Azmin showing the RCEP agreement document during the signing ceremony witnessed by Muhyiddin on Nov 15. – fotoBERNAMA\
ON behalf of the Government of Malaysia, I signed the historic Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement together with 14 other RCEP participating countries (RPCs).
Being an integral part of the week-long 37th Asean Summit, led by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, the signing of the RCEP agreement represents the high point of the summit which was convened virtually in its entirety.
Witnessing this momentous occasion, the prime minister said that the signing signifies to the world that Asean, with its five Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners, places utmost priority on regional economic integration that facilitates cross-border trade, investments and the easing of non-tariff measures.
The signing is the culmination of eight years of arduous and protracted negotiations involving 31 rounds of negotiations, eight ministerial meetings and four summits.
Undoubtedly, it represents a significant and imperative milestone in the integration and revitalisation of economies of the 15 parties.
Further, this will also be a testament to the strengthening of the multilateral trading system as well as upholding the development agenda in the WTO.
Being the largest FTA in the world, covering 15 countries with 2.2 billion people or nearly a third (29.7%) of the world’s population, RCEP represents US$24.8bil or almost a third (28.9%) of the world’s GDP based on World Bank’s 2018 data.
With different economic development levels of all parties, RCEP will contribute to sustaining Malaysia as a preferred trading hub and investment destination.
To Malaysian businesses, it will mean tariff elimination and reduction for merchandise goods, including the facilitation of export and import of goods among the RCEP countries.
Service providers including e-commerce will be able to enjoy greater market access in terms of cross-border supply and establishing commercial presence in the RCEP markets.
In addition, RCEP will promote, facilitate and protect the investment climate of participating countries within the region. This also includes information exchange and promotion of transparency measures to facilitate business and investment within the RCEP area.
Realising that SMEs play a pivotal role to the backbone of every economies, RCEP could provide a level playing field between developed and least developed countries.
There is a specific chapter on SMEs providing provisions for information exchange and promotion of transparency measures to facilitate business and investment within the region, including providing economic and technical cooperation especially to SMEs.
RCEP can be an economic recovery tool against Covid-19 which will help to ensure opening of markets as well as uninterrupted supply chain.
The RCEP amalgamates and streamlines the existing Asean Plus One FTAs involving Japan, South Korea, China, Australia and New Zealand into an inclusive and comprehensive agreement that will enhance inter and intra-regional trade and investment, strengthen regional value chains, as well as facilitate transparency, information sharing and harmonisation of technical regulations and standards.
RCEP reflects our strong commitment for international trade, connectivity, rules-based multilateral trading system and enhancing free flow of trade and investment.
Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali Senior Minister Minister of International Trade and Industry
More than two dozen psychiatrists Think Trump is dangerous and unfit for office
The Chinese are making physical and psychological preparations for a US-initiated war
US President Donald Trump arrives to speak in the Brady Briefing Room at
the White House, in Washington DC on Thursday. Democrat Joe Biden is
leading Trump in the race for the 270 electoral votes as of press time.
Photo: AFP
China has been prepared for a "final act of the madness" from the Trump administration and its staged hysteria on China-related issues, as it is highly likely that the incumbent US president will take much more extreme measures on issues such as the South China Sea, the island of Taiwan and China's high tech sector, the moves which are also seen as "setting obstacles" for Biden in his foreign policies, experts said.
After imposing new restrictions on US investment in 31 Chinese companies and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's remarks of denying Taiwan island is part of China, US President Trump will enact a series of hardline policies during his final 10 weeks, including a crackdown on China over so-called "forced labor" in Xinjiang, as well as sanctions on officials and companies with connections to Hong Kong, according to US news site axios.com.
The move also aims to cement Trump's legacy on China, the media report said, citing senior US officials. His political legacies on China will be widely known for its toughness including the launching of a yearlong trade war, leading the global suppression against Chinese high tech companies, smear and blame campaign over the coronavirus epidemic, and consulate closure. During his four-year tenure, the China and US relationship has hit its lowest point in decades, while his all-out anti-China stance has been supported by GOP and his voters.
"Being tough on China is seen as Trump's diplomatic achievement, which has been widely applauded in the US. Any turnaround at the point would be seen as a 'slap in the face' and it's now his final chance to play this card to the maximum extent," Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for US Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Monday.
While Trump refused to concede the US election, tweeting that Biden "won" but that the election was rigged, thousands of his supporters protested in downtown Washington DC over the weekend, according to media reports. They also chanted Trump's campaign slogan such as "Make America Great Again" as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country crossed the 11-million mark, "reaching yet another grim milestone," some reports said.
Some Chinese experts believed that Trump does not want to disappoint his supporters, and continuing to be tough on China-related matter is one of his strategies, which has also been echoed by some of his "anti-China" group including Pompeo, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Attorney General William Barr and National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien.
China urged the US to manage the differences on the basis of mutual respect and explore cooperation in reciprocity but will firmly defend its own interests of sovereignty, security and development, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said on reports about Trump will come up with final measures targeting Chinese firms and human rights issues.
A healthy and stable China-US relationship is in line with the fundamental interests of people from the two countries, which also echoes common expectation of the international community, Zhao said.
The Trump administration is also expected to stage its final hysteria toward China by coming up with measures to stir up conflicts in the South China Sea, the Taiwan island, and may launch a crackdown on more Chinese scientific and research staff, Xin predicted. "It's also likely that the US will shut down all the Confucius Institutes in America, casting shadow over future people-to-people exchanges between China and the US," he said.
A trap for Biden?
Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times on Monday that "Although Trump is becoming a lame duck president in his last days in the White House, he can still create more legacies by signing executive orders, although the executive organs under different departments are unlikely to cooperate."
"Trump is actually setting a trap or planting a landmine for the Biden administration," Shen Yi, a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University, told the Global Times.
According to the White House website, "the Executive Order on Addressing the Threat from Securities Investments that Finance Communist Chinese Military Companies" that the Trump administration issued on Thursday will take effect on January 11.
"The date tells everything. By that time, the election will be concluded with a final result, so Trump is throwing a problem into the hands of Biden - if Biden cancels the order, Trump can assert Biden is a Panda Hugger [a Western politician who is being supportive to China]; if Biden keeps the executive order, Trump believes that China would be disappointed and hit back, so the China-US ties will remain tense or even get worse," Shen said on Monday.
Before the election, Trump made great efforts to stigmatize China as he thought the COVID-19 epidemic situation was the biggest obstacle to his reelection, and after the election, he has become more angry as he believes it was the coronavirus that made him lose the reelection, so he has directed his anger toward China again, Diao said.
Shen said that before the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump made many friendly remarks about China and the Chinese national leader, "but he is such an emotional and unpredictable person that we can't use a normal person's mentality to judge him. The current hostility toward China and the friendly remarks of the past are all the reflections of his unusual personality."
Joe Biden in Beijing on December 5, 2013 Photo: AFP
A long fight
Between retaliation against US provocations and de-escalation of tensions with the US, Chinese analysts said China needs to be careful and cautious, and there will be no surprises as long as China is fully prepared for a long fight with the US whether it is governed by Trump or Biden.
On one hand, China needs to precisely retaliate against the Trump administration and make it feel the pain if the provocations harm Chinese core interests; on the other hand, if the provocations are just bluffing with no concrete damage, China can ignore them and focus on communicating with Biden's team to minimize the damages, Diao noted.
"The current situation is even more complicated than the time before and during the election," because sometimes it will be hard to tell which force is behind the new provocations and offensives between November and January, Diao said, "so China's retaliation against the US should precisely hit the Trump administration, and minimize the difficulty for fixing the bilateral ties with the next administration."
The US military is unlikely to support the "final madness" of the Trump administration as they know the risks of a war with China, but in the fields of trade and investment, Trump is likely to leave some legacies, and the Biden administration would also likely inherit these legacies and use them as leverage to bargain with China, Diao further noted.
Shen said that "we can't expect Biden to cancel all policies made by the Trump administration. That would be na?ve. China is fully prepared for more conflicts with the new administration. The Biden administration will only fix Trump's policies if it finds them damaging US interests. Being prepared for a long fight is always the wise choice for China."
The US is a real tiger on the global stage, but when it
comes close to China's coastal waters and touches China's core
interests, it becomes a paper tiger. With just over two months left for
the Trump administration, any attempt to flex its muscle or flaunt will
receive embarrassment and humiliation. China is not a badge of honor for
the US political elite to daub.
The Chinese people don't want to be involved in trouble
after the US election. But we must make the Trump administration know
that we had not hesitated to fight back their provocations during the
peak of their rule, nor will we be reluctant to strike back when
necessary in the coming days. Now may be their craziest time, but we
know it's also their most vulnerable time. They lack mobilization
abilities to promote extreme confrontation with China.
Here are six tips to help avoid the pain that can come from a makeshift home office during this work-from-home ( WFH) period.
MANY of us are currently working from home during the conditional movement control order.
While it is an excellent precaution to avoid catching the SARSCoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 (not to mention other viruses and bacteria), you might find that your makeshift home “office” is causing you pain in your neck, shoulders and back.
Working for extended periods of time at your dining or coffee table is not great for your body and overall health.
Without those adjustable office chairs, you have to be extra conscious of your posture and routine if you want to combat the stress and strain that come from sitting in a compromised position all day long.
Fortunately, there are cheap and creative ways to make your work-from-home set-up more ergonomic.
Stay comfortable and avoid back pain while you work remotely for the foreseeable future with these tips.
Elevate your workstation
At work, your desktop or laptop is at a work station with an adjustable chair.
But at home, working for 40plus hours a week at your dining table can lead to back, shoulder and neck strain.
Laptops are never good ergonomically as the monitor is usually too low.
Ideally, the top of your monitor should be just below you eye level, so that you don’t have to strain your neck while reading.
If you’re working on a reading-intensive task, prop your laptop up on objects (like a stack of books or shoeboxes) so that it’s at your eye level.
You can also invest in an external monitor or a laptop stand.
When you need to type, do lower your laptop to a level that allows your arms to be comfortably bent at 90° angles while doing so.
Work at the appropriate height
The height of your workstation at home should be one that naturally allows your elbows to be at the same level as the table, desk or counter.
This will promote better wrist alignment and help avoid stiffness and stress on the carpal tunnel.
If compulsory working from home stretches on (as appears to be happening), you might want to invest in an appropriate office chair for your home workstation.
You should look for chairs that have adjustable height and back rests, as well as arm rests and good lumbar support.
A wheeled chair will allow you to easily adjust your distance from the computer and move it around
if necessary. The features of a good office chair will save you from much lumbar and neck discomfort, and is worth the investment.
Elevate your feet
Supporting your feet on an elevated surface or stretching your legs creates better blood circulation as you work throughout the day.
Ideally, your hips and knees should form 90° angles when you sit in your chair.
Place your feet on a few books or shoeboxes under your desk, so that your thighs are parallel to the floor and your hips slightly higher than your knees.
This will reduce stress on your lumbar spine.
When you start feeling stiff, move your feet back and forth.
Use the 20/20/20 rule
This rule states that for every 20 minutes spent looking at your computer screen, take 20 seconds to look at something else that is at least 20 feet (6m) away.
This will give your eye muscles a break and reduce eye strain.
Vary your position
It’s crucial to vary your posture throughout the day as sitting in the same position all day long is the quickest way to getting back, neck and shoulder pain.
For some variety, move to different places around the house throughout the day.
Make one spot your main workstation, but also move to a place where you can stand to work, change tables or rooms, or sit on your couch for short periods.
But do not turn your couch into your main workstation!
As tempting as it sounds, the couch is not an optimal place to work at your computer for the entire day.
While it may be comfortable, having your legs or whole body in a horizontal or diagonal position can lead to muscle numbness and discomfort.
Instead, you can make your main workstation more comfortable in several ways.
Placing a thin pillow or cushion on your seat can make a regular chair much more comfortable.
Draping a soft fleece blanket over the back of your chair is also a small thing that can make your chair feel plush.
To reduce lower back pain, add a rolled towel between your chair and lower back for lumbar support.
Take regular breaks
Because we don’t have an official lunch hour while working from home, it’s easy to snack on small things while working throughout the day instead of eating a proper lunch.
Cooking a meal and staying hydrated gives you the opportunity to stand up and allow your eyes to rest from the glare of the computer screen.
Set boundaries so as not to be tempted to work through the night by sticking to your regular work hours or usual number of hours at work.
Most people take breaks to walk around when they’re in the office, but when you’re at home, there may be a tendency to forget to do this and keep going without enough breaks.
Stay active
Set a timer to go off every hour to remind yourself to take a break for three to five minutes.
Walk around, do some basic stretches or take the chance to finish some quick chores like washing the dishes from lunch or folding the laundry.
Datuk Dr Nor Ashikin Mokhtar
Datuk Dr Nor Ashikin Mokhtar is a consultant obstetrician and gynaecologist, and a functional medicine practitioner. For further information, email starhealth@ thestar.com. my. The information provided is for educational and communication purposes only and it should not be construed as personal medical advice. Information published in this article is not intended to replace, supplant or augment a consultation with a health professional regarding the reader’s own medical care. The Star does not give any warranty on accuracy, completeness, functionality, usefulness or other assurances as to the content appearing in this column. The Star disclaims all responsibility for any losses, damage to property or personal injury suffered directly or indirectly from reliance on such information.
China and 14 other economies signed the world's largest trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), on Sunday to form a free trade zone in the Asia-Pacific region that will encompass a third of the global economy, in what Chinese officials and experts call a historic win for multilateralism that would help the regional and global economies cope with the COVID-19 pandemic and rising protectionism.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that signing of the RCEP is not only an achievement of landmark significance in East Asian regional cooperation, but is also a victory of multilateralism and free trade.
"Signed after eight years of negotiation, the RCEP lets people see brightness and hope in shadows, proving that multilateralism and free trade remain the main and correct course as well as the right direction for the global economy and mankind," Li said.
Signed at a critical turning point in the global political climate – when the next US administration is set to come into office and the world is grasping for solutions to tackle challenges arising from the coronavirus pandemic, the new regional deal would also help the Asia Pacific region take the global lead in recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and reduce US hegemony in the region, experts said.
The deal, which encompasses Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nationals, will create what is believed to be the world's largest free trade zone, covering about one-third of the world's total population and GDP. It will be also Japan's first free trade framework with its vital trading partners China and South Korea.
Notably, two major economies – the US and India – were left out of the trade pact. The US, under President Donald Trump, has been pushing for bilateral deals rather than multilateral ones. India was part of the negotiations, but did not join the final agreement.
The RCEP, which contains 20 chapters covering a wide range of areas from merchandise trade to investment to e-commerce, is “modern, comprehensive and high-level win-win agreement,” China’s Finance Ministry said on Sunday, adding that under the deal, members will aim to reduce tariffs to zero in the coming decade.
Bao Jianyun, professor of the School of International Studies and director of the Center for International Political Economy Studies at Renmin University of China, said that signing of the RCEP showed China, which played a very active role in pushing for the deal, has led the way in liberalizing trade and promoting a global market order of free competition.
"At the same time, China provides the world with a Chinese model and a Chinese solution on the open platform, where it serves the world," Bao told the Global Times, explaining that China as an emerging power has been a major promoter of trade and investment integration of RCEP.
Chen Fengying, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, also stressed that the successful and long-awaited signing of the megapact has rekindled the world's 'hope and confidence" about a model of cooperation.
"Global cooperation has been defeated in recent years because of rising protectionism and China-US trade friction. But the RCEP's signing is a signal that cooperation does work today, which I think is even more important withthe lift it gives to specific countries' GDP growth," Chen told the Global Times.
Liu Kuikui, a Beijing-based consultant of international transport and trade, told the Global Times that the RCEP will establish a common framework of rules of origin for Asia-Pacific countries, reduce investment barriers, and expand trade and investment. The participation of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, allies of the US, demonstrates that the four countries are opposed to the trade protectionism and the economic bullying launched by the US.
Signing of RCEP a victory of multilateralism and free trade: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang
RCEP will end US hegemony in West Pacific
Not joining RCEP a strategic blunder that will lead to India’s isolation in globalization
The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest free trade agreement (FTA), will
give strong momentum to the development of the world's
COVID-19-battered economy and cement regional cooperation within East
Asia, which has emerged strongest from the pandemic, observers
predicted, noting that China, with its economic and market size, will
play a driving role in this partnership, yet every member will benefit
equally under such framework.
A report celebrating the milestones and achievements of
the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) highlighted the growth of
bilateral trade and investment over the past decade, as well as joint
efforts to battle the coronavirus and the safeguarding of regional
industrial and supply chains
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday called for
solidarity, the focus on development and expanded cooperation to join
hands in countering the challenges amid the ravaging COVID-19.
HANOI,
Nov 15 (Reuters): Fifteen Asia-Pacific economies formed the world’s
largest free trade bloc on Sunday, a China-backed deal that excludes the
United States, which had left a rival Asia-Pacific grouping under
President Donald
Strong leaders club: Lee Kuan Yew was an admirer of Reagan and Nixon.— AP Photo/File
The zeitgeist of the world is infused by the character of the US leader. Biden will bring back the civility and generosity that the American spirit is associated with.
THE first American president to enter my personal consciousness was John F. Kennedy. It wasn’t his stirring rhetoric that reached me as a child in Singapore. It was the news of his assassination. The sense of loss was globally palpable. History has been kind to him.
He was succeeded by Lyndon Baines Johnson. As a child, I was puzzled. How could someone so ugly succeed someone who was so attractive? Indeed, he was boorish. Legend has it that he would summon his staff to meetings while sitting on his toilet seat, doing his business.
Still, history will be kind to him. His bold and massive civil rights legislation changed the course of US history. Which may explain why he has the most voluminous and still unfinished biography of any recent American president, in the four volumes by Robert Caro.
History has been unkind to Richard Nixon, his successor. Watergate killed him. The liberal media has not forgiven him. Yet there’s no doubt that he changed the course of human history. Without Nixon, Henry Kissinger could not have gone to China.
Lee Kuan Yew named Nixon as the greatest American president he had met, saying: “But for the misfortune of Watergate, I would say Richard Nixon. He had a realistic view of the world. He was a great analyst, realistic, but also a tactician to get things done.”
When Nixon stepped down, Lee lost a true friend in the White House, a major asset for the leader of a small country.
This partially explained the contempt Lee had for Jimmy Carter, whom he considered naive. In Tom Plate’s book, Giants Of Asia: Conversations With Lee Kuan Yew, Lee named Carter the worst president, saying of him: “Your job as a leader is to inspire and to galvanise, not to share your distraught thoughts. You make your people dispirited.”
Fortunately, Carter was succeeded by the two-term Ronald Reagan, another admirer of Lee. I was present when they met in the White House. Still, as a Singapore diplomat in Washington and New York during Reagan’s era, I experienced the condescension the liberal media displayed towards him. However, history has been very kind to Reagan, especially because of his spectacular victory over the Soviet Union.
Reagan was succeeded by another great friend and admirer of Lee, George H. W. Bush. I was present in a small room in St Petersburg, Russia, in the late 1990s, when Bush confirmed that the No 1 leader he admired in the world was Lee.
I reported this to him. Sadly, Bush became a one-term president, and his departure was another huge blow to Lee.
The point of these stories is a simple one. The selection of an American president has huge consequences for the world, including Singapore.
What Biden offers
Indeed, given the overwhelming power of America, especially in the media and communication dimensions, the zeitgeist of the world is infused by the character and personality of the American president.
Donald Trump’s narcissistic and self-absorbed personality has deprived the world of a major source of inspiration, especially after Barack Obama.
So what does the election of Joe Biden bring to the world? Will good times return? The short answer is yes and no.
Biden is a truly decent human being. He will bring back the civility and generosity that the American spirit is associated with.
However, Biden also knows that he is taking over a deeply divided country, as demonstrated by the huge numbers who voted for Trump even though he was defeated. His priority is to heal his country, not create a better world.
Nonetheless, Biden has at least three opportunities he can capitalise on to retain his positive glow.
First, he can bring back some boredom to the White House. Both America and the world have become exhausted by Trump’s tweets and in-your-face presence. Some calm and reticence by the Biden administration will help to return the world to a certain degree of normalcy.
Biden knows that he cannot do this alone. Fortunately, he has assembled a formidable transitional team of real American heavyweights. They share Biden’s distress over the divisions in the country. Repairing the wounds in American society and bringing back a happy America will be the main priority.
The second opportunity is geopolitical. Biden cannot reverse the US-China geopolitical contest, for reasons I have documented in my book, Has China Won? He would be persecuted if he is seen to be soft on China. Yet, even if he cannot reverse course on China, he can press the pause button on the contest.
Americans believe in common sense. Simple common sense would say that Americans should first deal with the pressing challenges of Covid-19 and economic slowdown, not to mention global warming.
All these problems would be better handled with some degree of cooperation with China. Just as Winston Churchill partnered an adversary, Joseph Stalin, to defeat Adolf Hitler, Biden can partner a competitor, China, to defeat Covid19. Both Nixon and Lee would have approved such a Machiavellian manoeuvre against a common foe.
The third opportunity lies in stopping America’s drift towards a plutocracy. One key reason why Trump was elected in 2016 was because of the “sea of despair” among the white working classes. This is because America is the only major developed economy where the average income of the bottom 50% has gone down. The anguish of these white working classes must be dealt with. Some redistribution must take place.
Reagan delegitimised taxes. Biden must re-legitimise them. And, if America’s many plutocrats are wise, they would support him.
In short, Biden can apply some gentle soothing balm on the many wounds generated by the Trump presidency. His greatest asset is his decency. Plain decency will bring a lot of healing to America. Trump may have been cruel to call him “Sleepy Joe”. Yet a “Sleepy Joe” and calm American presidency may be good for America and the world.
By KISHORE MAHBUBANI
Kishore Mahbubani is a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research
Institute, National University of Singapore, and the author of ‘Has The
West Lost It?’ and ‘Has China Won?’-ANN
The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday extended the country's congratulations to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and said China respects the choice of the Americans.
Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that we have been watching the domestic and international reaction to the US presidential election, and we respect the choices of the Americans.
"We extend congratulations to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, and we also understand that the US election result will be decided in accordance with US laws and procedures," Wang said at Friday's media briefing.
Wang's remarks came after several world leaders and representatives of international organizations have congratulated Biden, who was declared the winner of the recent election.
The improvement in China-Japan ties does not come easily,
and needs to be cherished more. It is hoped that the two countries can
meet each other halfway and properly handle their divergences so as to
open up new vistas of their bilateral relationship.
Yet there is little possibility that the Biden
administration will accidentally ignite a conflict in the South China
Sea. However, the chances that Trump will do so in the final days of
presidency are rising sharply as he needs to leave a wealthy legacy for
the military industries before he officially leaves office. But for
Biden, dealing with the messy relations with other countries will be his
priority after dealing with the COVID-19 virus and troubled US economy.
Chinese people's living situation justifies the CPC's
leadership, and Pompeo's malicious rhetoric fools no one. Haunted by the
“Marxist-Leninismonster” in his brain, Pompeo and his like are dragging
the American people into a capitalist black hole. It's very likely that
Pompeo will eventually retreat from his position in months. By then,
Pompeo's claims against China will sound like his political will. Yet
China's booming development will attest that Pompeo is the “worst
Secretary of State in history.”
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, at the last moment of
his term, has once again provoked China by saying that "Taiwan has not
been a part of China," which is against the US' official stance and the
foundation for China and the US in establishing their formal diplomatic
ties, but Chinese experts said such a trick is unlikely to affect the
policymaking of the new administration.
The West's slander of China's vaccine also mirrors their
fear about China's rapid rise in science and technology. They do not believe China is able to develop effective vaccine as they have been viewing China with pride and prejudice
America is in the middle of its third nationwide surge in Covid-19 cases — what some are calling a “third wave” — with reported cases hitting a record high of more than 100,000 in one day.
With that, the much-feared fall and winter surge of coronavirus cases that experts warned of for months is here. Despite the US already suffering at least 235,000 Covid-19 deaths — the highest death toll in the world — it looks like things are getting worse.
As of November 8, the seven-day average of daily new coronavirus cases was more than 111,000, a record high. That’s up from a recent low in the seven-day average of fewer than 35,000 cases on September 12. The increase doesn’t appear to be driven by a single state or region — although the Dakotas, Iowa, and Wisconsin appear to be in particularly bad shape — but rather spikes across much of the country at once, with more cases reported in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West.
The spike is partly due to more testing exposing more cases. But that can’t be the full explanation, because hospitalizations and the overall rate of positive tests are trending up. Over the most recent week of data, the seven-day average for daily tests increased by only 9 percent while daily new coronavirus cases increased by 34 percent.
Unlike the summer’s surge of coronavirus, the US isn’t alone in its latest wave — cases have risen in much of Europe, too. Still, that doesn’t mean this was inevitable: With aggressive measures, developed nations like Canada, Germany, and especially Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea have kept their Covid-19 caseloads much lower than America’s or Europe’s as a whole. And many European countries, unlike the US, have started to tame their outbreaks with new measures, from lockdowns to mask mandates.
Experts have long warned that a surge was coming in the US in the colder seasons. Even though the country never fully suppressed its summer surge in Covid-19 cases, most states have moved to reopen more businesses, including risky indoor spaces like restaurants and bars, as well as schools, with colleges and universities proving particularly problematic so far.
President Donald Trump, for his part, has encouraged the rapid reopenings — even after his own illness. As he left the hospital, Trump tweeted, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life.” He’s kept pushing a false sense of normalcy in the weeks since, even going as far as mocking masks and claiming, falsely, that they’re ineffective. (In reality, the evidence for masks keeps getting stronger.)
LAST Friday, the Finance Minister tabled what is now known as Malaysia’s largest-ever budget.
The excellently-crafted and well-written budget was presented in a couple of hours and after it was presented, the social media, mainstream media, economists, consulting firms and investment banking strategists gave their views on the measures, especially those related to taxes, incentives or grants.
Now that Budget 2021 has been tabled, lawmakers will debate on the merits and vote on it. Having covered budgets for more than two decades, the devil is in the details and this year is not an exception.
Let’s look at the gross domestic product (GDP) estimate first. The government expects GDP growth for 2020 to contract by 4.5% and for next year, it is estimated to grow by between 6.5% and 7.5% in real terms. For the economy to close the year with the projected contraction, the second half of 2020 has a very small room to contract by only 0.7% as the economy shrank 8.3% in the first half.
This is a tall order as economic data remains largely weak as seen in several indicators, which include the industrial production index as well as the poor reading in the retail sub-segment.
With almost the entire nation under the conditional movement control order, economic growth, if any, will be challenging.
Meanwhile, in nominal terms, the government expects GDP growth to be -4.7% this year and to rise significantly by almost 9% in 2021, as inflation is expected to return with a reading of 2.5%, mainly due to the low base effect from 2020.
Perhaps when the Bank Negara releases the third quarter GDP data on Friday, we can then assess if the full year GDP assumption still holds water or otherwise.
For 2021, the government expects GDP growth to be driven by domestic demand, in particular growth from private consumption while the external sector may post some drag as imports are forecast to grow even faster than exports.
On the supply side, the government expects the services and manufacturing sectors, which account for 80% of the economy, to grow by 7% each while construction is expected to bounce back with a near 14% leap in 2021 after the forecast drop of 18.7% this year. From here, we can observe that one of the key drivers of the economy next year is public investment, as the government has bumped up development expenditure to the tune of RM69bil for 2021 from the adjusted figure of RM50bil this year (which was previously forecast to be at RM56bil).
The government’s total expenditure is now broken into three main buckets – other than operating expenditure and development expenditure, we now have a new line item called the Covid-19 Fund with an allocation of RM38bil this year and RM17bil next year.
In essence, since the pandemic outbreak, the government has introduced various economic stimulus packages under its Prihatin package series and the Penjana package, which in total amounted to RM305bil, while the actual direct fiscal injection totaled RM55bil.
However, under the Temporary Measures for Government Financing (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Act, the Parliament had only approved a ceiling of RM45bil for the fund and hence the Minister has proposed, taking into consideration the nation’s need up to 2022, an amendment that will be tabled to raise the fund to RM65bil, an increase of RM20bil.
This increase that was mentioned in the budget speech is meant for the RM10bil Kita Prihatin package, additional assistance for people’s well-being, as well as to secure the supply of the much-needed vaccine. The table above summarises the government’s revenue projection for this year and the next.
The expected revenue for the second half of the year and into 2021 will be challenging for the government, given the level it had achieved in the first half. As it is, the second half forecast is 23.3% higher than the first half.
In addition, for 2021, revenue and expenditure are expected to increase by 4.2% and 4.3% respectively, which will likely be tough given the tax breaks that the government is proposing, in particular, company income tax (CITA) and personal direct taxes.
Based on government’s estimate, taxes from the two sources are expected to fall by 6.8% and 7.2% this year but will bounce back strongly in 2021 with a growth of 8.8% and 18.2% respectively.Interestingly, the 2021 forecast for CITA and personal direct taxes at RM64.6bil and RM42.4bil is higher than 2019’s figure by 1.3% and 9.7% respectively.
As for expenditure, as total federal government debt stood at RM874.3bil mark or 60.7% of GDP as at end of September 2020, the government’s Debt Service Charges (DSC) too have deteriorated.
From an estimated level of 15.4% of GDP this year, DSC is expected to drop further to 16.5% in 2021, mainly driven by 11.6% increase in absolute DSC to RM39bil.
Although both the DSC ratio in 2020 and 2021 will be higher than the self-imposed fiscal limit ratio of 15%, it is hoped that by beyond 2021, this ratio will be brought under control when the economy is expected to expand further.
All in, Budget 2021 measures are holistic and inclusive for all levels of society and have been cleverly crafted to address the challenges faced by Malaysians, especially those severely impacted by Covid-19.The government has largely listened to the voices of hope in addressing the pandemic world.
Having said that, the expected government’s revenue and GDP projections are rather optimistic, resulting in a much lower budget deficit figure while the forecast government tax revenues too are on the high side. While the DSC has now surpassed the self-imposed ceiling, the government’s debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain elevated for at least this year and in 2021.It is important for the lawmakers to approve this budget as the government has taken steps in keeping the economy going.
While there are some shortcomings in the terms of budget allocations, it is hoped that this can be ironed out during the parliamentary debate stage and all lawmakers come to an consensus to approve the gigantic budget.
Pankaj C. Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. Views expressed here are his own.
Pact can lead to greater market access 
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The FM really got SHOCKED when LGE asked him whether the budget was approved by the cabinet. Watch the video.
