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Thursday, July 17, 2014

Malaysian banks raise Base Lending Rate (BLR) or Base Financing Rate (BFR) to 6.85% pa

In tandem: Public Bank, Hong Leong Bank and Maybank are among banks which have confirmed that they have either adjusted or will be adjusting to the new rates.

A number of banks raise their base lending rates (BLR) and base financing rates (BFR) in tandem with Bank Negara’s announcement to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 3% to 3.25% effective yesterday, today and tomorrow.

As a result, the BLR and BFR has adjusted to 6.85% from 6.6% per annum previously.

The banks that have confirmed that the new rates effective from 16 July 2014 include Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLBB), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Public Bank Bhd, Alliance Financial Group Bhd and OCBC Malaysia, HSBC Bank Malaysia; effective 17 July 2014 include Citibank, Standard Chartered Bank;  effective 18 July 2014: UOB

It is understood that some banks may announce the interest rate revision on a different date, as they are still considering the quantum of the deposit rates, which will impact their earnings eventually.

Bank Simpanan Nasional senior vice-president and head of distribution Akhsan Zaini told StarBiz: “ We are still studying the impact of the rate hike on our bank before we announce the adjustment next week, tentatively.”

He also said the bank had yet to decide on how much it would adjust for its deposit rates

CIMB Research expects the rate hike to enhance banks’ earnings by 1% to 2%, as their net interest margins (NIM) widen.

Maybank Investment Bank Research, on the other hand, anticipates NIM growth to be short-lived due to price competition.

The research unit had said in an earlier report: “Our forecasts already assume a 50-bps rate hike in 2014, and as a result, we are looking at a marginal four-bps aggregate NIM improvement in 2015 versus a seven-bps contraction in 2014.”

Some banks have also announced the revision of their deposit rates, but the quantum varies from one lender to another as well as the deposit tenure.

Among others, Maybank’s deposit rates will be revised upwards by up to 15 bps.

HLBB and Hong Leong Islamic Bank Bhd (HLISB) will increase their fixed-deposit and Term Deposit-I rates by up to 25 bps.

Following the revision, HLBB and HLISB’s new deposit rates for one, six and 12 months would be 3.05%, 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively.

Hong Leong Banking Group’s managing director Tan Kong Khoon said the group would continue to work closely with its customers to address their financing and savings needs. Meanwhile, OCBC Bank (M) Bhd and OCBC Al-Amin Bank Bhd will be increasing their fixed-deposit and General Investment Account-i rates respectively by up to 20 bps, depending on tenures effective July 21.

In a statement, Maybank said: “The last revision in Maybank’s BLR and Maybank Islamic’s BFR was on May 11, 2011 when they were revised from 6.3% to 6.6% per annum.”

OCBC Bank’s mortgage lending rate, the alternative to using BLR for home loans, will also increase, to 5.7% compared with 5.45% previously.

JP Morgan Research noted that it was cautious on banks, as the combination of rate hikes and subsidy rationalisation would test the credit risk management of Malaysia’s consumer-led loan growth in the past five years.

It preferred liquid banks and upgraded HLBB and Maybank to “overweight” from “neutral”.

- By Ng Bei Shan/The Star/Asia News Network

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Bank Negara says going forward, the over all growth momentum is expected to be sustained. We are actually quite surprised that Bank...

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Big bosses are watching you !

Tracking device: Asia Insight employee Steven Li conducting a survey near Bugis Junction. He is using a tablet which has mobile data collection software, allowing his employers to track his work patterns. - The Straits Times / Asia News Network

BIG bosses are watching. Firms are keeping a closer eye on their employees’ punctuality and efficiency – thanks, or no thanks, to technology.

Larger companies are investing in advanced software in mobile devices that can detect location – and record the time taken to complete tasks.

And smaller firms have found that run-of-the-mill but inexpensive instant messaging apps can also be used to monitor workers. Employees of local property valuation firm GSK Global, for example, when out at meetings are told to send a picture of the venue to their departments’ WhatsApp group chat within 15 minutes of the designated time. Those who are consistently late will get their bonuses docked.

Bosses say they are not spying on their staff. Rather, they want to improve efficiency.

GSK Global boss Eric Tan said: “I want my staff to be punctual so they can be done with work earlier and go home by 8pm.”

Market research consultancy Asia Insight chief executive Pearly Tan agrees.

Her firm engaged local tech start-up Epsilon Mobile earlier this year to develop mobile data collection software that records the time employees take to interview people and co­m­plete surveys, among other things.

It costs “a few hundred thousand” but Tan said it was worth it. The software helps the company spot patterns in the way the surveyors work, and also intervenes to reduce errors and boost productivity.

Her firm plans to use the software, which is enabled with Global Positioning System (GPS), to detect its employees’ location.

Epsilon Mobile boss William Vo said besides market researchers, organisations such as voluntary welfare groups and chain restaurants had also shown interest in his data collection software.

Similarly, tech company FPT Asia Pacific provides a few fast-moving consumer goods firms with GPS-enabled data collection software to monitor roving sales staff.

While most surveillance techno­logy now focuses on tracking location and time, firms may soon be able to use it to monitor their wor­kers’ interactions with customers.

Local tech company FXMedia is in talks with some retailer groups to roll out a visitor analysis system in stores. The software detects the number of customers and consu­mers’ emotions using webcams.

However, bosses admit there are some drawbacks to using workplace surveillance technology; workers face extra stress and loss of privacy. — The Straits Times / Asia News Network

Related article:

Monday, July 14, 2014

US biased in push for S.China Sea ‘freeze’

U.S. Navy personnel raise their flag during CARAT 2014. The United States and the Philippines kicked off joint naval exercises in the South China Sea near waters claimed by Beijing, amid tense territorial rows between China and its neighbors. AP/Noel Celis

Speaking at the US Department of State's Annual South China Sea Conference on Friday, US Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael Fuchs said the claimants to territorial rights in the region should "freeze" provocative actions and "could recommit not to establish new outposts" as agreed in the Declaration of Conduct (DoC) signed between ASEAN countries and China in 2002. These suggestions appear to be fair, but even Western media has opined that this is aimed at deterring China. Only the day before, the US Senate had accused China of aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and urged China for restraint.

If the US called for a "freeze" right after the DoC was signed, that would be all to the good. But Vietnam and the Philippines have since then been exploiting oil and gas within the nine-dash line. The US came up with such views just as China started its own oil explorations. Its partiality is more than obvious.

It's worth pointing out that the US is not a claimant to territorial rights in the South China Sea or a stakeholder in solving territorial disputes. It is a principle that the disputes should be solved by the parties involved.

Yet the US is a superpower which believes every international or regional affair has something to do with it. The Philippines and Vietnam want to draw support from the US to confront China. But the US needs to know that its interference has no basis in international law. If the US is sincere in making a contribution to peace in the South China Sea, it should take into consideration the interests and demands of all parties, including China.

But we doubt Washington's intentions. So far, its moves regarding the South China Sea are like the extension of its pivot to Asia strategy. Many Chinese people feel that the US is making trouble through intervention.

Washington's latest suggestions are a trap for Beijing. This timing is not beneficial for China. If China refuses to accept the suggestions, it can hardly convince the world. This is a farce initiated by the US which wants China to suffer the consequences.

Therefore, China should think about how to mediate with the US to prevent it from irritating us while reaping the gain. China should let the US eat some unexpected bitterness.

Western opinion will quibble about the South China Sea issue for a long time, which will be a challenge for China's diplomacy in Southeast Asia. Safeguarding sovereignty and maintaining a peripheral strategic environment are both important for China. China should try to make a balance.

China must be confident and stick to the following principles: It has the right to safeguard its sovereignty and it has no intention to go to war. China is a regional power that has the initiative to control the conflict. Meanwhile, any country that confronts China has to bear the consequences. Finally, China will not make trouble, but equally is unafraid of any trouble.

Source: Global Times Published: 2014-7-14 0:18:01

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Stem education for life to reach new heights

It is necessary for the nation to embrace Stem education in order to reach new heights.

IT is imperative that schools and educational institutions do their part to emphasise the importance of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (Stem) to meet the country’s educational objectives for future growth and development and to meet the nation’s 2020 vision.

Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman vice president (Internationalisation and Academic Development) Prof Dr Ewe Hong Tat

This is especially after Malaysia was ranked in the bottom third of 74 participating countries, in the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) below the international and OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) average.

It is with this in mind that Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR ) is taking the initiative to promote and create awareness on the importance of Stem education among students and the community.

In the series of articles from UTAR, Part 1 and Part 2  ( STEM education for life, part 2) introduces Stem and why such education is necessary for the nation’s development and what the University is doing to promote it.

Engineering gains

During the turn of the century, the National Academy of Engineering of USA (http://www.nae.edu/) did a detailed study and listed the top 20 engineering achievements of the 20th century (www.greatachievements.org) that changed the world.

Of these the prominent ones were computers, aviation, the Internet, air-conditioning and refrigeration, highways, health technologies, laser and fibre optics, water supply and distribution; among many others. Consumers used them daily without realising that these were the results of engineering research and innovation that propelled the world forward.

Therefore, for a nation to continue to develop and grow, it is important to promote and use Stem education as the foundation and propeller of growth.

After all, it is through Stem education that design, discovery and inventions that bring forth life-changing growth and development, have been introduced.

In the 21st century, new innovations have emerged such as renewable energy and resources, Internet of Things (IoT), advanced materials and biotechnology which need new talents to continue to drive growth.

Without a strong foundation in Stem education, these talents will not be groomed to excel.

In the Malaysia Education Blueprint 2013 – 2025 (Chapter 3), Malaysia’s performance in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (Timss) Eighth Grade Mathematics and Science against other countries over three cycles (1999, 2003, 2007), showed that in 2007, there was a marked downturn in both Mathematics and Science scores. In 2003, Malaysia obtained 10th position out of 45 countries for Mathematics and 20th position out of 45 countries for Science.

In 2007, Malaysia obtained 20th position out of 48 countries for Mathematics and 21st position out of 48 countries for Science, thus indicating a declining performance in students’ scores for both subjects.

Malaysia participated in the Pisa assessment for the first time in the Pisa 2009 + exercise and was ranked in the bottom third for Reading, Mathematics and Science, well below the International and OECD average in all the three areas, lower than Thailand.

Therefore, there is a great need to raise the interest and standards in Stem among students, educationists and policy makers in our country to ensure that we remain competitive and relevant in the world market in future.

The National Science Foundation, a leading authority in scientific research and funding in the United States, defines Stem in a broader definition which includes subjects in the fields of engineering, chemistry, computer and information technology science, geosciences, life sciences, mathematical sciences, physics and astronomy, and social sciences (which includes anthropology, economics, psychology and sociology), Stem Education and learning research.

As indicated in the education blueprint, the case for increased emphasis on Stem education would need several initiatives and steps to be taken across schools in the country.

It is imperative that we need to develop strong fundamentals in Stem starting from primary schools and to create and sustain interests in this discipline.

For a start, it would be a good idea to allow a lot more experiments and hands-on projects in Stem subjects.

Experiential learning 

If we want to promote a society with higher order thinking skills, the exam-oriented paper and format-based school exams need to be complemented with more practical and experiential learning.

Learning science subjects through a textbook is nothing compared to the trial and discovery methods of science experiments.

Through the process of experimenting, trials and discovery, students think, analyse and deduce before coming to a solution; all these thinking processes help to develop higher order thinking.

Students need to learn actively to seek creative solutions and applications and to be inquisitive to foster inventions.

The recent announcement by the Education Ministry to reintroduce practical exams for the SPM science subjects of Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Additional Science in 2015, is a move in the right direction.

In addition, the media radio could play a bigger role in promoting Stem.

There could be more focus on Stem and related topics for schoolchildren and even the community, if more films and documentaries on Stem were shown, and how it is important for national growth.

Simple videos could be made on how our everyday resources of food, water, air and energy require qualified engineers, agriculturists, scientists and more to ensure quality, production, convenience and sustainability for the future.

The influence of the internet is pervasive and with Wi-Fi and broadband services increasingly available in many homes and public places, more information can be made available and accessed online.

To promote interest in Stem, perhaps students could be guided towards self-directed learning after school.

Several educational websites support such learning. Massive Open Online Courses (Mooc) are widely available through the web with unlimited participation and many websites provide course materials such as videos, readings and problem-solving papers, while others have more interactive user forums that allow discussions and networking to build a community for students, teachers, professors, and tutors to seek support.

Among the more reliable websites for online courses for students are three more prominent ones such as www.edx.org, www.khanacademy.org and www.coursera.org

EdX offers free online classes and Mooc from the world’s best universities such as Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Australian National University and the University of California, Berkeley on subject contents including Computer Science, Mathematics, Sciences, Medicine and more than 200 courses that students could take online and be awarded a certificate.

The support from these reputable universities gives credibility to the courses and is ideal for students at home.

Khan Academy also provides free online materials and resources in mathematics, biology, chemistry, physics and even finance and history; mostly of secondary school level that are easily available to students, teachers and anyone interested in learning about simple educational topics which makes learning more fun.

Another website worth looking up is www.coursera.org which provides free online classes from more than 80 top universities (such as Stanford University, Yale University and Princeton University) and organisations around the world on topics covering a wide range of disciplines including science, engineering, medicine and social sciences.

A host of varied educational information is available on the web and most are on Stem subjects and topics that are taught in our schools.

Many of the topics in these websites also talk about scientific principles which are applied to everyday things like electrical appliances, transportation, automobiles, food cultivation and processing which are not only educational but also thought-provoking.

The colours and visuals used, the video and notes are all captivating; making learning so much more fun and engaging.

Even the teaching of simple Mathematics in schools is presented methodically and simply with good visuals and commentary.

The advantage of these online courses is that students canrepeat any part as often as they like until they get it right.

These online courses could perhaps be introduced as supplementary learning to students who can log on after school to learn more and cultivate their interests in Stem.

Perhaps parents and teachers alike can also guide students which will be more informative and educational than Facebook and Twitter.

htewe August 2011.jpgContributed by Prof Dr Ewe Hong Tat The Star/Asia News Network

The writer, an AAET Fellow, is the vice-president of the Internationalisation and Academic Development, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR). This article is the first of a two-part series on Stem Education.
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR)
Dr. Ewe Hong Tat
QUALIFICATION 
BEng(Hons)(Mal), S.M. (MIT), PhD(MMU)
POSITION 
Vice President (Internationalisation and Academic Development)
Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Science (FES)
RESEARCH
INTERESTS 
Microwave Remote Sensing, Applied Electromagnetics, Satellite Image Processing, Sensing Network and Intelligent Systems
 CONTACT 
ADDRESS 
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Petaling Jaya Campus),
No. 9, Jalan Bersatu 13/4,
46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, MALAYSIA.
 PHONE 
+(60)-3-7958-2628 ext 7152
FAX 
+(60)-3-7956-1923
 E-MAIL 
eweht@utar.edu.my

HT Ewe received his First Class Honours Bachelor of Engineering degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Malaya, Malaysia in 1992, and S.M. (Master of Science) degree in EECS (Electrical Engineering and Computer Science) from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S.A. in 1994. He obtained his PhD degree from Faculty of Engineering, Multimedia University, Malaysia in 1999. From September 1994 to April 1997, he was with the Electrical Engineering Department, University of Malaya (Malaysia). In May 1997, he joined Multimedia University (Malaysia) in Melaka Campus and was transferred to the Cyberjaya Campus in January 2000 and worked there until Aug 2008. In Sep 2008, he joined Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (UTAR) and is currently a Professor in the Faculty of Engineering and Science (FES).


 
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Saturday, July 12, 2014

Is timing right for Bank Negara Malaysia interest rate increased now!?

Bank Negara says going forward, the over all growth momentum is expected to be sustained.



We are actually quite surprised that Bank Negara chose to make this measure this month!

AFTER keeping interest rates low for the past three years to support economic growth, Bank Negara has finally decided that it is the time to “normalise” interest rates.

In response to firm growth prospects and expecting inflationary pressure to continue, the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% on Thursday.

This is the first hike since May 2011 and the reasons, although not spelled out, were broadly hinted towards containing inflation and curbing rising household debt.

Most economists are unperturbed with the move, as the central bank has hinted of an imminent hike in OPR after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in May.

According to a Bloomberg survey, 15 out of 21 economists estimated a hike.

“Amid firm growth prospects and with inflation remaining above its long-run average, the MPC decided to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation,” Bank Negara says in a statement.

The economy grew by 6.2% year-on-year in the first quarter with private consumption up 7.1% and private investment expanding by 14.1%.

The prolonged period of low interest rates in Malaysia has been supportive on the domestic economy, hence the recent rate hike has sparked the question whether the time is right for a hike amid a recovery in the global economy.

“Despite higher costs of living, stable income growth and favourable labour-market conditions are expected to buoy private consumption growth,” said CIMB Research in a report.

It expects the country’s economic growth to increase to 5.5% this year and 5.2% in 2015.

Bank Negara remained positive on Malaysia’s growth outlook, riding on the back of recovery in exports, robust investment activity and anchored by private consumption.

Financial imbalances

“Going forward, the overall growth momentum is expected to be sustained.

“Exports will continue to benefit from the recovery in the advanced economies and from regional demand. Investment activity is projected to remain robust, led by the private sector,” says Bank Negara.

There are a lot of factors that could derail the recovery in the world’s economy, including a risk in China’s growth slowing and a slower recovery in Europe and the United States.

“We are actually quite surprised that Bank Negara chose to make this measure this month. The fact that the latest normalisation drive would push the ringgit higher and that puzzles us as export momentum may decelerate in the next few months due to waning competitiveness,” says M&A Securities.

Nonetheless, it believes the economy is capable of absorbing the adjustment.

Prior to the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, Malaysia’s OPR stood at 3.5%. The country’s OPR was subsequently cut down to as low as 2% to support the domestic economy during the height of the global downturn in early 2009 before being raised gradually to the present level.

Between November 2008 and February 2009, Bank Negara had cut the OPR by 175 basis points in response to the global economic crisis. “The rise in OPR will likely to improve Malaysia’s attractiveness amongst foreign investors, leading a stronger capital inflows, lower bond yields and appreciating ringgit,” says AllianceDBS Research chief economist Manokaran Mottain in a report.

He says that since the previous MPC meeting in May, the market has been influenced by this expectation.

Year-to-date, the ringgit had rallied to RM3.172 per US dollar on July 9, registering a 2.06% gain. However, at the close yesterday, the ringgit closed lower at RM3.21 against the greenback.

The central bank also highlights that the increase in the OPR is to ease the risk of financial imbalances, which may effect the economy’s growth prospect.

“At the new level of the OPR, the stance of the monetary policy remains supportive of the economy,” Bank Negara says.

The OPR is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara. It is the interest rate at which a bank lends to another bank.

A rate hike would have an impact on businesses and consumers, as changes in the OPR would be passed on through changes in the base lending rate (BLR).

Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz was reported as saying that signs of financial imbalances would also factor into policy decisions, because a prolonged period of accommodation could encourage investors to misprice risk and misallocate resources.

“Higher interest rates should help to ensure a positive real rate of return for deposit savings and deter households from turning to riskier investments,” says CIMB Research.

The low interest rate environment has resulted in rising household debt level, which reached a record of 86.8% of gross domestic product at the end of last year.

“Although the increase in the OPR will likely have some impact on consumer spending and business activities, it will help to moderate the increase in prices,” says RHB Research Institute.

It expects inflation to moderate but to remain high, hovering above 3%.

Most economists are expecting OPR to remain unchanged at 3.25% for the rest of the year, although price pressures are likely to remain.

They say Bank Negara may resume its interest rate normalisation only next year.

“The price pressure is likely to remain, in view of further subsidy rationalisation (another round of fuel-price hike this year),” CIMB Research says.

Muted impact

“Another 25bps hike will crimp domestic demand,” Manokaran opines, adding that there are other measures that may be taken if household debt continues to grow at a worrying pace.

Malaysia is the first country in the South-East Asia to increase its benchmark rate on the back of improve confidence in exports growth and robust investment activity.

According to CIMB Research, Malaysia’s equity market has already priced in an interest rate hike following the May MPC meeting.

The research house says while the is negative for equities, the impact on the stock market should be muted as the increase is minimal.

“Rate hikes are negative for cyclical sectors such as property and auto, as well as consumer stocks due to lower disposable income,” it says.

In the property sector, rising interest rates would increase mortgage payment and reduce affordability.

However, CIMB opines that the impact of a gradual rise in interest rates will be mitigated as the key drivers of property demand are the overall economy and the stock market.

“But the overall impact should be muted as net gearing for corporate Malaysia is less than 10%,” it adds.

CIMB notes that the banking sector will benefit from the rate hike due to a positive re-pricing gap between lending and deposit rates.

“We estimate that a 25bps rise in OPR could enhance banks’ earnings by 1% to 2%.

“This would outweigh any slowdown in loan growth in an environment of higher interest rates, while asset quality is expected to be unaffected,” it says.

Contributed by Intan Farhana Zainul/The Star/Asia News Network

No justification for interest rate hike: Kenanga

Investment bank research head cites expectations of softer economic growth in H2

 
Adib Rawi Yahya/theSun

KUALA LUMPUR: Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd has taken the contrarian view and believes that an interest rate hike is unlikely to materialise today, saying that it would be unjustified given jittery economic fundamentals that would not be able to take such a hike.

Most analysts opine that Bank Negara is likely to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) for the first time since May 2011 today, even though they tend to differ on the quantum of increase, between 25 basis points (bps) and 50 bps. The OPR currently stands at 3%.

Bank Negara is scheduled to hold its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting this evening.

Kenanga Investment Bank deputy head of research Wan Suhaimie Saidie (pix) opined that this is not the right time to raise interest rate as economic growth is expected to trend lower in the second half compared with the first half of the year.

"Due to softer external demand and slow down in other parts of the world, I don't think Bank Negara will raise interest rate, unless they revise the gross domestic product (GDP) higher," he told a media briefing here yesterday.

Wan Suhaimie said as Malaysia is an open economy, the interest rate outlook will be externally dependent, whereby it has been observed that Bank Negara would shift towards tightening mode when the global manufacturing PMI breaches 54.0.

"However, it may take at least another three to six months before the index breaches 54.0," he said, adding that there is little reason for Bank Negara to raise the OPR for the rest of the year.

Wan Suhaimie believes with the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) next year, the local economy may even slow down for at least two quarters, making the case for an interest hike far from compelling.

Kenanga expects GDP in the first half to be close to 6%, while second half is projected to average by 5.2%, with a full year growth rate of 5.5%.

Wan Suhaimie said instead of raising the interest rate, Bank Negara could take additional macroprudential measures to address imbalances in the financial system, such as reducing the loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio.

According to data compiled by Kenanga, Bank Negara is one of the most conservative central banks in the world, with only 10 rate adjustments made over the past 10 years.

M&A Securities concurred with Kenanga on the unlikelihood of a hike in OPR today albeit for a different reason.

"Policy decisions would need to get the cabinet endorsement first. Being a caring government that would like to avoid political backlash, we think that the government would prefer Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to defer that to the September MPC meeting," it said in an economic report yesterday.

It explained that on the back of rising cost of living and the upcoming stress of the goods and services tax, the last thing BNM and hence, the government would want to see is the adjustment be a burden the people.

"As 55% to 60% of Malaysian population, as in the Muslims would be observing the month of Ramadan of which their spending would increase, the government would risk its reputation if it proceeds with a policy hike. There is a small chance that the government would execute this in our opinion," said M&A analyst Rosnani Rasul.

It said impact to the ringgit would also be more conducive if policy rates get adjusted in September and that an adjustment of 25 bps would suffice.

With no hike in the OPR, volatility in the market will continue and is likely to see the ringgit fall back to 3.20 to 3.30, Wan Suhaimie opined.

The ringgit has been rising lately, surging to as high as 3.1860 early this month in anticipation of an interest rate hike.

Contributed by Lee Weng Khuen sunbiz@thesundaily.com 10 July 2014

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Thursday, July 10, 2014

China - US candid dialogue aims at easing anxiety



China-US S&ED: Over 90 outcomes to boost China-US relations

China and the United States have achieved over ninety outcomes from the 6th Strategic and Economic D...
 

China-U.S. annual dialogue opens, President Xi gives speech

The sixth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue has opened here in Beijing. The two-day ...

The sixth round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the fifth China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchange are being held in Beijing these two days. At a time when this bilateral relationship remains subtle and both have speculated about each other's strategic outlook, such high-level dialogue offers a chance for them to listen to their counterparts to ease anxieties brought by problems between them.

The strategists and public opinion in both countries have made thorough analyses of bilateral ties, yet they still fail to offer grounded conclusions. The fundamental reason is that in the history of international politics, such a big power relationship has never existed before.

The Chinese leadership envisioned the notion of a new type of great power relations, which the US leadership has accepted. The positive attitude of both has injected hope to the 21st century.

There will be more friction between the two. There will be twists and turns as China rises and the US tries to maintain its hegemony. Both can easily highlight a concrete problem, while high-level dialogue is needed to ease the speculation in both societies.

China's rise seems to be the most uncertain factor for the Sino-US relationship and the political pattern of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century. A comprehensive understanding of China's rise will help lay the foundation of this bilateral relationship.

The driving forces of China's rise come from the demand of the Chinese people. No one can stop this process. China and the US should build up an open system that can accommodate China's rise and soften the impact of China's rise on the politics of Asia-Pacific and other regions.

Many view the territorial disputes between China and its neighboring countries as its ambition for expansion. The US should be able to see that China has no intention to create new geopolitical patterns through these disputes, nor would it make use of the conflicts to expand its strategic space.

Even when China has no intention, its impact has been felt. Meanwhile, US support for Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam has caused some effect on China's neighbors. These two factors should not interact with each other to intensify mutual strategic mistrust.

The significance of the heart-to-heart dialogue is the same as that of establishing a crisis-management mechanism. It may take a while before the two realize great power relations, but China-US relations are fundamentally different from ties between the US and the former Soviet Union.

There will be continuing pessimistic comments from the public in both countries. It is vital that both governments remain determined. It will be a significant political achievement if the two develop a relationship that is different from the one under the Yalta system during the last century.

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-7-9

Related:
 

Dedicated to new relationship

[2014-07-10 07:26] Washington's support for the true troublemakers, on the other hand, has convinced many that it is plotting to contain a rising China.

 

 

Dialogue to disperse suspicions

[2014-07-09 07:29] The new type of major-country relationship, once a favored catchphrase of well-wishers, is no longer what it was immediately after the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents last summer.

 

 

Attitude to the war matters

[2014-07-08 07:27] History is the best textbook. That is what President Xi Jinping said at the ceremony to mark the 77th anniversary of the Chinese People's War Against Japanese Aggression on Monday.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Watch Japan's surrender Video; Beware of Japan's evil designs!


China publishes video of Japan´s surrender for first time


Beware of Japan's evil designs


The volatile political situation in Europe (and partly in West Asia) led to the Great War 100 years ago, with the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Germany (or the Central Forces) on one side and Britain, France and Russia (or the Allies) on the other. What started essentially as a "European war" soon turned into a world war with the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria joining the Central Forces and Italy, the United States and Japan joining the Allies.

The international situation today is radically different from what it was 100 years ago. Regional conflicts do exist, but there is no conflict between two major powers or blocs that seems unlikely to be resolved through talks. The main contradictions and conflicts today are the ones between the sole superpower, the US, and emerging powers like China and Russia. Despite the comparative decline in its power, the US is not willing to yield its self-perceived sphere of influence to China or Russia. But despite being uncomfortable with the idea of seeing a powerful China, the US has agreed to establish a "new type of major-power relationship" with China.

China is surrounded by complicated maritime disputes with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, but these countries seem to be acting on the instigation of the US, and are not in a position to engage in a large-scale military conflict or war with China. In fact, these countries' attitude toward China depends on the direction Sino-US relations take.

About 120 years ago, Japan launched an aggressive war against China, which ended in the collapse of the Chinese navy and the signing of the unequal Treaty of Shimonoseki, which forced the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) rulers to cede some of China's territories and pay reparations to Japan. The main reason China suffered such a fiasco was that, as a weakening feudal country, it was not prepared to fight an asymmetrical war with an emerging capitalist power.

China, along with the rest of the world, has undergone considerable changes since then. Today China is the world's second-largest economy and one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Despite that - and despite possessing nuclear weapons - China is still a peace-loving nation striving to build a harmonious world.

After being defeated in World War II, Japan has had to follow a pacifist Constitution, written with the help of Allies, mainly the US. And coupled with the economic downturn since the 1980s and the international community's stipulation that allows it to only develop its Self-Defense Forces - as opposed to a full-fledged military - Japan today is in a position that is totally different from the late 19th century.

Yet Japan has taken a dangerous step toward militarization by reinterpreting Article 9 of the Constitution. Since the move allows Japan to dispatch troops overseas to take part in "conflicts", it should be seen as a warning not only to China but also to the international community as a whole.

With the peaceful rise of China and escalation of Sino-Japanese disputes, Japan has begun shifting its strategic focus southwestward. A series of military moves by Tokyo in recent years, such as the deployment of missiles on its southernmost island, Miyako-jima, which is closest to China's Diaoyu Islands and the stationing of the most advanced missiles on the southern tip of Kyushu Island, indicate that Japan's military policy is targeted mainly at China.

Japan also plans to build military bases on Miyako-jima, Amami-shima and Ishigaki-jima, its three southern islands nearest to the Diaoyu Islands, and deploy outpost forces there. During a recent visit to Miyako-jima, a senior Japanese defense official told local officials that "the local defense vacuum" should be filled in.

Japan's military maneuvers in Miyako-jima, some 2,000 kilometers from Tokyo but only about 200 km from China's Taiwan, are obviously aimed at strengthening its military might to counter China, especially over the Sino-Japanese maritime disputes. This is how a recent Russian TV program summed up the situation.

Japan has also set up a joint land-, air-and sea-based monitoring system over various straits. For example, every time a Chinese ship crosses the Tsugaru Strait, it will be under surveillance of Japanese warships, helicopters and P-3C aircraft.

While deploying its armed forces in its southwestern region, Japan has unashamedly presented a different face to the international community. For example, it has repeatedly complained that "China's warplanes dangerously approach Japan's (planes) " and that "China's warships lock their fire control radar at Japan's (ships) ", to seek sympathy of the international community. By beefing up forces using the "China threat" theory, Japan has exposed its ulterior motive, that is, it is preparing for a possible war with China, even though such a war is not likely to break out.

Given the complicated international security situation, China should remain vigilant against Japan's military designs and continue its efforts to achieve peaceful sustainable development and build a harmonious world in a bid to play a bigger role on the global stage.

By Li Daguang (China Daily)/Asia News Network
The author is a professor at the National Defense University, People's Liberation Army.

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Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Deals mark close relations between Germany and China



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AT A GLANCE
Deals signed during Angela Merkel’s China visit
• Volkswagen aims to establish two plants in Qingdao and Tianjin with an investment of $2.7 billion.
• Airbus Group will sell 123 helicopters to Chinese companies for general aviation.
• Air China and Lufthansa are in talks that could lead the German and Chinese carriers to form a revenue-sharing joint venture.
• The two countries are planning a joint pilot project concerning Passive House, an energy-efficient method of construction, in Qingdao.
• China will take part as a partner country in the 2015 CeBIT, the world’s leading expo for information technology, in Hanover.
China and Germany will strengthen exchanges in the financial sector and upgrade longstanding cooperation in manufacturing with a slew of deals signed on Monday.

Beijing will grant Berlin an 80 billion yuan ($12.9 billion) quota under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors plan to accelerate the internationalization of the Chinese currency, reinforcing Frankfurt's status as a yuan clearing center in Europe, in addition to London and Paris.

A high-level financial dialogue will also be set up to boost financial cooperation, Premier Li Keqiang said at a news conference with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

President Xi Jinping told Merkel during their meeting, "The series of agreements you have signed during your visit to China will bring new impetus to bilateral ties."

Xi suggests the two countries take bigger steps in their cooperation, with manufacturing industry as the core.

Merkel said Germany would improve its investment environment and attract more Chinese investors.

She is accompanied by a high-profile business delegation including executives from Siemens, Volkswagen, Airbus, Luft-hansa and Deutsche Bank.

Apart from the financial deal, the countries also signed deals on automobiles, aviation and telecommunications.

China approved London joining the RQFII plan in October, granting investors the right to use the yuan to buy up to 80 billion yuan worth of mainland stocks, bonds and money market instruments.

It later granted Paris the same quota in March.

Luxembourg is also lobbying Beijing for the same treatment after it signed an agreement with China's central bank for yuan clearing arrangements on June 28.

Li Jianjun, a financial analyst at Bank of China's International Finance Research Institute, said the competition for offshore yuan centers among major European cities is a healthy feature of cooperation.

"The renminbi is still at the initial stage of internationalization. We are expanding the offshore yuan pie and setting up a global network with overseas financial markets. Allowing qualified foreign institutional investors to use the yuan will benefit China and other countries," Li said.

Chinese leaders are likely to take Frankfurt as a core center for renminbi clearing services in continental Europe, while establishing secondary yuan clearing sites in Paris and Luxembourg, Li said.

"We cannot cover a wide range and a large amount of renminbi-related businesses with only one center," Li said. "With Frankfurt as a leading offshore yuan-trading city, we will create a nice layout for renminbi internationalization in Europe."

In the first five months of 2014, Germany's direct investment in China reached $810 million, or 30 percent of the $2.69 billion investment in China by all members of the EU, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

In 2013, two-way trade between the countries reached $161 billion, taking up almost one-third of total China-EU trade.

China is Germany's largest trading partner in the Asia-Pacific region.

Merkel's visit, her seventh trip to China, came only four months after the last meeting between leaders of the two nations. President Xi Jinping visited Germany in March.

Before flying to Beijing, Merkel stopped at Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province.

Merkel said she felt the dynamics and development of southwestern China in Chengdu, where urbanization is urgently needed to catch up with coastal cities.

"China's vigor stays not only on the coastline but also in the central and west area," she said.

Sebastian Heilmann, president of the Mercator Institute for China Studies, said in a recent interview with Deutsche Welle: "Germany provides China with products it needs for industrialization, for example ,machines, specialty chemicals and electronic goods. On the other hand, Chinese consumer goods with very reasonable prices are in high demand in Germany."

Ren Baiming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation at the Ministry of Commerce, said Germany, as well as the European Union at large, need a driving force from the outside for growth, and the fast-growing Chinese market meets that need.

Wu Jiao contributed to this story. - By ZHAO YINAN and JIANG XUEQING (China Daily)
/Asia News Network

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