Heralding the Golden Age of Cryptocurrency

 ■ Presidentelect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment

■ Analysts projecting Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 by end-2025

■ The outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, but risks remain

THE cryptocurrency world is buzzing with speculation that bitcoin could reach an unprecedented US$200,000 by 2025. While bitcoin has yet to stabilise around the US$100,000 mark, its meteoric rise in 2024 has emboldened investors and analysts to project a bullish future for the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitwise Asset Management, a prominent voice in the crypto sphere, has described the upcoming year as the Golden Age of Crypto.

According to the firm, the regulatory landscape in the United States has significantly improved following the 2024 US elections. President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment.

“We believe we are entering the Golden Age of Crypto,” Bitwise analysts, led by chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen, state in the group’s report.

Bitwise expects Crypto’s magnificent three – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solanato – to hit new all-time highs in 2025, with bitcoin leading the rise to trade above US$200,000.

In addition to Bitwise, other analysts projecting bitcoin to reach US$200,000 include Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, and analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani.

Kendrick forecasts that bitcoin could hit this milestone by the end of 2025, driven by institutional investments in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFS).

In a recent note, he stated that Standard Chartered’s target of US$200,000 by 2025 is “achievable”, adding: “We would become even more bullish if bitcoin experienced accelerated adoption by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds, or the establishment of a potential US strategic reserve fund.

“We anticipate institutional flows to continue at or exceed the pace set in 2024. Microstrategy, for instance, is ahead of its Us$42bil threeyear plan, suggesting its purchases in 2025 will likely match or surpass those of 2024.”

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s analysts attribute their bitcoin price target of US$200,000 by end-2025 to unprecedented demand stemming from spot bitcoin ETFS managed by leading asset managers, according to media reports.

Trump effect

Essentially, crypto has emerged as a clear winner in the 2024 US elections, giving it a brighter regulatory outlook in the United States, Bitwise notes.

For one thing, Trump has announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve and nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s earlier comment that “crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay” reflects the administration’s pro-crypto stance. The reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has historically taken a sceptical view of digital assets, adds another layer of optimism.

Similarly, Bernstein analysts attribute bitcoin’s rise to Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies. They point out that his plan to position the United States as a global leader in the crypto space and his choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto advocate, to lead the SEC have bolstered market confidence.

Record highs

Bitcoin has since cooled to below US$95,000 at the time of writing, after reaching an alltime high of US$103,992 earlier this month.

This marks a 141.72% increase year-to-date as of Dec 6, 2024. According to Bitwise, the surge was largely driven by the US launch of spot bitcoin ETFS, which set records with Us$33.6bil in inflows within their first year.

Other crypto assets, including Ethereum and Solana, also posted substantial year-to-date gains of 75.77% and 127.71%, respectively. This performance highlights how cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, ethereum and solana, have outpaced all major asset classes in 2024.

Crypto equities mirrored this bullish trend. Companies like Microstrategy and Coinbase saw their shares skyrocket by 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively. In comparison, traditional assets such as the S&P 500 and gold returned 28.07% and 27.65% over the same period, highlighting crypto’s dominance.

Catalysts for next milestone

The factors driving bitcoin’s trajectory towards US$200,000 are multifaceted, Bitwise highlights. The launch of bitcoin

ETFS in 2024 shattered expectations, and Bitwise believes 2025 will see even greater inflows.

“When US spot bitcoin ETFS launched in January 2024, ETF experts forecast the group to see Us$5bil to Us$15bil of inflows in their first year. They passed the higher end of that range within the first six months.

“Since launching, the record-setting ETFS have gathered Us$33.6bil in inflows. We expect 2025’s inflows to top that,” Bitwise says.

Drawing a parallel with gold ETFS launched in 2004, Bitwise notes that ETF inflows typically accelerate in subsequent years.

“The best historical analogy we have for the bitcoin ETF launch is the launch of gold ETFS in 2004. Flows petering out would be unusual,” it explains.

At present, major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America have yet to fully embrace bitcoin ETFS.

Bitwise anticipates this to change in 2025, unlocking a wave of institutional investments. “The trillions of dollars these firms manage will start flowing into bitcoin ETFS,” Bitwise predicts.

Risk tolerance

While bitcoin remains the focal point, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana are also poised for substantial gains in 2025. Bitwise’s price targets for Ethereum and Solana are US$7,000 and US$750, respectively.

Ethereum, despite its impressive 2024 performance, has faced competition from fastergrowing programmable blockchains.

However, Bitwise anticipates a “narrative shift” as activity on

Layer 2 blockchains and spot Ethereum ETFS gain traction.

Solana’s resurgence, driven by memecoin mania in 2024, is also expected to continue as serious projects migrate to its network, it says.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan points out that the role of crypto in portfolio construction is mostly a function of risk tolerance.

“Cryptocurrencies are inherently unpredictable: there is little visibility into future price movements and blockchain technology, while exciting, also has few barriers to entry, meaning tokens can become obsolete (and therefore worthless) as new ones enter the market with improved functionality,” the US asset management company cautions.

“As a result, for most investors, any allocation to crypto in a portfolio should be kept both small enough to ensure that even in the event of a significant sell-off it does not derail overall portfolio objectives and well diversified,” it adds.

While the outlook for bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, risks remain.

Regulatory clarity, though improving, is still a work in progress.

The global economic environment, including interest-rate policies and geopolitical tensions, could also impact investor sentiment.

However, the convergence of favourable regulatory developments, institutional adoption and technological advancements positions bitcoin as a strong contender to achieve new heights, potentially reshaping the global financial landscape.

By CECILIA kok cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

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CAPITAL MARKETS: Maximising your unit trust returns

 

Unit trust is an investment vehicle that allows you to invest in a variety of asset classes, offering diversification benefits ■ It’s important to select the best of breed unit trust funds tailored to your asset class and target market to optimise your investment porfolio. when comparing investment options, look at both the investment fee and the overall ROI that the investment offers.

Unit trust is an investment vehicle that allows you to invest in a variety of asset classes, offering diversification benefits. However, to get the most out of them, it’s important to select the best of breed funds, diversify your investments globally and invest through channels with lower management fees.

■ When comparing investment options, look at both the investment management fee and the overall ROI that the investment offers

A COUPLE of weeks ago, I met with a middle-aged couple interested in getting serious about achieving financial freedom.

During our initial consultation, they mentioned that their current investments were in the form of unit trusts recommended by a friend, who is an agent.

However, when I inquired about the specific asset classes their unit trust funds were invested in, they struggled to answer and seemed confused.

This is not an uncommon scenario. Unit trust, one of the most popular investment types in Malaysia, is often misunderstood.

Its easy accessibility and affordability makes it a seemingly a friendlier option for beginners compared to more aggressive investments.

The fact remains, there are still many aspects that are misunderstood about unit trust funds. The ease of access masks the complexities.

So, in this article, we are going to reveal five truths about unit trusts that will help investors make better investment decisions.

Misconception 1: Unit trust is a type of investment

Truth 1: Unit trust is an investment vehicle

A common misconception among new investors is that a unit trust is a standalone investment that focuses on a single asset class, such as property, gold or shares.

In reality, unit trust is an investment vehicle that allows you to invest in a variety of asset classes, offering diversification benefits.

Think of it as a basket containing a mix of investments, like equities, bonds, or even real estate investment trusts. This differs from directly buying individual stocks, where you invest solely in the equity asset class.

For example, if you are looking to invest in Malaysia equities, one option is to directly purchase stocks from several Malaysian companies on the stock market.

Alternatively, you can also invest in a Malaysian equity-type unit trust fund. While the unit trust fund is managed by a fund manager, the asset class you are investing in remains essentially the same or similar.

The specific investment vehicle that you choose is not important. What is more important is the underlying asset classes that you choose to invest into, whether it is using unit trust, exchange-traded funds (ETFS), or other vehicles.

For instance, if you purchase

Malaysian equity unit trusts from three different fund houses, you may think that you are diversifying your investments.

But in reality, these Malaysian equity funds, despite being from different fund houses, still concentrate your exposure to a single market segment.

In essence, you are putting all your eggs into one basket, ultimately investing in a single asset class.

Misconception 2: Equity unit trust funds are as risky as other high-risk investments

Truth 2: Equity unit trust funds are much safer than other high-risk investments

Unit trust funds benefit from a third-party trustee structure, which acts as a safeguard by ensuring the fund’s assets are held on behalf of investors and invested according to the trust deed.

Compared to many other investment schemes, unit trusts are indeed much safer.

Why is that? To illustrate this, let’s take a look at the accompanying diagram.

There are three parties involved in a unit trust fund in Malaysia. The first party is the unit holder, which is you.

Let’s say you invest RM100,000 capital through your fund manager. The money does not actually go into the fund manager’s bank account; it goes into a trustee account, which duty is to hold and protect your capital.

The fund manager is responsible for identifying which equities to allocate the capital to, while the trustee buys and holds the shares according to the fund manager’s instructions.

The beauty of this unit trust model is that it protects your investment.

Even if the fund manager hypothetically goes bankrupt, and has to close its business, your capital is still safe.

This is because the trustee, not the fund management house, holds your money.

Therefore, when you invest in a unit trust fund, you not only getting a return on investment (ROI), but also a return of investment – the return of your capital that you had initially put in.

Misconception 3: Investing in one or two super-performing unit trust funds can grow our serious money effectively

Truth 3: To grow your wealth effectively, you need to diversify globally

The quest for the “best” unit trust fund is a common one, but is it the right approach?

Many investors believe that investing in a single unit trust is effective enough to grow their money in the long run.

The truth is, the way to ensure the growth of your portfolio is by diversifying your asset classes globally.

Take, for example, the impressive performance of the global equities, which have shown an upward trend over the past 30 years.

Several key factors contributed to this phenomenon, including a rising global population and advancements in technology that fuel global demand and productivity.

As many businesses worldwide experience growth and increase their profit, this translates into a rise in global equities.

In contrast, if you were to invest in a share or one fund that focuses on one sector or country, the growth would be unpredictable and less sustainable in the long run.

Therefore, to achieve sustainable growth in your unit trust ROI, ensure that you are diversifying your unit trust funds globally to optimise your growth.

Misconception 4: Unit trust funds are expensive

Truth 4: Unit trust funds can be either expensive or cheap, depending on the channel and market you invest in

One crucial cost to consider for unit trust investors is the sales charge, also known as a front-end fee, applied when purchasing from your chosen fund manager.

When investing in unit trusts through traditional channels, the fees can sometimes go as high as 5%.

It’s important to scrutinise these fees, as high fees can significantly eat into your portfolio’s performance.

For example, suppose your unit trust generates an 8% return in the first year. If the front-end fee charged by your fund house is 5%, your actual return becomes only 3%.

Fortunately, with the online investment platform options and corporate unit trust advisor channel available today, there are many platforms where you can find front-end fees as low as 2% or even lower.

This makes choosing the right channel crucial, as it significantly impacts the fees you pay.

When comparing management fees of your different investments side by side, it is also important to take into account not just the percentage of the fees, but the overall returns of each type of investment and the markets that you invest in.

For example, investors often compare unit trusts to ETFS. ETFS typically boast lower average annual management fees compared to unit trusts.

Due to these lower fees, ETFS might appear to have the potential for higher returns compared to unit trusts.

On the surface, ETF may seem like a better investment option. However, this is not true for all markets.

For example, the investment environment and opportunities in developing markets are vastly different from the developed markets.

In such cases, some unit trust funds managed by experienced professionals have a higher chance of outperforming ETFS despite the higher fund management fees.

Therefore, when comparing investment options, consider the bigger picture.

Look at both the investment management fee and the overall ROI that the investment offers.

Misconception 5: Any unit trust fund salesperson can help you access to the best of breed unit trust funds from the whole market

Truth 5: Only selected qualified advisors can help you access the best of breed unit trust funds from the open market

To optimise your investment portfolio, consider investing in the best of breed unit trust funds tailored to your asset class and target market.

This means that if you are looking to invest in an equity fund in the local market, you should ensure that you pick the best quality fund among all the Malaysian equity funds.

But how do you identify the “best” unit trust fund for your needs? It’s not as straightforward as it seems.

The reality is that many investors rely on bankers or unit trust agents to recommend funds for them to invest in.

However, relying on these recommendations might not be the best approach, as their choices are often limited to the funds offered by their own companies or fund houses.

Therefore, the best recommendation they can make may not be the best fund for you to invest in.

Let’s take the example of several Malaysia equity funds under a single fund house.

The best performing fund within the single fund house, Fund A has achieved an ROI of just under 60% over a five-year period, which is quite impressive.

However, when we broaden our horizons and compare Fund A’s performance to options available in the open market, we are faced with the truth that the fund we initially thought was the best performer (Fund A) ranks lower when compared to other Malaysian equity funds in the open market.

Even more striking, the actual top performer in the open market delivered nearly double the ROI!

In other words, by choosing the seemingly “best” fund within one company only, you could have missed out on potential gains of an additional 60% of ROI. That’s a significant difference!

To ensure that you’re not missing out on potentially better options, consider consulting with independent financial advisors who operate under corporate unit trust advisor company.

They can advise and recommend a wider range of unit trust funds in the open market, not just limited to options within a single fund house.

From the points that I shared above, you’re now equipped with a better understanding of the ins and outs of unit trusts.

Unit trust funds can be a valuable tool to effectively grow your money.

However, to get the most out of them, it’s important to select the best of breed funds, diversify your investments globally and invest through channels with lower management fees.

By following these steps, you can build a sturdy portfolio that will grow steadily in the long run and provide you the financial growth that you seek.

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“Many investors believe that investing in a single unit trust is effective enough to grow their money in the long run. The truth is, the way to ensure the growth of your portfolio is by diversifying your asset classes globally.”

New Zealand may have a solution for world’s debt

Quick fix: Pedestrians walk past a Moore Wilson & Co supermarket in Wellington. The success of New Zealand’s reforms are reflected in its fiscal performance, says Ball. — Bloomberg

WELLINGTON: In the early 1980s, New Zealand was on the brink of economic collapse.

Two oil price shocks had saddled the country with high inflation, and the United Kingdom’s decision to join the European Economic Community a decade earlier had cut off access to a key export market.

Successive governments had compounded the pain with a series of policy errors – throwing around subsidies, awarding inflationary pay deals and trying to control prices, while keeping interest rates too low and taxes too high.

The result was soaring unemployment and mounting debts.

No wonder some dubbed New Zealand the Albania of the South Pacific.

Yet over the remainder of that decade, New Zealand was transformed into one of the most prosperous countries in the world.

A new Labour government took office in 1984 and embarked on a form of shock therapy that came to be known as “Rogernomics” after Finance Minister Roger Douglas.

The government removed exchange controls, slashed subsidies, privatised services and handed responsibility for setting interest rates to a newly independent central bank.

New Zealand also introduced a different accounting approach throughout the public administration.

It is impossible to separate out the precise impact of each of these policies.

But Ian Ball, a former senior Treasury official, professor of public finance management at Victoria University in Wellington, and one of the authors of Public Net Worth (Palgrave Macmillan, February 2024), says accounting reform was among the most consequential.

Accounting is notoriously dry stuff. But switching to an accruals-based approach used in the private sector, and away from the cash-based systems traditionally used by governments, forced departments to think long-term and maximise the efficient use of assets.

This is especially relevant in the United Kingdom at the moment with the government on the cusp of major budget reform.

To see what this means in practice, take the case of public sector pensions.

Under a cash-based system, the debt is accounted for when the pension is paid, which could be years in the future.

The government has little incentive to make any provision for it.

But with accrual-based accounting, the cost of the pension commitment must be recorded as a liability when the benefit is earned.

That led the New Zealand government in 2001 to establish a Superannuation Fund to pay for future pensions.

Today, this quasi-sovereign wealth fund is regarded with jealousy by countries that wish they had something similar.

Take another example: Under an accruals-based system, the budget includes a charge each year to reflect the fact assets such as buildings and infrastructure deteriorate and eventually become obsolete.

This is what accountants call depreciation.

Because the cost runs through annual budgets, there is a strong incentive for governments to enhance the value of their assets by managing them efficiently.

Under a cash-based system, there is no such incentive, meaning long-term investment is deferred, and future generations are left to pick up the bill when buildings fall into disrepair and the infrastructure crumbles.

The success of New Zealand’s reforms are reflected in its fiscal performance, says Ball.

“What you see is a very significant change.

“We had had two decades of deficits before these reforms, but once they were in effect, from around 1994, we had basically a trend of strengthening the balance sheet and increasing net worth.

“And as you strengthen the balance sheet, you have the effect of reducing debt too.”

With the exception of the four years after the global financial crisis and the devastating Christchurch earthquake in 2011, which caused damage equivalent to 11% of gross domestic product (GDP), net worth grew every year until the pandemic.

Ball is on a mission to export New Zealand’s experience.

In collaboration with colleagues from around the world, including a historian, a banker, a former UK Treasury official and the former global chief economist at Citigroup Inc, he has written Public Net Worth to explain how this approach could be the answer to the one of the biggest challenges facing almost every government today:

How to tackle excessive public debt, particularly at a time when ageing populations, geopolitical tensions, geoeconomic fragmentation and the costs of combating climate change add to fiscal pressures.

US public debt is close to 100% of GDP and is projected to rise to 122% by 2034.

Many eurozone countries are struggling to bring debts and deficits under control to comply with single currency rules. The situation in many developing countries is even more stark.

Indeed, economists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have warned that global public debt may be higher than previously known and getting worse, and that countries will have to make much more significant fiscal adjustments to deal with the problem.

According to the IMF’s latest estimates, global public debt will exceed US$100 trillion by the end of this year, equal to about 93% of global GDP.

Against such a backdrop, the authors argue that accrual-based accounting could improve public sector productivity, helping ease the pressure on cash-strapped governments.

For example, they reckon governments could make easy gains through better management of their public property.

Cash-based accounting values property based on what you paid for it, less depreciation, with no reference to the current market value.

But without up-to-date valuations of assets, government decision-making takes place in the dark.

Should a building be renovated or sold?

How much should the state charge for its services?

A road network, for example, is a valuable public asset.

But in a cash-based system, there is no incentive to generate money from it, whether via tolls or road-pricing or some other mechanism.

In New Zealand, says Ball, one of the early exercises was to work out an appropriate capital charge for public services.

Armed with that information, the government could then decide who was best placed to deliver them: the state or the private sector.

As the old saying goes, what you can’t measure you can’t manage. — Bloomberg

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