likely beneficiary of the PTMP and could also clinch additional jobs from the mega rail projects including KVLRT 3 and Gemas-JB double track rail, the research firm said.

CIMB Research also has Gamuda as its big-cap pick for the largest exposure to MRT 2. Among small/mid-cap it has Muhibbah Engineering Bhd as the preferred stock for the company’s US-dollar theme and exposure to Petronas’ Rapid.

“In the water segment, Salcon Bhd could emerge with a bigger share of wins. The company’s tender book currently stood at RM1bil to RM2bil,” said CIMB Research.

On the other hand, Public Invest Research has a neutral “call” on the sector as “most of the counters under our coverage were already fairly valued.”

“Currently, the construction index is priced at 13 times one-year forward earnings, which is also equal to its long-term mean. Hence, we believe the sector is fully valued for now, with most positives already priced in.”

As for stock picks, the research firm favours WCT Holdings Bhd as its job replenishment was better than expected with RM2.7bil clinched to-date, bumping up its unbilled orderbook to more than RM5bil. “Hock Seng Lee Bhd is expected to benefit from the Pan Borneo project, while Gamuda also looks attractive after the stock dipped below our fair value.”

By Gurmeet Kaur The Star

Immigration & education drive property prices; Secondary property sales may take lead

Immigration and education are two drivers of property prices in cities in the next 10 years to 2024, said property consultancy Knight Frank International.

Its Asia-Pacific reaearch director Nicholas Holt said up to 76,000 Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWI) from China have immigrated the last 10 years - the highest - while up to 72% of Malaysia’s UHNWI send their children abroad, the highest. (See graphics below).

The cities include London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Holt was presenting his Wealth Report 2015 updated till third quarter 2015 at the 25th National Real Estate Convention in Kuala Lumpur.

He defined UHNWIs as those with US$30mil and above in investible income excluding their primary residence.

In an Attitudes Survey involving 600 advisors of UHNWIs by Knight Frank, the advisors - bankers included - said about 10% of their Malaysia’s ultra-high net worth clients were considering changing their domicile in the earlier part of this year.

“This compares with an overall 12% in Asia who are considering changing domicile,” said Holt.

Data show drop in primary market transactions

SUBANG JAYA: The ongoing slowdown in the local property sector could see transactions in the secondary property market overtaking that of the primary market.

Citing data from the National Property Information Centre (Napic), PPC International Sdn Bhd managing director Datuk Siders Sittampalam said the economic slowdown has affected transactions in the primary property market this year.

"Siders: ‘Total volume of transactions in the primary market has dropped, and this has also resulted in values dropping. >>

“Total volume of transactions in the primary market has dropped, and this has also resulted in values dropping.

“As such, there will come a time when the secondary market will lead the primary market,” he said at a press conference after the launch of the 25th National Real Estate Convention (NREC) 2015 yesterday.

Siders said it was difficult to provide a specific timeline on when he expected transactions in the secondary market to exceed that of the primary market.

“In terms of value, the primary market will find it harder to match the secondary market due to rising land and building costs,” he said.

Siders said he expected transactions in the primary market to improve once cooling measures imposed on the local property sector have been relaxed.

“Once the economy picks up and Bank Negara backs off on its cooling measures, the primary market will pick up again.”

He also said a drastic hike in interest rates will have an impact on the property sector.

“Over the last few years, the property market had been steadily growing due to various measures such as the developers interest bearing scheme (DIBS). Because of these measures, pricing in the market has been distorted.

“Now, when people have committed to their loans, especially youths and first time buyers, and there is a sudden hike in interest rates, there will be a dip in the market.

“Loans go bad and many properties will go under the hammer. This will not be a healthy market.” Siders said he was hopeful that any interest rate hike by the central bank would be a “sustainable increase.”

Bank Negara maintained its overnight policy rate in September at 3.25%.

The NREC was organised by the Royal Institution of Surveyors Malaysia and the Association of Valuers, Property Managers, Estate Agents and Property Consultants in the Private Sector, Malaysia.

The event highlighted major concerns for the future of the real estate industry in Malaysia during the current economic period.

BY EUGENE MAHALINGAM

Related posts:

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  Penang property market to be resilient on sustained demand

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  Malaysian property market is still 'sparkling'

  Away from the city: Developers are now turning to more affordable areas outside the Klang Valley like Negri Sembilan. Continuing an exam...

Penang property market to be resilient on sustained demand

PETALING JAYA: Penang’s property market is expected to stay resilient on the back of sustained demand, especially from Penangites working abroad planning to return and prospective retirees eyeing homes in the state.

“There has been a slowdown in the last year. There are a few categories of investors in Penang; those who are owner occupiers, those who are investors for the cultural developments, those who are in the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) and Penangites who work abroad but would like to settle in Malaysia,” said Penang Institute CEO and head of economics studies Dr Lim Kim Hwa (pictured) at the National Real Estate Convention (NREC) 2015 yesterday.

“For the last two categories, the properties in Penang would be priced significantly cheaper, thus I believe the demand in the property sector in Penang would remain rather constant,” concluded Lim during his presentation entitled “Penang: The Next Metropolis”.

In terms of the wider economy, Penang is expected to register a 5% to 6% growth in its gross domestic product (GDP), outpacing the overall country’s growth by 1%, he said, noting that last year, Penang’s GDP grew by 7.4% while Malaysia’s grew by 6%.

According to Lim, Penang contributes 21.8% of the balance of Malaysia’s trade surplus, specialising in machinery, transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles.

“Penang’s economy is more export-orientated, and now there is a better demand for electrical and electronic goods,” he said.

The export sector is expected to improve with the recovery of the US economy and the weaker ringgit, he added.

“It is important that Penang provides the best environment to attract more investments. Penang is the main manufacturing and economic hub for electronic and electrical items. Bayan Lepas is already full. It is important to provide more space for industrial growth.”

Some of the projects and initiatives that are expected to contribute to this growth is the IT-BPO at Bayan Lepas, BPO Prime at Bayan Baru and Changkat Byram, south of Batu Kawan.

Other projects that will benefit Penang overall include the Penang Transport Master Plan, Penang Heritage Arts District – Ilham Penang at Sia Boey, Creative Animation Triggers at Wisma Yeap Chor Ee, and Komtar refurbishment. “All of these projects involve the private sector,” added Lim.

“The Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP) is the catalyst to [turning Penang into a] metropolis, as it involves alleviating a lot of the problems locally in Penang, especially traffic congestion,” said Lim.

Expected to be completed in 2030, the RM27 billion project would include amenities such as trams for the heritage zones, LRT for the island and mainland, and water taxis.

Lim said Penang is on track to achieving its metropolis status.

“It is an ongoing process, and there is no deadline. Penang aims to transform into an international, intelligent city filled with life. To create a great metropolis, it has to be unique, and it has to attract people to want to live and expand the growth of the city,” he said.

NREC 2015 saw more than 250 participants from the banking, development, property and consultancy industries.

NREC is organised by the Royal Institution of Surveyors Malaysia (RISM) and co-organised by the Association of Valuers, Property Managers, Estate Agents and Property Consultants in the Private Sector Malaysia (PEPS).

Themed “Homes For Generations – Redefining Development Trends”, the convention highlighted concerns for the future of the real estate industry in Malaysia.

By Hannah Rafee / theedgeproperty.com 

Malaysian property market is still 'sparkling'

Away from the city: Developers are now turning to more affordable areas outside the Klang Valley like Negri Sembilan.

Continuing an examination of the property sector post Budget 2016, Sunday Star discovers that, despite high prices, investors remain upbeat because demand for property continues to outstrip supply many times over.

INVESTOR Ahyat Ishak says for the rakyat, property prices are “beyond annoying”.

They see all these new properties springing up – but, he points out, these are not “rumah mampu milik” (affordable houses) and are only “rumah mampu tengok” (houses you can look at but not own) for most of us because of the high prices.

“Property has become something of a bad taste in the mouth and people have become negative. And the market feels negative even though property prices continue to rise,” he says.

Although there is this “huge disconnect” between what’s being built and what people can buy, many developers continue to “defy gravity”.

“They do business as usual and offer properties beyond afforda­bility,” says Ahyat, who runs workshops for potential property investors and is the author of the 2013 bestseller, The Strategic Property Investor. Dr Daniele Gambero, a marketing and strategic consultant for developers, says over the past few years developers have been over-delivering high-end, high-cost properties.

Towards the end of last year, however, they started developing more affordable areas further out from Kuala Lumpur, such as south, east and west of the city within the Klang Valley, as well as in places like Semenyih near Selangor’s border with Negri Sembilan and Nilai, Negri Sembilan.

Gambero says most of the big property developers in the country have had launches in these areas, quoting as an example, Malaysian Vision Valley, a 108,000ha development extending from Nilai to Port Dickson in Negri Sembilan.

He notes that developers have been buying up land in these areas at affordable prices like RM15 to RM25 per square foot compared with several hundred, or even several thousand, ringgit they would have to pay for land in the Klang Valley or KL.

At such prices, he points out, developers can actually build affordable houses of say 1,600sq ft to 1,800sq ft, which are reasonable sizes for families, and which are in such high demand.

“But instead of doing that, one of the things I find a bit funny is that developers have been building huge homes of 2,500sq ft to 3,000sq ft.”

Doing the math, Gambero points out that a 1,600sq ft house selling at RM300 per square foot would come up to RM480,000, but a 3,000sq ft house at RM300 per square foot would cost a whopping RM900,000.

“So unfortunately, developers have again brought the end house price to an unaffordable level!” says Gambero who is the CEO of the REI group of companies and who is an Italian expatriate who has been in Malaysia for almost two decades.

He has been doing extensive research on per capita income, household income, and the value of affordable homes in both Selangor and KL, which represents one-third of the country’s population and says that, “If you get it right here, then you can replicate it in other areas”.

He breaks the figures down into categories.

There is this ‘huge disconnect’ between what’s being built and what people can buy, yet developers ‘defy gravity’. - Ahyat Ishak

For Selangor, he estimates the need for low-cost houses is relatively low as only 8.2% households need houses that costs RM120,000 and below, while the figure in KL is 6.2 %.

The majority of households (63.6% in Selangor and 61.6% in KL) can afford houses priced between RM260,000 and RM600,000 (see chart for break down).

Gambero notes that only 15.4% in Selangor and 16.3% in KL can afford houses above RM500,000 up to a maximum of RM700,00.

“But if you look at what the big property guys are offering, most of the houses are above RM600,000. It doesn’t make sense,” says Gambero.

And, he points out, banks are no longer providing 90% financing for these huge houses because of overpricing.

“Banks are not stupid. They have been doing their homework and they have been coming up with the same conclusion that I have been coming up with, which is that there is going to be an oversupply of big homes and you (developers) are not going to clear your stock.”

Gambero points out that in the last three to four years, more than 60% to 65% of the supply of houses that developers built have been directed toward the top 20% of Malaysians who hold 40% of the country’s wealth.

“These are the people who can afford to buy whatever the market is throwing at them.”

But what about the rest?

You don’t hear of prices dropping. Because demand is 10 to 20 times higher than the supply of homes. - Dr Daniele Gambero

Prices won’t drop

Adrian Un has been involved in a number of property launches.

And he says that it is not true the property sector has been lacklustre.

One has to just look at all the pictures on Facebook and other social media sites to see that there are still a lot of people queuing up to buy properties.

“These are actually people queuing up to buy. I have seen huge numbers placing their cheques to buy. Whether they are first time buyers or not, we don’t know. But the situation is not as bad as being portrayed in the media or as claimed by the developers.

“The buying sentiment for units costing from RM300,000 to RM800,000 is still pretty much positive,” says Un who is the CEO and cofounder of Skybridge International, a property education and investment company.

But with everyone saying property prices are now sky-high, are there still properties out there going for RM300,000 or RM400,000?

Un says developers have been building small shoebox units of about 450sq ft to 600sq ft to entice Gen Y people to enter into the property market. These are priced between RM300,000 and RM500,000 and are often near the LRT and other amenities.

“So even if it is RM700 per square foot, a young graduate earning RM3,000 calculates it based on his affordability to pay the instalment. So he sees it as being quite affordable because the absolute entry level is RM400,000.

“A lot of the Gen Y have been on a learning curve on how to be a millionaire.

The Gen Y see owning a property as an investment. It also gives them bragging rights. - Adrian Un

“They are starting off early to be financially free and see owning a property as an investment. It also gives them bragging rights,” he says.

So these small units are still very much in demand and selling, he says, even though the rental might not be enough to cover the loan instalment.

“It’s already happening now. Demand for these units (to rent) is not big in numbers. Buyers would have to lower their expectation on the rent. So over the next one or two years, it is going to be a renters’ market. And it still boils down to location – if you are within 12km to 15km of the city, and there is a good infrastructure hub with the LRT and amenities like a shopping mall and hospital nearby, I don’t think it will be that bad,” he says.

It is the higher end properties priced at RM1mil and above which are struggling, says Un.

He says sales for these have been slow because many investors have already chalked up a lot of loans over the last four to five years for properties, so it is not as easy to secure more financing to buy another.

For Un, it is the secondary market that is going to struggle next year.

This is because there is a mismatch of perception between owner and buyer: the owner is positive the price of his house, even though it might be old, has climbed substantially but the buyer will not be willing to pay that price because he has an alternative to go to, which is the primary market to buy a new house.

Un agrees that banks are very careful when giving out loans these days. Instead of one valuation quote for the property, he says, most banks now demand for quotes from two valuers. “Valuers are very cautious. They are professionals, so I don’t think they are willing to give the offered price for a new housing area that has just been completed.

“Once a house is completed and the seller asks for a sky high price, the valuers will not justify his asking price.”

But says Un, even with the mismatch, the price of landed semi-detached properties and bungalows will not drop.

He reckons to have bought a house priced at more than RM1mil, the buyer would need an income of at least RM15,000 a month to qualify for the loan, and logically the buyer would have to be at least 28 years old to earn that kind of money. So at that age, he says, the buyer would probably have understood how borrowing costs work before making the purchase and would have the holding power.

“He will hold it until the market recovers,” he says.

Optimistic about the economy

Two weeks ago, Budget 2016 was tabled in Parliament.

With regards to housing, there was no change in the measures already in place to curb property speculation, such as real property gains tax (RPGT) rates and prohi­biting developers from offering the Developers Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS).

For Un, there was not a single exciting thing for the housing industry in the budget. But this is not unexpected, he says, because the industry was not anticipating any freebies or goodies anyway.

He says the measures implemented over the last two years have “somewhat worked” to cool down property prices “a bit”.

“For the government to do away with the RPGT or actually come back to DIBS now will create some kind of uproar among the public.

“I don’t think they want to be in the bad books of the public,” he says.

So naturally, he says, “affordable housing” was the main property sector element in the budget, devised to please the people.

Ahyat, however, has a more upbeat take on Budget 2016 for the housing sector.

He says while there was nothing big for the housing sector itself, there are huge plans for development and infrastructure.

He loves that RM5bil has been allocated to develop Malaysian Vision Valley and that RM7bil has been earmarked for developing a KL International Airport “Aeropolis”.

He feels “vindicated” that RM11bil is being pumped into Cybercity Centre in Cyberjaya because, while other investors shy away from Cyberjaya, he is one of the few who see potential there.

For him, the MRT II Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya line coming up, which will be completed in 2022; the LRT 3 line from Bandar Utama to Johan Setia, Klang, which will be ready in 2020; and the KL-Klang Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) are exciting. There are also plans to build new hospitals and upgrade airports, he points out.

He says these are clever ways to spur growth, although it does not solve the massive problem of spiralling house prices and income levels that do not rise as fast to keep up.

“The budget is not a magic tool to fix problems. It is the Government’s forecasted expenditure,” he says.

Ahyat says he likes to “sniff” at the direction of development.

“I follow the infrastructure and investment. The moment they talk about billions in development, I stop, take a look and follow the money (to invest).”

Gambero’s first impression when reading Budget 2016 was that it was like an “economic crisis budget” where “you keep low, try to find shelter, stay put and wait for the next year to pass”.

But after reading through it for the third time, he finds it a “pretty decent” populist budget.

It is good, he says, that Sabah and Sarawak are getting funds to complete their long-awaited Pan Borneo highway, and that there are incentives, subsidies, and tax exemptions in the budget that will put more money in the pockets of the people.

“Increasing the welfare of the bottom 60% of the rakyat will definitely spur, in the medium term, the housing market. They might find enough money to buy a long-awaited home.”

Gambero sees the Malaysian Vision Valley development as “just the opening chapter of a totally new history of infrastructure for the southern corridor” and he loves the BRT because, unlike trains, buses are flexible and can go anywhere.

For him, Malaysia’s economic fundamentals are in the right place.

He says the GDP is quite steady although this has decreased a bit, the unemployment rate is still very much under control, foreign reserves are still very high, the economy is still developing, and the current account balance is still positive even though crude oil prices have dropped.

He says most international agencies have given Malaysia a positive outlook even though Malaysians themselves like to “cry and look down on the country”.

“The worst thing right now is the political instability. That is not a small joke.

“We have this political uncertainty about the future. A lot of laymen are asking ‘what if’ and ‘what comes next’ and saying that ‘if the Opposition takes over, the country will be a mess’, and ‘if Umno keeps ruling the country there is a big question mark about the future’, and ‘who is going to rule Umno? Do you choose someone based on loyalty or capability?

Despite all this uncertainty, Gambero remains optimistic about the economy.

“We have to take shelter for the next three to six months, but some shy signs of recovery are already visible.

“It will be more visible after Chinese New Year. The general feeling is that after the Chinese New Year, consumer confidence will begin rising and the housing sector will start moving ahead again.”

He says Malaysia’s under-supply of houses is still high compared with general demand.

He points out that even though developers have been experien­cing negative sales in the last few months and that there are a number of uncompleted sales with buyers pulling out because of uncertainty and perception, developers are still not dropping prices.

“There has been a big fall in the number of transactions in property this year but prices are still stable. You don’t hear of prices dropping. Because demand is 10 to 20 times higher than the supply of homes.”

He reckons Malaysia has at least another seven to eight years of a “sparkling” property market.

By Shahanaaz Habid, The Star/|Asia News Network

Penang property in steady demand, will the housing market facing a glut?

Investment-friendly: A file picture shows visitors at the recent Star Property Fair in Penang. Affin Hwang believes that property developers with land bank and established presence in Penang will benefit from rising property demand.

PETALING JAYA: An increasing population in Penang coupled withlong-term property demand will be supported by major projects driven by public-private partnerships (PPPs), according to Affin Hwang Capital Research.

Among the PPP projects, the largest being the RM27bil Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP), could be awarded by September. Singapore’s Temasek Holdings also has a proposed joint venture with Penang Development Corp (PDC) to develop an RM11.3bil business process outsourcing centre and an international technology park.

The research house said in a report that its top stock picks for infrastructure and property exposure to Penang were Gamuda Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd, and Eastern & Oriental Bhd (E&O).

It said the Penang government had pushed for the economy to move up the value chain by encouraging knowledge-intensive and innovation-led manufacturing and services.

“Property development companies such as E&O, Eco World Development Group Bhd and Ewein Bhd are embarking on new large-scale mixed development projects in the state with total gross development value (GDV) of RM60bil,” it added.

E&O has the highest exposure to Penang with property development projects in the state comprising 77% of GDV totalling RM34bil. The multi-billion ringgit PTMP has seen keen interest, with six consortiums submitting bids to be the project delivery partner (PDP) while Affin Hwang Capital understands that discussions for the joint venture with PDC were in the final stages.

“The joint development agreement is expected to be inked in July or August. Work on the BPO Prime is expected to start in the first quarter of 2016.” The entry of Temasek would also attract more Singapore companies and other foreign investors to Penang.

“We believe Gamuda will likely be appointed the PDP for the project. Also, being one of the largest contractors in Penang, IJM Corp is expected to win a substantial portion of construction work for the PTMP,” it said.

“The Penang government also managed to convince Hewlett-Packard to choose Penang as the location to set up its new RM1bil manufacturing facility instead of Iskandar Malaysia.”

The plant would produce high-speed inkjet printer heads for the global market.

A ready pool of skilled workers out of a total workforce of 797,700, developed infrastructure, established information technology eco-system, and consistent and investment-friendly state government policies could be the reasons why Penang continue to be attractive compared with Iskandar Malaysia.

The island’s popularity with tourists, diverse culture, historical attractions, beautiful coasts and famous cuisine were added attractions.

“We believe property developers with land bank and established presence in Penang will benefit from rising property demand in the long run.

“Job creation from rising investments in industrial and service sectors should support population growth from organic expansion and inbound migration,” said Affin Hwang Capital Research.- The Star/Asian News Network

The housing market in Penang today

With an abundance of newly built high-rise condominiums, is Penang facing a property glut?

Malaysia’s population crossed the 30 million mark in February 2014. According to the Population and Housing Census 2010, about three in 10 people fall in the 20-40 years old age group – the one most likely to be firsttime home buyers. By 2020, that group is projected to grow to 11.3 million. In Penang, the current estimate for this age group is at 0.6 million, or 36% of the state population. The average property price in Penang currently stands at RM336,521. Even with the 50% stamp duty cut, middle-income earners with two dependents can only afford houses priced at RM300,000 and below [1], and looking at the current national average price for all types of properties, RM300,000 is well below the average (Figure 1).

Besides increasing prices, public concern is on whether or not the property market is overheated; many suspect that currently there is an oversupply of properties, especially in Penang. The current existing stock of residential properties can house more than six people per household (Table 1), and as smaller households are the global trend for developed and developing countries, statistics indicate that there is still a growing demand for housing.

Source: The Malaysian House Price Index Q1-Q2 2014, National Property Information Centre (NAPIC).

To meet market demands and expectations, a steady addition of incoming and planned supply to the existing property stock in Penang is still expected in the near future. Based on the population projection given by the Department of Statistics for Penang (1.75 million in year 2020), Malaysia Property Incorporated found that there is an oversupply of about 45,000 units this year and 22,000 units by 2020 [2], assuming that the average household size stays at 3.98 people and housing supply stops after 2015.

A growing demand for housing with a potential oversupply of properties sounds contradictory enough, begging the question: will the potential glut be for a certain type of residential property, and are the right kinds of properties being built in the right areas?

Whither the low-medium cost housing?

On Penang Island, the most densely populated district is in the north-east; the area encompassing George Town, Jelutong, Air Itam, Gelugor, Tanjung Tokong and Tanjung Bungah still remains one of the most sought-after places for property. Despite limited land spaces, incoming and planned unit supply to this district has seen no sign of abating.

However, in recent years, the south-west of the island, where the airport and the industrial area are located, has become the hottest investment spot for bigname developers. The highest growth of property supply on the island is expected to be in this area, with the likely addition of 17,518 incoming units (33.3%) and 17,058 planned units (32.4%).

Source: Property Market Report First Half 2014, NAPIC and own calculation.

On the mainland, the more populated central Seberang Perai (SP) is expected to see more new housing units in coming years, compared to north and south SP. The opening of the Second Penang Bridge and the announcement of a series of development projects in Batu Kawan, including IKEA and branch campuses of University of Hull and KDU University College, certainly give south SP a huge appeal for future housing development. So far, the housing demand there has not jumped markedly. However, as a prelude, following the announcement of the projects, land prices in south SP skyrocketed to between RM50 and RM60 per sqft, compared to previous prices of RM8 to RM9 per sqft [3].

Within the high-rise category, there is a trend of developers preferring to build higher value condominiums (Table 3). In coming years, especially on Penang Island, a higher proportion of new highrise units will come from condominiums. Although the construction of low cost flats is emphasised by both the federal government and the Penang state government, the supply of such units is slow and short in coming – at just half the number of the future supply for condominiums. The future supply of medium cost flats also cannot catch up with the supply rate and units of condominium, indicating that condominium sales seem more profitable for developers and that there may be an oversupply of higher value high-rise units in the near future.

Probably as the result of an influx of affluent local or foreign buyers, the supply for bungalows (detached) units has increased significantly. Service apartments have also become a new niche in the property market; the number of service apartment units is expected to double.

Source: Property Market Report First Half 2014, NAPIC and own calculation.

The island factor

Penang Island’s attractiveness as a place to invest or settle in can be seen from its property prices; one condominium unit on the island normally costs more than twice or thrice that on the mainland. The same goes for the price of landed properties (Table 3).

Although this tendency is likely to persist for some time, the number of residential property transactions slowed down on the island for the first three quarters of last year whereas property sales in SP were generally unaffected (Table 4). Due to market-cooling measures – i.e. the introduction of more stringent real property gains tax (RPGT) and maximum loan-to-value ratio for individual and non-individual borrowers – laid by the federal government and Bank Negara to curb property speculating, the upward price index trend for both landed properties and high-rise units slowed down significantly for the first half of 2014. Given that the number of sales was also at a lower level in the third quarter compared to the previous year, property prices on the island for the latter half of 2014 were probably stagnant.

Source: Residential Property Stock Table Q2 2014, NAPIC.

With the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) on April 1, firsttime home buyers may rush to make property purchases in the first quarter of 2015 to avoid paying the incremental cost. Although residential properties fall under the “Exempt Rated” basket of goods, property prices look set to increase due to the inflation cost of construction materials. According to a market survey, developers are facing ever higher compliance costs. Therefore, it is unlikely that house prices will drop this year when higher inflation is expected. Meanwhile, the “Youth Housing Scheme” announced in Budget 2015 may encourage young families from lower and middle income groups to make their first home purchase. Under the scheme, those who qualify and are selected will be given RM200 monthly financial assistance by the federal government to pay the loan instalments, 50% stamp duty exemption on loan and transfer agreements as well as 100% loan financing.

Source: Residential Property Stock Table Q2 2014, NAPIC.

Old is gold

Interest from investors in George Town’s pre-war heritage properties has never been greater since the city was inscribed as a Unesco World Heritage Site in 2008. Under the draft of the George Town Special Area Plan, there is a total of 4,665 buildings located within the core (50.2%) and buffer (49.8%) zones. Given the immense potential for capital appreciation or gain from investments, these heritage properties are in red-hot demand. With the booming tourism in George Town, many investors have transformed old, neglected heritage shop houses into boutique hotels or commercial premises.

Before the repeal of the Rent Control Act in 1999, there were very few transactions and the price index did not move much for properties situated within the conservation zones. Since then, the compound annual growth rate for such properties from 1999 to 2013 was at 12.7% [4]. For the first half of last year, the average price for pre-war properties in George Town registered a new highest record at RM1,300 per sqft.

Source: Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) and NAPIC.

Similarly, the number of pre-war property transactions also soared especially after 2008 (Figure 2). However, despite the new highest record of average transaction price, there were fewer property transactions last year; the Penang Real Estate Market Research Report on pre-war properties published by Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) [5] suggests that the prewar heritage property market has more buyers than it has sellers due to a limited supply of good listings. Because of this, the pre-war property market price could be very much distorted. For example, in March 2012, a 2,000sqft shop house along Lebuh Pantai (considered a prime heritage area) was sold at RM4mil (or RM2,000 per sqft) [6] – an isolated case but way above the average market price nonetheless.

Since the number of pre-war heritage buildings in the historic George Town is fixed and more than a thousand of such properties were transacted since 2008, the proportion of “sellable” properties in the market will shrink by year while market demand for such properties remains high. Hence, it is reasonably expected to see even steeper transaction prices and fewer transacted pre-war property units in years to come.

 By Lim Chee Han
Lim Chee Han received his PhD in Infection Biology from Hannover Medical School, Germany. He is a senior analyst in the economics section of Penang Institute.

Property prices in Malaysia to continue to increase, says REHDA

Property prices in Malaysia will continue to increase due to the supply and demand factor as well as the high land cost, according to Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) president Datuk Seri FD Iskandar Mansor.

Notably, the average annual housing completion stood at 100,000 compared to the average annual household formation of 140,000, revealed the National Property Information Centre.

According to Iskandar, who also serves as managing director and chief executive officer of Glomac Bhd, the public have the misconception that developers are responsible for the rising property prices.

He explained that it is impossible for developers to maintain or lower the selling price for new launches due to land cost and high conversion premium, which has recently increased by up to 300 percent.

He also noted that the cost of doing business has been expanding each year, and, unlike before, developers no longer enjoy the 30 percent profit margin.

In fact, developers now only make around 15 percent profit margin because of high development and infrastructure charges, compliance cost, stamp duty and quit rent.

Moreover, land is getting scarce and more expensive.

“In early 2007, when Glomac bought land nearby the Petronas Twin Towers, the seller asked for RM1,000 per square feet (psf) but we wanted to pay only RM600 psf. I knew what we wanted to build on it so we paid RM1,000 psf,” said Iskandar.

“Now, that same piece of land is worth RM3,500 psf and the value of the building has risen. Land cost has tripled in the last seven years.”

Source:

 
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Malaysia's property market to take a breather in 2014 and 2015

PETALING JAYA: The property market might need at least two years to digest and recover from the various cooling measures that came into effect this month, but expect it to surge again in 2016, say industry officials.

According to Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president Siva Shanker, 2014 is expected to be a tough year for sales, but the market will find its footing next year and catch the next upcycle in 2016.

“The market ground to a standstill after Budget 2014. There was a knee-jerk reaction in sales.

“It will probably stay in the doldrums for the first half of 2014. The second half may be better,” Shanker, who is also CEO-Agency of property consultancy PPC International Sdn Bhd, told StarBiz by phone.

Shanker believes that speculation over the past few years in the primary market, resulting in “far more properties bought than needed”, had been put to a stop by the new curbs.

“The days of 20%-40% appreciation in property prices after only a few years is over, ” he said.

Even so, Shanker sees the secondary market, which he said had languished for years, regaining its lustre.

“A new launch in Bangsar could set you back RM1,500 per sq ft, compared to RM800-RM1,000 per sq ft for an existing property. The discount goes up to 50% in some prime areas,” he said.

An analyst with TA Research said that unlike previous years, many listed developers have held back on their 2014 sales targets – a departure from their usual forward guidance in December – until a clearer picture emerges from the effects of Budget 2014 and other tightening measures.

The exception is Mah Sing Group Bhd, which is aiming for a 20% increase in sales this year to RM3.6bil.

According to the analyst, policy uncertainty on several fronts – such as whether Iskandar Malaysia’s Medini is exempt from real property gains tax, or the pricing of bank loans using the net selling price of a property – remains an overhang on the market.

“The sector’s fundamentals are intact, but in terms of share prices, the catalysts are lacking,” she said.
Property players have noticed a marked slowdown in sales since the various curbs were put in place, although it is unclear by how much.

A number of high-end launches were also shelved, as developers switch their focus to the affordable segment of the market, where demand is more resilient.

Some of the projects launched post-Budget 2014 include block B of YTL Land & Development Bhd’s Fennel@Sentul East condominiums, which saw a take-up of 80% soon after it was opened for sale in mid-November, while tower A and B of Sunway Bhd’s Geo Residences were 85% sold within two weeks, HwangDBS Vickers Research noted.

In Iskandar Malaysia, however, the response to UEM Sunrise Bhd’s Almas Suites and WCT Holdings Bhd’s Medini Signature Tower 2 have been lukewarm, Maybank Research said in a report last week.

The brokerage’s only “buy” call is Glomac Bhd, even though the firm has cut its own sales target for the year ending April 30, 2014 by 18%.

CIMB Research is more upbeat. It expects buying interest to return in the first half of this year, albeit gradually, when potential homeowners realise that prices are unlikely to fall, and that inflationary pressure from the impending goods and services tax, along with other subsidy cuts, leads to higher prices.

“As these macro prudential and policy measures are meant to curb speculation and not restrain genuine demand, the impact (though negative in the short term) should be positive over the longer run because they should help to remove froth from some segments of the market.

“Also, affordability remains close to its highest ever. Robust sales by developers should provide impetus for a re-rating of property stocks,” the research house told clients earlier this month.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, which believes the market will stage a recovery in the second half of the year, advocates a buy-on-weakness strategy for shares amid trough valuations.

Contributed by John Loh The Star/Asia News Network

Malaysian property sector no immediate bubble risk

PETALING JAYA: The Malaysian property sector is not in any immediate risk of experiencing a bubble, according to property consultant CBRE Malaysia executive chairman Chris Boyd.

He said despite rising residential property prices, houses in Malaysia were still among the cheapest in the region.

“Residential property prices increased at a constant pace in Malaysia until 2009, but have been accelerating until recently.

“However, prices are not as volatile as those observed in Hong Kong and Singapore,” he said in a presentation during the 16th National Housing and Property Summit 2013.

“In comparison with selected Asian luxury residential prices, Kuala Lumpur remains one of the cheapest cities in the region,” said Boyd.

According to him, the average luxury residential property in Hong Kong costs nearly US$3,000 (RM10,200) per sq ft, compared with US$250 (RM850) per sq ft in Kuala Lumpur.

He pointed out that to overcome the issue of rising property prices, the Government had launched two schemes to make houses affordable, namely the Malaysia My First Home Scheme, which was introduced in 2011, and the 1Malaysia Housing Programme, which came into effect in 2012.

Meanwhile, Universiti Putra Malaysia Housing Research Centre professor Datuk Abang Abdullah Abang Ali said the recent Government initiatives were addressing the issue of rising prices but added that it was not clear if that was enough.

He said artificial increase in prices would create a bubble, noting that there was a serious mismatch between income and property prices, especially in the Klang Valley.

“This indicates that affordable homes are not being built to cater to the general market and most buyers in the Klang Valley are likely to be investors or speculators.

“As market prices head for a correction and speculation decreases, there may be an oversupply of properties above RM550,000.”

Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Minister Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan, in his opening speech, said the Government had to mitigate excessive investment and speculative activity in the property market so as to prevent a property bubble.

“Moving forward, the Government would not hesitate to further tighten the fiscal policies in order to curb property speculation and ensure reasonable and affordable property prices in the country.”

Abdul Rahman said the low real property gains tax, which was increased from 5% to 15% last year, had not been effective in preventing the increase in house prices.

Contributed by EUGENE MAHALINGAM  The Star/Asia News Network

Malaysian property market sentiment after GE13

With the dust having settled after the 13th General Elections, all eyes are now on the freshly elected government for strategies for the real estate sector.

While other issues such as increasing the minimum purchase price for foreign buyers and reducing lending rates and stamp duties are also on the wish list of most Malaysians, latest figures released by PropertyGuru Group highlighted a continuing call for the government to address the issue of home affordability.

In the latest Property Sentiment Survey (Q2 2013) by the leading online property group, 76% feel that the government is not doing enough to curb the current price increase. This is more acutely felt in regions that have experienced a high foreign demand for residential properties, namely Johor (69%) and Kuala Lumpur (81%).

While 35% out of the total of 851 respondents claim that the outlook of the local property market will remain positive, four in five expect prices to increase further in the next six months.

Respondents also seem to favour stricter market restrictions on property ownership by foreigners, with nearly half supporting an increase in the minimum purchase price from RM500,000 to RM1 million for overseas buyers and investors wanting to buy properties in Penang and Johor.

Despite the growth in price, 74% of respondents intend to buy at least one property type (either residential or commercial) within the next six months, an increase of 10% as compared to the previous quarter. This is because of the perception that the more expensive a property becomes, the higher capital appreciation it will bring in the long term.

“There is a dilemma at play for Malaysians. As they see property prices spiral up, they also see their assets appreciating in value. But in the long term, they are also finding it more challenging to own properties,” Added Value Singapore managing director Raymond Ng says.

“Affordability is also a bigger concern for the younger adult population. There is no doubt that there are enough local funds to fuel the market and allow the government to control prices a bit better without relying on foreign investments. The challenge is finding the sweet spot that will entice locals to invest locally while not turning away all foreign investments.”

The survey was conducted by PropertyGuru Group in collaboration with Added Value-Saffron Hill, a Singapore-based independent professional research agency.

Conducted since 2010, it is the only independent local survey to measure property sentiments and expectations about the property market amongst Malaysians.

It is also carried out across the group’s four key target markets of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, attracting 4,062 online respondents aged 21 to 69 who are influencers or decision makers on property.

“The results are consistent with figures from previous quarters where 75% of Malaysians find property to be expensive.

Kho says Malaysians want more affordable homes and are looking to the government to deliver. 

“The message is clear; Malaysians want more affordable homes and are looking to the government to deliver. PR1MA is a step in the right direction, but Malaysians want more measures and existing measures to be expedited, PropertyGuru.com Malaysia country manager Gerard Kho says.

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Penang residential prices to rise 8%

RESIDENTIAL property prices in Penang are likely to rise by 7% to 8% by the first half of 2013 due to the steady demand and a stronger gross domestic product (GDP) projection for 2013.

< Geh says new properties launched with a bundled-up financial package would be most popular.

According to the latest Finance Ministry report, the GDP forecast for 2013 is between 4.5% and 5.5%, riding on the growth in the agriculture, construction, mining, manufacturing, and services sectors.

Raine & Horne Malaysia director Michael Geh says new properties launched with a bundled-up financial package would be most popular.

“This is why this segment will perform better than those properties in the sub-sales market, where the buyer and seller have to do more paper work,” he says.

Saw says harder loans may be cause of lower volume.>

Currently, the price for terraced property in prime locations such as Tanjung Bungah and Tanjung Tokong is around RM1.2mil to RM1.5mil.

The selling price of development land in prime locations ranges between RM450 and RM1,000 per sq ft.

“The stringent guidelines for housing loan, now based on the evaluation of net income rather than on gross income and the difficulty in obtaining the desired valuation report will mean that the sales of condominiums in the secondary market will face more challenges,” he says.

The new guidelines from the Penang government for foreign purchasers to buy only high-rise and landed properties priced from RM1mil and RM2mil respectively will impact adversely on foreign property transactions in Penang, according to Geh.

“More foreigners will prefer to rent than to buy, thus one can expect rental yield in the state to increase gradually,” he adds.

According to the latest National Property Information Centre's (Napic) property market report, total transactions for residential properties in Penang hit around 18,316 for the first nine months of 2012, with a transacted value of RM5.2bil.

The whole of 2011 saw the state registering some 30,674 residential property transactions valued at RM7.7bil.

Geh says the total volume of property transacted for 2012 was unlikely to catch up with 2011's.

“That the total value of property transactions has risen although the volume transacted has decreased is not surprising, as this is normally the trend,” he adds.

PPC International Sdn Bhd director Mark Saw says the lower volume of transactions may be because housing loans are harder to obtain nowadays.

“Another reason could be that the preferred choice of properties might not be available,” he says.

Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents deputy president Siva Shanker says Malaysia is unique as property prices have not dropped following the decline in transactions.

“In fact property prices will hold and then shoot up when times are good again,” he says.

Penang Master Builders & Building Materials Dealers Association president Lim Kai Seng says construction cost will likely be maintained in the first quarter of 2013.

“Although sand prices have gone up, the smaller volume of construction jobs available is offseting the impact of rising sand prices.

”Due to the competition for jobs, construction cost will be maintained,” he says.

The price of sand per load of 30 tonnes is around RM1,200, compared to about RM800 in early 2012.

Since the price of cement went up in August, the cost of construction has increased by about 3%, Lim says.