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Sunday, December 15, 2024

Heralding the Golden Age of Cryptocurrency

■ Presidentelect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment

■ Analysts projecting Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 by end-2025

■ The outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, but risks remain

THE cryptocurrency world is buzzing with speculation that bitcoin could reach an unprecedented US$200,000 by 2025. While bitcoin has yet to stabilise around the US$100,000 mark, its meteoric rise in 2024 has emboldened investors and analysts to project a bullish future for the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitwise Asset Management, a prominent voice in the crypto sphere, has described the upcoming year as the Golden Age of Crypto.

According to the firm, the regulatory landscape in the United States has significantly improved following the 2024 US elections. President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment.

“We believe we are entering the Golden Age of Crypto,” Bitwise analysts, led by chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen, state in the group’s report.

Bitwise expects Crypto’s magnificent three – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solanato – to hit new all-time highs in 2025, with bitcoin leading the rise to trade above US$200,000.

In addition to Bitwise, other analysts projecting bitcoin to reach US$200,000 include Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, and analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani.

Kendrick forecasts that bitcoin could hit this milestone by the end of 2025, driven by institutional investments in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFS).

In a recent note, he stated that Standard Chartered’s target of US$200,000 by 2025 is “achievable”, adding: “We would become even more bullish if bitcoin experienced accelerated adoption by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds, or the establishment of a potential US strategic reserve fund.

“We anticipate institutional flows to continue at or exceed the pace set in 2024. Microstrategy, for instance, is ahead of its Us$42bil threeyear plan, suggesting its purchases in 2025 will likely match or surpass those of 2024.”

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s analysts attribute their bitcoin price target of US$200,000 by end-2025 to unprecedented demand stemming from spot bitcoin ETFS managed by leading asset managers, according to media reports.

Trump effect

Essentially, crypto has emerged as a clear winner in the 2024 US elections, giving it a brighter regulatory outlook in the United States, Bitwise notes.

For one thing, Trump has announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve and nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s earlier comment that “crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay” reflects the administration’s pro-crypto stance. The reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has historically taken a sceptical view of digital assets, adds another layer of optimism.

Similarly, Bernstein analysts attribute bitcoin’s rise to Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies. They point out that his plan to position the United States as a global leader in the crypto space and his choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto advocate, to lead the SEC have bolstered market confidence.

Record highs

Bitcoin has since cooled to below US$95,000 at the time of writing, after reaching an alltime high of US$103,992 earlier this month.

This marks a 141.72% increase year-to-date as of Dec 6, 2024. According to Bitwise, the surge was largely driven by the US launch of spot bitcoin ETFS, which set records with Us$33.6bil in inflows within their first year.

Other crypto assets, including Ethereum and Solana, also posted substantial year-to-date gains of 75.77% and 127.71%, respectively. This performance highlights how cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, ethereum and solana, have outpaced all major asset classes in 2024.

Crypto equities mirrored this bullish trend. Companies like Microstrategy and Coinbase saw their shares skyrocket by 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively. In comparison, traditional assets such as the S&P 500 and gold returned 28.07% and 27.65% over the same period, highlighting crypto’s dominance.

Catalysts for next milestone

The factors driving bitcoin’s trajectory towards US$200,000 are multifaceted, Bitwise highlights. The launch of bitcoin

ETFS in 2024 shattered expectations, and Bitwise believes 2025 will see even greater inflows.

“When US spot bitcoin ETFS launched in January 2024, ETF experts forecast the group to see Us$5bil to Us$15bil of inflows in their first year. They passed the higher end of that range within the first six months.

“Since launching, the record-setting ETFS have gathered Us$33.6bil in inflows. We expect 2025’s inflows to top that,” Bitwise says.

Drawing a parallel with gold ETFS launched in 2004, Bitwise notes that ETF inflows typically accelerate in subsequent years.

“The best historical analogy we have for the bitcoin ETF launch is the launch of gold ETFS in 2004. Flows petering out would be unusual,” it explains.

At present, major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America have yet to fully embrace bitcoin ETFS.

Bitwise anticipates this to change in 2025, unlocking a wave of institutional investments. “The trillions of dollars these firms manage will start flowing into bitcoin ETFS,” Bitwise predicts.

Risk tolerance

While bitcoin remains the focal point, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana are also poised for substantial gains in 2025. Bitwise’s price targets for Ethereum and Solana are US$7,000 and US$750, respectively.

Ethereum, despite its impressive 2024 performance, has faced competition from fastergrowing programmable blockchains.

However, Bitwise anticipates a “narrative shift” as activity on

Layer 2 blockchains and spot Ethereum ETFS gain traction.

Solana’s resurgence, driven by memecoin mania in 2024, is also expected to continue as serious projects migrate to its network, it says.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan points out that the role of crypto in portfolio construction is mostly a function of risk tolerance.

“Cryptocurrencies are inherently unpredictable: there is little visibility into future price movements and blockchain technology, while exciting, also has few barriers to entry, meaning tokens can become obsolete (and therefore worthless) as new ones enter the market with improved functionality,” the US asset management company cautions.

“As a result, for most investors, any allocation to crypto in a portfolio should be kept both small enough to ensure that even in the event of a significant sell-off it does not derail overall portfolio objectives and well diversified,” it adds.

While the outlook for bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, risks remain.

Regulatory clarity, though improving, is still a work in progress.

The global economic environment, including interest-rate policies and geopolitical tensions, could also impact investor sentiment.

However, the convergence of favourable regulatory developments, institutional adoption and technological advancements positions bitcoin as a strong contender to achieve new heights, potentially reshaping the global financial landscape.

By CECILIA kok cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

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Friday, December 13, 2024

Growth expected as ‘stars aligning’ for country

Why Malaysia is Becoming a Semiconductor Powerhouse

Malaysia has become a winner amidst the ongoing chip war between the U.S. and China, and here's why.

This video is based on publicly available data and analysis. It represents the author’s perspective and should not be taken as professional or financial advice.

Bursa Malaysia chairman Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is in a “sweet spot” for economic growth and investment, with the “stars aligning” in its favour, according to industry leaders and market analysts.

This optimism stems from the country’s robust macroeconomic fundamentals, improving investment climate and strategic positioning in the global supply chain.

Maybank Investment Bank head of regional equity research Anand Pathmakanthan highlighted Malaysia’s acceleration in gross fixed capital formation, driven by a blend of domestic direct investment (DDI) and foreign direct investment (FDI).

“The good news is it’s not just FDI, it’s also DDI, which is far more important in terms of job creation and tax generation,” he said during his presentation at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Economy Insight Conference 2024 yesterday.

Anand said for the last 10 years, local companies have not been investing, which has a lot to do with political instability.

“They’ve been investing less and less in Malaysia, which is always a bad sign for any country,” he said.

But in the last two years, he said Malaysia is seeing a recovery in DDI.

“The recovery in DDI reflects the confidence that domestic businesses are feeling better about the environment. That (DDI) is going to be a key support when issues about trade crop up next year with Trump 2.0,” he said.

Meanwhile, Anand said Budget 2025 is “very well-balanced,” emphasising initiatives to crowd-in private sector investments.

He projected continued economic growth, supported by a civil service pay hike, minimum wage increases and enhanced cash handouts, which would sustain domestic consumption in 2025.

“Malaysia is in a very sweet spot, especially when it comes to attracting supply chain relocation and FDI,” he said.

Anand projected Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to conclude at 5.2% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, outpacing the Asean-6 regional average of 4.8% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025.

Affin Bank Bhd president and chief executive officer Datuk Wan Razly Abdullah echoed the optimism, projecting GDP growth of 5.2% in 2025, up from the bank’s projection of 5% for this year.

He attributed this to stable oil prices, elevated crude palm oil (CPO) prices and active construction and technology sectors.

“The elevated price of oil and CPO will provide good income streams,” he said, adding that Johor and Klang Valley developments would boost the property sector.

“The stars are aligning for Malaysia thanks to our stable political environment and strong FDI flows.”

Wan Razly also expressed bullishness on the ringgit, predicting it to strengthen to RM4.10 against the US dollar by end-2025, supported by the US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Adding to the optimism for Malaysia’s economic prospects, Bursa Malaysia chairman Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar highlighted the robust performance of the local bourse, driven by a favourable investment environment and strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

“Malaysia has been a vibrant market for initial public offerings (IPOs) this year. Up to the end of November, we had 47 listings that raised a total of US$1.5bil. By year-end, we expect to close with 54 or 55 listings,” he said.

He noted that the average daily trading value for 2024 has increased by over 50% year-to-date, reaching approximately RM3.1bil.

Abdul Wahid believes this momentum will be sustained into 2025, with 19 IPO approvals in hand for next year.

“Looking at the pipeline, I think 2025 should be another good year,” he said.

He said “the overall good macroeconomics are being translated into the real world and capital markets,” coupled with a shorter processing time for IPO listings of just three months.

Separately, Abdul Wahid said Malaysia should further tap into the Asean market and leverage its strategic advantages, as the regional bloc is well-positioned amidst global uncertainties, particularly ahead of the United States’ tariff threats on China.

Abdul Wahid urged Malaysia to continue to pursue its relationship with Asean in a pragmatic and constructive manner to further capitalise on the bloc’s 670 million consumers.

“The biggest potential that we have is in Asean. Our trade and investments (in the bloc) is relatively low compared to other trade partners and that can be enhanced further,” he said.

Abdul Wahid also emphasised that Malaysia should not be mutually exclusive to any specific trade groupings, trade talks or bilateral agreements and should focus on further strengthening trade relationships.

In the realm of inflation, both Anand and Wan Razly anticipate a rise to 3% in 2025, up from the current 1.9%, mainly due to the targeted petrol subsidy scheduled to take effect mid next year.

Despite the projected uptick, both of them said Malaysia’s inflation rate will stay within a healthy range, underpinned by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and effective policy measures.

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Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Beef up cybersecurity now

Cyberattacks likely if action not taken, says bukit aman

KUALA LUMPUR: Companies and organisations must beef up cybersecurity to prevent breaches and cyberattacks, says Bukit Aman.

Bukit Aman Commercial Crime Investigation Department (CCID) director Comm Datuk Seri Ramli Mohamed Yoosuf (pic) said cyber attacks are quite prevalent worldwide with millions of attacks per year and tens of thousands daily.

“Thus, it is imperative for companies and organisations to beef up their cybersecurity systems such as firewalls to prevent breaches.

“If it is not done, sooner or later, an organisation or entity might face a cyberattack,” he told The Star recently.

Comm Ramli said the CCID is working closely with other agencies such as Cyber Security Malaysia and the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission to take action on data breaches.

He said the CCID managed to bust a syndicate that attempted to sell stolen data in September.

“We detained five men, including a Pakistani, in an operation codenamed Ops Kapas, with other agencies, including Cyber Security Malaysia.

“The syndicate stole 400 million pieces of data of Malaysians, including names, MyKad, addresses, bank accounts and phone numbers.

ALSO READ: Smaller firms lack budget for cybersecurity

“They had hacked systems used by companies and agencies to obtain the data.

“Those who want access to the data are charged between RM200 and RM800 per month,” he said.

(Click To Enlarge)

Investigations showed the syndicate was operating for about a year.

“Two of those detained – a Malaysian and a Pakistani – were a web portal designer and a hacker.

“Three other individuals were agents and unlicensed debt collectors, who bought the stolen data,” he said.

Investigations showed the Pakistani man as the syndicate’s mastermind due to his hacking skills.

“We believe he entered Malaysia as a general worker 10 years ago,” he said.

Comm Ramli said syndicates are using the “shadow world” of the Internet to look for potential customers of the stolen data.

ALSO READ: Shields up around Malaysia’s cyberspace

“The syndicate would sell the stolen data on the dark web to other syndicates such as scammers as well as unlicensed debt collectors,” he said.

Meanwhile, checks by The Star on the dark web showed that transactions are made using cryptocurrency, particularly bitcoin, which makes following the money trail difficult.

Among the finds on the dark web was the alleged sale of staff members’ and customers’ data of a low-cost airline.

Another search result showed that hackers have sourced the login ID of users of different banks from different countries and were promoting their service which includes transferring any amount of money for a fee.

“We have gathered bank logins of different banks and countries as a result of automated Malware/Trojan we spread online once the individual logs into his/her online banking account, it grabs the person’s banking details, it is very powerful and can get access to accounts, bank database and bank server,” the promotional literature of the service read.

(Click To Enlarge)

“With these services, you just place an order to get any amount you need and we will look up the bank login we have available and make transfers to any account you provide.

Our services are efficient, reliable and safe,” it said, adding that bank transfers are available to countries such as Malaysia, the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, China and Switzerland.

These hackers are charging US$450 (RM1,990) for bank transfers amounting to US$2,000-US$4,000 (RM8,848-RM17,696); US$750 (RM3,318) for bank transfers amounting to US$5,000-US$7,000 (RM22,122-RM30,969) and US$1,050 (RM4,645) for bank transfers amounting to US$8,000-US$10,000 (RM35,393 - RM44,241).

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Unlocking bond yields for retirement

A solution must be found to help retirees get hold of smaller portions of decent-yielding corporate bonds Retirees can also close the gap on their replacement rate through investment funds that pay out dividends monthly

ONE of the best ways for retirees to secure a good income replacement rate is by generating decent yields from their investments.

The replacement rate refers to the percentage of a person’s pre-retirement income that is replaced by retirement income.

A reliable source of this yield can come from corporate bonds.

However, for those looking to tap into such investment products, getting your hands on decent-yielding corporate bonds is not easy.

The reason for this is simple: access to these bonds often seems to be reserved only for the banks’ rich clientele through their private wealth management services.

For instance, bonds issued by local banks or blue-chip corporations that yield around 6% to 7% annually typically require a minimum investment of about RM250,000.

But why are these bonds not sliced and diced for the man on the street?

Some argue that banks, which manage the issuance and sale of these bonds (just like they handle initial public offerings), take all for themselves and their wealthy clients.

Banks, in turn, claim that there just isn’t enough corporate bonds coming into the market.

Incidentally, government debt papers, which are highly secure, typically do not provide sufficiently high yields to make a meaningful difference for retirees.

A solution must be found to help retirees get hold of smaller portions of decent-yielding corporate bonds.

Additionally, another way to boost yields for retirees and close the gap on their replacement rate is through investment funds that pay out dividends monthly.

This is a healthy, growing trend among issuers, and more unit trust and asset management companies should follow suit.

Finally, while the unit trust market has made strides in lowering fees – a thorny, ongoing issue – some players still charge too much.

Regulation should be introduced to ensure that the man on the street does not get unfairly charged for products that he or she relies on to provide income during retirement

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