Malaysian making the leap into 2012 Doomsday?

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Making the leap into 2012

Along The Watchtower By M. Veera Pandiyan

Political partisans are predicting dire scenarios against each other as the 13th general election looms.

LIKE the start of all years, 2012 began on a cheerful note, but don’t expect the goodwill to last for long, though. Unlike the usual 365 days, 5 hours, 49 minutes and 12 seconds taken by the Earth to complete its orbit around the Sun, this one is a leap year with 366 days.

A leap year occurs every four years when an extra day is included at the end of February.

There are some interesting traditions linked to leap years. Appa­rently, according to the Irish, it is okay for a woman to propose marriage to a man on Feb 29.

The practice has been traced to the 5th century after St Bridget – the patron saint of blacksmiths, boatmen and chicken farmers among others – complained to St Patrick (patron saint of Ireland) about women having to wait too long for men ask for their hand.

The tradition spread to Scotland with Queen Margaret’s decree in 1288 that a woman could demand any man she fancied to wed her on Feb 29.

It seems the men were prevented by law from turning down such a proposal. Fortunately for the reluctant grooms, the penalty was not a custodial sentence – only a fine in the form of a forced kiss, a dress made of silk or a pair of gloves to the rejected woman.

An unpopular girl then might not have gotten hitched but at least she would have had the chance to stock up her wardrobe by proposing to as many disinterested suitors as she could corner.

Such stories are unlikely to amuse the millions of Doomsday theory believers today who are sure that the end of the world is finally nigh.



Yes, it is the anticipated year of the apocalypse for those caught up in the much-prophesised end of times.

The common date earmarked by the Doomsday believers citing the Mayan calendar – the anticipated alignment of planets, solar flares, super volcanoes and polar magnet shift – is this Dec 21.

Periodic predictions of apocalyptic scenarios are not necessarily new. They have been regularly foretold by religious preachers, pseudo-scientists, fiction writers and such. Time and again, all of them have been proven wrong.

Among the notable predictions was that by William Miller who in 1840 warned of the second coming of Jesus Christ and impending end of the world between March 21, 1843, and March 21, 1844.

About 100,000 of his followers sold their belongings and went up the mountains to wait for the end. Nothing happened. He changed the date to Oct 22 and this too passed without incident.

His loyal followers, however, went on to form yet another highly successful religious movement.

It has become a routine for evangelist Harold Camping, who predicted the end of the world twice last year - on May 21 and Oct 21.

In 1992, he wrote a book called 1994?, which proclaimed the close to be in mid-September 1994.
Isn’t it amazing that people continue to believe in such characters in spite of their continuous unfulfilled prophesies?

In Malaysia, it is more of a case of political partisans predicting doomsday scenarios against each other after the 13th general election, expected to be held within the first six months of the year.

The heat is already rising in the build-up to the much-awaited verdict in the sodomy trial of Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim Anwar, 64, on Monday (January 9, 2012).

The High Court will deliver its verdict on whether Anwar so­­domised his former aide Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan, 27, at a Desa Damansara condominium unit in Bukit Damansara on June 26, 2008.

The de facto PKR leader faces a maximum of 20 years in prison and whipping if found guilty under Section 377B of the Penal Code.

PKR deputy president Azmin Ali has since announced that Pakatan Rakyat would mobilise 100,000 people at the Jalan Duta Court Complex in Kuala Lumpur to show support for Anwar.

Another mass gathering is also being planned in Penang after the verdict.

The police have urged supporters to stay away from the gathering but it doesn’t look like the faithful will be deterred.

What can the non-partisans ex­­pect from such a gathering?

The Crowd: The Study of the Po­­-pular Mind by French physician Gustave Le Bon, who originated the theory of crowd psychology in the 19th century, provides some clues.

According to Le Bon, people usually change as they join a crowd because it fosters anonymity with individuals and become less conscious of their actions.

While he did not believe that members of an intense crowd were deranged, he nevertheless argued that the structure of assembly had a powerful influence on the behaviour of members.

He said when a crowd reached a critical level of arousal, individuals lost their power to resist suggestions from influential members, resulting in strong emotional reactions spreading with contagious results.

“The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduces them,” he wrote.

“Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master, whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”

Happy New Year? Hope so.

Associate Editor M. Veera Pandiyan likes this note carved on an Assyrian tablet in 2800 BC: There are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end: bribery and corruption are common. Children no longer obey their parents, and everyone is writing a book.

What are your New Year's Resolutions?

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Banks tighten lending rules amid uncertainty

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By DANIEL KHOO danielkhoo@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: The competitive environment for loans by banks will likely abate in the months ahead despite a general slowdown of loan growth which is expected this year, analysts said.

This is because banks in Malaysia are also expected to put their own interest first and extend loans to the consumer sector more cautiously given the uncertain backdrop amid the economic turmoil in the US and eurozone.

“It is quite normal to be more cautious as dark clouds gather over the horizon. However, I don't expect the slowdown to be as bad as it was back in 2009 when the sub-prime crisis hit the US,” said a banking analyst from one of Malaysia's top three banks by market capitalisation.



“Given the state of the global economy, it is timely that Bank Negara imposes stricter rules on lending to continue to keep lending activities in the country at a healthy state. A healthy banking system will only ensure a healthy economy,” the analyst added.

Bank Negara's more stringent revised lending rules came into effect on Jan 1.

Show-and-tell: Data released by Bank Negara showed that loan growth in November 2011 moderated further to 12.8% from a 13.1% and 13.8% growth in October and September 2011 respectively >>

Effective this year, the debt service ratio of a loan applicant is calculated based on the person's net income rather than gross income, which means the calculated income of the applicant is based on his or her take home salary after tax deduction and Employees Provident Fund contribution.

The softening competition for loans also means that loan growth is likely to slow further from the preceding two months.

Data released by Bank Negara showed that loan growth in Nov 2011 moderated further to 12.8% year on year (yoy) from a 13.1% and 13.8% yoy growth in October and September 2011 respectively.

CIMB Investment Bank's analyst Winson Ng had in a report on the sector outlook said that there was still a downside to the industry's loan growth even though it had declined for the two months.

“We are projecting total loans growth of 12-13% for 2011, followed by a softening to 9-10% in 2012 when consumer loans are expected to increase 10-11% and business loans are expected to advance by 8%-9%,” Ng said in his report.

Despite the apparent slowdown in loan growth, Maybank Investment Bank said that the scenario might not be as bad as it seems because there was a pick-up in loan applications and approvals, with a slight improvement in spreads in November 2011.

Maybank analyst Desmond Ch'ng said that the total system loan growth in 2012 was expected to slow further to 9.4% while loan growth was expected to be at 12.4% in 2011.

Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank said in a report that Bank Negara could resort to cutting interest rates should global economic conditions deteriorate further and that it expected Bank Negara to employ a more proactive approach to “begin cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.”

RHB said that based on its sensitivity analysis, the Alliance Financial Group Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd would be more adversely impacted by a cut in interest rates due to their higher proportion of variable-rate loans.

No fresh start to 2012

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MUSINGS By MARINA MAHATHIR

The last year was one where there were particularly high levels of obliviousness. Why not, in 2012, for the sake of doing something different, have a campaign called “End Stupid Statements”.

IT’S 2012 and if the Mayans are to be believed, the world ends this year. For me, the world didn’t start well because we got up on New Year’s Day to dry pipes. No water in the toilets is not what you call a fresh start to the year.

Could someone make a resolution to replace the old pipes in Bangsar, please?

Otherwise, we Bangsarites will go on a shower strike and stink the place out until our demands are met.
And, yes, our smelly mob will assemble in the streets to protest.

For some other Malaysians, especially some students, the New Year certainly did not start well at all. It makes one sigh again with frustration.

Let us see this clearly; the only people capable of using force on others are the ones with the batons and guns.

Generally, those aren’t civilians, and especially not students.

If this is the way the year is going to start, then we have learnt nothing from 2011, nor will we do anything new in 2012.

We will continue to exhibit our fears by clamping down on those who think differently, or who are simply different.

We display our paranoia by immediately looking for who is behind those who think differently.

We cannot imagine that people can think for themselves, without someone telling them how and what to think and do.

It’s the ultimate indictment of our education system, that every single thing anyone does, especially if contrary to what the establishment wants, must be attributed to a sheeplike disposition to be led.

Well, surely, if those who are contrarian are doing it because they are sheep, then those who are conformists are also sheep.



After all, everyone went through the same school system, no?

The last year, for me, was one where there were particularly high levels of obliviousness among those who rule us.

Oblivious to what people really think and want being chief among them.

Whether it’s deliberate or not, I can’t tell, but somehow there’s mild comfort in believing that it’s just natural gormlessness, and not willful blindness.

I am hoping that this year will be a year of greater imagination.

It would be nice if our leaders suddenly had the imagination to trust their people to be able to think on their own.

And to trust that people thinking on their own is not necessarily a bad thing, nor necessarily a move that will backfire.

I’d also like our leaders to start believing that their people are generally good people, who get on with one another and simply want to live their lives as best as they can.

And they can do all that without any interference from those who think they are leading us.

I don’t need anyone to tell me how to get on with my neighbours; I already do.

I do need someone to tell off those people who keep telling me to constantly be suspicious of my neighbours, including when they are nice to me.

Apparently this is only because they want to dislodge me from my faith.

In that case, my being nice to them must be equally effective at dislodging them from their beliefs.

Why not then have “Be Nice to Your Neighbours” campaigns?

Indeed, why not in 2012, for the sake of doing something different, have a campaign called “End Stupid Statements”.

Every statement uttered by a public figure that simply does not stand up to scrutiny gets printed on a big banner and then symbolically thrown into a giant dustbin at Dataran Merdeka.

My first candidate: Jews and Christians Are Taking Over the Country! (My test for the credibility of that statement is to ask: what for?).

I’m sure it’ll be a full dustbin. But what am I saying?

We have an election to look forward to, which means there’ll be an endless supply of dumb utterances from all sides of the fence.

We should arm ourselves with deflectors to shield us from the inanities that are bound to rain upon our poor heads.

Or helmets at the very least, because it’s bound to injure our craniums. But let me remain optimistic.

The first person that says all Malaysians are equal under our Constitution gets my vote.

Or who says, men and women are equal, or who outlaws child marriage.

And I’ll even give some grudging respect to the first person who says: “I lied, I’m sorry, I’ll step down now.”

But I suppose that would be like expecting to see porcine flying objects. Life trundles on, folks.

Try and have a good year!

Malay psyches: race & social class in politics

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 Malay social class comes into play

CERITALAH By KARIM RASLAN

While race remains an issue in the Malaysian political discourse, the matter of social class is now becoming a key determining factor.

FOR the last 50 years, Malaysian politics has been defined by race. From the Malayan Union controversy of 1946 to the riots of 1969, Malay fears over non-Malay economic might have been at the heart of the Alliance’s (and later Barisan Nasional’s) electoral calculations.

But times have changed and while race continues to simmer, a new long-forgotten issue – social class – is fast becoming a key determining factor.

Moreover, the public is increasingly sceptical of those who promote Malay rights. They view such figures in much the same way as small-town Midwesterners look on the antics of K-Street lobbyists in Washington; and just as with Americans, there is mounting outrage with every successive incidence of establishment corruption and abuse of power.

In this respect, Malaysia is merely following global trends as demonstrators across the world – from New York and Madrid to Cairo and Damascus – take to the streets to express their frustration and alienation with prevailing economic policies.

Still, it’s critical that we understand how and why this has happened because the forces at work are not one-off or temporary.

Instead, they are irreversible and overwhelming.

Technology is the key catalyst. By observing how the media has been buffeted by these changes, we can begin to learn in turn how “race” has slipped from the forefront of Malaysian political discourse.

So, let’s return to the years immediately after the 1969 riots. At that stage, news distribution was a highly-centralised business. The industry was top-down, capital-intensive and easily subject to political controls.

Printing presses, TV and radio stations were located in specific places and the channels linking them to audiences were similarly defined and determined.



This, along with a vast expansion of the government apparatus (from operational ministries to agencies and state-owned enterprises) allowed ideologues to set in motion a series of policies intended to unify and homogenise the Malay community.

In the process, a once-diverse and disparate Malay/Muslim world — don’t forget the Malays were a predominantly maritime and littoral people – was forcibly melded into one, with the aristocratic “bangsawan” ethos of Umno at its core.

Muslims of Indian, Javanese, Acehnese and Hadramauti origin were encouraged to do away with their specific cultural practices as Malay-ness, as defined by Kuala Lumpur-based ideologues, became paramount.

Geographical differences were likewise ironed out in order to present a united voice as Kedahans, Johoreans and Terengganu-ites became Malay first. In this push, however, the biggest losers were Malays from the two most developed states – Perak and Selangor – where a sense of local identity was totally eradicated.

The media was complicit in this agenda, strengthening the centre as a sense of local sentiment was denigrated as backward.

Of course, in East Malaysia, the process was all the more intense as pressure was brought to bear on Bajau, Orang Sungai and Melanau communities to become explicitly Malay – thus denying their distinctive local identities.

Similarly, the left-of-centre, socialist traditions exemplified by the late Burhanuddin Helmy were also swept aside and vilified. However (and ironically) Umno was never able to dislodge Kelantanese parochialism, permitting PAS a foothold that it exploited for its own Islamist ends.

Umno political strategists were only to realise much later that the disappearance of the “left” was to open up the ideological terrain for the Islamists – many of whom modelled themselves on Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.

Indeed, the Islamists’ exclusion from the centres of power meant that they were able to focus on issues of social justice, benefiting in turn from the growing disgust with mainstream politics.

However, the IT explosion post-2000 has broken the establishment’s control over both the news and the media in general.

Indeed, the proliferation of voices unleashed by technology has been both deeply distressing and disorientating for those who believe in a monolithic Malay identity centred on the royal houses and the government-sanctioned Islamic beliefs and practices.

Many in the old elite (some of whom are actually quite young) remain Canute-like in their rejection of the new realities.

So where are we heading? First off, Malays as Muslims are still united by their faith. Nonetheless, many differences will continue to emerge as people explore intellectual and spiritual frontiers on their own.

Secondly, the keenest divide will be the differences between the haves and have-nots (determined, of course, by proximity to political power) within the Malay community as urban English-language speaking Malays continue to forge ahead, leaving their monolingual brothers and sisters in the lurch.

Furthermore, the increasing demographic dominance of the Malays – 50.1% of our total population of 27.5 million (more if we include the non-Malay bumiputra communities’ 11.8%) – means that the old anxieties of being overwhelmed by others no longer seem as dire.

This, therefore, is where the Malay community stands in 2012.

Politician, hero or zero? RPK hits back at critics!

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Anwar no more Raja Petra’s hero

Analysis By BARADAN KUPPUSAMY

Raja Petra Kamaruddin, in an interview with the media, gives his take on Pakatan Rakyat and its leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, a man he once admired and supported wholeheartedly.

BLOGGER-in-exile Raja Petra Kamaruddin has emerged to give an interview to several media representatives, during which he spoke on a wide range of topics covering the future of Pakatan Rakyat, its leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the prospects of the coalition in the next general election.

The interview appeared yesterday in The New Sunday Times, Berita Minggu, Mingguan Malaysia and online news website Malaysia Today.



His emergence at this crucial juncture is a boon to Barisan Nasional as it prepares for the hustings.

In a nutshell, what he spoke about can be summarised in his own words: “I can support the Opposition, without supporting Anwar.

“It is not a sin or crime if I don't support Anwar,” says the political pundit who is more popularly referred to as RPK.

That statement summed up his current position vis-a-vis politics and the big battle for power ahead.

He has lost confidence in Anwar as Pakatan leader.

He believes Pakatan cannot capture Putrajaya and he says the Opposition must look beyond to a time when it can exist and keep going without Anwar.

The key to politics today is to create a two-party system, to lay the foundation for it and not to capture power now.

On a personal note, he believes the Sodomy II trial was fair compared with the first sodomy trial in the late 90s and that Anwar is a victim of a honey trap in the latest tribulations.

Raja Petra is certainly no ordinary blogger.

He was the first man in the country to combine digital technology with a flair for writing and place it at the disposal of the man he admired and supported wholeheartedly Anwar.

He kept the Anwarites' flame alive through the dark years of Anwar's sacking by then prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the reformasi struggle and Anwar's imprisonment, with his Free Anwar website.



After Anwar's 2004 release, Raja Petra set up the Malaysia Today website which, with his talent for story-telling, turned into the foremost political news blog.

He “escaped” from the country and ended up as an exile in Britain following several warrants for his arrest.

In addition, several people have also obtained bankruptcy petitions against him.

In Britain, he set up the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM) with lawyer Haris Ibrahim and they proffered several independent candidates, i.e. lawyer Malik Imtiaz but their scheme did not take off because of criticisms from Pakatan leaders and supporters.

The Opposition saw the third force, as MCLM wanted to be, as a trojan horse of Barisan.

His Malaysia Today website is not as widely read as it was before but Raja Petra, as an activist and commentator on political development, remains influential as this wide-ranging interview suggests.

His take on Anwar remains his most important contribution to contemporary politics, as he was such an ardent supporter previously.

He says if Pakatan does not capture Putrajaya, and he gives reasons why it can't do it, Anwar would slide into irrelevance and eventually into oblivion.

The struggle has always been to bring change and not to free Anwar as in Nelson Mandela's case, to fight and bring down apartheid and not to seek his release.

While Raja Petra is by no means a supporter of Barisan, he reserves his harshest criticism to Anwar's failure to lead Pakatan.

He faults Anwar's leadership shortcomings.

He says Anwar is a great speaker at ceramah but he is not an administrator and points to the many times Anwar has gone overseas since he was appointed economic adviser to the Selangor government three years ago.

“Shouldn't you be staying home, running the state? Running the party? Running the coalition?” he said.

He also urges Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak to take the “bull by the horns” in introducing reforms and not just scratch the surface or indulge in cosmetic changes.

“Najib must be prepared not only to take a knife but a chainsaw and cut whatever he needs to cut.”

Being who he is, supporters of Pakatan would be unhappy with Raja Petra's criticisms of the coalition.

The three parties of the coalition seem to be fighting each other for the spoils of victory in the next general election, he says.

It is a coup for the Government to get no less than Raja Petra himself to line up against Pakatan and its leader Anwar.

His influence on Pakatan supporters was seen in the 2008 general election.

He was out campaigning, asking voters to vote for change.

This time, he is asking voters to not to vote blindly for any “donkey or monkey” but to pick candidates, from either side who would truly serve the rakyat.

In justifying his criticism of Pakatan, he says he is not supporting Barisan and he is not saying Barisan is the best government.

RPK hits back at critics

PETALING JAYA: Controversial blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin has hit back at critics who accused him of selling out to Barisan Nasional.

In his latest post on his website, he said he had expected the barrage of criticisms after he slammed Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in an interview to selected mainstream media and an online portal.

Raja Petra spoke on a variety of issues including Anwar's possible irrelevance, his sodomy trial and the Selangor government.

Raja Petra dismissed criticisms by commentators in various online portals, saying that what they said did not matter to him.

“The more important issue is: Which category are you in? Are you amongst the less than four million Malaysians who voted the Opposition in the last general election? Or are you amongst the more than 11 million eligible voters who did not vote Opposition, did not vote at all, or did not even register to vote?

“Yes, I value your comments, but only if you fall in the first category. If not, then your comments are of no significance,” he added.

Raja Petra stunned many when he questioned whether Anwar was the best candidate to lead the country, saying he “wasn't impressed” with the latter's performance in Selangor.

Meanwhile, PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution accused Raja Petra of being a “hired Umno blogger” and part of a larger plot to smear Anwar's name ahead of the latter's sodomy trial verdict on Jan 9.

He told an online news portal that Umno and Barisan were determined to see Anwar jailed, adding that the attacks against Anwar were meant to deflect attention from the Government's alleged financial scandals.

Selangor Mentri Besar Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim's political secretary Faekah Husin said the state was willing to pay Raja Petra's transportation costs from overseas to return to Malaysia and shed light on his bribery claims.

She claimed many were of the view that Raja Petra was desperate to return home, hence the attacks on Anwar.

PKR vice-president N. Surendran said Raja Petra's comments were “unfair, untrue, unsupported by any believable evidence and plainly libellous”.

Some life-affirming thoughts for a tech New Year

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by Chris Matyszczyk

 

(Credit: CC KhE/Flickr)
 

Viewing the tech world, as I do, largely from the fringes, I sometimes wonder just how seriously it takes itself.

Make a joke about Apple and invective will descend on you. Make a joke about Google+ and expect to be told to "eat a large bowl of raw d***"-- oh, and to be followed by a lot more people on Google+.

The New Year will, no doubt, see more intensity surrounding tech companies, tech products, and tech personalities.

Some people will work beyond their physical and mental capacities. Some people will believe that killing Google, Apple, Facebook is everything that exists in life. Some people will lose perspective entirely about what's important and what is mere group-speak.



So to celebrate the New Year, here are the words of a palliative-care nurse who's spent much of her life listening to people on their deathbeds. These truths were first published on the Arise India forum but were then republished by the extraordinary writer Kelly Oxford.

These, then, are what this nurse saw as the Top Five Regrets of the Dying. Perhaps they might seem obvious, perhaps not. But their raw reality becomes evident when, as the nurse says, people realized they were experiencing their last few days on Earth.



1. I wish I'd had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me. This was, apparently, the most common regret. In tech terms, think of everything that is expected of people. Many of those who leave college believe that tech is the only place worth working these days. They don't always consider whether they'll enjoy it or not. Most people in the world are now being told that if they're not on a social network, they don't exist. So they spend hours every day peering into screens. The life that is true to you isn't always easy to identify, never mind to live.

2. I wish I didn't work so hard. Self-evident, perhaps. But surely still something worth thinking about in a world in which personal insecurity is now being traded as if it were just another commodity. We're scared, so we work harder. The harder we work, the more scared we become that this is all there is and all there ever will be.

3. I wish I'd had the courage to express my feelings. The nurse talks about how people developed illnesses that she believes were directly related to the "bitterness and resentment" they felt as a result of living a false life. In tech terms, how many people truly believe they are creating a new tomorrow? And how many feel they are staring into their screens in order to line someone else's pocket and ego, without ever themselves being appreciated for what they do and who they are?

4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends. Yes, these people never had Facebook. But are those Facebook friends really your friends? Have you let go of your real friends because you're too busy with your Facebook friends? As the nurse puts it: "It is all comes down to love and relationships in the end. That is all that remains in the final weeks, love and relationships." Which would mean real relationships.

5. I wish that I had let myself be happier. "When you are on your deathbed, what others think of you is a long way from your mind," says the nurse. And yet here we are in the real, techified life, where what others think of us matters more than ever. If someone says something bad about us on the Web (something that is so very, very easy and therefore likely), we are mortified--more so, because the bad words will always live in some electronic physical existence. The bad words will never go away because we can find them. Ergo, so can everyone else. Yet what this nurse tells us is that the opinions of others matter far, far less than we might think at the time.

Perhaps this seems a somber way to wish everyone a Happy New Year. But the one thing we have that those of whom the nurse writes don't is time. Here's looking forward to a very happy 2012 and, hopefully, one that is very true to each of our individual selves.

Chris Matyszczyk

Chris Matyszczyk is an award-winning creative director who advises major corporations on content creation and marketing. He brings an irreverent, sarcastic, and sometimes ironic voice to the tech world. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET.

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Enter the Dragon Year 2012 , with hope, fear, or both?

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China moves to centre stage

THE STRAIT TIMES by IVAN KRASTEV

The most striking contrast when comparing today’s American world with a possible Chinese world of tomorrow is how their people experience the world beyond their borders.

FOR a European these days, thinking about the future is disturbing. America is militarily overstretched, politically polarised, and financially indebted. The European Union seems on the brink of collapse, and many non-Europeans view the old continent as a retired power that can still impress the world with its good manners, but not with nerve or ambition.

Global opinion surveys over the last three years consistently indicate that many are turning their backs on the West and – with hope, fear, or both – see China as moving to centre stage. As the old joke goes, optimists are learning to speak Chinese; pessimists are learning to use a Kalashnikov.

While a small army of experts argues that China’s rise to power should not be assumed, and that its economic, political, and demographic foundations are fragile, the conventional wisdom is that China’s power is growing. Many wonder what a global Pax Sinica might look like: How would China’s global influence manifest itself? How would Chinese hegemony differ from the American variety?

Generally, questions of ideology, economics, history, and military power dominate today’s China debate.

But, when comparing today’s American world with a possible Chinese world of tomorrow, the most striking contrast consists in how Americans and Chinese experience the world beyond their borders.

America is a nation of immigrants, but it is also a nation of people who never emigrate.



Notably, Americans living outside the United States are not called emigrants, but ‘expats.’ America gave the world the notion of the melting pot – an alchemical cooking device wherein diverse ethnic and religious groups voluntarily mix together, producing a new, American identity. And while critics may argue that the melting pot is a national myth, it has tenaciously informed the America’s collective imagination.

Since the first Europeans settled there in the 17th century, people from around the world have been drawn to the American dream of a better future; America’s allure is partly its ability to transform others into Americans. As one Russian, now an Oxford University don, put it, ‘You can become an American, but you can never become an Englishman.’

It is, therefore, not surprising that America’s global agenda is transformative; it is a rule-maker.

The Chinese, on the other hand, have not tried to change the world, but rather to adjust to it. China’s relationships with other countries are channelled through its diaspora, and the Chinese perceive the world via their experience as immigrants.

Today, more Chinese live outside China than French people live in France, and these overseas Chinese account for the largest number of investors in China. In fact, only 20 years ago, Chinese living abroad produced approximately as much wealth as China’s entire internal population. First the Chinese diaspora succeeded, then China itself.

Chinatowns – often insular communities located in large cities around the world – are the Chinese diaspora’s core. As the political scientist Lucien Pye once observed, ‘the Chinese see such an absolute difference between themselves and others that they unconsciously find it natural to refer to those in whose homeland they are living as ‘foreigners.’

While the American melting pot transforms others, Chinatowns teach their inhabitants to adjust – to profit from their hosts’ rules and business while remaining separate.

While Americans carry their flag high, Chinese work hard to be invisible. Chinese communities worldwide have managed to become influential in their new homelands without being threatening; to be closed and non-transparent without provoking anger; to be a bridge to China without appearing to be a fifth column.

As China is about adaptation, not transformation, it is unlikely to change the world dramatically should it ever assume the global driver’s seat. But this does not mean that China won’t exploit that world for its own purposes.

America, at least in theory, prefers that other countries share its values and act like Americans. China can only fear a world where everybody acts like the Chinese. So, in a future dominated by China, the Chinese will not set the rules; rather, they will seek to extract the greatest possible benefit from the rules that already exist.

Ivan Krastev is Chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a Permanent Fellow of the Institute for Human Sciences, Vienna.