China and Asean edge towards better ties, mostly because of the risk of a deteriorating relationship.
ASEAN and China made moves during the week to upgrade ties, or at least
to talk about the prospect of formal deliberations to do so.
The
unusually roundabout manner of this, even for Asean diplomacy, was
because much of the basis for it is the highly unlikely and delicate one
of contested maritime territory in the South China Sea.
All contending parties have had to tread gingerly, with fingers and toes crossed. But other events have also played a role.
Asean
countries had already made clear that regardless of disputes with each
other or with China, no external party should get involved. It was not
difficult thus to put
US diplomats on notice.
So when
Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton toured
South-East Asia this time, with an
appearance at the Asean Ministerial Meeting in Phnom Penh, she talked
about economic cooperation rather than a “pivot” to “rebalance” against
China. It contrasts with her last foray into this region and another
Asean meeting.
However, Clinton’s office also had an official
announce that the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands claimed by both China and
Japan
fell under Article 5 of the US-Japan security treaty. The official
declared that the uninhabited islands were under Japan’s jurisdiction,
bolstering Tokyo’s claim, and that the US was thus obliged to respond in
any conflict.
That made officials in Beijing jump. It also made
them seem more conciliatory on the Asean front, in a set of disputes
over the
Spratly Islands.
China declared on Wednesday that it
wanted to strengthen “communication and cooperation” with Asean members
with mutual benefit all-round. On the same day at the meeting in Phnom
Penh, Thailand announced that it would not allow disputes in the
South
China Sea to disrupt cooperation between Asean and China.
Thailand
is serving as coordinator between Asean and China over the next three
years. It is not among the four Asean countries that are claimants to
the Spratly Islands along with China and Taiwan.
It has been 10
years since Asean and China signed the Declaration on the Code of
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), a non-binding agreement
covering “soft issues” like maritime research and environmental
protection.
Since then, Asean has wanted to move on to a binding
Code of Conduct for the South China Sea (
COC). But while China is all
for the DOC, saying that it had yet to be implemented fully, it wants to
move slower on the COC.
It is still unclear how far serious
talks will go in creating a new status quo for the contending claims. On
present form, despite all the pleasantries and avowed goodwill, any
talks at all are unlikely to achieve anything substantial.
For
decades, no specific talks had even been envisaged, let alone conducted
satisfactorily and concluded successfully. Now differing positions are
being taken over the DOC and the COC, which does not help, amid a
general feel good feeling about everyone wanting to feel better, which
may not get anywhere.
Prof Zhang Yunling is director of the
Centre for the Study of Global Governance at Renmin University in
Beijing. The following is part of an exclusive interview he gave during a
recent ISIS conference in Kuala Lumpur.
Q. China’s rise has largely been economic; how else will it express its ascendancy in the region and the world?
A.
China’s rise has reshaped the region’s economic structure, which has
been a very positive development. It will continue to rise, and in other
aspects, as well as play an important role.
Compared to the
past, there are two differences today. First, it is based on an open
economic structure, with close links with other countries, not top-down
but in equal partnership as in production networks.
Secondly,
there is institutional development, not just gestures as with the old
China. There are equal rights, equal treatment of other countries, which
are rules-based and multi-layered. We are moving ahead, but it also
needs time.
There is greater movement of people, through travel
and tourism, and people get to know each other better. There are also
more projects for (international) assistance, training and
capacity-building.
There is anxiety over China’s military
build-up, but it is normal for China to develop its military along with
its (economic) development.
One concern is a change in the
existing order because China was not a player before. Japan has
historical (baggage), the US has been dominant in the past, so there
should be a place for China.
Another concern is over dispute
settlement: previously there has been cooperative behaviour, now there
are bigger armed forces. Yet no other country has so many unsettled
disputes as China on both land and sea.
>How do you see China-US ties, today’s most important trans-Pacific bilateral relationship?
This is a very complex matter for China. For others, it is about how to accept a rising China and its role in a positive way.
Germany
and Japan before were not bound by factors as China is today:
agreements, commitments, shared interests. How China would manage these
should not cause other countries to see it as a threat; it is now in a
transitional period, without much experience of it.
The US is
very important to China in economic terms. So China has to carefully
manage relations with the US, to avoid any possible confrontation and
seek any possible cooperation.
Both countries have such a close
relationship which never occurred before between a rising superpower and
an existing superpower. They have to live together and work together.
US
technology and its economy are still dominant and important for China.
But the US sees China as a threat, and ideologically wants to see China
turn into a democratic country.
The US has always tried to make
China more like it over the past 100 years, but not successfully – yet
it is still trying. US pressure is very clear.
China wants to
have its place, and the US has to prepare for that. It is trying to
contain China, so China sees this as a threat.
But it’s not a
zero-sum game as with the
Soviet Union, because of the close interests
between the US and China. The door is open, not closed.
> What is the status of China’s proposals to promote military cooperation with South-East Asian countries?
There
is now no military cooperation. We should have regular defence
ministers’ consultations and exchanges of military personnel.
There
should be joint maritime operations for accidents at sea, for example.
Also, on non-traditional threats at sea (piracy, terrorism, human
trafficking, narcotics, illegal immigration).
There have been
exchanges between China and Indonesia, and cooperation between China and
Malaysia in producing military equipment.
> How has China’s perception of Asean changed over the years?
China
sees the Asean process positively, acknowledging Asean’s role in
creating a stable and cooperative region. There is the
China-Asean FTA,
with other cooperative projects.
All this is quite different from the past.
China
hopes Asean can play a stronger role in the region for more cooperation
and institution-building. Asean needs to be more united to work
cooperatively towards a real Asian century.
Asean can help create
a new regional institution. Asia should be a security provider, since
there has been too much reliance on outside security providers.
Behind The Headlines By Bunn Nagara
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