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Tuesday, May 30, 2023

New entry of civil aviation: China's C919 passenger plane

 

This photo taken on May 28, 2023 shows a C919, China's self-developed large passenger aircraft, getting ready for its first commercial flight in east China's Shanghai. C919 kicked off its first commercial flight from Shanghai to Beijing on Sunday, marking its official entry into the civil aviation market. (Xinhua)

 

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China's C919 passenger plane completes inaugural commercial flight, showing China's efforts in self-innovation in high-end manufacturing industry

C919, China's self-developed large passenger aircraft, completed its inaugural commercial flight from Shanghai to Beijing on Sunday, creating a milestone in China's aviation industry, which aims to compete with global players such as Boeing.

Developed by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), the C919 aircraft, China's first self-developed large jet airliner, is important proof of China's strength in self-innovation in the high-end manufacturing industry, and its solid market performance will foster further confidence in future orders and among customers, Chinese experts said.

The C919's inaugural flight departed at 10:32 am from Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport and landed at Beijing Capital international Airport at 12:31 pm, where it was welcomed with a special water-salute ceremony.

The highly anticipated flight, codenamed MU9191 flying from Shanghai to Beijing was flown by China Eastern Airlines, and carried around 130 passengers.

"More than 20 years ago, I heard many people in the aviation field talking about their dream of making a big plane. I am so excited to be one of the first passengers to fly on the C919," a passenger named Shi Ding told the Global Times on Sunday.

Shi said he arrived at the Shanghai airport at 7:40 in the morning, and there were around 500 people attending the inaugural ceremony. "I have been closely watching the development of C919 for years. As an aviation fan, I am so proud that China now has such an advanced aircraft manufacturing industry."

The video clips he sent to the Global Times showed passengers waving national flags and the cabin filled with a euphoric atmosphere, with excited passengers taking photos and shooting videos. The carrier even prepared meals selected by poll by the passengers.

Both the business and economy class on the C919 use a new generation of domestically designed and produced cabin seats. Among them, eight business class seats use an all-aluminum alloy frame structure with a cradle design and a backrest that can reach 120 degrees. The distance between the front and rear seats exceeds 1 meter.

The C919 cabin has a width of 2.25 meters, and the middle seat in the economy class triple seat is 1.5cm wider than the two seats on the end, bringing passengers more comfort.

The C919 project was launched in 2007 and completed its first test flight in 2017. On September 29, 2022, it obtained the Type Certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the country's aviation sector regulator.

With between 158 and 168 seats, and a flight range of 4,075 to 5,555 kilometers, the C919 is designed to have the same level of specifications as the popular Airbus 320 and Boeing 737.

According to China Eastern Airlines' plan, the first C919 plane will initially be operated between Shanghai and Chengdu, capital city of Southwest China's Sichuan Province, before flying more routes.

China Eastern has also set up special teams including cabin services to ensure security and guarantee services.

New starting point


"Based on earlier full preparations, the maiden flight is a new starting point for China Eastern," Li Yangmin, vice chairman of the Shanghai-based China Eastern Airlines Corp, was quoted as saying at the inaugural ceremony held in Shanghai on Sunday.

Li said the airline will take this commercial operation as an opportunity, and strive to meet market demand with high-quality supply, allowing people in China and even around the world to use the plane.

Before the flight, other Chinese airlines also expressed interest in the plane. On Thursday, Ma Chongxian, chairman of Air China Ltd, said that in 2010 the company signed a purchase agreement with COMAC for 20 C919 aircraft, and continued to pay attention to the progress of the C919.

China Southern Airlines vice chairman Han Wensheng said on the same say that his company is paying great attention to the C919 aircraft and maintaining close communication with COMAC.

COMAC said in January that the company expects to reach an annual production capacity of 150 C919 planes within five years, and has already received more than 1,200 orders, according to media reports.

Chinese experts said that the commercial fight is of great significance to China's equipment manufacturing industry, as the civil aircraft manufacturing industry is a symbol of a country's technological and industrial strength.

For China's aviation manufacturing industry, China's commercial aviation must have its own place in the world, in terms of not only market size and development potential, but also equipment manufacturing, Wang Ya'nan, chief editor of Beijing-based Aerospace Knowledge magazine, told the Global Times. "We must have our own manufacturing capabilities for regional aircraft and large commercial airliners," he noted.

We should focus on core technologies in key fields and continue to work together to tackle bottleneck problems, we must put safety and reliability first and eliminate all potential hazards, and we must do a good job in the large aircraft sector, said China's top leadership at the end of September last year that when the C919 passenger jet was issued the type certificate by China's civil aviation regulator, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

COMAC, the developer of the plane, extended its warm congratulations over the flight on its WeChat account with a line from an ancient poem that translates as "Till the day the strangled dragon vibrates in fresh rainfall, it will surely roar to the sky like a flying crane." 

Photo: Courtesy of China Eastern AirlinesPhoto: Courtesy of China Eastern Airlines


Global competition


Hours after the conclusion of the inaugural commercial flight, global plane manufacturers sent messages of congratulation.

"On the occasion of the successful commercial maiden flight of C919 today, we would like to extend our sincere congratulations to China Eastern Airlines and COMAC," Boeing said on its official WeChat account, while Airbus also sent warm congratulations to China Eastern Airlines C919 on successfully completing its first commercial flight.

In an earlier interview with Global Times in April, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said that COMAC has brought new competition to the market. "We have great respect for any competitor in the market," he said.

The C919's first commercial flight means that China's extraordinary aviation capabilities have started to accept the challenges of the market, Qi Qi, an independent market watcher, told the Global Times on Sunday.

With the accumulation of flight hours, there will be more confidence in potential orders and among customers, as well as more growth in the entire large aircraft industry chain, Qi remarked.

A market forecast report released by COMAC in 2021 predicted that China's aviation market will receive 9,084 passenger aircraft with more than 50 seats over the next 20 years, with a value of about $1.4 trillion. It is widely believed that a trillion-dollar level aircraft industry chain is gaining momentum with the commercialization of the C919.

As for future flights, Qi said it is still too early to talk about exploring the international market at this stage.

Prior to this, it is necessary to obtain airworthiness certifications from the civil aviation authorities of other countries, and obtaining the type certification from Federal Aviation Administration and European Union Aviation Safety Agency will be an important indicator of how the C919 will explore the international market, Qi said.

It has been predicted that the C919 will still face many difficulties amid a changing international political backdrop, and the difficulties may be even greater than expected. As a strategic project of China's national aviation industry, the goal of the C919 will not waver, Wang said. China will mobilize and pool all its scientific research and industrial resources to push this project to a successful end.

"For a developing country like China, which is under enormous development pressure, we have no other choice but to face up to the difficulties," Wang noted. 

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The rise of China’s Silicon Valley, Zhongguancun (ZGC) (中关村) - Top scientist, entities gather at popular forum 

 

The rise of China’s Silicon Valley, Zhongguancun (ZGC) (中关村) - Top scientist, entities gather at popular forum


BEIJING: Northwestern Beijing’s Zhongguancun, known as “China’s Silicon Valley,” currently finds itself at the nexus of world attention on scientific and technological innovation.

Running from May 25 to 30, the ongoing 2023 Zhongguancun (ZGC) Forum being held in the Chinese capital’s innovation hub, has drawn top scientists, institutions, and well-known innovation and entrepreneurship entities from across the world to discuss international cooperation on scientific and technological development.

Decades ago, people who lived here never imagined that this formerly suburban community of Beijing could command the world’s attention one day, nor could they foresee a national high-tech industrial development zone rising from their farming fields.

Last year, there were 4,244 companies in Zhongguancun with annual revenue exceeding 100 million yuan (US$14.13mil or RM65mil), which is 2.2 times that of 2012. Among them, 11 companies surpassed the trillion-yuan revenue mark.

Over time, Zhongguancun has become a flag-bearer of China’s innovation, bearing witness to the rapid development of Chinese technology, with the continuous emergence of significant sci-tech innovations, increasing investment in research and development, continuous improvement of innovation mechanisms and strengthened international cooperation.

China’s remarkable expertise and extensive experience, combined with its longstanding commitment to technological innovation, position it to make unique contributions to the world by sharing its technological achievements and experience, said Bill Gates, co-chair and trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, at the forum.

Rise of Zhongguancun


From the sparsely populated outskirts of Beijing to an electronics industry cluster in the 1980s, and then to a national-level innovation hub and China’s highland of sci-tech development, Silicon Valley’s Chinese counterpart has emerged as a symbol of innovation and has been dubbed a remarkable chapter in the history of China’s reform and opening up due to its pioneering spirit.

It was not until 1988 that the first privately owned high-tech firm was registered in Zhongguancun.

The enterprise, named Yonyou, obtained the science park’s first private enterprise license, numbered “SY0001.” Over the past decades, Yonyou developed from a two-person software service company into a leading provider of enterprise cloud services.

Wang Wenjing, Yonyou’s chairman and CEO, still remembers this milestone day for Zhongguancun. “That day, I slipped out of the office where I was working to attend the inaugural meeting of Zhongguancun becoming the Beijing New Technology Industry Development Pilot Zone. It was so exciting,” recalled Wang.

In Zhongguancun, a wave of innovations and many “world’s first” breakthroughs have emerged in frontier technological fields in the past decade, while a batch of homegrown sci-tech industry leaders such as Xiaomi, Baidu and BOE are at the forefront of sectors such as smart manufacturing, deep learning, and semiconductor displays.

In Zhongguancun National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone, the total revenue of enterprises reached 8.7 trillion yuan (RM5.7 trillion) in 2022, which is 3.5 times that of 2012. Value added in 2021 hit 1.3 trillion yuan (RM847bil), marking 3.4-fold growth compared to 2012.

Measures supporting the establishment and development of foreign-invested research and development centres have been introduced in the zone, attracting over 300 multinational companies to set up regional headquarters and research centres. More than 130 Fortune Global 500 companies have established branch offices in the zone.

Riding on the rapid development of Zhongguancun, Beijing has established itself as a crucial hub in the global innovation network, with nearly a hundred universities and over a thousand research institutes, which not only provide support for its own economic and social development but also inject sustained momentum into global progress and development.

Ranking third globally in the number of “unicorn” companies and topping the Nature Index global science city rankings six consecutive times, Beijing has demonstrated its prowess in sci-tech advancements, witnessing the emergence of world-class innovations in fields such as quantum information and artificial intelligence, said Yin Li, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and secretary of the CPC Beijing Municipal Committee.

As the beating heart of the innovative city, Zhongguancun drove the rapid advancement of Chinese technology and transformed the forum into an international platform for China’s active engagement in global scientific and technological innovation.

“Since its inception in 2007, 13 editions of the ZGC Forum have been held successfully, serving as a vital international platform for China’s active involvement in global scientific and technological innovation, and its extensive participation in global science and technology governance,” said Wu Zhaohui, vice-minister of science and technology.

Shared future

At the peak of a new round of sci-tech revolution and industrial transformation, Beijing gives full play to its strengths in education, science, technologies and talent, coordinates sci-tech and institutional innovation, accelerates the construction of a world-leading sci-tech park, and aims at the leading positions in future-oriented sectors.

Beijing’s efforts in technological innovation are propelling China’s societal transformation and upgrading in various aspects, from people’s lifestyles to business models, from state governance to entertainment, while also providing momentum for global economic and social development.

During the 2020 Zhongguancun Forum, Long Guilu, the deputy-director of the Beijing Academy of Quantum Information Science and a professor at Tsinghua University, unveiled the world’s first practical prototype for direct quantum communication.

At the exhibition area of this year’s ZGC Forum, a myriad of intelligent technological products and applications, including painting robots, surgical robots, robotic butlers, intelligent coal mining and online hospitals, are shaping a promising vision of future life for people from across the globe.

More and more global players in different sectors eye the huge advantages of the Zhongguancun area, and choose to create in China for the world. Among the trendsetters is the French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi.

“China has emerged as Sanofi’s second-largest market and remains a core strategic market, playing a pivotal role in driving future growth,” said Zhu Hailuan, the vice-president of Sanofi Greater China, adding that the company has established an Internet hospital team, and is actively pursuing digital transformation to better address the healthcare needs of Chinese patients.

Speaking to Xinhua, Zhu stated that the company is delighted to see the development of an innovative ecosystem in the field of biotechnology in China, thanks to the growing emphasis on technological innovation by the Chinese government at all levels in recent years.

Zhongguancun’s unleashed innovation potential has also made it a magnet for global scientists and researchers. Xie Xiaoliang, a pioneer of single-molecule biophysical chemistry, coherent Raman scattering microscopy and single-cell genomics, returned to Zhongguancun in 2018 after being a faculty member at Harvard University for two decades.

“Science is the foundation for addressing all kinds of transformations. It is the mission of scientists, as well as the epochal significance of the ZGC Forum, to utilise scientific innovation for the betterment of humanity,” Xie noted — China Daily/ANN 

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"The New China Playbook – Beyond Socialism and Capitalism".

 

Sunday, May 28, 2023

"The New China Playbook – Beyond Socialism and Capitalism"

 

 

The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism

.

Keyu Jin

Associate Professor of Economics

Department of Economics

Keyu Jin

LSE

https://www.lse.ac.uk › economics › people › faculty
Faculty page of Dr Keyu Jin. ... Keyu Jin. Associate Professor of Economics. Department of Economics. Email. k.jin@lse.ac.uk. Room No. SAL.1.17.

 

Summary

“Keyu Jin is a brilliant thinker.” —Tony Blair, former prime minster of the United Kingdom

A myth-dispelling, comprehensive guide to the Chinese economy and its path to ascendancy.

China's economy has been booming for decades now. A formidable and emerging power on the world stage, the China that most Americans picture is only a rough sketch, based on American news coverage, policy, and ways of understanding.

Enter Keyu Jin: a world-renowned economist who was born in China, educated in the U.S., and is now a tenured professor at the London School of Economics. A person fluent in both Eastern and Western cultures, and a voice of the new generation of Chinese who represent a radical break from the past, Jin is uniquely poised to explain how China became the most successful economic story of our time, as it has shifted from primarily state-owned enterprise to an economy that is thriving in entrepreneurship, and participation in the global economy.

China’s economic realm is colorful and lively, filled with paradoxes and conundrums, and Jin believes that by understanding the Chinese model, the people, the culture and history in its true perspective, one can reconcile what may appear to be contradictions to the Western eye.

What follows is an illuminating account of a burgeoning world power, its past, and its potential future.

* This audiobook edition includes a downloadable PDF of charts, graphs, and other key visual aids from the book.

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Debate emerges over college students raising children; Chinese demographers call for more open-mindedness

 

 

  Children ride hoverboards at a kindergarten in Nanjing, capital of East China's Jiangsu Province on April 21, 2023. Photo: VCG   Gett...

 

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Debate emerges over college students raising children; Chinese demographers call for more open-mindedness

 

Children ride hoverboards at a kindergarten in Nanjing, capital of East China's Jiangsu Province on April 21, 2023. Photo: VCG

 

Getting married and childbearing in college is not something unusual in the modern world, but a student raising a child on campus still being a holder of multiple scholarships is mind-boggling.

Smiling and a sense of happiness can always be seen on face of Xiaoli who is now in her college senior year from Southwest China's Guizhou Province when she brought her suckling child in her dormitory and had her roommates playing with the infant or spent leisure time around her campus.

Seemingly she is able to handle the child-raising, a heavy work in nature while not letting her study fall behind. She was even awarded with university scholarship and national ones for high grades in study.

Xiaoli posted about just 10 videos on her social media account about her child-raising student life in university, but it has already made her story one of the most-discussed controversial subjects in the country.

Some netizens are amazed at how the 23-year-old is able to be a mom while being a student with good grades at the same time, exclaiming that's "a coolest life that they ever saw."

But some criticized raising a baby at an age when normally even they could not figure out whom themselves are, is merely irresponsible. Others argued Xiaoli's story should not be encouraged considering the costs of raising a child in the country, not to mention for a student.

More open-mindedness


Getting married and bearing a child at an appropriate age has always been a reasonable option for university students since a regulation on university students by the Ministry of Education in 2005 has scrapped previous requirement that an approval must be obtained from their university when they register for a marriage.

Though getting married and having a child is an option for marriageable students, the average age of young generations to enter into their first marriage has actually been gradually moving back over years.

A report on China's population development was released by the YuWa Population Research think tank last year showed comparing with other countries China has the highest legal age for marriage, with male in their 22 and female in their 20. But the average age of first marriage in China is 28.67, the data a decade ago was 24.89, according to "China Census Yearbook 2020" released by the National Bureau of Statistics in June 2022.

"In Chinese society, the mainstream cognition on marriage tends to link with personal career. For students who have yet financially independent, getting married and even raising a child is not a common option for Chinese college students," Song Jian, a demographer from the Center for Population and Development Studies of the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times.

The fact that Chinese students usually live in dormitory in some way also restricts them to consider having a child on campus a top priority in their study time. Some other obstacles are natural difficulties to balance a heavy study load and raising a child, Song noted.

But Chinese students still value marriage. A survey result showed that university students believe that having 1.86 children in a family would be ideal, and more than 80 percent of them believe two children are ideal as part of their future family.

However, the average number of children actually sought by college students themselves in the future in this survey was 1.36, and nearly 50 percent of college students wish to have less than two children.

The gap - between the ideal number of children and the desired number of children - mirrors the obstacles and reluctance of young generations to have children, Li Ting, a professor at the School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China and lead author of the controversial survey, told the Global Times.

To boost fertility rates among young people, at this year's two sessions, a Chinese political advisor suggested making available birth insurance services to Chinese college students.

Society should provide more support to students with master and doctoral degrees to arrange their marriage properly, such as allowing them to alter their study schedule, and offering financial assistance and allowing them to enjoy birth insurance and medical allowances, He Dan, director of China Population and Development Research Center, who is also a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), noted in the proposal.

Official data showed in 2021, a total of 125,800 doctoral students were enrolled, 509,500 were studying and 72,000 were graduating.

"For the young generations, getting a job, building a family and then getting married usually overlaps with each other in a short period of time. If the university or the society could ramp up efforts to help students who have the desire to realize their marriage in university, I don't think it is a bad thing," Song noted.

"But I won't say getting married and raising a child in universities is an act should be discouraged or encouraged. We just need more open-mindedness to accept that it is one of available options for college students," Song said.

"What the country can do is able to clear the way for students who would like to get married and have a child in their college through some policies, but down to earth, getting married and bearing a child boil down to personal choice," Yuan Xin, a professor of demographics from the School of Economics at Nankai University told the Global Times.

A commentary piece by the Beijing Youth Daily proposed to provide some convenience to students who opt to get married and bear a child in university, such as allow those students to choose fewer lessons or receive a gap year so as to reduce their pressure.

The greater the independent choice space for students, the more diversified the learning and growth of college students will be. In a pluralistic environment, public opinion will no longer make a fuss about college students getting married and having children, the commentary noted.

For Xiaoli, she believed raising her child while studying is a rational decision for her to make. "I got married legally and having a child is a normal. Childbearing in college was a decision supported and blessed by every member of my family."

"I'm not from a rich family but my husband can take good care of us financially. Grandmother of the child also helps me take care of my child."

Xiaoli said she has never regretted her choice, but she does not encourage others to follow her way of living. "We're not running everything in a smooth way. But life is ours. I go for it when I believe I can handle it, no matter how others see it." 

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Reversing bankruptcy trend

 Amendments to Insolvency Act passed unanimously

/

Two new categories for bankruptcy discharge under Insolvency Act... 

Insolvency Act amendment allows two new categories of ...

 Debt trap: Azalina disclosing that 40% of those who were declared bankrupt are between the ages of 35 and 44. — Bernama

CLOSE to 40% of those who were declared bankrupt are between the ages of 35 and 44, says Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said.

They made up 37.38% or 17,917 individuals who were declared bankrupt as of December last year.

She said a total of 47,929 individuals were declared bankrupt during the same period, of whom 10,378 were under 34 years old.

Personal loans are the main cause of bankruptcy at 49.22% compared to other loans.

“Urgent intervention must be done to address the rising number of bankrupts in the country,” she said when tabling the Insolvency (Amendment) Bill 2023.

The minister said gender-wise, more men were declared bankrupt compared to women.

“A total of 25,104 men were declared bankrupt compared to 8,912 women from 2019 to date,” she added.

Azalina said the department had initiated measures, including extensive outreach programmes to increase financial awareness, including among secondary and university students. Following the passing of the amendments to the Insolvency Act, individuals aged 70 and above will be considered for discharge from bankruptcy.

They will not be bankrupt if the Insolvency director-general determines that they no longer have the ability to contribute to or pay for the administration of their estate.

This is among the salient points of the amendment, which was passed by the Lower House unanimously by a voice vote.

According to Insolvency Department records, 19,913 bankrupts aged 70 and above are eligible for relief through certification from the director-general, if they meet conditions.

With the passing of the amendment, another category of individuals will be discharged from bankruptcy – those unable to manage themselves due to mental illness that has been verified by a psychiatrist at a government hospital.

“The amendment is in line with the government’s intention to preserve the welfare of bankrupts. They no longer have the means to cooperate and contribute to the bankruptcy administration,” said Azalina.

During the debate session, lawmakers from both sides requested more awareness of financial literacy among the youth to prevent the rise of bankrupts in the country as well as urgent assistance for those facing financial crises.

Former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin urged the government to provide more flexibility in the conditional discharges offered to those who have been declared bankrupt.

During the Perikatan administration, the threshold for bankruptcy was raised to RM100,000 from RM50,000 under the Covid-19 Act to prevent Malaysians from facing financial crises during the three-year pandemic.

Jelebu MP Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias also called for an improved and updated syllabus on financial management to be introduced at secondary schools. 

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Wednesday, May 24, 2023

The Bankrupting of America

 




 

US debt ceiling impasse and a default’s impact on Malaysia remains a concern

 

US debt issue may affect global demand


PETALING JAYA: With the United States currently being embroiled in a debate as to whether it should raise its debt ceiling before the June 1 deadline, concerns over the impact on Malaysia of the world’s largest economy defaulting on its borrowings were understandably raised among certain quarters.

This is all the more relevant when one considers the fact that the United States is Malaysia’s third-largest trading partner, with World’s Top Exports reporting that Singapore, China, the United States, Japan and Hong Kong contributing to more than half of Malaysia’s export revenue – 51.8% to be exact – in 2022.

The website also revealed that the United States accounted for US$38bil (RM173.5bil) or 10.8% of Malaysia’s export income in 2021, again behind only Singapore at 15% and China 13.6%.

Thus, it is not difficult to understand the oft-used adage, “When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold”, including of course, Malaysia.

Chief economist for HSBC Global Research Frederic Neumann had remarked on Monday that should the debt ceiling issue be drawn out of proportion, it could lead to a depression of US growth, and adversely impact Malaysian exports stateside, possibly even reducing global demand because of an increase in financial uncertainty.

The current debt ceiling is known to be at US$31.4 trillion (RM143.4 trillion), and reports from yesterday indicated that a resolution could be imminent.

Shedding more light on the matter, Centre for Market Education chief executive Dr Carmelo Ferlito said the debt ceiling can be raised again, but only if it can be voted through the House of Representatives, which has a Republican majority.

“The Republicans are trying to use the deadline to pressure President Joe Biden to agree to spending cuts.

“On April 26, the House approved a bill to raise the debt limit by US$1.5 trillion (RM6.85 trillion), but only on the condition that spending would be cut to 2022 levels and then capped at 1% growth per year,” he told StarBiz.

A simple analogy to illustrate the ceiling standoff is the case of a parent providing a teenage child with a credit card.

If the teenager exceeds the spending limit, and asks the parent for an extension of credit, it is only natural for the parent to go over the spending habits of the child before deciding to provide more credit, which has to be repaid.

If the ceiling is not raised and the US officially defaults, Ferlito said the consequences for other economies – including Malaysia – should be looked at more in the light of a general financial turmoil that the default could cause rather than the more immediate link with American bonds that firms or governments may have. 

“We do not see direct repercussions on Malaysia; rather, we foresee indirect effects in case of (a US) default, coming from a global financial turmoil,

He explained: “We do not see direct repercussions on Malaysia; rather, we foresee indirect effects in case of (a US) default, coming from a global financial turmoil.

“If there is a default, which is doubtful, there will be a financial shock and the entity of such a shock will determine how much it would impact Malaysia.”

He elaborated that a potential default and its effect on an exporting country like Malaysia can be seen as two separate phenomena, a sovereign debt default; and the business relationship between private entities.

Ferlito added: “Even if the US defaults, private companies can still transact independently from the scale of the mutual business relationship. What we have to fear more are the indirect consequences.”

Economists at Coface Services South Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd, Bernard Aw and Eve Barre, believe a breach in the debt ceiling would result in outlay cuts currently funded with borrowing while the US dollar would weaken, elevating yields.

“Such a default would also have an impact on global financial markets, which rely on the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency and as a safe asset.

“For Asian exporters, a weakening of the dollar against their currencies would dampen their competitiveness, including for Malaysia as the United States represents its third-largest export market up to 2022,” they told StarBiz.

Although acknowledging that a negative impact on the US economy from reducing public spending would depend on the extent of those cuts, they pointed out that if an agreement leads to deep spending decreases, economic growth for the United States could be slower than the already sluggish 1.2% that Coface is forecasting for 2023.

Aw and Barre opined: “This would have a direct impact on Malaysia by reducing US demand for Malaysian goods but also on foreign investment.

“In 2021, the United States was the first source of foreign direct investment flows to Malaysia, accounting for roughly a third of the total.”

On the flipside, they projected that sharp cuts in US public spending are unlikely to be approved by the Senate, as it is controlled by the Democrats.

Meanwhile, approaching the problem from an investment perspective, chief investment officer for Tradeview Capital, Nixon Wong, echoed the economic view that a US default would have global ripple effects, including on the FBM KLCI.

“A default on US federal debt would disrupt imports of electronics and manufactured goods from Chinese factories to the United States, resulting in slower growth of orders in the entire supply chain that includes Malaysia.

“Reduced spending in the United States would lead to slower aggregate demand and import growth globally,” he said.

The effect could likely be seen on export-oriented companies on the local bourse, he said, including manufacturers of electrical and electronic and rubber products, as well as in the producers of metal, optical and scientific equipment.

He added that although Malaysia’s trade volume with the United States may be smaller compared to China, the repercussions from reduced US spending would still impact Malaysia’s exports, whether directly or indirectly.

History has shown that American political leaders have always managed to raise the debt limit before it becomes a crisis, and it is likely that this pattern will continue, Wong said.

“While there are debates and partisan divisions in Congress, it is expected that Republicans will seek spending cuts before supporting the raising of the debt ceiling.

“After all, the main agenda is to prevent a catastrophic event or severe fallout in the United States and global financial markets,” he observed. 

By KEITH HIEW

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US President Joe Biden touted that the debt-ceiling deal will help the US avoid economic collapse, but experts warn that the US debt-ceiling crisis is a systemic problem that will erupt periodically, and that rising US debt is severely undercutting the credit of US assets and status of the US dollar.
 
 
 

 US urged against passing risks to world amid growing chance of a US default

A Chinese official on Tuesday warned of the significant spillover effect of US domestic policies and urged Washington to avoid passing on domestic risks to the rest of the world just to protect its own interests. The comment came after US leaders failed to reach a deal on the debt ceiling issue, with the deadline to avert the first-ever default approaching rapidly.

 

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