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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Premier Wen: Bilateral relations based on mutual trust; Shows great interest in China-Malaysia ties



Wen: Bilateral relations based on mutual trust

By CHOW HOW BAN  hbchow@thestar.com.my 



BEIJING: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has cited mutual trust as the most important element in developing his country's solid ties with Malaysia.

He said China could never forget the significant events that helped shape bilateral ties since diplomatic relations were established in 1974.

“The first, when China was at its most difficult moment, Malaysia was the first Asean country to establish diplomatic relations with China.

»I believe Malaysia-China relations will enjoy a very bright future« CHINESE PREMIER WEN JIABAO
“The second was when Malaysia proposed to Asean 20 years ago to engage in dialogue with China,” he said.

“As an ancient Chinese proverb goes, Do not forget what favours others have done for you'.

“We have never forgotten these historical episodes between our countries.

“Mutual trust forms the bedrock of our bilateral relations and I believe Malaysia-China relations will enjoy a very bright future,'' he said in a special interview with The Star and Bernama at the headquarters of the Chinese Cabinet here on Monday. It was conducted ahead of his two-day official visit to Malaysia beginning today.

Wen will hold talks with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in Putrajaya tomorrow after an official welcoming ceremony at Dataran Perdana.

He will be accompanied by a 118-member delegation comprising four ministers, senior government officials, businessmen and the media.

Najib and Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor will host an official luncheon in honour of Wen and his entourage at Seri Perdana.

Both leaders are also scheduled to address the Malaysia-China Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum organised by the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (Asli) later in the afternoon.

Wen said both countries should enhance business co-operation although Malaysia was already China's biggest trading partner in Asean with US$74.2bil (RM222.6bil) in two-way trade last year.


“What we need to do now is sustain the momentum of balanced, co-ordinated and sustainable growth of our trade. At the same time, we should increase the science and technological contents of our traded goods,'' he added.

Wen also noted that there had been a lot of publicity over an agreement on mutual recognition of academic degrees, describing the development as important “for it will enhance friendship and deepen co-operation between both countries”.

He said during his visit, the Chinese side would put forward specific proposals for better mutual reinforcement of financial and business co-operation.

On possible negative consequences to some smaller companies following the establishment of the China-Asean Free Trade Area (Cafta) last year, Wen explained that all participating countries had benefited from Cafta as trade between them had grown tremendously.



Premier Wen shows great interest in China-Malaysia ties

BEIJING: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao begins his two-day visit to Kuala Lumpur Wednesday at the invitation of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

From here he will go to Jakarta for his official visit to the republic at the invitation of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for another two-day visit.

Wen gave a rare one-hour interview to two Malaysia media (The Star and Bernama) and three from Indonesia at the Cabinet office at the Zhong Nan Hai in Beijing on Monday.

Wen being interviewed by reporters from Malaysia and Indonesia at the headquarters of the Chinese Cabinet in Beijing on Monday. - Xinhua news agency 
Wen had granted only two to three such interviews since becoming premier eight years ago and Chinese officials stressed that this showed the “great significance” he attached to the official visits to the two countries.

Wen arrived for the interview 15 minutes early and officials said this showed his great interest in the visits. Here is the full text of the interview.

Question: The level of Malaysia-China relations has reached a new high and this is evident in the fact that Malaysia has become China's biggest trading partner among Asean members. Soon the two countries will sign the agreement on mutual recognition of academic degrees. What could the two countries do to further enhance the cooperation? Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak once said that the future success of Malaysia-China relations must be based on mutual trust between the two countries. What do you think are the key factors in fostering better Malaysia-China relations?

Wen: Before I answer your question, I cannot help but recall two major historical events in the history of exchanges between China and Malaysia. The first is that when China was in its most difficult moments, Malaysia was the first Asean member to establish diplomatic relations with China.

Thirty-seven years ago, the then Prime Minister of Malaysia Tun Abdul Razak - father of current Prime Minister Najib - and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai signed the joint communique on the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

The second event is that Malaysia proposed to Asean 20 years ago to begin dialogue with China. As an ancient Chinese proverb goes “do not forget what favours others have done for you” (and) we have never forgotten these historical episodes between our two countries. You spoke about the future development of Sino-Malaysia relations and I agree that mutual trust comes first and foremost in developing state-to-state relationships.

As a Chinese saying goes “when developing relationships it is essential that we increase mutual communication and we tell people what are truly on our minds”. Mutual trust forms the bedrock of our bilateral relations and I believe Malaysia-China relations will enjoy a very bright future.

You have already highlighted the priority areas in Malaysia-China relations. I believe the two countries should enhance business cooperation as you mentioned that Malaysia has become China's biggest trading partner among Asean countries.

According to Chinese statistics, last year our two-way trade volume reached US$74.2bil. What we need to do now is to sustain the momentum of balanced, coordinated and sustainable growth of our trade. At the same time, we should increase the science and technological contents of our traded goods.

Secondly, the two sides should work together to promote cooperation in science and technology and education. I noticed that there has been much coverage in local Malaysian newspapers that the two countries will sign the agreement on mutual recognition of academic degrees.

Why did these papers pay so much attention to this? I believe the exchanges in education, science and technology represents the future of our bilateral ties, particularly in the exchange of young people because it is the young people who will carry the future mission of enhancing friendship and deepening cooperation between our two countries.

Thirdly, we need to increase mutual investment and this includes key projects that Malaysia has paid much attention to, such as the Second Penang Bridge project, the paper pulp mill project in Sarawak and other cooperation projects in infrastructure development.

One major progress we have made in enhancing such cooperation is to strengthen the financial support for our cooperation.

During my visit to Malaysia, the Chinese side will put forward specific proposals for better mutual reinforcements of financial and business cooperation. In other words, I believe we will open a new chapter in China-Malaysia cooperation.

Question: Although Malaysia and China have some friction over some islands and reefs in South China Sea such as the Swallow Reef (Pulau Layang Layang), the relationship between the two countries has moved forward steadily. I would like to ask whether China would hold talks on joint development in these contested islands and reefs with Malaysia and other relevant countries that have cross claims with China?

Wen: China remains committed to the Declaration of Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea. We take the position that territorial disputes over maritime rights and interests should be peacefully addressed and resolved by the countries concerned through bilateral channels.

We disapprove of referring bilateral disputes to multi-lateral forums because that will only complicate the issue. You have rightly mentioned that although China and Malaysia have some disputes over the mentioned island and reefs in the South China Sea, these disputes have not impeded our efforts to have peaceful co-existence between the two countries.

Secondly, I totally agree that the countries concerned can and should have joint development of resources in the South China Sea because this is in the interest of regional peace in the area and it also serves the interests of all claimant countries.

Let me take this opportunity to address a very important subject related to China's development and where China is heading. I know that some Asean countries have shown a keen interest in this topic. China is a developing country. With over 30 years of reform and opening up, we have achieved much progress in economic and social development.

However, China remains a big country with a huge population and weak economic foundation. That means we still have to work hard if we are to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieve our goal of modernisation.

China will adhere to an independent foreign policy and maintain the policy of building neighbourly relations and partnership with neighbouring countries. This is our policy now when we are not a developed country and even if one day China becomes a developed country, we will still adhere to such policy and China will never seek domination.

China's development itself is a major contribution to the prosperity of the world. China's development also represents an opportunity for its neighbouring countries like Asean. China is a big country that does not shirk from its responsibilities.

China is committed to play its part in promoting world peace, security and stability. We are of the view that for such a large developing country like China, it must have a peaceful external environment and stable domestic environment so that it will be able to sustain the momentum of development and progress. I believe that on this subject we will have a long understanding of Asean countries and their cooperation too.

Question: Can you tell us your impression of Indonesia? The Chinese government has set out its 12th Five-Year Plan and so has Indonesia announced its mid-term and long-term economic blueprint. How will the two countries deepen their bilateral relations and translate these opportunities into real benefits?

Wen: Indonesia is a country with a vast expanse of territories, rich natural resources and a huge population. It has long coastline and a lot of islands. It is renowned as the emerald of the equator.

Exchanges between China and Indonesia have a time-honoured history. In recent years, relations between two countries have enjoyed rapid development. I came to know the country by the name of Indonesia when I was a child. Even when I was very young, I could hum some famous Indonesia folk songs including Baby (Butet) and Aiyo Mama. When it comes to exchanges between two countries, we can trace it back to the 4th century when the eminent monk, Fa-Hien, visited Indonesia.

In the 8th century, there was a famous Chinese called Yi Jing who visited Indonesia and it was during that time that a large number of Chinese started to go to Indonesia and settled down there. A few days ago I had a meeting with the Indonesian Foreign Minister.

In our meeting, the minister told me some historical episodes between China and Indonesia. He told me that he was born in Sumatra and many of the local Sumatra people actually look very much like Chinese. He told me that he suspected he has some Chinese roots as well.

The most famous historical episode in the exchanges between China and Indonesia was the Western Seas voyages by Admiral Zheng He who was a famous Muslim navigator in the early 15th century. He helped established several mosques in Indonesia during these visits and many of them are still very much preserved.

In modern times, the most memorable episode in our exchanges is the Bandung Conference in which Zhou Enlai and the then Indonesian President Sukarno made tremendous efforts to bring about the successful Asia-Africa conference there.

Together they worked to initiate 10 important principles for the peaceful co-existence of Asian and African countries.

In order to gain a better knowledge and understanding about those historical events, I once paid a special visit to the relevant venue in Bandung. I cherish friendly sentiments and have a fond impression of Indonesia.

You mentioned in your question that China is implementing the 12th Five-Year Plan on economic and social development and Indonesia has set out its blueprint for long-term economic development.

I believe they represent tremendous opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. What we need to do now is to seize these opportunities and translate them into concrete results. To do this I think it is important for us to take the following steps in six areas.

First, we should enhance high-level of exchanges, establish a mechanism for regular mutual visits at the leadership level and increase our mutual political trust.

Second, we need to carry out closer economic cooperation and trade. The two countries can make full use of the China-Asean cooperation mechanism on the China-Asean Free Trade Area (Cafta) and we can enhance our cooperation in energy, infrastructure development and important sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and fishery.

Third, we need to step up maritime cooperation including maritime security, military exchanges, joint anti-terrorism exercises, military drills and marine economy which includes the development of marine resources ad research and development of the marine science and technology. We should also enhance our cooperation in the forecast of disasters as well as preparedness of tsunami and earthquake.

Fourth, we need to intensify our cultural and people-to-people exchanges and exchanges in science and technology and education. Talking about education, I believe both educational and cultural exchanges represent the future of our friendship and form the foundation of our cooperation. We need to work together for the agreement on mutual recognition of academic degrees and diplomas of higher education. We should also increase the visits by our students and it means a lot to both countries.

Fifth, we need to enhance our cooperation in Asean. Indonesia will assume the rotating presidency of Asean and I hope that Indonesia will continue to play an active and constructive role in promoting China-Asean cooperation.

Sixth, we should step up cooperation on major international and regional issues. Indonesia is a member of G20 and it is an emerging economy. The country has extensive and increasing influence not only in Asia but also in the world. We hope that both countries will step up consultations and cooperation in international affairs and make joint efforts to promote world peace and prosperity.

Question: It is interesting that you said you know the Indonesian song Aiyo Mama. Do you still remember the song? Asean and China have made tremendous progress in recent years. Do you see any challenges in China-Asean relationship? What effort will China take to enhance China-Asean relationship? Some countries including Indonesia have some concerns on the implementation of the Cafta, what do you think about that?

Wen: To answer your first question, I can still hum the tunes of Aiyo Mama and Baby (Butet). Maybe, when we have some time later, I can sing them to you.

You asked a couple of very big questions. Talking about the relationship between China and Asean, I would like to say our relationship has come a long way in the past 20 years. We have moved from dialogue relationship to good neighbourly relationship to now strategic cooperation.

China and Asean now enjoy all-round cooperation. For example, in 2004, Indonesia and China established strategic partnership and after that we together formulated the plans of action for strategic partnership bringing our bilateral ties to a new stage.

Now China-Asean relationship has entered a stage of forging ahead across the board. I believe we have worked together well in terms of the FTA development, financial cooperation, infrastructure connectivity and many other areas.

Although Asean members are at different stages of development, I believe we can all benefit from our cooperation on the basis of mutual respect and win-win results. I believe the cooperation between the two sides will extend to concrete results to all relevant parties.

I have the privilege of attending all China-Asean leaders meetings since 2003 as Chinese Premier. I have witnessed the progress of Asean integration and the formation and improvement in such cooperation mechanism as 10+1, 10+3 and the mechanism of China, Japan and South Korea cooperation.

I believe these mechanisms have complemented each other, drawn upon each other's comparative advantages and achieved common development. They have developed into fairly full-fledged and effective cooperation mechanisms. I hope that China-Asean cooperation will continue to move in the right direction.
You asked the question on Cafta. I would like to say that much preparation have been made before the FTA was inaugurated. Last year, we reached the consensus on the FTA and signed relevant agreements.

I believe Cafta has brought benefits to China and Asean countries. We have witnessed a surge in trade between the two sides. For example last year, trade between China and Indonesia expanded by 50% and in the first quarter of this year trade between the two countries has achieved a balanced trade with the trade volume of about US$12bil.

I would like to take this opportunity to clear some of the concerns raised by some businesses on Cafta. I do believe that the realisation of Cafta has brought mutual benefits and win-win results to all parties.
What we need to do is make full use of the favourable conditions, especially the preferential policies set out in the FTA.

In the course of the Cafta development, we should make timely adjustments in the light of current circumstances. We need to accommodate the interests of small-and-medium enterprises and we need to work together to ensure that Cafta will continue to benefit all sides. In this regard, China has always pursued an open approach.

Asean and China have stood by each other in difficult times during the two financial crises. When Indonesia was struck by the severe tsunami and China was hit by the devastating earthquake in Wenchuan, we helped each other in those tough times.I believe all these fully demonstrate the strong brotherly bond between China and Asean.

Question: Great changes have taken place in East Asia. How will China deal with the relationship especially with the inclusion of external powers like the United States in the East Asia Summit? What responsibilities will China undertake to maintain the regional peace and security? Since the US and Russia have joined the East Asia Summit, regional cooperation has changed. What do you think about this?

Wen: Personally, I have experienced the entire course of development of the East Asia Summit mechanism. In approaching the new dynamics in East Asian cooperation, I believe that it is important we follow the following three principles.

First, we need to consolidate, enhance and develop the existing cooperation mechanism. We need to work together to establish and improve long-term cooperation plans. We should ensure the plans are fully implemented and deliver real benefits to the people of all East Asian countries.

Second, we should respect the diversity of the East Asian cooperation. The new dynamics in our regional cooperation structure actually reflect the diversity of East Asian cooperation. In carrying out the East Asian cooperation, China has always advocated the principles that the East Asian cooperation should always have Asean to play a leading role. The East Asian cooperation should contribute to the Asean integration process and the development of all East Asian countries.

Third, we should ensure that our cooperation would remain open and inclusive. East Asian cooperation has been constantly expanded and this year the leaders of US and Russia will attend the East Asian Summit. I believe the East Asian Summit should stick to its nature as a leaders-led strategic forum. In this forum, we should work together to promote peace and stability of East Asia and promote development and progress of East Asia.

China is a responsible country and adheres to the path of peaceful development. China also assumes its responsibilities for regional security and stability such as in the areas of counter terrorism and maritime security.

Talking about maritime security, China has always advocated that efforts should be made to ensure navigation freedom and security in accordance with the international laws. China has contributed its part to this end. China has been a beneficiary of the safety and security of the international shipping routes in the South China Sea.

Many of China's goods and energy imports go through the Straits of Malacca. We want to enhance cooperation with other countries to ensure navigation freedom and security in the South China Sea.

Fraudsters mostly males



Expert: Fraudsters are married and have good communication skills



KUALA LUMPUR: A large number of those who commit fraud are males, married and have good communication skills, according to an expert.

They are also intelligent individuals who are not only egoistic, but have inquisitive personality, are willing to break rules and take risks.

Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (Malaysian Chapter) president Datuk Akhbar Ali said according to statistics, 87% of those who commit fraud were males, aged between 31 and 45 with most of them “married and have pretty wives”.

“Those who commit fraud do so as they are under stress due to personal crisis such as financial problems.

“They are also individuals who are greedy and big spenders, living beyond their means,” he said at a symposium against corruption and fraud here yesterday.



Akhbar said fraudsters usually would go home late from work to enable them to steal company information and sell it to interested parties.

He said they would also refuse promotions and transfers as the position they were presently in would facilitate committing the crime.

“These people will also not take vacations fearing their activities would be exposed when they are not around at their desks.

“Those who lived beyond their means and have a very close relationship with their clients should also be checked for fraud,” he said.

Akhbar said it was important for organisations to fight fraud and corruption to ensure and maintain the success of their establishment apart from preventing revenue losses.

He added that in an organisation where fraud had been committed, there would be at least 6% loss in revenue.

“More importantly, such activities can destroy a nation and it is also important to remind the public on the severity of punishment should one get caught for committing the offences,” he added.

He stressed that the menace would only grow and “not stop on its own”. “If left unchecked, the losses would be greater.

“It is extremely important for companies to do a background check on their potential staff before hiring them,” he added.

Check earlier post: 
Why Corporate Fraud Is On The Rise

Cyber crooks target gamers

By P. ARUNA aruna@thestar.com.my




SERI KEMBANGAN: Cyber crooks have now set up fake gaming sites to steal information from Internet surfers.

They are also stealing personal information from online gamers and selling virtual gaming items like weapons to other players.

Cybersecurity Malaysia, which is an agency under the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry, said cyber criminals were targeting gaming websites and had spread their wings to Malaysia, with five cases reported so far.

“Gaming websites have already become a lucrative business for cyber criminals in South Korea and China,” said Cybersecurity Malaysia vice-president (cyber security responsive services) Adli Abd Wahid.

Gamers are spending more money on online gaming, purchasing ‘battle tanks’, ‘avatars’ and other virtual gadgets and tools needed to advance to higher levels of a certain online game.

“Cyber crooks can steal the usernames and passwords of users who have advanced to a certain level in a game, and sell the account to buyers who want to continue playing the game from that level.”

Adli said that since many gamers preferred not to waste time starting from the lowest levels, they were willing to buy from cyber crooks.

The crooks could also steal the virtual weapons and gadgets from compromised accounts and sell them to other players.

Adli estimated that 99% of phishing websites targeting Malaysians were created and operated overseas, with foreign syndicates often hiring locals as “money mules” to transfer stolen money to foreign bank accounts.

The number of phishing sites detected in Malaysia rose from 634 cases in 2009 to 1,426 reports that were lodged last year.

IDC Market Research (M) Sdn Bhd associate analyst Devtar Singh said there were currently an estimated 7.3 million online gamers in Malaysia.

International anti-phishing service provider Internet Identity (IID) reported that the attacks were expected to rise with the global online gaming industry generating over US$15bil (RM44bil) annually, making it a strong target for criminals.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

U.S. Dollar Falls against Euro, Ringgit hits new level since Asian financial crisis!




U.S. Dollar Falls Against The Euro
By Benzinga Staff

The U.S dollar fell further against the Euro Monday, April 25th, just in time for the April 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Reuters reports.
This news comes shortly after Standard & Poor shifted the United States AAA credit rating from a stable outlook to a negative one, and the bad news and uncertainty continues for the U.S.

Reuters reports that the main reason for the weak dollar is the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy coupled with stagnant interest rates. The European Central Bank is raising interest rates while the U.S. Fed has remained steady.

Last week, the European Central Bank raised its refinancing rate from 1%, a record low, to 1.25%. The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept its main refinancing rate close to zero since December 2008.

The dollar is currently trading at 73.972, only a slight increase from the three-year low of 73.735 reached last week. The Euro is currently at 1.4604, which is very close to the 16-month high of 1.4649 also reached last week.

Market members will be anxiously awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting news conference, with hopes of more competitive interest rates to drive up U.S. currency. The internal conflict within U.S government regarding budget deficits and growing debt does not help the dollar either.

Despite the U.S. unemployment rate continuing to decrease, people applying for jobless benefits is still too high and further reinforcing the stagnant low interest rates. At the end of the week of April 9th, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 382,000 to 380,000.

Regardless of the outcome of Federal Open Market Committee meeting, it won't be a speedy recovery for the dollar. The Federal Reserve expects to slowly recover all of the money initially circulated back in 2008 to help the economy get out of the recession.

According to Reuters, inflation and rising commodity prices are only driving the value of competitor currencies up, with Canadian and Australian dollars hitting multi-year peaks.




Ringgit hits new level since Asian financial crisis

By FINTAN NG  fintan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: The ringgit closed below 3 to the greenback yesterday, breaking a psychological barrier and hitting a level not seen since the dark days of the Asian financial crisis.

The local currency settled at 2.992 to the US dollar, gaining 2.34% since the beginning of the year and charting another multi-year high.

However, exporters need not fear as its rise has been in tandem with the strengthening of other currencies in the region.

Economists told The Star there would be cause for concern only if the ringgit appreciated more than currencies whose exports competed head-to-head against Malaysia's.


Better deal: Money changer Kamaruddin Packiry counting US dollar notes at his shop in Ikano Power Centre at Mutiara Damansara yesterday. — GLENN GUAN / The Star

They said investors were now focusing on emerging economies, including Asia's, given that there was less risk to growth.

They pointed out that the reasons for the better performance of the region's currencies were expectations of tighter monetary policy due to inflation worries, stronger economic fundamentals and robust demand (compared to developed economies).

When compared with other major currencies, the ringgit had generally weakened since the beginning of the year. The ringgit weakened by 4.06% against the pound and fell by 3.07% versus the Aussie dollar and 2% against the Canadian dollar.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Azrul Azwar said the ringgit's rise should not pose many problems for local exporters as long as it was not out of sync with regional currencies.

He believed Bank Negara would continue to intervene in currency markets to ensure “orderly and gradual” movement of the currency.

Affin Investment Bank Bhd economist Alan Tan said compared with the region's currencies, the greenback's weakness was largely due to concerns over still unclear US data on housing and jobs, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve that monetary policy would continue to remain easy.

Stronger ringgit not a problemBy FINTAN NG fintan@thestar.com.my

So long as rise in tandem with other regional currencies

PETALING JAYA: An appreciating ringgit will not have as much of an impact on the exports front as long as it strengthens in tandem with other currencies in the region.

Malaysia's top five export destinations in February were Singapore, China, Japan, the European Union and the United States. These countries were also the top five destinations for exports last year.

Economists told StarBiz that a strengthening ringgit would not be a problem as long as the currency's movement was synchronised with the region where competitors include Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Malaysia's competitors in the electrical and electronics (E&E) industry, which made up nearly 40% of total exports last year, include South Korea and Taiwan.



To varying degrees, emerging Asia's currencies have appreciated against their major trade partners as growth risks faded and the loose monetary policies of the United States and the 17-member eurozone prompt investors to shift their focus to more robust markets.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Azrul Azwar said the ringgit's rise should not post much problem for local exporters as long as the currency's rise was not out of sync with regional currencies.

In any case, economists have pointed out time and again that Bank Negara would continue to intervene in the currency markets to ensure that the ringgit's movement remained orderly and gradual.

“This has always been the case, Bank Negara will intervene so as to ensure that the ringgit's movement will not impact the manufacturing sector's exports-intensive industries,” Azrul said.

He added that part of the reason for the rise of currencies in emerging Asia was due to expectations of tighter monetary policy as inflation fuelled by higher crude oil and commodity prices hit these economies, where demand has been stronger compared to the developed economies.

Affin Investment Bank Bhd economist Alan Tan said there were indications that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would continue to keep US benchmark interest rates low and monetary policy loose.


Filepic: A money changer counts U.S. dollar bank notes and Malasyian ringgit notes for customers in Kuala Lumpur. 


Economists told StarBiz that a strengthening ringgit would not be a problem as long as the currency’s movement was synchronised with the region where competitors include Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
 
“The FOMC members are signalling that the easy monetary policy will continue as jobs and housing remain weak while the first-quarter gross domestic product growth is likely to be softer than the previous quarter,” he said.

The FOMC would release its rate decision on Wednesday while the first-quarter figures would be released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, SMI Association of Malaysia national president Chua Tiam Wee, whose members expect the ringgit to strengthen further, said any rise in the ringgit would have some impact on exporters.

“As trade is mostly conducted in US dollars, exporters will still have to fulfill their orders and absorb the losses,” he said.

Chua added that exporters would just have to be more productive and find ways to mitigate the strengthening ringgit via hedging or source their raw material in a more cost-effective way.

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Monday, April 25, 2011

US default could be doomsday option for economy




US default could be doomsday option for economy
US President Barack Obama speaks at a fundraiser at Nob Hill Masonic Center in San Francisco April 20, 2011. [Photo/Agencies]

WASHINGTON - The United States has never defaulted on its debt and Democrats and Republicans say they don't want it to happen now. But with partisan acrimony running at fever pitch, and Democrats and Republicans so far apart on how to tame the deficit, the unthinkable is suddenly being pondered.
The government now borrows about 42 cents of every dollar it spends. Imagine that one day soon, the borrowing slams up against the current debt limit ceiling of $14.3 trillion and Congress fails to raise it. The damage would ripple across the entire US economy, eventually affecting nearly every American, and rocking global markets in the process.
A default would come if the government actually failed to fulfill a financial obligation, including repaying a loan or interest on that loan. The government borrows mostly by selling bonds to individuals and governments, with a promise to pay back the amount of the bond in a certain time period and agreeing to pay regular interest on that bond in the meantime.
Among the first directly affected would likely be money-market funds holding government securities, banks that buy bonds directly from the Federal Reserve and resell them to consumers, including pension and mutual funds; and the foreign investor community, which holds nearly half of all Treasury securities.
If the US starts missing interest or principal payments, borrowers would demand higher and higher rates on new bonds, as they did with Greece, Portugal and other heavily indebted nations. Who wants to keep loaning money to a deadbeat nation that can't pay its bills?
At some point, the government would have to slash spending in other areas to make room for any further sales of Treasury bills and bonds. That could squeeze payments to federal contractors, and eventually even affect Social Security and other government benefit payments, as well as federal workers' paychecks.
A default would likely trigger another financial panic like the one in 2008 and plunge an economy still reeling from high joblessness and a battered housing market back into recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls failure to raise the debt limit "a recovery-ending event." US stock markets would likely tank -- devastating roughly half of US households that own stocks, either individually or through retirement savings programs.



Eventually, the cost of most credit would rise -- from business and consumer loans to home mortgages, auto financing and credit cards.
Continued stalemate could also further depress the value of the dollar and challenge the greenback's status as the world's prime "reserve currency."
China and other countries that now hold about 50 percent of all US Treasury securities could start dumping them, further pushing up interest rates and swelling the national debt. It would be a vicious cycle of higher and higher interest rates and more and more debt.
The US has long been the global standard for financial stability and creditworthiness, with Treasury securities seen as a fail-safe investment. But after the near-shutdown of the US government and a new credit-rating report this week questioning the country's fiscal health, Treasury bills and bonds are losing luster.
If there is a debt limit deadlock, the government by this summer could find itself legally unable to borrow more money to pay its bills, beginning with interest on its debt and gradually extending to day-to-day federal operations. At some point, the government would have to decide which bills to pay and which to put aside.
The debt ceiling will be hit on or around May 16, the Treasury Department says. Unlike the threatened government shutdown, the impact would start slowly, but then build mightily until the damage would be so dire that few political leaders or economists even want to contemplate it. The day of reckoning could likely be delayed at least until early July with creative bookkeeping.
When the House first rejected the Bush administration's $600-billion bank bailout in September 2008, the Dow Jones industrials went into a dizzying 778-point tailspin. A whiff of a possible similar stock market collapse came on Monday with a sharp selloff on Wall Street when the Standard & Poors lowered its outlook on US debt to "negative" from "stable," possibly a first step toward a possible downgrade of America's coveted AAA credit rating.
"We haven't downgraded it. We just said, if nothing happens, we may have to," said S&P chief economist David Wyss. He said a government default remains uncharted territory, "which is one reason why it's not a good idea to hit the debt ceiling."
"There's reason to worry," said Wyss. "But my best guess is that we sort of muddle through this. Cuts will be made, they'll be too little too late, but at least they will be enough to maintain a triple-A rating."
"It's another game of chicken. And this time there are Mack trucks going at each other, not bumper cars. This is a biggie," said American University political scientist James Thurber. But he predicted that, as in the past, "there will be an accommodation. They will avoid a crash."
Investment bank J.P. Morgan Chase recently concluded that any delay in making an interest or principal payments by the Treasury "even for a very short period of time" would have large "long-term adverse consequences for Treasury finances and the US economy." The analysis is being circulated on Capitol Hill by supporters of raising the debt limit.
"If anyone wants to push that button, which I think would be catastrophic and unpredictable, I think they're crazy," JP Morgan CEO Jaime Dimon said recently of those seeking to block raising the debt limit.
(Agencies)
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Making Debt Ratings Count, Downgrades US Bonds!

 

Sunday, April 24, 2011

The Rabbi’s Four Leadership Lessons - 4 kinds of thinking

  by August Turak SERVICE AND SELFLESSNESS AT WORK





Success is not a matter of what we think but how we think. There are four kinds of thinking. To be a great leader, we must master them all.  

A Rabbi, fabled for his wisdom, was approached by a young man eager to become his student. The Rabbi repeatedly rejected the young man, dismissively suggesting that he return when he was older and wiser. But the young man insisted that he had mastered logic and all the branches of worldly knowledge, and was therefore worthy of the wisdom of the Divine. Relenting, the Rabbi finally said that if the young man could unravel a riddle he would accept him as a student.

“Two men slide down the chimney of a peasant’s hut together. When they get to the bottom, one’s face is covered with soot while the other is clean. Who goes to wash?”

“Obviously the face covered with soot,” the young man said.
“Don’t be ridiculous! The one covered in soot sees a clean face while the other, peering into a dirty face, assumes his face must be sooty as well. The clean face is washed.

The rabbi turned to leave, but the young man pleaded for another chance until the Rabbi finally agreed.

“Two men slide down a chimney together. One face is covered with soot while the other is clean. Who washes?
“The one with a clean face."

“How can you be so slow witted?” shouted the Rabbi. “The man covered in soot can see it on his hands, smell it in his nose, and taste it on his lips. Of course he goes to wash.

Again the Rabbi turned, again the young man pleaded, and the Rabbi recountedthe exact same riddle one last time.

“They both wash,” the young man cried triumphantly.

“Your taste for stupidity is bottomless,” said the Rabbi, sadly shaking his head. “Where is the chimney perched on a peasant’s hut large enough to accommodate two grown men? On the face of it, the whole problem is clearly non-existent. It is that face as well as your own that must be cleaned.

And with that he walked away.
*        *        *
Such paradoxical stories permeate the mystical literature of all the great religious traditions, from the enigmatic koans of Zen to Plato’s dialogue the Parmenides, and the first time I read one back in college I was hooked. On one level they don’t make sense, but on another they make so much sense that my head hurts. They suggest an infuriating insight into thinking itself: an insight that is just as profound as it is confounding.

My own “Rabbi,” Louis R. Mobley, the founder of IBM’s fabled executive school, insisted that successful leaders don’t know different things. Theythink in utterly different ways. Success is not a function of what we think but how we think. Mobley used to say, for example, that the problem with lawyers is that they are only good for one thing: telling leaders why they shouldn’t do it.

Setting aside the validity of this preemptory indictment, it does make the point that all thinking is not alike. All the skills and knowledge in the world will not make a successful entrepreneur of a man who thinks the future is perpetually half empty.

Very few of us stop to consider that thinking itself has been through a long evolutionary process. As the Rabbi points out, there are actually four kinds of thinking, and a great leader must master all four.

I: Magical Thinking
Magical thinking reigned supreme before the dawn of science, and is usually associated with a superstitious reliance on the stars, luck, grace, signs, coincidence, karma, omens, destiny, or God’s will.

But magical thinking is more than superstition. Creativity and innovation rely on the magical ability to envision an alternate reality not yet born. Movies depend on the magic of our “willing suspension of disbelief” as we cry real tears at some fictitious sorrow superimposed on a big blank screen. Empathy, compassion, and love would be impossible if we could not magically place ourselves in another’s shoes. Art produces something called beauty that is much more than a mass of pigments on a canvas. And where would science be without its magical thought experiments like Einstein imagining himself riding on a light beam, taking in the view?

In business magical thinking survives and thrives in every nascent entrepreneur who just knows that it is his destiny to succeed, and uses this self-confidence to magically enthrall a room full of cold-blooded venture capitalists. If you are on a roll at blackjack and the casino swaps out dealers or shuts down the table, you are the victim of a business decision precipitated by the magical thinking of people who don’t believe in magic.
Magical thinking believes that great leaders and even great companies are somehow magically born not made. It argues that business is art not science, and that the Harvard Business School is merely a well-endowed monument to the fact that those who can’t do teach. The management philosophy of magical thinking is “gut feel” and Nike’s “Just do it.”

When the Rabbi reminds the young man that his riddle relies on an impossible premise he is warning against an over-reliance on magical thinking.

II: Modern Thinking
Modern thinking is the enlightenment thinking that ended the Dark Ages and ushered in Newtonian science. Modern thinking thinks that the truth is objective and knowable. Modern thinking looks at the world through the lens of either/or, right/wrong, good/bad. It lives in a billiard ball universe governed by cause and effect, and its true believers think that the “important” things in life are matters of principle, not of taste.

Modern thinking is macro, top-down, and outside-in. In politics, modern thinking assumes that if we want to change people we must first change the environment. Every attempt at macro “social engineering” is an example of modern thinking. It lies at the heart of Karl Marx’s famous dictum that “being determines consciousness” (i.e. economics determines individual psychology) as well as the stimulus/response deterministic psychology of B.F. Skinner and Pavlov’s dog. Modern thinking is the masculine principle of left brain Aristotelian logic, where A and ~A are always and everywhere mutually exclusive.

In business, modern thinking generates every management “system” based on “scientific” laws, policies, and procedures. These systems emerge from things like time and motion studies, and strive to remove the “intangibles” of human nature. Every time an employee punches a time clock he is experiencing modern thinking, and every A/B split marketing test relies on modern thinking as well. Many people (myself included) are attracted to business because of its clean-cut either/or aspects. After all, you either hit your sales target or you don’t.

When the young man jumps to the conclusion that either the sooty face or the clean face will exclusively be washed he is betraying an overreliance on modern thinking.

III: Postmodern
Postmodern thinking insists that truth is “relative,” and owes its genesis to Einstein’s Theory of Relativity. Where modern thinking emphasizes either/or objectivity, postmodern thinking argues for the both/and of subjectivity. If modern thinking looks for the objective exclusivity of A and ~A, postmodern values the inclusiveness of “diversity.”

Postmodern thinking privileges opinion over principle and in extreme cases may question the very existence of things like “truth” and “facts.” Hamlet’s remark that “there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so” is a prototypical example of postmodern thinking. When modernity insists that important things are matters of principle, postmodernity replies that the most important principle of all, truth, is merely a matter of opinion.

Postmodern business thinking emphasizes culture rather than impersonal, bureaucratic, and scientifically inspired management systems. We see it in the transition away from rules and policies toward a reliance on the bottom-up, inside-out, unifying power of mission and purpose. Postmodern thinking values people, customers, and corporate responsibility over the impersonal metrics of the bottom line. If the either/or approach of modern thinking is a masculine win/lose business mentality, the postmodern is feminine win/win.

In economics the Efficient Market Theory argues in a postmodern way that the Market in its collective wisdom always knows more in a bottom-up way than any stock picker, government regulator, or central planner can ever know. In politics it is interesting to note that conservatives, while they abhor relativistic theology or morality, often argue for the bottom-up approach of markets both economically and socially.

When the young man thinks that by having both the clean man and the sooty man wash he will finally satisfy the Rabbi, he is thinking in a postmodern way.



IV: Paradoxical Thinking
The fourth type of thinking is the ancient yet emergent Paradoxical Thinking. Paradoxical thinking is found in ancient philosophical and religious texts like Zen Buddhism or Plato’s Parmenides. T.S. Eliot’s famous poem Four Quartets echoes the Christian mystic, St. John of the Cross, with lines like these.

In order to arrive at what you do not know
You must go by a way which is the way of ignorance.
In order to possess what you do not possess
You must go by the way of dispossession.
In order to arrive at what you are not
You must go through the way in which you are not.
And what you do not know is the only thing you know
And what you own is what you do not own
And where you are is where you are not.
-T.S. Eliot

Dismissed or derided for centuries by the Western scientific tradition, it is ironic that paradoxical thinking is emergent precisely because science has been forced to turn to things like Hawkings Paradox to deal with the apparent contradictory nature of the universe. As the famous scientist Sir Arthur Eddington said, “Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.” Trying to figure out what happened before the Big Bang becomes paradoxical because time itself didn’t exist “before” the Big Bang. It’s trying to figure out what was going on before there was a before.

Recently paradoxical thinking has trickled from science into business through buzz phrases like creative destruction, controlled chaos, coopetition, getting outside the box, fuzzy logic, breaking the frame, and the Zen of business. These self-contradictory concepts try to capture the fact that even business may be stranger than we can imagine, and that the old models are no longer adequate.

Paradoxical thinkers hold apparent contradictions in tension by moving among magical, modern, and postmodern thinking as the situation requires while still being able to act decisively. This means paradoxical thinkers are open-minded and close-minded at the same time. The paradox underlying paradoxical thinking is that its openness is anything but indecisive, passionless, or lacking in principled convictions.

In a recent book review in the Wall Street Journal, The Long Way Around, Andrew Stark makes a compelling case for paradoxical thinking. Stark argues for what he calls the “profit-seeking paradox” which he defines as “the best way to maximize profit is not to seek to maximize profit.” In order to be successful, we must master the paradoxical idea that it is in our own self-interest to forget our self-interest. For as every great salesman knows, the more he forgets about his product and commissions in order to selflessly serve his customers, the more product he moves and the more commissions he makes. Every great leader knows that the more he focuses on helping others succeed, the more successful he becomes.

But as Stark masterfully points out, the paradoxical secret underlying this paradoxical formula is that it must be sincere.

“Even if you know that keeping workers on the payroll [in a recession] will elicit their over-the-top effort, the hope of gaining their over-the-top effort cannot be your motive for keeping them on the payroll.”

Stark goes on to say that the profit-seeking paradox embodies the “soul-building wisdom of Zen-style spirituality.” He argues that its corollary, the happiness paradox, lies at the heart of successful life. The happiness paradox states that the more we strive to attain happiness, the less happy we become, and the more we focus on something bigger than ourselves, the happier we get. In effect, the shortest distance between two points is Stark’s long way around.

*      *     *
All four types of thinking are essential. When the Rabbi reminds his would-be student that the man with the clean face will objectively see a dirty face and therefore wash, he is reminding the young man of the importance of modern objective thinking.

When he argues that the sooty man will eventually figure it out on his own, he is doing the same for postmodern subjectivity.

When he tells the young man that the whole riddle relies on an impossible situation, he is warning him against the danger of magical thinking. But since riddles and thought experiments rely on imagining impossible realities, by choosing a riddle in the first place, the Rabbi is paradoxically introducing the young man to the value of magical thinking as well.

But when he finally admonishes the young man to first clean his own face, he is pointing at the “soul-building Zen-style spirituality” that is the real answer to his riddle and the riddle of life. Paradoxically, the only way the young man can gain the wisdom he seeks is by ridding himself of the selfish motivations that inspired him to arrogantly approach the Rabbi in the first place, loudly proclaiming his qualifications. Humility and a spirit of service is an answer to the Rabbi’s riddle that never occurred to the young man.

What Stark refers to as the profit-seeking paradox and the happiness paradox lie at the heart of the Rabbi’s riddle, and of Eliot’s admonition that in order to possess what we do not possess we must go by the way of dispossession. But it remains to be seen whether either the young man in the story, or those of us who are privileged to hear it, will take T.S. Eliot’s, Stark’s, and the Rabbi’s wisdom to heart.

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Big companies, stolen ideas

GOVERNANCE MATTER By SHIREEN MUHIUDEEN

Shireen Muhiudeen exposes how some big unscrupulous companies are stealing ideas from smaller companies.





IN our reviews of various public-listed companies (PLCs) across the region, one issue has cropped up again and again: The appropriating of a small company's ideas by a much bigger company.

The law protects all fruits of the human imagination from songs to sketches and sonnets but not ideas. You cannot own an idea, and this is why big companies can exploit smaller ones, which tend to be more innovative and enterprising because that is the only way they can survive.

Typically, before Company B can value a business transaction by Company A, Company B has to ask Company A to give it a Request For Proposal (RFP). Generally, Company A will do so as long as Company B signs the usual Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA).

Now, quite often, if the company demanding information is larger than the company disclosing it, the former will keep asking for more and more data from the latter, on the pretext that it is just doing due diligence.

The smaller company will then end up giving the larger one all the ideas it has in the hope that that will seal their business deal.

In this way, the larger company gets to know all it wants about the smaller company's knowhow. Worse, the larger company claims that as its own.

This is a cheap means for the larger company to expand its own business model. In fact, when we spoke to one such large company, it said that it “reviewed” all applications by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), paying particular attention to any ideas or opportunities that the company could exploit for its own ends!

Business ethics

Legally, it is not doing anything wrong. But siphoning another's ideas under the guise of doing due diligence goes against every grain of business ethics.

Recently, we reviewed a company that had a big business plan to tap global funds, using an idea that it presented as its own. The thing is, we knew of a smaller company that had presented exactly that idea to a PLC some six years ago.

We had followed every development in that negotiation, from the signing of the NDA right up to the excuses given by the PLC as to why the evaluation process was taking so long.

That smaller company has since taken the PLC to court, alleging the breach of a condition precedent contained in a subscription and shareholders agreement, as well as a failure to fulfill its obligations.

But, in trying to get justice, it is the smaller company that suffers the most; it cannot forge ahead because it is being weighed down by long legal proceedings, to say nothing of how much it has to spend for lawyers to argue its case.

When asked about the smaller company's grievances, the PLC brushed off all queries and said, “Oh, these are just small, insignificant issues”, implying that they would not affect its own business model. Shouldn't they, though? If the PLC is selling itself with ideas siphoned off another company, what does such siphoning say of the sustainability of its business model?



This big and not so beautiful PLC goes ahead and launches its “latest” ideas while daring the smaller company that came up with these ideas to send it a cease-and-desist letter. It can be so arrogant because it knows only too well that it has much deeper pockets than the aggrieved company and so will simply push the latter over the edge with mounting legal fees.

Currently, the law gives recourse to aggrieved smaller companies based on what they have actually lost to the bigger companies. But surely it should be based on what smaller companies could have earned but for the idea-siphoning?

From this, it is evident that bigger companies are taking advantage of the current disconnect between how much the courts will make them cough up and how much smaller companies really suffer financially from someone else using their good ideas.

Stamina

This means that it is still cheaper for big companies just to use a smaller one's ideas, even if that smaller player takes them to court for doing so.

Not surprisingly, bigger companies tend to operate in this manner because smaller companies simply do not have the stamina and finances to protect their good work.

This is often the case even if the law is overwhelmingly in the smaller company's favour. The smaller company simply cannot afford the very long time taken for justice to be done.

But something, clearly, needs to be done for fairness. Now, directors of companies are required to declare in their annual reports that “they are responsible for all information and representations contained in the financial statements” and that “the financial statements have been prepared in conformity with generally accepted

accounting principles” and that “the reflected amounts are based on the best estimates and informed judgment of the management with an appropriate consideration as to materiality”.

This being the case, perhaps there should also be a statement to the effect that they have not infringed another company's intellectual property, have not settled out of court or that they have no pending legal proceedings regarding the use of another's ideas.

As Malaysia gears itself up to be a full-blown knowledge-based, or K-economy, it becomes critical to protect SMEs, especially in the telecoms sector where this is very prevalent. If the law does not ring-fence their rights, they will be forced to look beyond Malaysia to flourish.

Shireen Muhiudeen is managing director of Corston-Smith Asset Management in Malaysia, a fund management company that makes investment decisions based on corporate governance

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Making Debt Ratings Count, Downgrades US Bonds!

Making debt ratings count



A QUESTION OF BUSINESS By P. GUNASEGARAN



S&P’s negative outlook on US bonds may help make rating agencies a wee bit more relevant


IS it “better late than never” or “too quick to jump the gun?” That depends, of course, on whom you talk to.

US president Barack Obama will say it is the latter but quite a number of people in the finance industry believe that rating agency Standard and Poor’s negative outlook on US long-term sovereign bonds should have been proclaimed at the start of the world financial crisis in 2008/9.

The US, along with a number of developed countries around the world such as the UK, Australia, Japan, Germany and neighbour Singapore hold an AAA rating for their sovereign long-term bonds.

That simply implies that these countries are the least likely to default on their debts in comparison to other countries.

The US has had its highest rating continuously from the forties. Since the US dollar emerged as the dominant reserve currency – one in which other countries keep their surplus assets – it has a major advantage over most other countries. Its (USA) external debts are in its own currency.

That means that there is hardly any likelihood of default because if the US economy and US government finances are in deep trouble, then all the US government has to do is to put in place measures which will increase the supply of US dollars – printing money to repay its debts. That has other undesirable consequences of course but that’s another story.

For developing countries and even developed countries it is often the case that their external debt is denominated in US dollars or some other reserve currency such as yen or euros and they must earn foreign exchange (that is a surplus of exports to imports of goods, services and capital) to eventually repay these debts. They can’t resort to the printing presses.

When they are in danger of default, the standard prescription is bone-crunching austerity and a steep currency depreciation to make exports more competitive and imports prohibitively expensive so that there is a surplus of reserve funds to repay debts.

Currency depreciation increases the amount of debt in terms of the base currency and therefore such a prescription often leads to prolonged hardship for these countries, as we saw during the Asian financial crisis of 1998. This crippled growth in many Asian countries for years afterwards and resulted in a relative drop in living standards.

So, why does S&P put a negative rating outlook on US long-term bonds when there is little or perhaps, no risk that the US government cannot repay its US dollar debt? That’s a question that is difficult to answer.



Using, S&P’s own definition, “a credit rating is Standard & Poor’s opinion on the general creditworthiness of an obligor.” Its hard to see how such a definition alters anything in terms of the US, even if S&P is now tying its rating to how the US solves its budget deficit problems, unless it is expanding “creditworthiness” to include more than just ability to repay.

For those countries who have substantial US dollar assets in the form of US bonds, bills and other assets, the S&P ratings have hardly mattered at all because all of them know that the US will pay its US dollar obligations and they don’t need the rating agencies to tell them that.

For them they have to make a crucial call on returns – essentially, how much earnings the assets bring in and how the US dollar moves relative to their base currencies.

If the US’ financial position is poor, that will eventually be reflected in the value of its currency. If the US dollar falls like how some Asian currencies did in 1998 and the aftermath, the ratings by agencies such as S&P will count for nought.

Perhaps, that is what is persuading S&P to extend the scope of “general creditworthiness” to something beyond the mere ability to repay a debt. That cannot be a bad thing and one hopes more credit rating agencies will follow suit and show the courage of their convictions and thereby make themselves a wee bit more relevant.

Managing editor P Gunasegaram thinks that the world is far from making the adjustments needed to prevent a recurrence of the ongoing world financial crisis.

Related post:  

Who rates the raters ?