Startups can apply for seed financing from S’pore fund

LuneX to provide funding to blockchain firms based in Malaysia

“Together with MAVCAP, we are actively looking for Malaysian-based blockchain startups, particularly in the early stage"

 - LuneX Ventures founding partner Kenrick Drijkoningen

 Meanwhile, MAVCAP CEO Shahril Anas said with blockchain technology being increasingly adopted in Malaysia, the VC firm saw the opportunity to increase availability of funding for innovative start-ups in this space and invested in LuneX.

PETALING JAYA: Blockchain startups based in Malaysia can apply for growth funding from LuneX Ventures (LuneX), a Singapore-based dedicated blockchain and cryptocurrency fund.

Launched in 2018, LuneX partners Golden Gate Ventures, a venture capital firm that invests across South-East Asia.

Government-backed Malaysia Venture Capital Management Bhd (MAVCAP), the country’s largest venture capital (VC) firm, also invested in LuneX in 2019.

“Together with MAVCAP, we are actively looking for Malaysian-based blockchain startups, particularly in the early stage, to back and grow, ” said LuneX Ventures founding partner Kenrick Drijkoningen, noting that Malaysia has a lot of tech talent and a relatively young population picking up new trends rapidly.

“In Malaysia, we see the crypto finance movement being adopted by young people in droves, meaning for many of these products, there is a large market to find product market fit, ” he added.

Drijkoningen also pointed out there were bright prospects for blockchain start-ups in Malaysia as the country has a very open economy with a lot of cross border movement and finance - areas that blockchain technology will make significantly more efficient in years to come.

LuneX usually invests at the seed stage of financing, meaning the company is raising anywhere from US$100,000 to a few million dollars.

LuneX looks at whether the blockchain start-ups fits its investment thesis and the size of the markets they are operating in, in addition to the experience and passion of the founding teams.

“The best entrepreneurs are those who are able to pivot quickly if they see changing market conditions, ” said Drijkoningen.

He added that an oft-overlooked criteria is whether there is good working chemistry between the blockchain start-up and LuneX.

“An investment is very much a long-term commitment and working with each other should be productive, fun and an overall good experience for both parties, ” he said.

Drijkoningen said South-East Asia has boomed as a start-up ecosystem over the past 10 years and LuneX aims to ensure it also develops as a leading region for blockchain start-ups.

He recalled that while the blockchain ecosystem was heating up in 2017, there was no dedicated VC fund in South-East Asia specialising in the industry.

With this knowledge gap at traditional venture capital companies, it was hard for blockchain entrepreneurs to raise equity financing. Thus, tapping on the emerging blockchain ecosystem in South-East Asia, LuneX invests in blockchain and cryptocurrency-related early stage start-ups, as well as application tokens, protocol tokens, app coins andother digital and cryptofinance technology.

LuneX has a portfolio that is diversified across tokens in key players like Ethereum, Terra and Kyber; to equity in crypto finance infrastructural companies like Propine (custody), Merklescience (AML solution), Sparrow (Exchange) as well as blockchain application technology like Accredify and Keyless.

Other companies LuneX has invested in include Fleek, Stakewith.us, DEXTF, Blue Wallet, Accredify and Bank of Hodlers.

Drijkoningen said LuneX draws on a wide network to support its portfolio companies and help with business strategy, hiring, marketing and fund raising.

“Specific examples include placing senior management, working on a rebrand, introducing new round lead investors and helping prepare pitch decks, ” he said.

According to Drijkoningen, the Covid-19 pandemic has been positive for digital transformation and growth in blockchain and crypto finance has accelerated, as more things need to be done digitally.

“That being said, it has been more difficult to make investment decisions, as we do prefer to meet people in person, visit their office and spend some time socially.

“Nonetheless, we are in active talks with a number of start-ups and will continue to seek out opportunities to expand our portfolio, ” he said.

Regarding LuneX’s partnership with MAVCAP, Drijkoningen said both companies share similar long-term views and look to grow the industry together.

“MAVCAP has an amazing reputation and this helps with finding great talent and companies and providing them with the resources needed to succeed.

“Also, MAVCAP really understands how the future of finance, fintech and blockchain are merging into a new era of innovation, ” he said.

Meanwhile, MAVCAP CEO Shahril Anas said with blockchain technology being increasingly adopted in Malaysia, the VC firm saw the opportunity to increase availability of funding for innovative start-ups in this space and invested in LuneX.

“With our participation in this fund, we can provide greater opportunities for Malaysians entrepreneurs with innovative blockchain-based solutions, combining the expertise of LuneX in the blockchain industry with MAVCAP’s track record and deep knowledge of the local VC ecosystem, ” said Shahril.

He noted that LuneX has a wealth ofexperience in blockchain, which for MAVCAP is an uncharted sector.

“We are able to tap into the knowledge and experience of LuneX to provide training and actively engage with industry players, including regulatory bodies and start-ups, to create a conducive and secure blockchain framework for Malaysia.

“Also, our local VC talent pool gains technical know-how to be able to identify local start-ups with good potential and make investments in this sector, ” said Shahril.

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Asia’s Journey at 60, what does independence mean, the promise & perils

What does Independence mean for former colonies

Singapore is the exemplar that pulled itself into the ranks of advanced income status by sheer grit and determination.ST PHOTO: LIM YAOHUI

How its leaders forge cohesion, heal social wounds will be true test of maturity in next 60 years

ON SEPT 16, Malaysia celebrates her 57th national day, having celebrated on Aug 31 the 63rd anniversary of independence from Britain in 1957.

What does Independence mean for former colonies?

It means that a nation is free to choose its own future independent from imperial influence. Lest we forget, colonisation in Asia arrived in the 16th century with Portuguese, Dutch and British pirateers who came, saw and conquered. They did this in the name of their king and Christianity, but it was mostly for their own well-being.

No statistic illustrates this better than the stark fact that India before colonisation in 1700 accounted for 24.4% of world GDP (Maddison, 2007) and by independence in 1947, her share was down to only 4.2% in 1950. Of course, the British left behind the English language, the rule of law and a durable administrative structure that is still being practised in many former colonies.

We should also be grateful that decolonisation (shedding of empires by the European powers) was encouraged by the post-war American administration, which basically did not want any challenges to her dominant status, British cousins or not. The result was that Hong Kong was the last of the colonies to lose her status in 1997. Considering that some Hong Kongers are still waving the Union Jack, colonial nostalgia has not lost all its fans

What matters is what the newly independent countries achieved with their sovereignty. Singapore is the exemplar that pulled herself into the ranks of advanced income status by sheer grit and determination, having almost no natural resources. Myanmar, on the other hand, was richly endowed with natural resources and had one of the best educated elites at independence in 1948. Ruled mostly by the military junta, her growth has been stunted relative to her neighbours.

The Asian Development Bank has just published an excellent book on Asia’s Journey to Prosperity, commemorating 50+ years of its establishment in 1966. The book tracked Asia’s transformation from a post-colonial era of essentially rural Asia to today’s urban and technologically driven region that accounts for roughly half of global growth.

Seen from a 60-year cycle, Asia’s transformation has been world-shattering. In 1960, Developing Asia (ex-Japan) accounted for only 4.1% of world GDP, measured in constant 2010 USD terms. That year, the EU accounted for 36.2% and the United States 30.6% respectively, together 18 times larger.

Japan was already a developed country with 7.0% of world GDP. By 2018, Developing Asia’s share increased six times to 24.0%, on par with the EU (23.2%) and the US (23.9%). This means that including Japan, Asia accounted for 31.5% of world GDP. The global GDP shares for Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and rest of the world were essentially unchanged in the last half century.

In other words, the loss in share of world GDP by Europe and the US between 1960-2018 was largely gained by Developing Asia, of which China was in its own class. China’s GDP grew 84 times over this period, whereas the other three Asian dragons, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, grew between 55 to 58 times. By comparison, over the same period, OECD countries, including Japan and Australia, basically grew eight times. Malaysia is in the upper pack, having grown by 35 times.

The secrets of Asia’s successful transformation deserve repeating. During this period, there was peace and general political stability, with Asian governments being fiscally prudent and willing to invest in infrastructure and people. Asia did not follow the “import substitution” model adopted in Latin America but adopted the Japanese export industrialization route. Development essentially came from a young growing population that shifted out of rural agriculture into urban centres, with pragmatic governments working hand-in-hand with markets to create jobs in new industries and services.

This raised the savings and investment levels significantly above that of the rest of the world. The state took care of macroeconomic stability, education, health and infrastructure, preparing the labour force for foreign and domestic enterprises to propell exports and growth.

Those economies that were most open to technology and innovation, including welcoming foreign investment, grew fastest. Initially, income distribution improved, but in recent years, income and wealth inequalities have widened. Furthermore, climate change issues in terms of weather change, impact on water, food and increasing natural disasters are rising in the social agenda. The geopolitical temperature has also risen with the West feeling more insecure.

Currently, China’s rise is seen as the main geopolitical rival for the West, since she is the West’s largest market, biggest supplier, toughest competitor and rival political model. But not far behind China are India and Asean, both with a culturally diverse, younger population, totalling two billion people and a US$5.8 trillion GDP, about to enter into technologically driven, middle-class income levels.

Both South and South-East Asia are about to enjoy the same demographic dividend as China, but it will take competent governments to ensure that the rise to middle and advanced income will be accompanied by good jobs and fair distribution, particularly in the face of growing protectionism, and decoupling in technology and supply chains.

Asia’s growth must be in cooperation with the West, socially, commercially and technologically. But the greatest risks are the neo-con hawks in the West who are willing to risk war to disrupt Asia’s rise.

Put simply, if Asian growth stalls, the world will lose its growth engine.

The rise of Asia for the rest of the century is neither destiny nor pre-ordained. The West will not sit by to see its leadership erode. But as McKinsey’s useful analyses on the Future of Asia opined, “The question is no longer how quickly Asia will rise; it is how Asia will lead.” Leading in a culturally diverse and complex world is not about fighting, but about how to work together, meaning competing and cooperating at the same time. The greatest Asian divide is not technology, but social polarisation driven by race, gender, religion, ideology and health/wealth inequalities, all exposed brutally by the pandemic.

How a new generation of Asian leaders heal these social wounds and move forward without fragmentation and fighting will be the true test of Asia’s maturity in the next 60-year cycle.

Andrew Sheng is a Distinguished Fellow of Fung Global Institute, a global think tank based in Hong Kong. The views expressed here are his own.

Asia News Network

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TikTok Owner ByteDance to Spend Billions in Singapore After U.S. Ban

TikTok is the most downloaded app of 2020, as quarantines have spurred more and more users to hop onboard and learn about the latest dance trends and memes. But the app also faces a slew of regulatory hurdles, privacy concerns, and allegations of censorship, issues experts say will be new CEO Kevin Mayer’s top priority.

Bill Gates Says U.S. Data From TikTok Safe With Microsoft

Jul.07 -- President Donald Trump says he is considering banning TikTok in the U.S. over threats to national security as tensions continue to rise with China. Bloomberg’s Selina Wang reports on “Bloomberg Markets: China Open.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-09-11/tiktok-owner-to-spend-billions-in-singapore-video >

• ByteDance looks to add hundreds of jobs in the nation: people
• Chinese company wants Singapore to be base for rest of Asia

ByteDance Ltd., the Chinese owner of video-sharing app TikTok, is planning to make Singapore its beachhead for the rest of Asia as part of its global expansion, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Beijing-based company is looking to spend several billion dollars and add hundreds of jobs over the next three years in the city-state, where it has applied for a license to operate a digital bank, said the people, who asked not to be identified because of confidentiality.

The investment would come at a crucial time as the technology firm is forced to sell TikTok operations in the U.S. under pressure by the Trump administration.

ByteDance, the world’s most richly valued startup, is plowing ahead with plans to take its social media services deeper into Asia after setbacks in India and the U.K. as well as the U.S.

The internet phenomenon controlled by billionaire Zhang Yiming has long eyed Southeast Asia’s 650 million increasingly smartphone-savvy population, a region where Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. are also making inroads.

Read how TikTok becomes part of U.S.-China flashpoints

The plans for Singapore include establishment of a data center, the people said. Its operations there include TikTok and Lark, an enterprise software business.

ByteDance currently has more than 200 job openings in Singapore, for positions in everything from payments to e-commerce and data privacy, according to its job referral site.

The company already has 400 employees working on technology, sales and marketing in the city-state, one of the people said.

A ByteDance representative offered no comment.

Shopping Spree

Southeast Asia's e-commerce is on track to top $150 billion in 2025

2015 $:5.5B 2019: $38.2B 2025: $153B

Source: Google & Temasek / Bain, e-Conomy SEA 2019

Gross merchandise value

Southeast Asia is rapidly evolving into a critical location for China’s largest tech corporations from Alibaba to Tencent in the face of growing hostility from the U.S. and other major developed markets. Singapore is becoming a regional base for both Western and Chinese companies because of its developed financial and legal system, and as Beijing tightens its grip on Hong Kong.

“Singapore is highly attractive to tech firms looking for a hub to address the Southeast Asian markets due to geographic proximity,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Vey-Sern Ling.

“The workforce is highly educated, tech savvy and multilingual.”

In China, ByteDance also runs news aggregation app Toutiao, and TikTok’s Chinese twin Douyin. Collectively its stable of products have more than 1.5 billion monthly active users.

ByteDance is said to have generated more than $3 billion of net profit on more than $17 billion of revenue in 2019.

U.S. Deadline

Asia is a growth area for the company, especially when it is increasingly likely to miss the U.S. government’s deadline for the sale of its TikTok U.S. operations. President Donald Trump said Thursday he won’t extend his Sept. 15 deadline for the deal.

In India, TikTok is among more than a hundred Chinese-made consumer apps that are banned by the government on concerns about security. SoftBank Group Corp. is exploring gathering a group of bidders for TikTok’s India assets.

The U.K. government will likely ban TikTok from moving local user data out of the country, Bloomberg News has reported.

Gateway

Singapore, in particular, offers ByteDance the opportunity to explore an area it’s had relatively little exposure to. The company is leading a consortium that has applied for a digital-bank license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Other members of that group includes a private investment firm owned by a member of the Lee family that founded Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

The regulator will award as many as five such permits to non-banks by December. Ant Group and Tencent-backed Sea Ltd. have also applied. The city-state offers a potential gateway to the rest of Southeast Asia, where the digital lending market may reach $110 billion by 2025, according to a report by Bain & Co., Google and Temasek Holdings Pte.

(Updates with details from penultimate paragraph)

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Chinese varsities hold seven top spots in world ranking

Beijing: Universities from the Chinese mainland have secured seven of the top 10 positions in the Times Higher Education’s Emerging Economies University Rankings 2020 for the third straight year.

Tsinghua University maintained its position at the top in the listing of institutions from emerging economies.

Peking University was in second place for the second year running.

Zhejiang University and the University of Science and Technology of China remain in third and fourth place, while Shanghai Jiao Tong University climbed from eighth to sixth. Fudan University was listed in seventh place, while Nanjing University was ninth.

Other institutions in the top 10 include Moscow State University (fifth), National Taiwan University (eighth), and The University of Cape Town (10th).

Phil Baty, chief knowledge officer at Times Higher Education, said: “China’s success in our Emerging Economies University Rankings reflects its rapid rise on the world higher education stage. With the Double First Class Initiative driving improvements across participant universities, we expect it to continue to establish itself as a major global player in providing world-class higher education over the coming years.”

The Double First-Class Initiative refers to fostering “world-class universities” and “world-class discipline”. — China Daily/ANN

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AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order; Singapore tries its own path in clash

THE NEW YORK TIMES , USA TODAY , AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee—one of the world’s most respected experts on AI and China—reveals that China has suddenly caught up to the US at an astonishingly rapid and unexpected pace.  

In AI Superpowers, Kai-fu Lee argues powerfully that because of these unprecedented developments in AI, dramatic changes will be happening much sooner than many of us expected. Indeed, as the US-Sino AI competition begins to heat up, Lee urges the US and China to both accept and to embrace the great responsibilities that come with significant technological power. Most experts already say that AI will have a devastating impact on blue-collar jobs. But Lee predicts that Chinese and American AI will have a strong impact on white-collar jobs as well. Is universal basic income the solution? In Lee’s opinion, probably not.  But he provides  a clear description of which jobs will be affected and how soon, which jobs can be enhanced with AI, and most importantly, how we can provide solutions to some of the most profound changes in human history that are coming soon.
 

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Singapore tries to find its own path in clash of AI superpowers ...

SINGAPORE (Sept 4): The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is chilling global collaboration that has long driven breakthroughs in technology and science. The tiny island nation of Singapore is trying to carve out an independent role in the clash and demonstrate the advantages of cooperation in fields like artificial intelligence.

It’s a difficult balancing act. The country, with cordial ties to the two superpowers, is fighting against nationalistic forces on both sides. Artificial intelligence is becoming something of a test case for how independent countries will participate in emerging technologies.

China and the U.S. have dominated AI development, raising concerns that other countries will lose out on its benefits and have no voice in devising regulations. Yet Singapore’s government is investing S$500 million (US$360 million) on AI and other digital technologies through 2020 and has attracted Chinese and American companies to the country with policies that support AI research. Singapore’s Communications and Information Minister S. Iswaran jumped into the debate this year, proposing a framework for the ethical use of AI at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“Singapore has an important role to play,” said Lawrence Loh, an associate professor at NUS Business School. “We will never be able to match the technological prowess of the U.S. and China, but there are certain areas where Singapore can take leadership, like using its position to get people to work together.”

Iswaran will elaborate on Singapore’s vision at Bloomberg’s "Sooner Than You Think" technology conference on Thursday. He will kick off an event that will feature speakers from Microsoft Corp, International Business Machines Corp, Temasek Holdings Pte, China AI pioneer SenseTime Group Ltd, as well as Southeast Asia’s leading tech startups Grab Holdings Inc and Gojek.

Singapore has long positioned itself as neutral ground. It’s already home to the Singapore International Arbitration Centre and the Singapore International Commercial Court, forums for international dispute resolution. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual policy speech last month that Singapore will maintain its neutral position and not take sides between the U.S. and China.

The affluent city-state of 5.6 million is not leaving anything to chance, when it comes to future-proofing its economy.

It has set up a dedicated inter-agency task force to study all aspects of AI. And in recent weeks, it granted an AI patent to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd within just three months — a record pace that underlines the country’s determination to move full speed ahead.

“Singapore plays a pivotal role as it facilitates our entry into markets of our interest rapidly,” Benjamin Bai, vice president and chief IP counsel of Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial, said in a statement released by the Intellectual Property Office of Singapore.

Still, there is skepticism about the country’s prospects. Singapore, like several other countries, is making a genuine push to develop its AI ecosystem, but its effort is tiny compared with the giants, said Kai-Fu Lee, founder of the venture firm Sinovation Ventures.

“Unless Singapore can unify ASEAN and become the undisputed AI leader and supplier in ASEAN countries, its efforts will not lead to a fraction of the U.S. or China,” Lee said in an email.

The government has been stepping up efforts to lure companies working in AI.

Alibaba has opened its first joint research institute outside China in Singapore in collaboration with Nanyang Technological University, while Salesforce.com Inc opened its first AI research centre outside of its research and development hub of Palo Alto, California — adding to a growing list of new research centers including the Singapore Management University’s Centre for AI and Data Governance.

GIC Pte, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, has invested in Canadian AI companies, including Montreal-based Element AI Inc, which has set up an office in the city-state after raising US$102 million in new funding in 2017.

“It’s very hard to see how things will pan out with the trade war,” NUS Business School’s Loh said. “Singapore’s focus should be technology, not geopolitics.”  

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Singapore growth forecast down to 1%

Unknown future: As Singapore further cut its growth forecast, New Zealand, India and Thailand also cut their interest rates signalling concerns on growth outlook. — AFP

SINGAPORE: Singapore slashed its full-year economic growth forecast as global conditions were seen worsening and data confirmed the slowest growth rate in a decade amid mounting fears of recession in the city-state.

The government cut its forecast range for gross domestic product in Singapore – often seen as a bellwether for global growth because international trade dwarfs its domestic economy – to zero to 1% from its previous 1.5%-2.5% projection.

Singapore’s downgrade adds to concerns globally about the effect of increasing protectionism on exports and production.

The deterioration in the global outlook has pushed central banks to cut interest rates and consider unconventional stimulus to shield their economies.

“GDP growth in many of Singapore’s key final demand markets in the second half of 2019 is expected to slow from, or remain similar to, that recorded in the first half, ” the trade ministry said in a statement to the media yesterday.

The ministry flagged a host of growing economic risks including Hong Kong’s political situation, the Japan-Korea trade dispute, the Sino-US tariff war, slowing growth in China and Brexit.

Final second quarter GDP data yesterday showed a 3.3% on-quarter contraction on a seasonally-adjusted annualised basis. That was slightly smaller than the 3.4% decline seen in the government’s advance estimate but deeper than a 2.9% fall predicted in a Reuters poll and a sharp contrast to the robust 3.8% first quarter expansion, which was driven by brisk construction activity.

Yesterday’s data also confirmed annual GDP expanded 0.1% in April-June from a year earlier, its slowest rate in a decade, and lower than poll expectations of 0.2% and the first quarter’s 1.1%.

Singapore’s benchmark stock index fell 1.2% to a two-month low in early trade, underperforming other bourses in the region.

Singapore has been hit hard by the Sino-US trade war, which has disrupted world supply chains in a blow to business investment and corporate profits.

Also yesterday, Singapore cut its full-year forecast for non-oil domestic exports to a 9% contraction from an 8% fall previously.

That comes after a 26.9% drop in electronics exports in the second quarter year-on-year.

“With trade tensions between the US-China unlikely to abate anytime soon, we expect exports and trade-related services to push the economy into technical recession in Q3, ” said Sian Fenner, lead Asia economist at Oxford Economics.

New Zealand, India and Thailand all cut interest rates last week, signalling major concerns about the outlook for economic growth. Last month, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2008.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an annual speech last week that the government stood ready to stimulate the economy.

“It feels like the storm is coming if you look at the whole macro economic fundamentals softening, ” said Selena Ling, head of treasury and strategy at OCBC Bank.

“All the downside risks are piling up on one side, ” Ling added, pointing to the myriad of global risks flagged in the trade ministry statement. — Reuters

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• Shock contraction in quarterly GDP raises risk of job losses
• Officials already grappling with aging, productivity threats

Singapore’s economic data have gone from bad to worse this month. Exports slumped to their second-worst rate since the global financial crisis, the purchasing managers index slipped into contraction for the first time since 2016, and the economy shrank the most in almost seven years in the second quarter.

After spending much of early 2019 enjoying relative resilience, a recession is now looming. That’s a warning shot for regional and global economies, since Singapore’s heavy reliance on trade makes it somewhat of a bellwether for the rest of Asia.

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The severity of the slump may be down to trade tensions and a global slowdown, but Singapore has been grappling with longstanding economic threats that have been slowly eroding the city state’s growth potential: rapid aging, labor market shrinkage, and sluggish productivity among them. Those risks will become more acute for policy makers now.

“Any undue turbulence or prolonged stresses from the trade war are only going to compound the challenges of all the other issues -- productivity, demographics, anything else,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics & strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “External demand concerns will be at the top of the list for now, because if you don’t get that one right it’s that much more difficult to solve everything else.”

Singapore remains one of the most export-reliant economies in the world, with trade equivalent to 326% of gross domestic product, according to World Bank data. That puts the city state at the center of the storm stirred up by its top two trading partners sparring over tariffs.

The shock GDP figures earlier this month prompted some analysts to downgrade their Singapore forecasts for the year to below 1%. The government is set to revisit its own 1.5%-2.5% range next month, but for now, it’s remaining calm, seeing no recession for the full year.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say...

“Barring a swift rapprochement in U.S.-China trade relations, our forecast for a 0.2% year-on-year contraction in Singapore in 2019 remains on course.

The government has ample firepower to cushion the blow, but it may not be enough to avoid a recession.”

-Tamara Henderson, Asean economist

The slump is largely contained so far to manufacturing, which makes up about a fifth of the economy, but could soon spread to other sectors such as retail and financial services. That increases the risk of job losses at a time when businesses like International Business Machines Corp. are already laying off workers and banks such as Nomura Holdings Inc. cut staff.

The number of retrenched workers in Singapore rose to the highest in more than a year in the first quarter, though the unemployment rate has remained fairly steady at 2.2% amid a recovery in construction.

“The labor market looks to be on two tracks at the moment -- there’s a weak market in the manufacturing sector but a steady one in the services sector,” said Shaun Roache, chief Asia-Pacific economist at S&P Global Ratings in Singapore. “High-frequency indicators including industrial production and trade suggest that the environment will remain challenging in manufacturing for the year.”

While those cyclical headwinds buffer the outlook, policy makers are also grappling with structural impediments to growth.

An employee clears tables at a food center in Singapore.

Faced with a rapidly aging population, the government has been on an aggressive campaign to re-skill its labor force and prepare workers for a postponed retirement. The median age is set to rise to 46.8 years in 2030 from 39.7 in 2015, faster than the other top economies in Southeast Asia as well as the world as a whole, according to United Nations projections.

Tied to its rapid aging is Singapore’s productivity conundrum.

As the labor pool shrinks and gets older, the city state’s answer to the productivity challenge has been to automate and digitize. With an ambition to become a “Smart Nation,” the government has poured money and energy into digitization projects of all kinds, from helping seniors fine-tune smartphone skills at digital clinics to attracting financial technology giants to set up shop and test their ideas.

It’s that technological advancement, along with its world-beating infrastructure and efficiency, that continues to make Singapore attractive to businesses like Dyson Ltd., the U.K. manufacturer that picked the city state for its location to build its first electric cars. It’s also a reason why officials are confident Singapore can meet its foreign investment targets for this year.

“They’re saying the right thing, doing the right thing,” said Edward Lee, chief economist for South and Southeast Asia at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore, who has penciled in 1% growth for 2019. “Retraining, ongoing structural reforms on the labor side -- those are the right things.”

By Michelle Jamrisko, Bloomberg

 — With assistance by Cynthia Li

(Adds economist comment in 10th paragraph.)

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Recession fears hit Asian region including Singapore

Malaysia may, to a certain extent, be less vulnerable with the revival of major construction projects which in view of the country’s strained finances, have been shrunk to cut costs. The Singapore economy may undergo a “shallow, technical recession” in the third quarter.

TALK of recession has hit the region, and near home, Maybank Kim Eng Research is flagging that possibility for Singapore in the next quarter.

Export-reliant economies are hard hit by slowing growth and supply chain disruptions caused by the prolonged US-China trade and tech war.

There may be a ceasefire now in the fight between the US and China following talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 Summit in Osaka last Saturday.

Existing US tariffs on Chinese imports still remain; additional tariffs on the remaining US$300 bil worth of Chinese imports, as threatened, will not be imposed for now

However, the new timeline for truce remains elusive; the suspicion is that of a “creeping” imposition of tariffs, as “each truce is followed by new tariffs and then, another truce.”

In December last year, Trump and Xi had struck a truce following which talks broke down in May this year, and tariffs on US$200bil of Chinese imports leaped from 10% to 25%.

Will there be light out of this tunnel, with harder issues involving tech and supremacy not tackled? Smaller economies with the fiscal and monetary space may be able to cushion their economies somewhat from the downdraft on growth.

Malaysia may, to a certain extent, be less vulnerable with the revival of major construction projects which in view of the country’s strained finances, have been shrunk to cut costs.

The Bandar Malaysia and East Coast Rail Link projects to be revived, are now downsized to RM144bil and RM44bil respectively.

Works for the Light Rail Transit (LRT) 3, from Bandar Utama in Petaling Jaya to Johan Setia in Klang, will resume in the second half of the year, at a reduced cost of RM16.63bil.

Talks are said to be ongoing to revive the Mass Rapid Transit Line (MRT) 3, or MRT Circle Line round the city centre, at possibly RM22.5bil which is half the original cost.

“The timing (of the revival of these projects) has been very good for Malaysia,’’ said Pong Teng Siew, the head of research at Inter-Pacific Securities. “These projects will go on for several years and positively impact the economy over that period.’’

Domestic spending and activities will provide ‘some comfort’ to the local economy but we should ensure that any further monetary easing actually goes into the real economy to support these activities, according to Anthony Dass, head of AmBank Research.

Malaysia’s private consumption was at a record 59.5% of its nominal (calculated at current market prices) Gross Domestic Product, which hit US$88.5 bil in March, 2019, according to CEIC Data.

Benefits from trade diversion from China, the current US tariff hotspot, are offset by downward pressure on global trade where volume was flat in the first quarter, the weakest since the financial crisis.

Global semiconductor sales also declined in February and March, the first back-to-back double digit contraction since the financial crisis.

In view of this decline, the volatile global trade environment and rising geopolitical tensions, open economies “should be prepared for the unexpected,’’ said Nor Zahidi Alias, the associate director of economic research of Malaysian Rating Corp.

The Singapore economy may undergo a “shallow, technical recession” in the third quarter, said Maybank Kim Eng, pointing to possible intensification of supply chain disruptions and US export controls on more Chinese tech firms.

Following the Trump-Xi talks, the US has reversed its equipment sales ban on Huawei but will that ease fears of other similar bans down the road? Defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter growth, a recession will prompt further easing of monetary policy in Singapore.

Manufacturing in Singapore, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, fell 2.4%, with electronics dropping 10.8% in May from a year ago; output is expected to decline again in June.

Hong Kong has also been issued warnings of recession, as its economy experienced the largest contraction since 2011, declining by 0.4% in the first quarter against the previous quarter.

Thailand’s economy grew at its slowest pace in four years, in the first quarter, hitting 2.8% from 3.6% in the same period last year; exports remain weak.

Taiwan’s economy avoided contraction in the first quarter but private consumption and gross capital formation slowed significantly while government consumption declined.

In the US, a mis-calibration in interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve can cause a sharper slowdown than expected or bring on a recession.“Monetary policy affects the economy with unpredictable lags, it could be hard for the Fed to time its policy (rate cut) that can prevent a downturn this and next year,’’ said Lee Heng Guie, the executive director of Socio Economic Research Center.

Columnist Yap Leng Kuen notes the reminder to ‘expect the unexpected.’

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